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Energy scenarios for Australia under carbon pricing and implications for the Hunter
Paul Graham
Carbon Futures Theme Leader
Exploring the Future Energy Role of the Hunter Region
15 June 2011
Energy Transformed Flagship
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Presentation outline
• Carbon price range
• Changing perspectives on the impact of carbon pricing on coal demand
• Australia’s power sector
• Transport fuel opportunities
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Carbon price profiles
Source: Adapted from Commonwealth of Australia (2008)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CP-Low CP-High
A$2005/tCO2-e
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Modelling found Australian coal production will grow with and without a carbon price – How?
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Prod
ucti
on in
dex
2010
=100
Reference case
CP-Low
CP-High
Answer 1: Developing country demand to hold up
Answer 2: CCS becomes large part of electricity generation mix
Source: Adapted from Commonwealth of Australia (2008)
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Next 10-20 years – coal demand may be supported by developing country demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Rest of world Developed coalition Reference 550ppm pathway
Gt CO2-e Gt CO2-e
Contraction & convergence towards common emission per capita target
Allows for developed countries to continue to increase emissions in the medium term
Source: Garnaut Review (2008),Commonwealth of Australia (2008), CSIRO analysis
One of many possible abatement sharing arrangements
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International electricity generation – CP-Low
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
Ele
ctri
city
gen
erat
ed (G
WY
r)
Ocean current/tidal
Wave
Hydro
Conventional geothermal
Hot fractured rocks
Wind
Large scale PV
Rooftop PV
Solar thermal
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas open cycle
Gas with CCS
Gas combined cycle
Black coal with CCS
Black coal combined cycle
Black coal, pf
Brown coal with CCS
Brown coal combined cycle
Brown coal, pf
Source: CSIRO projection
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Levelised Cost of Energy – CP-Low
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030
$28/tCO2-e $52/tCO2-e $28/tCO2-e $52/tCO2-e $28/tCO2-e $52/tCO2-e $28/tCO2-e $52/tCO2-e $28/tCO2-e $52/tCO2-e
LCO
E ($
/MW
h)
Fuel
O&M
Capital
CO2 costs
CO2 storage
Black coal pf
Black coal with CCS
Combined cycle gas turbine Wind
Solar
Source: CSIRO
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Australian electricity generation CP-Low
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h
Hydro
Wave
Hot f ractured rocks
Wind
Roof top PV
Solar
Biomass
DG
Gas peak
Gas CCS
Gas combined cycle
Black coal CCS
Black coal pf
Brown coal CCS
Brown coal pf
Source: CSIRO projection
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Australian electricity generation – CP-High
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h
Hydro
Hot f ractured rocks
Wind
Roof top PV
Solar
Biomass
DG
Gas peak
Gas CCS
Gas combined cycle
Black coal CCS
Black coal pf
Brown coal CCS
Brown coal pf
Source: CSIRO projection
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Transport
• Hunter• Small to mid-sized cities
• Low density
• High passenger vehicle use
• Significant rail freight
• GHG and energy saving opportunities in this region will need to suit the car and rail freight
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Transport fuel consumption CP-Low
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
Electricity
Natural gas
LPG
Biodiesel
Diesel - GTL
Diesel - CTL
Diesel
Ethanol
Petrol
Bio-derived-Jet
Fossil-Jet
Biofuels, electricity & LNG likely to expand
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Point where electric vehicles are broadly emission saving
Source: Assume 0.18kWh/km times retail electricity emissions intensity, ALPF & Green Vehicle Guide
Light vehicle fleet average ~215 gCO2e/km
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Reference CPRS -5 CPRS -15 Garnaut -10 Garnaut -25
gCO2e/km gCO2e/km
Toyota Yaris / Ford Festiva (petrol)
Ford Festiva (diesel)
Household consuming renewable electricity
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Key messages
• In facing a potentially carbon constrained world coal trade may still continue to expand• Developing country demand may continue if they successfully argue to allow their emissions to rise for a period
• If successful, coal with CCS will allow coal to deliver low emission base load power
• Other local opportunities• Renewable technologies and research• Vehicle electrification, HFR, biofuels, roof-top solar
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Thank you
Paul GrahamCarbon Futures Theme Leader
Phone: +61 2 49606061Email: [email protected]
Contact UsPhone: +61 3 9545 2176Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au