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Fleet Electrifcation RoadmapREVOLUTIONIZING TRANSPORTATION AND ACHIEVING ENERGY SECURITY
November 2010
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Fleet Electrifcation RoadmapREVOLUTIONIZING TRANSPORTATION AND ACHIEVING ENERGY SECURITY
November 2010
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leet electriication roadmap
Table o Contents
Letter rom the Electrifcation Coalition 5
Executive Summary 8
PRIMER
Electrifcation o the Transportation Sector 17
Overview 19
The Case or Electrifcation 31
A Growth Sector or Jobs 40
Market Outlook 42
Expanding the Demand Side 44
PART ONE
The Case For Fleets 46
1.1 Overview 49
1.2 Fleet Demographics 50
1.3 Advantages o Fleet Operators 54
Total Cost o Ownership Approach to Acquisition 56
Route Predictabilit y 58
High Vehicle Utilizati on Rates 60
Use o Central Parking Facilities 62
Importance o Maintenan ce and Service Costs 65
Lower Electricity Rates 66
Alternati ve Business Models 67
Corporate Sustainabi lity Initiati ves 70
PART TWO
Fleet Challenges 72
2.1 Overview 75
2.2 Fleet Challenges 76
Technology Costs 78
Capital Expenditures vs. Operating Expense 83
Battery Residual Value 84
Fleet Inrastructure Issues 87
Utility Impact o Dense Charge Networks 88
Market Perception 92
PART THREE
Identiying Fleet Opportunities 94
3.1 Overview 97
3.2 Modeling Assumptions 99
3.3 Key Findings 106
3.4 Case Studies 111
Sales, Service, Utility Cars 112
Light Sales, Service, Utility, Short Haul 115
Light Government 118
Medium Short Haul, Sales & Service 121
3.5 Fleet Adoption o GEVs in 2015 124
PART FOUR
Policy Recommendations 126
4.1 Fleet Microsystems 129
4.2 Other Policies 134
Conclusion 140
Appendix A: Top 50 Commercial Fleets 142
Appendix B: Available Vehicle Matrix 144
Key to Terms 148
Acknowledgements 150
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leet electriication roadmap4 preace
LETTER FROM THE ELECTRIFICATION COALITION
In November 2009, the Electrication Coalition released
the Electrication Roadmap, a comprehensive policy
ramework analyzing the state o the electric drive vehicle
industry and the barriers to achieving higher rates o
penetration in America’s light-duty vehicle eet. The goal
o the Roadmap was ambitious: to transorm the U.S. light-
duty ground transportation system rom one that is oil-dependent to one
powered almost entirely by electricity, enhancing U.S. economic prosperity
and saeguarding national security. The report proposed an ambitious
ederal initiative to establish ‘electrication ecosystems’ in a number o
American cities. Electrication ecosystems—also known as deployment
communities—were designed to move grid-enabled electric vehicles (GEVs)
past early adopters and into mainstream consumer markets.
The Electrication Roadmap envisioned a competitive selection process
managed by the Department o Energy (DOE). To compete, applicant
cities and communities would need to demonstrate that they had made
signicant progress toward establishing the regulatory environment
in which GEVs would thrive. The most competitive applications would
demonstrate the support o a broad range o public and private stakeholders,
including utilities, utility regulators, large local employers, vehicle and
charger OEMs, and state and local governments. The winning communities
would be eligible or targeted, amplied, temporary subsidies or consumers,
inrastructure providers, and utilities. The program was proposed to advance
in two phases and expire in 2018.
OUR MISSION
The Electrication Coalition is dedicated to reducing America’s
dependence on oil through the electrication o transportation. Our
primary mission is to promote government action to acilitate deployment
o electric vehicles on a mass scale. The Coalition serves as a dedicated
rallying point or an array o electrication allies and works to disseminate
inormed, detailed policy research and analysis.
ELECTRIFICATION COALITION MEMBERS
John T. ChambersChairman & CEO, Cisco Systems, Inc.
Timothy E. ConverChairman, President & CEO, Aerovironment, Inc.
Peter L. CorsellNon-Executive Chairman, GridPoint, Inc.
David W. CranePresident & CEO, NRG Energy, INC.
Alexander M. CutlerChairman & CEO, Eaton Corporation
Steven "Mac" HellerCo-Chairman & Interim CEO, CODA Automotive
Peter A. DarbeeChairman, CEO, & P resident, PG&E Corporation
Charles GassenheimerChairman & CEO, Ener1, Inc.
Sei GhasemiChairman & CEO, Rockwood Holdings, Inc.
Carlos GhosnPresident & CEO, Nissan Motor Company, Ltd
Jerey R. ImmeltChairman & CEO, General Electric Company
Ray LaneManagingPartner,KleinerPerkinsCauield&Byers
Richard LowenthalFounder & CEO, Coulomb Technologies, Inc.
Alex A. MolinaroliChairman, Johnson Controls-Sat andPresident, Johnson Controls Power Solutions
Reuben MungerChairman & CEO, Bright Automotive, Inc.
Jim PiroPresident & CEO, Portland General Electric
Mike SegalChairman & CEO, LS Power Group
Frederick W. SmithChairman, President & CEO, FedEx Corporation
Eric SpiegelPresident & CEO, Siemens Corporation
Andrew C. TaylorChairman & CEO, Enterprise Holdings
David P. VieauPresident & CEO, A123 Systems, Inc.
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preace leet electriication roadmap6
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leet electriication roadmap
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Between 2003 and 2009, the global oil market witnessed its
most signifcant period o volatility in nearly a generation.
Ater relentlessly increasing or fve years, oil prices spiked
to historical highs o more than $147 per barrel in July 2008.1
Not by coincidence, the home mortgage and global fnancial
crises erupted just a ew months later, plunging the U.S.
economy into its most severe recession since World War
Two. Ater retreating to less than $40 per barrel in early
2009, oil prices have now averaged more than $70 per
barrel throughout 2010.2
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Source: DOE; IMF
FIGURE E1
Net U.S. Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP
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executive summary leet electriication roadmap10
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Between 2008and2030, increasedoil consumption in the
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in global oil consumption.70%
FIGURE E4
Fleet GEV Parc Scenarios
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The Case or FleetsPART TWO
Fleet Challenges
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14 leet electriication roadmapexecutive summary
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Identiying Fleet Opportunities
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FIGURE E7
Lowest TCO Drivetrain Technology by Year and Segment — Operations Optimized + Government Incentives
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1 6 e xe cu ti ve s um mary
PRIMER
Electrifcation o the
Transportation Sector
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leet electriication roadmapspecial section18 primer: electriication o the transportation sector
Overview
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ABSTRACT
The electric vehicle industry has gained signicant
momentum over the past several years. Strong
investment rom the private and public sectors
has placed the United States on a path to global
competitiveness in advanced battery manuacturing,
and there appears to be strong demand or the rst
wave o grid-powered vehicles. Electric vehicles oer
the possibility o a transportation sector delinkedrom oil, which would dramatically improve
economic and national security while reducing
emissions. While personal-use passenger vehicles
will continue to be the key market, other targets—
such as commercial and government eets—could
help drive early demand.
Want To Learn More?
Visit ElectrifcationCoalition.org to
download the Electrifcation Roadmap
or request a printed copy.
A worker checks production o lithium-ion automotive batteries in a
Johnson Controls Advanced Power Solutions plant.
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primer: electriication o the transportation sector leet electriication roadmapspecial section22 special section leet electriication roadmap
Oil and the U.S. Economy
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FIGURE P3
Liquid Fuel Consumption, Historical and Forecast
Electric PowerRes and Comm.IndustrialOtherMilitaryRailMaritimeAviationBusesHeavy-DutyMedium-DutyLight-TruckAuto
0
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2035203020252020201520102007
Million Barrels per Day
FIGURE P4
Change in U.S. Petroleum Consumption
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Gasoline
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Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks
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FIGURE P5
Change in U.S. Petroleum Demand, 1973–2008
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primer: electriication o the transportation sector leet electriication roadmapspecial section24 special section leet electriication roadmap
Economic Costs o Oil Dependence
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2 8 D OE , E IA ,October2010 Short Term Energy Outlook; DOE,EIA,
Weekly Petroleum StatusReport (O6,2010);SAFE.
29 U.S. C B,Of F TS; EC .
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33 Id.
FIGURE P6
Monthly U.S. Petroleum Trade Decit
Monthly U.S. PetroleumTrade Deficit
Percent of TotalTrade Deficit
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100%Billions (Nominal $)
FIGURE P7
Oil Prices And Economic Growth
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10%
201020052000199519901985198019751970
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
$100perBarrel
Oil Prices
ChangeinGDP
Change in GDP
Source: Figure P6 — U.S. Census Bureau; Fi gure P7 — U.S. Bureau o Economic Analysis; Figure P8 — Greene, David L., and Janet L. Hopson, "The Costs o Oil Dependence 2009"
FIGURE P8
Economic Costs of U.S. Oil Dependence
0
100
200
300
400
$500
20082006200420022000199819961994199219901988198619841982198019781976197419721970
Loss of Potential GDP
Dislocation Losses
Wealth Transfer
Billion $2007
Since December 2007,
crude oil and petroleum
products have routinely
accounted or more than
hal o the monthly U.S.
trade defcit.
Oil tanker moored in loading bay o oil refnery in Houston, Texas.
special section
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primer: electriication o the transportation sector leet electriication roadmapspecial sectionspecial section28
Assessing Energy Markets over the Medium Term
T -
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44 DOE,EIA,STEO,CTB,
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43 IEA(IEA), WorldEnergy Outlook 2008( WEO
2008),T14.1.
Source: Figure P10 — DOE, AER 2009 ; Figure P11 — DOE, AER
FIGURE P11
Energy Related CO2 Emissions, End Use
Commercial
Industrial
Residential
Transport
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
200019901980197019601950
Billion Metric TonsTransportation becomes the leading
source of energy-related CO2 emissions
FIGURE P10
Share of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Fuel & Use
Transport Oil
Other Oil
Electric Power Coal
Natural Gas and Waste
Other Coal
0
10
20
40
60
80
100%
2009200019901980197019601950
FIGURE P12
Light Duty Vehicle Stock by Region
Millions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
RussiaJapanIndiaChinaUnited StatesEuropean Union
2007
2015
2030
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009
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primer: electriication o the transportation sector leet electriication roadmapspecial sectionspecial section30
The Case or Electrifcation
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_2010_10_06., O29, 2010.
Electrication o
transportation re
the most promisin
near-term opport
or undamentally
reducing Americ
dependence on oi
FIGURE P14
Electrication Architecture
30 MI90% of U.S. vehicle trips
are less than 30 miles.
RetailLocations
Workplace
ResidentialHome
Electric Grid
48% Coal
20% Nuclear
22% Natural Gas
9% Renewables
·············· Power Generation ······················· Transmission & Distribution ···························· Vehicle Charging ······················
FIGURE P13
Oil Demand, China
Million Barrels per Day
0
2
4
6
8
10
201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000199919981997199619951994199319921991
Sources: DOE, EIA
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leet electriication roadmapspecial section leet electriication roadmap32 special sectionspecial sectionprimer: electriication o the transportation sector
Today's familiar hybrid-electric vehicles offer improved efciency over traditional internal
combustion engine automobiles. However, by incorporating a larger battery and drawing electric
power from the grid, plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles offer a step change improvemen
in energy security.
