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Mapping, Analysis & projection ofEnergy Supply Resources of Pakistan
Dr. AHMAD HUSSAINNational MEAs Secretariat,P & D Division, Islamabad
[email protected] 11, 2011
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INTRODUCTION
Energy supply & demand1. Energy supply & economic growth
Back ground Information1. Pakistan Energy Scenario2. Economic Growth
Main Emphasis1. Main Energy Supply resources of Pakistan2. Analysis of Supply resources3. Energy supply model for Pakistan
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Energy Data
Energy Supply Resources data1. Pakistan energy year book 20092. Base year 2009
3. End year 20304. Input Variable for Energy Model5. Analysis of Supply Resources6. Projection of Energy Resources
7. Future Planning
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Current Energy Scenario
Total Energy Supply was 62.522 Million Tonnes of OilEquivalent (MTOE ) in 2009
Total Primary energy supplies 2009 Final Energy demands in 2009
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Energy Supply Resources
Natural gas resources are 30MTOE.Crude oil resources are 20MTOEThe LPG, Coal, Hydro, Nuclear are the other
important sources of primary energy suppliers.
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Analysis of supply Scenario Case
Primary Energy Supply
0
5
10
15
20
25
3035
O i l
G a s
L P G
C o a l
H y d r o E l e c t r i c
i t y
N u c l e a
r E l e c
t r i c i t y
I m p o r t e
d E l e c
t r i c i t y
Source
Q u a n
t i t y ( M T O E )
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Analysis of Energy Consumption
Energy Consumption by Source
0
2
4
6
810
12
14
16
18
Oil Gas Coal Electricity LPG
Source
Q u a n
t i t y ( M T O E )
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Crude Oil Reserves
0
2468
101214161820
Balochistan KPK Punjab Sindh
Province
R e s e r v e s (
M T O E )
Crude Oil Cumulative Production, Province Wise
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Petroleum Product Consumption
Petroleum Product Consumption
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Natural Gas Reserves, Province wise
Natural Gas Resources
0.0000.0500.1000.1500.2000.2500.3000.3500.400
Balochistan Punjab KPK Sindh
Province
Q u a n
t i t y
( M T O E )
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Natural Gas Consumption
Natural Gas Consumption
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Coal Reserves
Coal Reserves, Province wise
0
20000
4000060000
80000100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
B a l o c h
i s t a n
K P K
P u n j a
b S i n
d h T h a r
Region
T o t a l C o a l R e s e r v e s ( M T O E
)
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Crude Oil Projections
0
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.009
.
2 0 0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 5 2 0 2 7 2 0 2 9 2 0 3 1 2 0 3 3 2 0 3 5
Years
Q u a n t
i t y
( M T O E )
Crude oil Projection
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Crude Oil Projection Province wise
0
0.0005
0.001
0.0015
0.002
0.0025
0.003
0.0035
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 7
2 0 2 9
2 0 3 1
2 0 3 3
2 0 3 5
Years
Q u a n
t i t y ( M T O E )
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 7
2 0 2 9
2 0 3 1
2 0 3 3
2 0 3 5
Years
Q u a n
t i t y ( M T O E )
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 7
2 0 2 9
2 0 3 1
2 0 3 3
2 0 3 5
Yea rs
Q u a n t i t y
( M T O E )
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 7
2 0 2 9
2 0 3 1
2 0 3 3
2 0 3 5
Years
Q u a n
t i t y
( M T O E )
Crude Oil Projections in Baluchistan Crude Oil Projections in KPK
Crude Oil Projections in Punjab Crude Oil Projections in Sindh
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Natural Gas Projections in Pakistan
Natural Gas Projection
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 7
2 0 2 9
2 0 3 1
2 0 3 3
2 0 3 5
Yea rs
Q u a n
t i t y
( M T O E )
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Natural Gas Projection Province wise
Natural Gas Projections in Baluchistan Natural Gas Projections in KPK
Natural Gas Projections in Punjab Natural Gas Projections in Sindh
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 7
2 0 2 9
2 0 3 1
2 0 3 3
2 0 3 5
Years
Q u a n
t i t y
( M T O E )
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.0250.03
0.035
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 7
2 0 2 9
2 0 3 1
2 0 3 3
2 0 3 5
Yea rs
Q u a n
t i t y ( M T O E )
00.0005
0.0010.0015
0.0020.0025
0.0030.0035
0.0040.0045
0.005
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 7
2 0 2 9
2 0 3 1
2 0 3 3
2 0 3 5
Yea rs
Q u
a n t i t y
( M T O E )
0
0.0001
0.0002
0.0003
0.0004
0.0005
0.0006
0.0007
0.0008
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 7
2 0 2 9
2 0 3 1
2 0 3 3
2 0 3 5
Years
Q u a n
t i t y ( M T O E )
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1. It is evident that in order to meet the future demands ofenergy it is important to build new reservoir of energy asthe conventional sources are depleting at abrupt pace.
2. The dependency on crude oil should be minimized in order
to secure energy security & import of oil which is veryexpensive.
3. The vastly available coal reserves should be aggressivelyused as energy carrier in the future.
4. There is a need to restructure the potential of hydro, solar,wind, agricultural residuals; biomass waste and Municipalwaste so that availability of low cost energy is feasible.
Future Planning