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Empirical Results
Copyright © Software Carpentry 2011
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License
See http://software-carpentry.org/license.html for more information.
Software Engineering
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Seven Years War
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Seven Years War
Actually nine years long
(1754-63)
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Seven Years War
Actually nine years long
(1754-63)
Britain lost 1,512 sailors to enemy action
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Seven Years War
Actually nine years long
(1754-63)
Britain lost 1,512 sailors to enemy action
And almost 100,000 to scurvy
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Seven Years War
Actually nine years long
(1754-63)
Britain lost 1,512 sailors to enemy action
And almost 100,000 to scurvy
Unnecessarily
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
James Lind (1716-94)
1747: first controlled medical
experiment in history
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
James Lind (1716-94)
1747: first controlled medical
experiment in history
• cider • sea water
• vitriol • oranges
• vinegar • barley water
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
James Lind (1716-94)
1747: first controlled medical
experiment in history
• cider • sea water
• vitriol • oranges
• vinegar • barley water
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
James Lind (1716-94)
1747: first controlled medical
experiment in history
• cider • sea water
• vitriol • oranges
• vinegar • barley water
Allowed British ships to be effective on long patrols
during the Napoleonic Wars
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
1950: Hill & Doll study comparing
smokers and non-smokers
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
1950: Hill & Doll study comparing
smokers and non-smokers
1. Smoking causes lung cancer
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
1950: Hill & Doll study comparing
smokers and non-smokers
1. Smoking causes lung cancer
2. Many people would rather fail
than change
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
1950: Hill & Doll study comparing
smokers and non-smokers
1. Smoking causes lung cancer
2. Many people would rather fail
than change
+
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
1950: Hill & Doll study comparing
smokers and non-smokers
1. Smoking causes lung cancer
2. Many people would rather fail
than change
+
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
A rarity in software engineering until the mid 1990s
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
But today, papers describing new tools
or working practices routinely include
results from empirical studies
A rarity in software engineering until the mid 1990s
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
But today, papers describing new tools
or working practices routinely include
results from empirical studies
Particularly ones by young researchers
A rarity in software engineering until the mid 1990s
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
But today, papers describing new tools
or working practices routinely include
results from empirical studies
Particularly ones by young researchers
A rarity in software engineering until the mid 1990s
Many are flawed or incomplete,
but standards are constantly improving
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Unsurprising in retrospect
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Unsurprising in retrospect
Actionable
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
What goes wrong in developers' first job?
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
What goes wrong in developers' first job?
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
What goes wrong in developers' first job?
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Also unsurprising in retrospect, and actionable
What goes wrong in developers' first job?
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Statistics is just one path
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Statistics is just one path
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Statistics is just one path
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Statistics is just one path
Controlled experiments are expensive…
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Statistics is just one path
Controlled experiments are expensive…
…and often eliminate exactly what we want to study
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Statistics is just one path
Controlled experiments are expensive…
…and often eliminate exactly what we want to study
Biggest hurdle is re-education
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Test-Driven Development
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Test-Driven Development
An article of faith among many programmers
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Test-Driven Development
An article of faith among many programmers
Meta-analysis of over 30 studies
No consistent effect
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Test-Driven Development
An article of faith among many programmers
Meta-analysis of over 30 studies
No consistent effect
• Some positive
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Test-Driven Development
An article of faith among many programmers
Meta-analysis of over 30 studies
No consistent effect
• Some positive
• Some negative
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Test-Driven Development
An article of faith among many programmers
Meta-analysis of over 30 studies
No consistent effect
• Some positive
• Some negative
• Some inconclusive
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Test-Driven Development
An article of faith among many programmers
Meta-analysis of over 30 studies
No consistent effect
• Some positive
• Some negative
• Some inconclusive
The better the study, the weaker the signal
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Boehm et al (1975): "Some Experience with
Automated Aids to the Design of Large-Scale
Reliable Software"
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Boehm et al (1975): "Some Experience with
Automated Aids to the Design of Large-Scale
Reliable Software"
…and many more since
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Boehm et al (1975): "Some Experience with
Automated Aids to the Design of Large-Scale
Reliable Software"
…and many more since
timenu
mbe
r /
cost
Most errors introduced during
requirements analysis and design
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Boehm et al (1975): "Some Experience with
Automated Aids to the Design of Large-Scale
Reliable Software"
…and many more since
timenu
mbe
r /
cost
Most errors introduced during
requirements analysis and design
The later they are removed,
the more expensive they are
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Pessimists
Optimists
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
If we tackle the hump in the error injection curve, fewer bugs will get to the expensive part of the fixing curve.
Pessimists
Optimists
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
If we tackle the hump in the error injection curve, fewer bugs will get to the expensive part of the fixing curve.
If we do shorter iterations, the total cost of fixing bugswill go down.
Pessimists
Optimists
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
If we tackle the hump in the error injection curve, fewer bugs will get to the expensive part of the fixing curve.
If we do shorter iterations, the total cost of fixing bugswill go down.
Pessimists
Optimists
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Fagan 1975: "Design and Code Inspections to Reduce
Errors in Program Development"
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Fagan 1975: "Design and Code Inspections to Reduce
Errors in Program Development"
Reading code carefully is the most
cost effective way to find bugs
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Fagan 1975: "Design and Code Inspections to Reduce
Errors in Program Development"
Reading code carefully is the most
cost effective way to find bugs
Cohen 2006: most of the value comes
from the first hour and
the first pair of eyes
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Fagan 1975: "Design and Code Inspections to Reduce
Errors in Program Development"
Reading code carefully is the most
cost effective way to find bugs
Cohen 2006: most of the value comes
from the first hour and
the first pair of eyes
Code review now normal in open source
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Do programming languages affect
productivity?
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Do programming languages affect
productivity?
Does using design patterns make for better
code?
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Do programming languages affect
productivity?
Does using design patterns make for better
code?
Can we predict software faults statistically?
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Is up-front design cost-effective?
Do programming languages affect
productivity?
Does using design patterns make for better
code?
Can we predict software faults statistically?
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Is up-front design cost-effective?
Why is it hard to learn how to
program?
Do programming languages affect
productivity?
Does using design patterns make for better
code?
Can we predict software faults statistically?
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Is up-front architecture cost-
effective?
Why is it hard to learn how to
program?
Is open source software actually
better?
Do programming languages affect
productivity?
Does using design patterns make for better
code?
Can we predict software faults statistically?
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Software Engineering Empirical Results
Is up-front architecture cost-
effective?
Why is it hard to learn how to
program?
Is open source software actually
better?
Are some programmers 10X better?
Do programming languages affect
productivity?
Does using design patterns make for better
code?
Can we predict software faults statistically?
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February 2011
Copyright © Software Carpentry 2011
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License
See http://software-carpentry.org/license.html for more information.
narrated by
Greg Wilson