FIGURE P15
Vehicle Congurations
INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE VEHICLE HYBRID-ELECTRIC VEHICLE (HEV) PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE (PHEV) ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV)
KEY FEATURES
Traditional IC engine vehicles store liquid uel—typically gasoline or diesel—
onboard in a uel tank. Fuel is combusted in the engine, which delivers
mechanical energy to the axle to propel the vehicle. The high energy density
o gasoline and the ability to store signifcant volumes o uel onboard
allow IC engine vehicles to travel several hundred miles without reueling.
Today's internal combustion engines, however, are highly inefcient. IC
engine automobiles turn less than 20 percent o the energy in gasoline into
power that propels the vehicle. The rest o the energy is lost to engine and
driveline inefciencies and idling.
KEY FEATURES
HEVs retain the use o an IC engine, and thereore require a liquid uel tank.
Additional energy is stored in a battery, rom which electricity ows to an
electric motor. The motor transorms electrical energy into mechanical
energy, which provides some measure o torque to the wheels. In a typical
parallel hybrid system, both the engine and the motor provide torque to the
wheels. In a series hybrid system, only the electric motor provides torque
to the wheels, and the battery is charged via an onboard generator. Power
split systems utilize two electric motors and an IC engine. Both the engine
and the larger electric motor can provide torque to the wheels—jointly or
independently.
KEY FEATURES
Like traditional hybrids, PHEVs retain the use o an internal combustion
engine and uel tank while adding a battery and electric motor. However,
PHEVs utilize much larger batteries, which can be charged and recharged
by plugging into the electric grid. PHEV batteries are capable o powering
the vehicle purely on electricity at normal speeds over signifcant distances
(approximately 40 miles) without any assistance rom the IC engine. When
the battery is depleted, PHEVs use the IC engine as a generator to power the
electric motor and extend their range by several hundred miles. PHEVs can
be confgured as a series hybrid system or a power split system.
KEY FEATURES
EVs do not incorporate an IC engine or conventional uel system. Elec
vehicles rely on one or more electric motors that receive power rom
onboard battery to provide the vehicle's propulsion and operation o
accessories. EV batteries, which are typically larger than batteries in H
or PHEVs to support vehicle range, are charged by plugging the car in
device (electric vehicle service equipment) that receives electrical po
rom the grid.
Engine Transaxle Fuel System
Engine
Electric MotorTransaxle
Fuel System Fuel System
Battery Battery Batter
Charger Plug & Charger Plug & Charger
Engine
Electric Motor
Generator
Transaxle
Electric Motor
Transaxle
MILD HYBRID (PARALLEL SYSTEM)
• Still relies heavily on IC engine
• Efciency gains o 15 to 20 percent
• Battery provides additional power during acceleration;
powers the A/C and other systems during idling
• Regenerative braking charges battery
FULL HYBRID (POWER-SPLIT SYSTEM)
• Still relies on IC engine, but less than mild hybrid
• Efciency gains o 25 to 40 percent
• Larger battery provides enough power or autonomous
driving at low speeds
• Smaller motor acts as generator to charge the battery
HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE SYSTEMS PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE SYSTEMS
PHEV (SERIES HYBRID SYSTEM)
• Only electric motor provides torque to wheels
• IC engine serves only to augment the battery ater depletion
• Uses no gasoline while battery is sufciently charged
• Charges battery through grid connection and
regenerative braking
PHEV (POWER-SPLIT SYSTEM)
• Both the motor and IC engine can provide torque to
the wheels
• IC engine provides torque when required (blended mode)
• Charges battery through grid connection and
regenerative braking
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primer: electriication o the transportation sector leet electriication roadmapspecial sectionspecial section34
A , -
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63 Já M.Bé,“HEfPGR E:
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67 ORNL, PotentialImpacts oPlug-in HybridElectric Vehicleson Regional
PowerGeneration (2008).
68 ANL, Wellto WheelsAnalysiso EnergyUseand
GreenhouseGasEmissionsin Plug-inHybridElectricVehicles (2010).
The Advantages o Electric Drive
E -
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C&CCG, EnvironmentalAssessmentoPlug-InHybrid
ElectricVehicles:Volume1:NationwideGreenhouseGasEmissions (2007).
Notes: 1. EV efciecny assumes electricity generated rom natural gas at the U.S. national average heat rate o 8,305 Btu/kWh; 10 percent line loss; and motor efciency o 4.0 mi/kWh
2. Full hybird mpg assumed at 50 3. ICE mpg assumed at 30 4. NGV mpg-e assumed at 28 5. Gaoline assumed at $3/gal; CNG at $1.50 GGE; electricity at $0.10/kWh.
FIGURE P16
Relative Efciency of Sample Light-Duty Vehicle Technologies
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Traditional ICENatural Gas VehicleFull HybridEV
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12Fuel Cost per Mile ($)Miles traveled per 1,000 BTU
Source: Electric Power Research Institute; Natural Resources Deense Council
FIGURE P17
Vehicle Emissions by Technology and Fuel
Gasoline Tank-to-WheelsGasoline Well-to-Tank Electricity Well-to-Wheels
0 100 200 300 400
PHEV - Renewables
PHEV - 2010 Old CC
PHEV- 2010 Old GT
PHEV - 2010 Old Coal
HEV
Conventional Vehicle
Grams of CO2 per Mile
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primer: electriication o the transportation sector leet electriication roadmapspecial sectionspecial section36
WTP (On-Board)
PTW(On-Board)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
PHEV-40 CSPHEV-40 CDPHEV-10 CSPHEV-10 CD
Conventional Gasoline
Grams of CO2 per Mile BTU per Mile
WTP (Electric)0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
CAWECCILNY - ISO
HEV
PTW (On-Board)
Conventional Gasoline
HEV
WTP= Well-to-Pump;PTW =Pump-to-Wheels;CD= ChargeDepleting;CS= ChargeSustaining
FIGURE P18
Well-to-Wheels Emissions: PHEV-40 in CD ModeFIGURE P19
Well-to-Wheels Petroleum Use
Sources: Figure P18, P19 — Argonne National Laboratory; Figure P20 — U.S. Bureau o Economic Analysis; BP, plc., Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
FIGURE P20
Oil Intensity of the U.S. Economy (Real $2005)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2010200520001995199019851980197519701965
Barrels of Oil / $1,000 of GDP
. E — -
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HEV f ICE ,
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B 1975 1985, U S
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7 8 D OE , EPA2007 ,T4.5;DOE,UMAR2009,TS.1.;DOE, AER
2008,T8.10.
Average RetailGasoline
Average RetailElectricity
0
5
10
15
20
25
$30
2008200019921984197619681960
per Million BTU (Nominal)
Source: DOE, AER 2010; EC Analysis
FIGURE P21
Retail Electricity & Gasoline Prices
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leet electriication roadmapspecial section38 primer: electriication o the transportation sector
FIGURE P22
Nymex Settlement Price
Natural Gas
Central Appalachian Coal
0
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
$7.00
Sep. '10May '10Jan. '10Sep. '09May '09Jan. '09
per Million BTU
FIGURE P23
U.S. Proved Reserves, Dry Natural Gas
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
Conventional
Coalbed
Methane
Shale Gas
Trillion Cubic Feet
Source: Figure P22 — DOE, EIA; EC Analysis; Figure P23 — DOE, EIA; Figure P24 — Credit Suisse
FIGURE P24
U.S. Coal Power Plant Capacity (GWh)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
341 115
65
58
103
Both FGDand SCR
Only FGD
Only SCR
No EmissionsControl
Total Fleet
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81 Id., 33.
special section
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primer: electriication o the transportation sector leet electriication roadmapspecial section40 special section leet electriication roadmapspecial section
A Growth Sector or Jobs
E f 2007-2009
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93 D Bz,“CIB E H C,”
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FIGURE P25
U.S. Unemployment Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10%
2010200820062004200220001998199619941992199019881986198419821980
FIGURE P26
Share of Global Manufacturing Output
ChinaUnited States
0
5
10
15
20
25
30%
20082004200019961992198819841980
Source: Figure P25 — International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook 2010 ; Figure P26 — United Nations Statistics; Figure P27 — DOE, ORNL, TEDB Ed. 29
FIGURE P27
U.S. Vehicle Manufacturing Employment
Parts - Other
Motor Vehicle - Other
Production Workers - Parts
Production Workers - Motor Vehicles0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2008200620042002200019981996199419921990
Thousand Workers
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primer: electriication o the transportation sector leet electriication roadmapspecial sectionspecial section42
Market Outlook
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FIGURE P28
Total Monthly Annualized Auto and Light Truck Sales
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SAAR in Millions
Source: EC Analysis
FIGURE P29
Median Forecast, U.S. PHEV and EV Sales Share (2020)
EV/PHEV % of New
Vehicle Sales
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Deutsche BankPRTMBloomberg New Energy FinanceRoland BergerBCGGlobal InsightDeloitteEIA
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primer: electriication o the transportation sector leet electriication roadmapspecial sectionspecial section44
Expanding the Demand Side
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FIGURE P30
U.S. Oil Demand By Sector
A New York Times Dodge Sprinter plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), which will be used or newspaper delivery, is seen April 11, 2007 in New York
City. The vehicle is the frst medium-duty plug-in hybrid vehicle on the East Coast and can operate up to 20 miles in zero-emission electric mode or as a
hybrid with a diesel.
Based on total cost o ownership
modeling conducted or his report,
commercial and government
feets could contribute substantial
volume commitments in the early
development phases o the
GEV market.
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PART ONE
The Caseor Fleets
1.1 OVERVIEW
1.2 FLEET DEMOGRAPHICS
1.3 ADVANTAGES OF FLEETS
C CL I C L G CE
T E
M ET
I I
EC MIC C E T IE - C FLEET FLEET E . LIC I E
T I T IE
I E
T I T IE
M I LE T E LET GET L I CLE T L
G
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LIC
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TTE
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I IE
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ABSTRACT
For electrifcation to meaningully impact U.S. energy and
national security, grid-enabled vehicles will ultimately need
to succeed in the personal-use passenger vehicle market.
However, during the early development o the electric vehicle
industry, while battery and vehicle costs remain high, other
market segments could prove critical or driving demand.
In particular, commercial and government eets could
represent major early adopters o grid-enabled vehicles.
The lower uel and maintenance costs associated with
grid-enabled vehicles—particularly EVs—could provide more
near-term economic value or eet operators than typical
consumers, particularly in higher mileage applications.
Moreover, the key challenges acing widespread consumer
adoption, including access to inrastructure, range anxiety,
and the higher upront costs o the vehicles themselves—
might be more easily managed by eet owners. Finally,
the implementation o corporate sustainability initiatives
in a number o American businesses could provide added
momentum or the purchase o highly efcient electric drive
vehicles in eet applications.
CHAPTER 1.1
Overview
There were more than 16 million public and private eet vehicles on the road in
the United States in 2009.1 While the size o individual eets varies signifcantly,
the top 50 eet operators together manage more than hal a million vehicles.2
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leet electriication roadmap48 part one: the case or leets
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What Constitutes A Fleet?
For the purposes of this report, a eet is dened as ve or more vehicles under central commercial or government ownership.
Data has been aggregated from a number of sources, including the U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
R.L. Polk and Co., and industry publications such as Automotive Fleet. Data was also acquired from industry associations, eet
operators, vehicle OEMs, and other primary sources.
It is important to note that there are a variety of interpretations and denitions of eets, and these impact the way that data is
aggregated by different sources. Aggregating historical data series is particularly difcult as a result of changing denitions over
time. The Department of Energy Annual Energy Outlook reports sales, stock, and energy consumption data for light-duty vehicles(cars and SUVs) in eets of 10 or more only. In their annual Transportation Energy Data Book, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
denes eets as having 15 or more vehicles in operation or purchasing ve or more vehicles annually. This denition also serves
as the reporting criteria for prominent industry trade publications, including Automotive Fleet.
At least two important eet demographics are not covered by these denitions, and they are not directly addressed by this
analysis. First, smaller eets of less than ve vehicles, which may include as few as one or two vehicles in operation, are not
included. Second, less structured arrangements that may have some eet characteristics, but are not typically dened as eets,
are not included. An example would be an employer providing drivers with fuel reimbursement accounts.
CHAPTER 1.2
Fleet Demographics
Vehicle eets are utilized by an extremely diverse set o industries and government
agencies or an equally diverse set o purposes. Individual eet sizes vary rom less
than fve vehicles to as large as tens-o-thousands o vehicles.
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FIGURE 1A
Vehicle Class by Weight
EXAMPLE GROUP CLASS COMMON EXAMPLES GROSS VEHICLE WEIGHT
Auto Class 1Ford Focus
Nissan Altima< 6,000 lbs
Light-Duty Trucks
Class 1Ford Ranger
GMC Canyon< 6,000 lbs
Class 2Dodge Ram
Ford F-1506,001–10,000 lbs
Medium-Duty Trucks
Class 3Ford F-350
GMC Sierra 350010,001–14,000 lbs
Class 4Ford F-450
GMC Sierra 450014,001–16,000 lbs
Class 5Ford F-550
GMC Sierra 550016,001–19,500 lbs
Class 6
Ford F-650
GMC Topkick
International Durastar
19,501–26,000 lbs
Heavy-Duty Trucks
C lass 7 Intern at io na l T rans star 2 6,001 -3 3,000 l bs
Class 8 Tractor Trailor > 33,000 lbs
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0 20 40 60 80 1000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Class 8
Class 7
Class 6
Class 5
Class 4
Class 3
Class 1-2
Auto
Utility & Telecom / 500,000
There were nearly half a million vehicles in
operation in utility and telecom fleets in 2009.
The size of the asset class is somewhat evenly
distributed across vehicle classes, though the
light and heavy ends of the spectrum are most
prominent. Typical utility and telecom vehicles
range from light-duty cars and trucks used for
reading meters and making routine customer
visits to heavier trucks used to maintain and
repair damaged infrastructure.
7 3 % P r ivate Sec tor
2 7% Public Se c t o r
2 3 % S t a t e
& L o c a l
4 % F e d
e r a l
28% Short-Haul
Delivery
S a l e s & 1 1 %
S e r v i c e
R e n t a l 1 0 %
F lee t s 5 - 1 4 6 %
U t i l i t y &
T e l e c o m
3 %
O t h e r 3 %
1 3 %
L o n g - H a u l
D e l i v
e r y
1% Taxi
16.3 MillionFleet Vehicles In OperationIn the United States (2009)
1 1 .9 M I LLION VEHIC L E S
P u blic Sec t o r
P r i v at e Sec t o r
4. 4 Million V e h i c l e s
State & Local / 3.7 MillionState and local governments maintain 3.7
million fleet vehicles in operation,
including law enforcement vehicles. More
than two-thirds of state and local
government vehicles are autos or class
1-2 light-duty trucks. More than 10
percent are transit and other buses
operated by municipal and regional
transit authorities.
Sales & Service / 1.7 Million
Sales and service vehicles totaled 1.7 million in 2009.
The size of the asset class is somewhat skewed
toward the lighter end of the spectrum, with nearly
1 million autos and class 1-3 trucks in operation.
Typical sales and service vehicles range from
light-duty passenger car fleets in the pharmaceutical
industry up to class 8 refuse removal trucks.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Short-Haul Delivery / 4.5 Million
Short-haul delivery vehicles made up one of the
largest fleet segments in the United States in 2009,
totaling 4.5 million vehicles in operation across all
vehicle classes. The size of the short-haul delivery
asset class is heavily skewed toward lighter trucks
and cargo vans. Nearly 50 percent of vehicles in
operation are class 1 and 2 trucks.
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Class 8
Class 7
Class 6
Class 5
Class 4
Class 3
Class 1-2
Auto
Long-Haul Delivery / 2.1 Million
There were more than 2 million long-haul freight
vehicles in fleet applications in operation in the
United States in 2009. The size of the asset class is
generally class 6 and higher, and class 8 vehicles
account for more than half of the total. Class 8
vehicles include combination tractor trailers as well
as other applications.
0 300 600 900 1200 1500
Other / 450,000Other vehicles include privately owned and
operated school buses among other vehicles. In
2009, there were approximately 450,000 privately
owned and operated heavy-duty school buses in
the United States.
Fleets 5 - 14 / 960,000Class one automobiles in fleets with between 5
and 14 vehicles totaled 960,000 across multiple
industries in 2009. More detailed data is generally
not available.
Taxi / 150,000There were more than 150,000 vehicles operating
as part of taxi fleets in the United States in 2009.
Essentially 100 percent of these vehicles are
passenger automobiles and minivans or SUVs,
though cars account for the majority.
Rental / 1.6 Million
There were approximately 1.6 million rental fleet
vehicles in operation in 2009. The majority—76
percent— were automobiles. The rest were a mix
of class 1-5 trucks. Originally more focused on
longer trips like vacations, the rental industry
has expanded to meet the needs of predomi-
nantly urban consumers who do not own
vehicles but may need to use one on occasion.
Car sharing services are a good example of one
such new model.
0 300 600 900 1200 1500
Class
6-8
Class
4-5
Class
1-3
Auto
FederalState
Law Enforcement
Federal Vehicles / 650,000 There were approximately 650,000 federal fleet
vehicles in operation in 2009, operated by nearly
40 civilian agencies and the Department of Defense.
Civilian agencies accounted for 36.9percent of the
total, military agencies for 29.9percent, and the U.S.
Postal Service alone accounted for t he balance—33.2
percent. Postal light-duty trucks of less than 8,500
pounds GVWaccounted for 29.8 percent of all federal
fleet vehicles. Nearly two-thirds of the federal fleet is
class 1-3 trucks.
Unspecifiedmixof Class 1-5 Trucks
FIGURE 1B
Vehicles In Operation by Sector & Application
Total eet vehicles in operation totaled 16.3 million in 2009. The private sector
accounted for nearly three-fourths of the total. Within the public sector, state and
local government agencies accounted for 85 percent of the government total.
FIGURE 1C
Vehicles In Operation by Application & ClassNOTE: Vehicle Applications are listed in order of market share; vehicle class domains vary in scale and are measured in thousands.
52 leet electriication roadmappart one: the case or leets leet demographics
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CHAPTER 1.3
Advantages o Fleet Operators
Commercial and government eets possess a number o key advantages
that could enable them to be early adopters o grid-enabled vehicles. These
advantages include the way eet managers make vehicle acquisition decisions
as well as certain unique operational traits o eets.
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part one: the case or leets leet electriication roadmap54 advantages o leet operators
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FIGURE 1D
Illustrative Total Cost of Ownership: Traditional OwnershipFIGURE 1E
Illustrative Total Cost of Ownership: Closed-end Lease
part one: the case or leets leet electriication roadmap56 advantages o leet operators
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Route Predictability
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Daily Miles Traveled for Each Vehicle in a Household
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Six-Vehicle HHFive-Vehicle HHFour-Vehicle HHThree-Vehicle HHTwo-Vehicle HHSingle Vehicle HH
Vehicle 6Vehicle 5Vehicle 4
Vehicle 3
Vehicle 2
Vehicle 1
Average Daily Miles Driven
FIGURE 1G
Battery Cost as a Percent of Vehicle Price
DRIVETRAIN CLASS KWH $/KWH BATTERY COST VEHICLE COST BATTERY % OF VEHICLE COST
HEV Auto 1.5 1,200 $1,800 $30,000 6
PHEV Auto 12 660 $7,920 $36,000 22
EV Auto 24 600 $14,400 $41,000 35
PHEV Class 4-5 29 792 $22,900 $67,000 34
EV Class 4-5 65 720 $46,800 $92,000 51
Source: Interviews, Published Vehicle Specs, PRTM Estimates
Source: DOE, ORNL, Transportation Energy Data Book
part one: the case or leets leet electriication roadmap58 advantages o leet operators
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FIGURE 1H
Average Annual Miles of Travelfor Household Vehicles by Age
VEHICLE AGE ANNUAL MILES TRAVELED (2009)
Less than 1 Year 12,800
1 Year 13,800
2 Years 13,500
3 Years 12,500
4 Years 11,800
5 Years 11,700
6 Years 11,300
7 Years 11,000
8 Years 10,300
9 Years 9,900
10 Years and Older 7,300
Average o All Household Vehicles 10,100
FIGURE 1I
Average Annual Miles of Travelfor Business Fleet Vehicles
B US IN ES S FL EE T V EH IC LE S A NN UA L MI LE S TR AV EL ED ( 20 08 )
Compact Cars 23,148
Intermediate Cars 23,412
Light Trucks 28,020
Minivans 27,852
SUVs 22,968
Full-Size Vans 25,212
FIGURE 1J
Average Cycle, Fleet Cars and Light Trucks
Source: Bobit Publishing Company
FIGURE 1K
Average Ending Months in Service, Business Fleet Vehicles
VEHICLE TYPE AVERAGE MONTHS IN SERVICE
Compact Cars 36
Intermediate Cars 29
Light Trucks 51
Minivans 36
SUVs 29
Full-Size Vans 56
100%0%
Source: DEO, ORNL, Transportation Energy Data Book
High Vehicle Utilization Rates S
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23 JV,“C WH-MH T;JS I'
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24 J M,“BP’ TB S:A T S
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Months in Service
part one: the case or leets leet electriication roadmap60 advantages o leet operators
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18 L I . I ,
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Alternativeand RenewableFueland VehicleTechnology Program,39,
(A2010), ://.../2010/
CEC-600-2010-001/CEC-600-2010-001-CMF.PDF
Years0 105 20 30 40 50
0
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40
60
80
100%
10 Year Expected Charger Life
An average utilization rate above 60% should reduce the
charger’s payback period below the 10 year expected life.
6 Year Minimum Payback Period
Operating at peak utilization of 100%, the
payback period for a charger would be 6 years.
FIGURE 1M
Expected Payback Period on Public Level II Charges
FIGURE 1L
Charging Infrastructure: Terms of Service
CHARGER APPLICATIONS OUTLET ST YLE VOLTAGE AMPERAGE COST EV CHARGE TIM E PHEV CHA RGE TIM E
Level One Private
Standard
U.S. Outlet
110v 12A —
1 5-18 H ours 6-12 Hour s
Level Two Private / Public
Dryer or
Large Appliance
220-240v 12-30A $2K-$4K
3-7 Hours 1-3 hrs
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440v $15K-$50K
20 to 30 Min.
Not Applicable
P
part one: the case or leets leet electriication roadmap62 advantages o leet operators
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FIGURE 10
Maintenance and Service Costs as a Share of Operating Cost – ICE Vehicles
FIGURE 1P
Maintenance Cost – EV vs. ICE Vehicles
Importance o Maintenance and Service Costs
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35 U.S.DC,BC, 2002Vehicle
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36 Id.
FIGURE 1N
Primary Fueling Option by Fleet Size
0
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50
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90
100%
51 or more21 - 5011 - 206 - 101 - 5
Gas Station
Truck Stop
Own Facility
Other’s Facility
0
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per Mile
EV Class 3 Truck
Petrol Class 3 Truck
< 24,000 mi
24,001–48,000 mi
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0
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20
25
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35%
Light-TruckFull Size VanIntermediate CarsCompact Cars
Source: Figure 1O—DOE, ORNL, Transportation Energy Data Book; Figure 1P—EC Analysis
Source: DOE, ORNL, Transportation Energy Data Book
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Alternative Business Models
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Sample TRAC Lease Outcomes
GAIN ON SALE LOSS ON SALE BREAK EVEN ON SALE
Capital Cost $22,000 $22,000 $22,000
Amortization Term 60 Months 60 Months 60 Months
Leased Months 48 Months 48 Months 48 Months
Book Value $4,400 $4,400 $4,400
Resale Value $5,200 $3,800 $4,400
Customer Impact $800 -$600 $0
C
41
2009.41%
FIGURE 1Q
Average Retail Prices of Electricty
ResidentialCommercial
All Sectors
Industrial
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.10
0.12
$0.14
20082004200019961992198819841980
Real $2005 per kWh
Source: DOE, EIA
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. I -
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FIGURE 1S
Change in Energy Prices (2000–2010)
Index: Jan. 2000=1
Crude Oil WTI
Retail Gasoline–US City Average
Retail Diesel–All Types
Retail Electricity–All Sectors
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010200920082006200520042003200220012000
Source: DOE, EIA; EC Analysis
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Corporate Sustainability Initiatives
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FIGURE 1T
GEVs in Operation in Private SectorFleets, Global (End 2010)
0
5
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AT&TUPSFedExFrito-LayPG&E0
200
400
600
800
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AT&TFedExXcelEnergy
JohnsonControls
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Ford Motor Company’s Transit Connect Electric vehicle in Chicago, Illinois.
Source: EC Analysis
2009 -
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FIGURE 1U
Committed GEV Purchases in Private SectorFleets, Global (2011 - 2015)
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PART TWO
FleetChallenges
2.1 OVERVIEW
2.2 FLEET CHALLENGES
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ABSTRACT
While commercial and government eets do possess a
number o important advantages that could acilitate
their adoption o grid-enabled vehicles, they will also
ace challenges. Some o the undamental cost and
technology issues aecting personal-use consumers
will also be problematic or eets. Today’s high lithium-
ion battery costs will limit the attractiveness o GEVs in
some instances. High costs or drivetrain components and
the need to invest in inrastructure will also impact the
economics o GEVs.
Vehicle leasing and eet owners’ access to capital may
allow them to address these issues more easily than the
typical consumer, but GEVs will also require many eet
owners to be exible and adapt to new business and
acquisition practices. In addition, vehicle electrifcation
may present a set o unique challenges or eet operators,
requiring a combination o careul planning and targeted
public policy support.
CHAPTER 2.1
Overview
Numerous advantages o commercial and government eet owners should help to
acilitate their adoption o grid-enabled vehicles. However, a number o challenges
will require public policy support in the near term.
T E R
-
-
. T :
1. The high cost of the vehicles themselves,
driven largely by the batteries;
2. the lack of available public charging
infrastructure;
3. the need to enable successful vehicle-
utility interface; and
4. a lack of mainstream consumer accep-
tance of grid-enabled vehicles.
A P O F E
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CHAPTER 2.2
Fleet Challenges
In addition to the higher upront costs, GEVs may present challenges to eet
operators. Balancing increased capital spending with operational savings will
require institutional exibility. Meanwhile, addressing battery residual risk and
the impact o clustered charging could require public policy innovation.
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EV
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FIGURE 2C
Typical Battery Charge Patterns by Primary xEV TypeFIGURE 2D
Battery Cost Reduction Prole
Source: DOE, NREL; PRTM Analysis Source: PRTM Analysis
Uncharged CapacityCharged But Not Used
0 20 40 60 80 100
HEV
PHEV
EV
Charged and Used (Charge Depleting)
Used Frequently in Charge Sustaining
Used Sometimes in Charge S ustaining
per kWh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
$1,200
2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008
STAGE 1
Limited Capacity
Limited Suppliers
Pilot Volumes
STAGE 2
Over-capacity
Slow Volume Ramp-up
New Market EntrantsTechnical Advances
STAGE 3
Sustainable Industrial Volumes
Consolidated Competitors
Operational ImprovementsContinued Technical Advances
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Capital Expenditures vs. Operating Expense
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19 EC,PRTM .
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FIGURE 2E
EV Battery Charge Times
VEHICLE BATTERY CAPACITY CHARGING METHOD CHARGING POWER FULL RECHARGE TIME
Passenger Car 24 kWh
Level 1 1.7 kW 14.1 hrs
Level 2 3.3 kW 7.3 hrs
Level 3 50 kW 0.5 hrs
Class 5 Truck 65 kWh
Level 1 1.7 kW 38.2 hrs
Level 2 6.6 kW 9.8 hrs
Level 3 50 kW 1.3 hrs
Class 7 Truck 80 kWh
Level 1 1.7 kW 47.1 hrs
Level 2 12 kW 6.7 hrs
Level 3 50 kW 1.6 hrs
0
FIGURE 2F
Sample Cashow Impact of Vehicle Leasing vs. Ownership (CapEx vs. OpEx)
Source: PRTM Analysis
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
$50,000
Year 6Year 5Year 4Year 3Year 2Year 1Year 0
Own
Lease
Battery Replacement
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. T -
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HEV PHEV .
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.
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FIGURE 2I
Directional Indicator of Charging Infrastructure Costs
Predictable Operation
L o w M
i l e a g e & B a t t e r y C a p a c i t y
H i g h M i l e a g e &
B a t t e r y C a p a c i t y
Unpredictable Operation
1 LOWEST COSTDepot, Home ChargerLevel II Charging Capacity
2 MEDIUM COSTSome Chargers in the FieldPossible Level III Capacity Required
3 MEDIUM COSTSome Chargers in the FieldPossible Level III Capacity Required
4 HIGHEST COSTMost Chargers in the FieldLevel III Capacity Likely
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Utility Impact o Dense Charge Networks
T PHEV EV
q
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FIGURE 2J
Stylized Load Shape for 1 Day During Peak Season
Source: Pacic Northwest National Labratory
10am8am6am4am2am 8pm6pm 12am10pm4pm2pm12pm
Fossil Generation
Peaking Plants
Valley Filling
Total Installed Capacity
Renewables & Hydro
Nuclear
Peak Day Load Shape
Seasonal Average
Load Shape
FIGURE 2K
Peak Day PHEV Charging in ECAR, 2020
Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratories
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
7/25
0:00
7/25
4:00
7/25
8:00
7/25
12:00
7/25
16:00
7/25
20:00
7/26
0:00
7/26
4:00
7/26
8:00
7/26
12:00
7/26
16:00
7/26
20:00
7/27
0:00
1.4 kW Night
Base
2 kW Night
2 kW Evening
6 kW Evening
6 kW Night
1.4 kW Evening
GW
Analyzing GEV Impact On Power Generation
In 2008, Oak Ridge National Laboratory released a comprehensive simulation analysis of PHEV
charging and its impact on power generation. The analysis was segmented by North American
Electricity Reliability Council (NERC) regions. The analysis assumed that 19.6 million PHEVs would
be on the road in the U.S. by 2020, and modeled the effect of multiple charging scenarios in
different NERC regions. Charging was varied by strength of charge and also time: early evening
or night charging.
Figure 2K presents the results of peak day charging by PHEVs in the East Central Area Reliability
Coordination Agreement (ECAR) region. In this case, unconstrained early evening charging by
PHEVs using a 6 kW charger surpassed the typical peak load. The implication is that in this
instance, the utility would, in fact, need to add new generation capacity to support PHEV
charging. And while this analysis probably represents a kind of worst case scenario—6 kW
vehicle chargers are not the norm for light-duty vehicles today—it highlights the need for careful
planning in managing the interface between utilities and plug-in electric vehicles. Ultimately,
utilities will need levers, including price signals and smart grid technology, to carefully deal withEV and PHEV customers in both eet and personal-use applications.
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FIGURE 2L
PG&E Pilot GEV Rate Plan
T - . I -
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-- GEV
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Monday
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7 am
Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
OFF PEAK
Summer: 5.0–5.0¢/kWhWinter: 5.8-6.4¢/kWh
PARTIAL PEAK OFF PEAK
PARTIAL PEAK
PARTIAL PEAK
Summer & Winter: 10.4–10.0¢/kWh
2 pm
5 pm
Summer: May 1–October 31 // Winter: November 1–April 30
PEAK (SUMMER ONLY)
28.4–28.0¢/kWh
Source: PG&E
. 36 TEPRI j PHEV
240 114 314
68 314
- . S
. T
PHEV 240V
68 25VA
. P ,
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,
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f
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FIGURE 2M
Neighborhood Transformer Loading
Source: Arindam Maitra, EPRI, Effects of Electrication on the Electricity Grid, 2009
0–100% Rated
100%–120% RatedOver 120%Rated
0
20
40
60
80
100% of Transformers
Transformer Type100kVA75kVA50kVA37kVA25kVA
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Market Perception
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46 Id.
47 EC,PRTM .
48 EC,PRTM .
FIGURE 2O
Vehicle Mileage at AuctionFIGURE 2N
Oil Prices and HEV Sales, U.S. (Historical)
Source: Manheim ConsultingSource: DOE, EERE
Thousand
40
60
50
80
70
90
100
200520042003200220012000
Minivans
SUVs
IntermediateCars
CompactCars
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
00
20092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Average Crude Oil Prices(2008 Dollars)
Thousand HEV Units $/BarrelAnnual US Hybrid
Vehicle Sales
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PART THREE
Identiying FleetOpportunities
3.1 OVERVIEW
3.2 MODELING ASSUMPTIONS
3.3 KEY FINDINGS
3.4 CASE STUDIES
3.5 FLEET ADOPTION OF GEVS IN 2015
C CL I C L G CE
T E
M ET
I I
EC MIC C E T IE - C FLEET FLEET E . LIC I E
T I T IE
I E
T I T IE
M I LE T E LET GET L I CLE T L
G
H E 1 H E TI L
I M E T I E
LIC
LIC
EM T T I
ECT
TTE
EHICLE
C T F
E HIL I L E
E
E
I I
E I E IE - FLEE FLEE E LI I E
I IE
I E
I IE
ILE ELE I LE L E E I L
I E I E
LI
LI
E I
E
E
E I LE
F
E I
L I L E
E
E
I I
E I E IE - FLEE FLEE E LI I E
I IE
I E
I IE
ILE ELE E E I L
I E I E
LI
LI
E I
E
E
E I LE
F
E I
E
I I
E I E IE - FLEE FLEE E LI I E
I IE
I E
I IE
ILE ELE
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ABSTRACT
Part One o this Roadmap outlined how and why commercial
and government eet owners could represent an important
early market segment or grid-enabled vehicles. Part Two
discussed several challenges that may need to be addressed
through policy support and adjustments to the operational
norms o eet operators. Part Three presents the results o
total cost modeling conducted or eets in various industries
and sectors o the U.S. economy. The analysis was perormed
or HEVs, PHEV-40s, and EV-100s.
The analysis fnds that grid-enabled vehicles can provide
signifcant economic benefts to eet operators. These
benefts will be maximized i GEVs are targeted to eet
applications whose operational attributes acilitate the
most efcient allocation o battery capacity and charging
inrastructure. Optimizing investment in upront costs allows
eet operators to beneft rom the reduced operating costs
o plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and electric vehicles in
the near-term without sacrifcing mission in most cases.
Targeted policy support has an additional positive impact.
CHAPTER 3.1
Overview
The Fleet Electrifcation Roadmap utilizes total liecycle cost modeling to compare
the economic competitiveness o various drivetrain confgurations across eet
segments. Comparisons were acilitated through the use o segment clusters that
aggregate vehicles across industries with similar attributes.
I , ,
- -
,
F E R. T -
q .
T ICE, HEV, PHEV-40,
EV-100. T
z
, -
. C
f EV
PHEV ,
.
T ,
. E
z
. T
DOT z/ .
T :
› f;
› ;
› z ;
› ;
› /;
› ;
›
Source: PRTM Analysis
S t
a t
e & L
o c a
l 2 3 %
4 % F e d
e r a
l
28% Short-HaulDelivery
S a l e s & 1 1 %
S e r v i c e
R e n t a l 1 0 %
Flee ts 5– 14 6 %
1% Taxi
3% Other
3% Utility& Telecom
Buses
Class 8
Class 7
Class 6
Class 5
Class 4
Class 3
Class 1-2
Auto 29%
26%
16%
9%
4%
1%
2%
8%
5% 1 3 %
L o n g - H a u l
D e l i v
e r y
FIGURE 3A
VIO by Industry (2009)FIGURE 3B
VIO by Class (2009)
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FIGURE 3C
Vehicle Segments for TCO Analysis
Average Miles per Day 200+160140120100806040200
Medium Utility, Gov — 0.3M
Low Mileage, Med. Predictable
Routing, Longer Park Times
MediumShort-HaulDelivery,Sales,Service
— 0.8M Medium Mileage, Predictable
Routing, Longer Park Times
56
Light Gov. — 1.7M
Low Mileage,
Medium Predictable
Routing,
Longer Park Times
4A
4B
LightSales,Service,Utility,Short-HaulDelivery— 2.6M
Medium Mileage,
Predictable Routing,
Longer Park Times
3A
3B
Gov. Cars — 1.7M
Low Mileage,
Medium Predictable
Routing, Longer
Park Times
Sales, Service, Utility Cars — 0.7M
Medium Mileage,
Medium Predictable
Routing, Longer
Park Times
2 1 Rental — 1.2M
Medium Mileage,
Unpredictable
Routing, Medium
Park Times
10 Taxi — 0.2M
High Mileage,
Unpredictable Routing,
Short Park Times
9
Heavy Utility, Gov. — 0.5M
Low Mileage,
Medium Predictable Routing,
Longer Park Times
Heavy Short-Haul Delivery — 1.4M
Medium Mileage,
Predictable Routing,
Longer Park Times
Heavy, Long-Haul Delivery, Sales,
Service — 2.5M
High Mileage,
Medium Predictable Routing,
Medium Park Times
1178
A-B
C-D
E-F
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
C a r
C o m m e r c i a l V e h i c l e
CASE STUDY
CASE STUDY
CASE STUDY
CASE STUDY
Source: PRTM Analysis
I
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. R
: -
-
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W ,
- q
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.
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2010 2015.
A ,
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, - (
11). T z
(
) - -
. O q ,
,
. B ,
-
.
CHAPTER 3.2
Modeling Assumptions
In order to isolate the eects o eet optimization and public policy, multiple
scenarios were analyzed. Standard assumptions regarding the pace o technological
change in the auto industry as well as mainstream assessments o energy prices
were also incorporated.
T -
. A P O R,
q j
-
. F
, -
. I ,
q
-
.
O -
(
) (
). T -
ICE
. T,
. T
-
: Up (Cp) C -
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, ; Ru Vu
( ).
Upront (Capital) Costs
U — — -
. F - ,
-
q
. F, -
/
.
FIGURE 3D
Cost Elements
CATEGORY COST ELEMENTS ICE HEV PHEV-40 EV
Capital
Vehicle (Powertrain exluding Battery)
Battery
Charger (Includes Installation and Software)
Residual Value Known Some Data Untested
OpexFuel/Electricity
Maintenance/Repairs (Includes Oil, Tires, (-) Warranty)
Note: High GVWR Class vehicles have reported signicant increases in maintenance costs in early production
versions of xEVs due to both the nascent state of technology and the learning curves for repair technicians.
Source: PRTM AnalysisHighMedLow
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,
-
, , IT
q z .
Operating Costs
O
. O
( -
, , ), f
, .
Eg P
E U.S.
D E’ A E O 2010. F
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(
). F EV PHEV -
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-
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U
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,
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’
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10-
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4.7 CAGR.
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,
- -
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E Dv V
T
,
. D
—HEV, PHEV, EV— z
. A ,
z
ICE
. F , PHEV
,
EV , ,
ICE . I , -
ICE q. E
, , - , -
, .
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—
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,
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Cgg Iuu
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;
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—
— q .
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F 3F. I -
, -
z
. E
FIGURE 3E
Key Components In Scope
Base VehicleCapital Cost
xEV PowertrainComponents
ICE PowertrainComponents
Base Vehicle
» Battery ($/kWh, CD range efficiency)» Single speed transmission costs» Electric motor costs» Other xEV components (inverter, charger, powertrain electronics)
» Engine
» Transmission» Other I CE components (exhaust, fuel, powertrain electronics systems)» Mandated fuel efficiency improvements
» Reference vehicle MSRP minus ICE powertrain components» Factory invoice factor» Fleet volume discounts
Source: PRTM Analysis
FIGURE 3F
Charging Congurations
SINGLE DEPOT REGULAR DELIVERY MULTIPLE SITES COMPANY CAR COMMUTER SALES FORCE
D e s c r i p t i o n
» Single home lot for all
eet vehicles
» Fleet has short, regular,
and dened routes
eliminating need for
extraneous charging
» Fleet has regular,
dened routes
» Fleet has specic dwell
points ideal for topping off
» Fleet has multiple
locations with no
central depot
» Fleet has primary daytime
location
» Fleet is parked overnight
at home
» Fleet has multiple
locations with no central
depot
» Fleet is parked overnight
at home
K e y C h
a l l e n g e s » Ra ng e a nx ie ty » Ch an ge s i n r ou te st ru ct ur e
» Intermittent events
» Charger utilization
vs. investment
» Investment in at-will
employees‘ residence
» Charger utilization vs.investment
» Complexity
» Investment in at-will
employees‘ residence
C h a r a c t e r i z e d
B y » Single large bank of charge
stations at central depot
» Primary bank of charge
stations at central depot
» Extended infrastructure
of public & fast charging
stations
» Multiple public chargers
per location
» Primary bank of charge
stations at primary
daytime lot
» Individual home chargers
at private residences
» Multiple public chargers
per location
» Individual home chargers
at private residences
» Sporadic fast charging
C en tr al C ha rg er D ep ot B an k P ub li c C ha rg er F as t C ha rg er Home Charger Charge-Depleting RangeService Area
FIGURE 3G
Evolution of Vehicle Components
ICE Components+3.7 %10 Year CAGR
-4.7 %10 Year CAGR
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160%
20202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
xEV Components
Source: PRTM Analysis
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I DOE
. N
$2.77 $3.07 -
. A 2008,
30 50 . 1,2 G
,
ICE q
DOE’
—
. S,
q
. (F -
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T
,
,
. E
-
- -
. H,
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2020.3
1 DOE,EIA,PN,WRG D
P (O25, 2010)
2 DOE,AER 2009,T5.24
3 S,..,DOE,EIA,EM EI H.R.2454,
ACE SA 2009,
://...//1605/.
Eg Cup R
T f
. F —
HEV PHEV - —
f
(). F EV PHEV
- , f
W (/W).
W ,
-
f
-
EPA . T -
q
, ,
, . I
, -
f
10 . HEV
f 30 ICE
f .
F EV PHEV - ,
. O 2010 2020,
- f
F 3K.
FIGURE 3K
Electric Motor Efciency
CD RANGE EFFICIENCY MI/KWH
Passenger Car 4.0
Class 1-2 3.1
Class 3 2.0
Class 4-5 1.5
Class 6-7 1.2
Source: PRTM Analysis
F EV, /W . T
, EV - . F
PHEV, ,
-
. E f
. T,
PHEV
F 3J, . A -
(-
). PHEV
-
.
M Rp
M -
, ,
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T . M
,
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. R
j 10
22 . T
,
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E
ICE
. I
.
E q
. M
ICE
. F 3M -
HEV, PHEV EV -
. (N: EV
, .
T HEV
. D
.)
FIGURE 3J
PHEV Charge-Depleting Range Utility Factor (%)
Sales,Service
Utility Cars
Gov. Cars
Light Sales,Service, Utility,
Short Haul
Light Gov.
MediumShort Haul,
Sales/Service
MediumUtility, Gov.
HeavyShort Haul
HeavyUtility, Gov.
TaxiRental Fleet,Car Sharing
PHEV CD Utility Range Factor
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Source: PRTM AnalysisSource: DOE, EIA, AEO 2010
Gas
Nominal Fuel Price per Gallon
Diesel
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
$4.50
20202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
$0.14
20202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
Nominal Price per kWh
FIGURE 3H
Retail Fossil Fuel Prices (2010-2020)FIGURE 3I
Retail Electricity Prices (2010-2020)
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FIGURE 3L
Maintenance and Repair Costs - ICE VehiclesFIGURE 3N
Vehicle Depreciation Schedule
0
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
$0.70
Year 10Year 9Year 8Year 7Year 6Year 5Year 4Year 3Year 2Year 1
Class 6-7 (2)
Class 4-5 (2)
Class 3 (1)Class 1-2 (1)
Auto (1)
Per Mile
Annual MilesTraveled inIncrementsof 5,000(5K-100K)0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100%
10987654321 Years
of Original Value
Source: (1) Auto Fleet, GE Capital, Utilimarc, and PRTM Analysis (2) Utilimarc and PRTM Analysis Source: PRTM Analysis
Owp M
W
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TCO .4 L
z
q,
q TCO
. T, -
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Residual Value
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E — EV
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. F ,
.
V Dp R
T
. I
z
. F ,
10 100,000
100,000 .
T
z
. T
-
. F 3M
ICE
. T
.T -
— —
ICE ’
. I
,
ICE ,
, , . H,
.
T
.
B Dp
T -
. E
— PHEV EV—
’ ,
. I,
’ . H,
( P T).
T PHEV EV
(
’ )
. F ,
GEV
(.. F 3M.) R
. F
,
.
FIGURE 3M
% Improvement over ICE Maintenance & Repair Costs
COST COMPONENT HEV PHEV-40 EV-100
Oil 5% 50% 100%
Scheduled Maintenance 3% 10% 20%
Repairs 4% 15% 30%
Source: GE Capital data and PRTM estimates
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CHAPTER 3.3
Key Findings
Based on expected trends in battery and electric drive component costs as well
as mainstream expectations regarding energy costs, electric drive vehicles should
prove highly attractive to eet operators in the coming years.
E
—
( ). I , HEV
- ICE 2012
20,000 . T
HEV
ICE . GEV
2015 2018
$400/W. B
F 3O.
I
HEV PHEV EV,
HEV -
z -
. B -
, HEV
EV PHEV . U,
, PHEV EV
-
.
T
z
. I ,
: pzg GEV wp
u w b ; g-
zg EV b w g
pp.
T q
PHEV EV
-
. F 3P
z .
W ,
z EV
PHEV . F ,
OEM f
z f . L-
W
, z. S
EV PHEV.
F, GEV
, -
GEV
.
T $7,500
GEV
1-2 ; $15,000 3
- ; $20,000
4-5 - ; $25,000
6-7 - . T
2015,
z 2020.
I ,
ICE, HEV,
PHEV-40 EV-100. F
,
PHEV
EV
.
FIGURE 3P
Lowest TCO Drivetrain Technology by Year and Segment – Operations Optimized
CLASS
Passenger
Class 1-2
Class 3
Class 4-5
Class 6-7
1
2
9
10
3A
4A
3B
4B
5
6
7
8
22K
9K
36K
31K
19K
6K
23K
6K
31K
8K
26K
18K
Sales, Service, Utility
Government
Taxi
Rental / Car Sharing
Sales, Service, Utility, Short Haul
Light Government
Sales, Service, Utility, Short Haul
Light Government
Medium Short Haul
Medium Utility, Government
Heavy Short Haul
Heavy Utility, Government
SEG. NAME MI/YR 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2 020+
ICE H EV PHE V 40 / EV 100
Source: PRTM Analysis
FIGURE 3Q
Lowest TCO Drivetrain Technology by Year and Segment — Operations Optimized + Government Incentives
CLASS
Passenger
Class 1-2
Class 3
Class 4-5
Class 6-7
1
2
9
10
3A
4A
3B
4B
5
6
7
8
22K
9K
36K
31K
19K
6K
23K
6K
31K
8K
26K
18K
Sales, Service, Utility
Government
Taxi
Rental / Car Sharing
Sales, Service, Utility, Short Haul
Light Government
Sales, Service, Utility, Short Haul
Light Government
Medium Short Haul
Medium Utility, Government
Heavy Short Haul
Heavy Utility, Government
SEG. NAME MI/YR 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020+
ICE H EV PHE V 40 / EV 100
FIGURE 3O
Lowest TCO Drivetrain Technology by Year and Segment – Case (No Policy Incentives)
CLASS
Passenger
Class 1-2
Class 3
Class 4-5
Class 6-7
1
2
9
10
3A
4A
3B
4B
5
6
7
8
22K
9K
36K
31K
19K
6K
23K
6K
31K
8K
26K
18K
Sales, Service, Utility
Government
Taxi
Rental / Car Sharing
Sales, Service, Utility, Short Haul
Light Government
Sales, Service, Utility, Short Haul
Light Government
Medium Short Haul
Medium Utility, Government
Heavy Short Haul
Heavy Utility, Government
SEG. NAME MI/YR 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2 020+
ICE H EV PHE V 40 / EV 100
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FIGURE 3R
Total Cost of Ownership Delta for EV vs. ICE Segment 1 – Sales, Service, Utility (Base Case)
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
$0.09 Per Mile
“Sweet Spot” Annual Mileage
Annual Miles Driven
Source: PRTM Analysis
Critical Sensitivities Impacting TCO
T -
. I , -
, : , ,
.
B
, EV
2015 30
ICE
j 10
.
G ( )
-
. A 10
( )
30 EV
ICE . A -
- .
A
q
ICE . W f
,
f .
Cb Ip B C G P
O
,
GEV
. T ,
: Pessimistic
Case (2020 B C +15 %, 2010-2020 F C
-15% ) Optimistic Case ( 2020 B C -15%,
2010-2020 F C +15 ). A
, P S
O S
GEV .
Au Dvg D “Sw Sp”
I , ,
TCO
ICE 2018. T
z ,
. A
1 (, , )
F 3R. I ,
6,000 $0.08
EV ICE
2018. F
15,000 ,
EV ICE
.
W -
,
-
. F , -
100
q .
T
.
D
, -
. A ,
.
FIGURE 3U
Optimistic Scenario – Sales, Service, Utility Cars
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40
EV
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
$0.38
20302028202620242022202020182016201420122010
ICE PHEV 40 EV
Per Mile
TCO Advantage
Source: PRTM Analysis
FIGURE 3S
Base Scenario – Sales, Service, Utility Cars
TCO AdvantageICE
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
$0.38 Per Mile
20302028202620242022202020182016201420122010
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40
EV
HEV EV TCO AdvantageICE
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
$0.38 Per Mile
20302028202620242022202020182016201420122010
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40
EV
HEV EV
FIGURE 3T
Pessimistic Scenario – Sales, Service, Utility Cars
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40
EV
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
$0.38
20302028202620242022202020182016201420122010
ICE PHEV 40 EV
Per Mile
TCO Advantage
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CHAPTER 3.4
Case Studies
The ollowing case studies consider vehicle TCO in two cases: a base case and
optimization + policy case. Both cases are based on mainstream, consensus
industry cost data outlined in Chapter 3.2 and energy prices rom the reerence
case in the Department o Energy’s Annual Energy Outlook 2010. The key scenario
attributes are as ollows:
Base Case
T
. A . P
. O .
Optimized + Policy Case
T z +
f . B -
z z . T z +
-
- - .
Focus on Battery Right-Sizing
Due to the high cost of batteries relative to other electric drivetrain costs, battery cost optimization will receive attention from
manufacturers and eet operators alike. Signicant effort is already being dedicated to reducing the material, manufacturing, and
logistics costs of large-format batteries. In addition to these technological improvements, however, practical steps can be taken by
industry participants to minimize cost.
Operators of eet segments that do not fully utilize the maximum available capacity of EV and PHEV batteries will likely work with
battery manufacturers to optimize battery size for their required driving range. For example, in a low mileage segment such as segment
2 (government cars), the daily driving range is less than 40 miles, but available EVs are likely to provide 100-mile range capability. The 60
percent unused battery capacity becomes too expensive to offset through electricity cost savings until battery costs drop below $300/
kWh. However, if this segment were given the option of purchasing an EV with a 60-mile driving range, the vehicle cost savings would
exceed $4,000 in 2015. As a result, an EV could reach ownership cost parity with an ICE or HEV three years sooner than in the base case.
Offering eet specic congurations is commonly done today and would be a key enabler for making the economics of EVs and PHEVs
work for different eet segments sooner.
FIGURE 3V
Government Car TCO Before Right-Sizing
FIGURE 3W
Government Car TCO After Right-Sizing
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40
EV
0.40
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.50
0.52
0.54
0.56
0.58
$0.60
20302028202620242022202020182016201420122010
24 kWh Battery100 Mile CD Range
ICE HEV EV
Per Mile
TCO Advantage
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40
EV
14 kWh Battery60 Mile CD Range
0.40
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.50
0.52
0.54
0.56
0.58
$0.60 Per Mile
20302028202620242022202020182016201420122010
ICE EV TCO Advantage
Source: PRTM Analysis
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FIGURE 3X
2010-2020 xEV Total Cost of Ownership — Base Case
CASE STUDY / SEGMENT 1
Sales, Service, Utility Cars
Segment 1 vehicles—sales, service, and utility automobiles—are typically operated by
single drivers such as sales people, service employees, and utility employees. Their
average daily driving distance is approximately 71 miles and, while they don’t have
fxed routes, they do tend to stay within a consistent proximity to their base. Unlike
segments in which the vehicles are in operation or most o the day, this segment
tends to have longer periods o time when the vehicles are parked (during sales
meetings, service calls, and overnight, or example).
Total Cost o Ownership (Base Case)
D , -
-
. A F
3W, HEV
TCO ICE , -
2011.
A
,
. I EV,
-
$41,000
$33,000 2020 ( -
). A , q
ICE q
$2,000 -
2020
, j,
, .
I
2010 2020
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40
EV
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
$0.38 Per Mile
202020182016201420122010
ICE HEV EVTCO Advantage
VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS
At 71 miles, the average daily distance traveled or
this segment is conducive to EV-100 use. It is also high
enoughtodrivearelativelyastpaybackonuprontcosts.
For a PHEV-40, the assumed utility actor is 51 percent.
71 mi Average Distance
Segment Travels
EachDay
At approximately six years, the average ownership
duration or this segment would likely require battery
replacement or PHEVs and EVs. The timing o battery
replacement can signifcantly impact TCO.
6 years Average
Ownership
Duration
In 2010, charging inrastructure cost per segment
1 vehicle is $3,800 assuming workplace, home, and
some public charging or EV-100. By 2020, the cost is
expected to all to $2,400.
$3,800Infrastructure
Cost Per
Vehicle
OPERATIONAL SPECIFICATIONS
Home Charging + Roaming
Since these vehicles are oten assigned to employees and can be used or
personal driving in addition to work-related trips, they typically are taken
home by employees at night and are not returned to a central depot. As
a result, the charging inrastructure needed to support this segment is adistributed network, including inrastructure at the employees‘ homes as
well as some public inrastructure to support occassional trips in excess
o the average.
Vehicle Specications
ICE 2010 2020
Base Drivetrain 3.0L SI / 6Spd. Auto 3.0L SI /6 Spd. Auto
Base Engine Cost $1,450 $1,300
Base Transmission Cost $1,200 $1,100
Exhaust System Cost $600 $575
Fuel System Cost $100 $90
Mandated Fuel Efciency Improvements($/% of MPG increase)
$25 $50
Fuel Economy 23 MPG 32 MPG
PHEV-40 2010 2020
Electric Range 40 mi 40 mi
Battery Cost $660 $358
Battery Size 12 kWh 12 kWh
PHEV-40 Battery Life 150,000 150,000
Electric Motor Cost $990 $540
Inverter Cost $1,620 $900
Charger Size 3.3 kW 3.3 kW
On-Board Charger Cost $580 $390
Source: PRTM Analysis
HEV 2010 2020
Battery Cost $1,200 $650
Battery Size 1.5 kWh 1.5 kWh
HEV Battery Life 200,000 mi 200,000 mi
Electric Motor Cost $770 $420
Inverter Cost $1,260 $700
EV-100 2010 2020
Battery Cost $600 /kWh $325 /kWh
Battery Size 24 kWh 24 kWh
EV Battery Life 125,000mi 125,000
CD Range Efciency 4.0 mi/kWh 4.6 mi/kWh
Electric Motor Cost $990 $540
Inverter Cost $1,620 $900
Charger Size 5 kW 5 kW
On-Board Charger Cost $875 $600
1-Spd Transmission $400 $380
INFRASTRUCTURE TOPOLOGY
4-Door, 5-Passenger Car
Gross Vehicle Weight:
Up to 6,000 lbs.
Typical Trunk Space:
16 cu. t.
Typical Dimensions:
70" x 190" x 55" (WxLxH)
Typical Passenger Volume:
100 t3
ChargeDepleting
Range
Service Area
Central Charger Depot Ba nk Public Cha rger
Fast Charger Home Charger
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-
, ICE
$26,300 2010 $28,000 2020.
A , ICE
40 2020,
$2.57
2010 $4.08 2020. A , -
2016 PHEV-40
ICE . B 2018, -
—
EV PHEV-40 HEV—
TCO EV PHEV-40
HEV.
Operational Variables
W
’ ,
j z
. O
. F 1,
(
). T
-
150,000 . A , /130,000
.
F EV, -
ICE
. A ,
EV 1. H,
.
W EV
125,000 , -
1. S
q ,
q. T
-
(
1). E EV
EV
$0.07 —
. T
EV
ICE
.
Policy Variables
T
$7,500
. W , GEV -
1
. A F 3Y,
z
HEV PHEV-40 2012,
EV 2015.
FIGURE 3Y
2010-2020 xEV Total Cost of Ownership — Optimized with Incentives
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.23
$0.24 Per Mile
202020182016201420122010
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40
EV
HEV PHEV 40 EV TCO Advantage
CASE STUDY / SEGMENT 3A
Light Sales, Service, Utility, Short Haul
Segment 3a vehicles—light sales, service, utility, and short-haul trucks—are typically
pooled vehicles operated by sales people, service employees, utility employees, and
short-haul delivery company employees. Their average daily driving distance is 75
miles and they tend to stay within a consistent distance rom the depot at which
they are let overnight. The consistency o the routes varies between applications
within segment 3a. It can be very consistent in segments such as short haul and
highly variable in segments such as utility.
VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS
INFRASTRUCTURE TOPOLOGY
At 75 miles, the average daily distance traveled by this
segmentisconducivetoEV-100use.Itis alsohighenough
to drive a relatively ast payback on upront costs. The
assumed utility actor or PHEV-40s is 48 percent.
75 mi Average Distance
Segment Travels
EachDay
At seven years, the average ownership duration
or this segment would likely necessitate battery
replacement. The timing o battery replacement can
have a signifcant impact on TCO.
7 Years Average
Ownership
Duration
The 2010 charging inrastructure cost or segment
3a vehicles is $3,400, assuming predominantly Level
II charging. By 2020, the cost is expected to all to
$2,400 per vehicle.
$3,400Infrastructure
Cost Per
Vehicle
OPERATIONAL SPECIFICATIONS
Central Depot
The vehicles are returned to a central depot at the end o each daywhere they can be charged overnight. The vast ma jority o the charging
requirements or these vehicles are likely to be supported by overnightLevel II charging. Daytime charging away rom the depot is rarely
required as these vehicles will not typically travel urther than the CD
range o an EV-100.
Class 1-2 Truck
Gross Vehicle Weight:
6,000–10,000 lbs.
Typical Cargo Volume:
60 t3
Typical Dimensions:
74" x 205" x 80" (WxLxH)Extended Cab Capacity:
5 Passengers
ChargeDepleting
Range
Service Area
Central Charger Depot Ba nk Public Cha rger
Fast Charger Home Charger
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Total Cost o Ownership (Base Case)
T 19,000
f
“ ” . I
, HEV -
2011. F , EV
HEV 2018,
.
B 2010 2018, EV
$8,000 HEV
$1,000. M,
EV $100 2010 2018
HEV
$2,000 .
Operational Variables
A 1,
ICE
EV. T
/130,000 . W
EV 125,000 ,
. T
-
. T ,
. B
10 , EV 2018
$0.05
2018 HEV -
$0.04
Policy Variables
W - EV 3
-
,
- . T
, 1-2
,
$7,500 . T $7,500
F 3AA. T
-
PHEV-40 2012 EV 2014.
FIGURE 3AA
2010-2020 xEV Total Cost of Ownership — Optimized with Incentives
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40
EV
0.15
0.17
0.19
0.21
0.23
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.31
$0.33 Per Mile
202020182016201420122010
HEV PHEV 40 EV TCO Advantage
FIGURE 3Z
2010-2020 xEV Total Cost of Ownership — Base Case
ICE
PHEV 40
HEV
EV
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
$0.40 Per Mile
202020182016201420122010
HEV EV TCO Advantage
Vehicle SpecicationsICE 2010 2020
Base Drivetrain 4.3L Gas /2WD Auto 4.3L Gas /2WD Auto
Base Engine Cost $2,030 $1,820
Base Transmission Cost $1,800 $1,650
Exhaust System Cost $840 $840
Fuel System Cost $140 $126
Mandated Fuel Efciency Improvements($/% of MPG increase)
$30 $60
Fuel Economy 16 MPG 21 MPG
PHEV-40 2010 2020
Electric Range 40 mi 40 mi
Battery Cost $660 $358
Battery Size 14.3 kWh 14.3 kWh
PHEV-40 Battery Life 150,000 mi 150,000 mi
Electric Motor Cost $1,188 $648
Inverter Cost $1,944 $1,080
Charger Size 4 kW 4 kW
On-Board Charger Cost $693 $475
Source: PRTM Analysis
HEV 2010 2020
Battery Cost $1,200 $650
Battery Size 1.8 kWh 1.8 kWh
HEV Battery Life 200,000 mi 200,000 mi
Electric Motor Cost $924 $504
Inverter Cost $1,512 $840
EV-100 2010 2020
Battery Cost $600 /kWh $325 /kWh
Battery Size 29 kWh 29 kWh
EV Battery Life 125,000 mi 125,000 mi
CD Range Efciency 3.1 mi/kWh 3.5 mi/kWh
Electric Motor Cost $1,188 $648
Inverter Cost $1,944 $1,080
Charger Size 6 kW 6 kW
On-Board Charger Cost $1,050 $720
1-Spd Transmission $600 $570
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CASE STUDY / SEGMENT 4A
Light Government
Segment 4a vehicles—government light trucks—are typically pooled vehicles
operated by ederal, state, and local government employees. Their average
daily driving pattern consists o a driving distance o 22 miles originating at a
government depot and ollowing a route that is typically highly predictable. A
typical application would be a pickup truck used by department o transportation
employees to travel between dierent road construction sites.
Total Cost o Ownership (Base Case)
T 6,000
4 q
GEV
ICE. I 2010, EV
$18,000. M,
,
EV $4,500. B
2020, EV
ICE . T
EV -
$11,000 EV
$5,800. I 2022
f
-
EV.
Operational Variables
D ,
10
GEV -
. A
, q
z . T
VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS
At22miles,theaveragedailydistancetraveledor
thissegmentistechnicallyconducivetoEV-100use;
howeverreaso nable payback periods would require
battery right-sizing.TheutilityactororPHEV-40sis
100percent.
22 mi Average Distance
Segment Travels
EachDay
At 10 years, the ownership duration o segment 4a
vehicles would not necessitate battery replacement
based on the daily miles traveled. Battery right-sizing
could change this, however.
10 Years Average
Ownership
Duration
The 2010 cost or charging inrastructure or segment
4a is $3,400, assuming predominantly Level II
charging. By 2020, the cost is expected to all to
$2,400 per vehicle.
$3,400Infrastructure
Cost Per
Vehicle
OPERATIONAL SPECIFICATIONS
FIGURE 3BB
2010-2020 xEV Total Cost of Ownership
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40EV
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
$0.85 Per Mile
202020182016201420122010
ICE HEV TCO Advantage
Vehicle Specications
ICE 2010 2020
Base Drivetrain 4.3L Gas /2WD Auto 4.3L Gas /2WD Auto
Base Engine Cost $2,030 $1,820
Base Transmission Cost $1,800 $1,650
Exhaust System Cost $840 $805
Fuel System Cost $140 $126
Mandated Fuel Efciency Improvements($/% of MPG increase)
$30 $60
Fuel Economy 16 MPG 21 MPG
PHEV-40 2010 2020
Electric Range 40 mi 40 mi
Battery Cost $660 $358
Battery Size 14.3 kWh 14.3 kWh
PHEV Battery Life 150,000 150,000
Electric Motor Cost $1,188 $648
Inverter Cost $1,944 $1,080
Charger Size 4 kW 4 kW
On-Board Charger Cost $693 $475
Source: PRTM Analysis
HEV 2010 2020
Battery Cost $1,200 $650
Battery Size 1.8 kWh 1.8 kWh
HEV Battery Life 200,000 mi 200,000 mi
Electric Motor Cost $924 $504
Inverter Cost $1,512 $840
EV-100 2010 2020
Battery Cost $600 /kWh $325 /kWh
Battery Size 29 kWh 29 kWh
EV Battery Life 125,000 mi 125,000 mi
CD Range Efciency 3.1 mi/kWh 3.5 mi/kWh
Electric Motor Cost $1,188 $648
Inverter Cost $1,944 $1,080
Charger Size 6 kW 6 kW
On-Board Charger Cost $1,050 $720
1-Spd Transmission $600 $570
Class 1-2 Truck
Gross Vehicle Weight:6,000–10,000 lbs.
Typical Cargo Volume:
60 t3
Typical Dimensions:
75" x 205" x 80" (WxLxH)Extended Cab Capacity:
5 Passengers
Central DepotSimilar to the commercial segment, these vehicles are returned to a
central depot where they can be charged overnight. The vast majority o
the charging requirements or these vehicles are likely to be supportedby overnight charging. Daytime charging away rom the depot is almost
never required as these vehicles will rarely travel urther than the CDrange will support.
INFRASTRUCTURE TOPOLOGY
Central Charger Depot Ba nk Public Cha rger
Fast Charger Home Charger
ChargeDepleting
Range
Service Area
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q z
. B -
,
100- - .
H, ,
22 . A 66 -
, q -
36 .
I CD
40 ,
60 ,
EV
$10,000 2010,
. A F 3CC,
EV
2015,
. S
EV PHEV-40
EV
ICE .
Policy Variables
N
. H,
P F -
, , .
FIGURE 3CC
2010-2020 xEV Total Cost of Ownership Optimized for Application
ICEHEV
PHEV 40
EV
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
$0.75 Per Mile
202020182016201420122010
ICE EV TCO Advantage
CASE STUDY / SEGMENT 5
Medium Short Haul, Sales & Service
Segment 5 vehicles—medium duty, short haul, sales and service trucks—are used
or hauling heavier loads or a variety o applications. These are typically higher
mileage vehicles with driving distances averaging around 100 miles per day. Most
applications will originate rom a depot and will typically have at least eight hours
o non-operating time at the depot every day. A common application in segment 5
is a delivery vehicle.
VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS
INFRASTRUCTURE TOPOLOGY
At 100 miles, the average daily distance traveled or
this segment is conducive to EV-100 use. It is also high
enough to drive a relatively ast payback on upront
costs. The utilization rate or PHEV-40s is 36 percent.
100 mi Average Distance
Segment Travels
EachDay
The 10-year average ownership period o vehicles
in this segment would include at least one battery
replacement based on daily miles traveled.
10 Years Average
Ownership
Duration
The 2010 inrastructure cost or segment 5 vehicles
is $3,700 assuming some access to public charging
is required. By 2020, the cost is expected to all to
$2,200 per vehicle.
$3,700Infrastructure
Cost Per
Vehicle
OPERATIONAL SPECIFICATIONS
Class 4-5 Truck
Gross Vehicle Weight:
14,001–19,500 lbs.
Typical Cargo Volume:
320 t3
Typical Dimensions:
90" x 230" x 96" (WxLxH)Standard Cab Capacity:
3 Passengers
CENTRAL DEPOT + PUBLIC CHARGINGDue to the high mileage o many o the vehicles within the segment,
there will be some daytime charging. Due to the high utilization o these
vehicles, ast charging will likely be needed to fll a portion o the daytimecharging needs. Additionally, there may be applications or which Level 2
public charging is used during the day (where the vehicle is parked or asufcient amount o time to "top-o“).Charge
DepletingRange
Service Area
Central Charger Depot Ba nk Public Cha rger
Fast Charger Home Charger
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Total Cost o Ownership (Base Case)
T 30,000
, ,
GEV
z. A
F 3DD, EV
ICE 2015 HEV 2016. M
, -
. I , 2010
EV $47,000
ICE. O 10
-
, EV
2010 $45,000. A,
,
$13,000
EV ICE . H,
, $49,000
q
10 , 300,000 . A
,
EV 2010
ICE
$33,000.
B 2015, EV
ICE,
$47,000 $30,000. T ,
-
,
2015 ( $49,000 $34,000).
A ,
EV
2015 $45,000 $50,000.
O, 2015, ICE EV -
$156,000
.
Operational Variables
I , z
. W 5 -
10 /300,000 ,
. H, ,
. T
ICE EV
.
Policy Variables A ,
GEV. T -
, -
.
F 5, $20,000 EV
PHEV-40. A F 3DD,
PHEV-40
ICE HEV 2012 EV
2015.
FIGURE 3EE
2010-2020 xEV Total Cost of Ownership Optimized with Incentives
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
$0.60 Per Mile
202020182016201420122010
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40
EV
ICE TCO AdvantagePHEV 40 EV
FIGURE 3DD
2010-2020 xEV Total Cost of Ownership
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
$0.65 Per Mile
202020182016201420122010
ICE
HEV
PHEV 40
EV
ICE HEV EV TCO Advantage
Vehicle Specications
ICE 2010 2020
Base Drivetrain 6.7L Diesel /Auto 6.7L Diesel /Auto
Base Engine Cost $5,500 $5,225
Base Transmission Cost $4,500 $4,275
Exhaust System Cost $2,500 $2,375
Fuel System Cost $2,000 $1,900
Mandated Fuel Efciency Improvements($/% of MPG increase)
$43 $86
Fuel Economy 10 MPG 13 MPG
PHEV-40 2010 2020
Electric Range 40 mi 40 mi
Battery Cost $660 $358Battery Size 12 kWh 12 kWh
PHEV-40 Battery Life 150,000 mi 150,000 mi
Electric Motor Cost $3,713 $2,025
Inverter Cost $6,075 $3,375
Charger Size 6.6 kW 6.6 kW
On-Board Charger Cost $1,733 $1,584
Source: PRTM Analysis
HEV 2010 2020
Battery Cost 1,440 780
Battery Size 5 kWh 5 kWh
HEV Battery Life 200,000 mi 200,000 mi
Electric Motor Cost $2,888 $1,575
Inverter Cost $4,725 $2,625
EV-100 2010 2020
Battery Cost $720 /kWh $390 /kWh
Battery Size 65 kWh 65 kWh
EV Battery Life 125,000 mi 125,000 mi
CD Range Efciency 1.5 mi/kWh 1.8 mi/kWh
Electric Motor Cost $3,713 $2,025
Inverter Cost $6,075 $3,375
Charger Size 10 kW 10 kW
Onboard Charger Cost $2,625 $1,800
Single Speed Transmission Cost $1,800 $1,710
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CHAPTER 3.5
Fleet Adoption o GEVs in 2015
While competitiveness timerames vary by drivetrain confguration and industry
segment, eet customers in aggregate could contribute substantial sales volumes
to the early GEV industry, helping to achieve economies o scale and drive down
costs or the broader consumer market.
T
.
H,
.
F
EV. F ,
EV,
. T -
, -
. C ,
z :
Lw:M I F O (N
, )
M: O C L B C
Hg: S D C
O P (.. )
C TCO,
GEV
.
B , -
. T
TCO
. C, -
-
TCO .
A
GEV
. H,
z -
, GEV -
. I ,
TCO
. I ,
.
T -
.
A , GEV
S-C
. U -
-
. V
z z-
-. G ,
GEV 2015
. V ,
- ,
GEV 1 2 -
2015. I , GEV
30,000 2015 2015 GEV
5 0,000 .
H, -
2015,
GEV.
I , -
2011 2015,
6 7
- . T
130,000 2015
2015 200,000 GEV.
FIGURE 3FF
2015 GEV Attractiveness – Base Case
S1-Sales, Svc
GEV TCO Benefits vs. ICE/HEV
Greater Switch DifficultyLess Switch Difficulty
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
$25,000
S2-Gov. Car
S9-Taxi
S10-Rental
S3a-C1-2 Sales Trk
S4a-C1-2 Gov. Trk
S3b-C3 Sales, SvcS4b-C3 Gov. Trk
S5-C4-5 Svc TrkS6-C4-5Gov. Trk
S8-C6-7 Gov. Trk
S7-C6-7 Short Haul
HIGH MED LOW
S7-C6-7 Short Haul
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
$25,000
S1-Sales, Svc
GEV TCO Benefits vs. ICE/HEV
HIGH MED LOW
Less Switch Difficulty
S2-Gov. Car
S9-Taxi
S10-Rental
S3a-C1-2 Sales Trk
S4a-C1-2 Gov. Trk
S6-C4-5Gov. Trk
S8-C6-7Gov. Trk
S5-C4-5 Svc Trk
S3b-C3 Sales, Svc
S4b-C3 Gov. Trk
Greater Switch Difficulty
FIGURE 3GG
2015 GEV Attractiveness – Optimized + Incentives
Note: This analysis did not assume that purchase incentives would be available to government agencies. However, policy changes, such as making all tax credits transferable, would make it
possible for public sector entities to take advantage of incentives and could increase the uptake of GEVs above the levels envisioned by this report.
Source: PRTM Analysis
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M ,
q - (EV PHEV) -
200,000
- .4 T
$7,500,
$5,000 .5
T -
A . P
:
, CO2 -
, A
A . H, -
-
-, -, - .
P T R
EV PHEV -
-
. T
-
ICE -
. M,
. B -
, PHEV EV ’
-
’ CO2 . A ,
q ,
,
.
T -
- - GEV -
, C
$15,000 q
- 3 . T
$20,000 - 4-5
$25,000 - 6-7 .
A 2015,
. T, ,
2015.
B 2016,
z 2020.
4 ARRA,S1141
5 DOE,EERE,AF A V DC,
://...////CA/8161
Policy Recommendation
Create clean renewable energy bonds
or eet vehicle charging inrastructure,
and make municipal and regional transit
authorities eligible or the bonds.
C (CREB)
U S
. CREB
q j
. T
CREB ,
, ’ . T
.
C CREB E T
I A 2005. E
j .
T A R R A
CREB . T -
z $2.4 q -
,
. S,
CREB -
/
,
.
T CREB
10 -
- 25
- - . T
GEV
. I
, CREB
-
q. T CREB
-
,
.
Policy Recommendation
Create tax credits or medium- and
heavy-duty grid-enabled vehicles
deployed in eets with greater than
10 vehicles in operation.
A O 2010,
- - -
14,000 . C
-
D 31, 2005.1 C -
HEV D 31, 2010, -
$3,400. 2 C
60,000 ,
2010.3 S -
.
1 DOE,FE.,FTC H,
://..//_.
2 Id.
3 Id.
Public Policy and the Tax Code
The Electrication Coalition is proposing a broad range o policies to promote the deployment
o HEVs, PHEVs and EVs into eets. Several o those policies involve the creation o tax credits.
Lawmakers’ use o the tax code to promote policy outcomes is not without controversy. Most
pointedly, several observers have suggested that such policies would be more appropriately
designed as grants or other programs subject to appropriations.
However, while it may have been more practical to implement programs similar to those
proposed by the Electrication Coalition through appropriated unds, that may not currently be
the case. Clearly, Congress and the president have the ability to change the l aw at any time. Yet,
provisions in the tax code are generally regarded as more certain than other types o government
incentives. That certainty acilitates adoption o the actions that the policies are i ntended to
promote. Stated dierently, tax credits are more likely to achieve their stated goal than programs
supported by appropriated unds, the availability o which oten uctuates rom year to year.
Accordingly, the tax code has been used to support the energy industry in particular or decades.
Tax incentives have long been available to the oil and gas industry, the renewable power industry,
the appliance industry, and the automotive industry. In short, because businesses making long
term investments are oten unwilling to make them in the absence o nancial certainty, it has
become common practice to use the tax code to support the nation’s energy policy priorities. Use
o the tax code also oers a transparent opportunity to ensure that tax expenditures in support
o dierent vehicle technologies are established based on a neutral metric.
Finally, there is a clear and well developed means to deliver incentives oered through the tax
code to their intended beneciaries. New programs supported by appropriated unds oten
require the development o a new inrastructure to distribute the available unds. That process
can be expensive, take substantial time, and still not achieve intended results. The Department
o Energy’s loan guarantee program, or instance, is a well documented example o a program
established to assist an industry that took years to g et o o the ground and ailed to deliver the
benets Congress made available to the intended beneciaries.
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Policy Recommendation
Make tax credits or the purchase
o qualiying grid-enabled vehicles
and related charging inrastructure
transerable.
A E R,
, . A
. U ,
,
’ . S
, ,
.
I , ,
. S
-
EV PHEV .
O -
f
.
T ,
q -
.
M
f -
z z
.
W
,
. I C
,
.
Policy Recommendation
Incentivize the establishment o special
purpose entities to acilitate bulk
purchasing o electric drive vehicles
by eet operators.
I , -
PHEV EV,
,
. A , -
OEM
EV PHEV,
.
H,
—
.
I ,
EV
PHEV . I OEM -
. T
, C
GEV
.
V
z
. T ,
, GEV. F
100 ,
q 20
GEV . F
500 ,
q 30 , 1,000
, q 40
GEV -
.
Policy Recommendation
Extend the existing tax credit or electric
vehicle charging inrastructure through
2018 and expand the range o eligible
costs to include upgrades perormed by
a utility to support eet electrication
and to acility owners or electrical
power distribution equipment upgrades
necessary to operate and monitor
charging inrastructure.
I , q-
GEV
. T
— -
— ( -
). I
-
,
. W -
, ,
,
. M, -
-
. E ,
, , ,
q,
.
E
50 $50,000
q
2010. C
2018. M, C
-
10 -
-
25 - -
F, C
GEV -
j .
10 – 25 vehicles.....................................$125,000
26 –100 vehicles..................................$300,000
100 + vehicles .......................................$600,000
Policy Recommendation
Allow immediate expensing o GEV
purchases and supporting inrastructure
or operators o eets that purchase or
have purchased at least 10 centrally-
charged grid-enabled vehicles in one year
or operate at least 25 centrally-charged
grid-enabled vehicles.
I ( )
-
-- -
. T
,
. T
q z
’ (
10-25 ) ’ -
( 5 ).
T f-
’
’ . F ,
$1,000 -j
$680
. I 10 , ,
’ -j
$785, $105 -
. F ’ , ,
$333 -
10- $270,
$63 . I , $105 -
$63 . 6 F
, , J T Of
,
;
z .
6 A 10% ,5%
35% .
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FIGURE 4B
Proposed Maximum Credit Available for Demonstrated Fuel Economy Gains
VEHICLE WEIGHT 20% GAIN 30% GAIN 40% GAIN 50% GAIN
8,500-14,000 lbs n/a $3,000 $4,500 $6,000
14,001–26,000 lbs n/a $3,000 $9,000 $12,000
26,001–33,000 lbs n/a $12,000 $18,000 $24,000
> 33,000 lbs $10,000 $20,000 $24,000 $24,000
Policy Recommendation
Establish a program to guarantee the
residual value o the rst generation o
large-ormat automotive batteries put
into service between 2010 and 2013.
T q
PHEV EV. E
f
q ,
,
,
,
. T, “”
,
.
T , , q
f “” ,
:
- -
,
-
. I , , f -,
,
. B -
60
80 ,
PHEV EV
.
T D E -
-
-
:
1. T -
,
, q
.
2. T q $50 W -
. T
50
-
, .
3. F ,
,
. I ,
,
.
4. T -
. I
, D E -
. T
-
/
.
5. A
D E
.
CHAPTER 4.2
Other Policies
Fleet microsystems represent an important opportunity to accelerate adoption
o GEVs among commercial and government eet operators. Additional policies
benefcial to the broader market could help to reduce the risk o battery
purchases and help accelerate technological development.
Policy Recommendation
Reinstate and extend the tax credit or
medium- and heavy-duty gasolinehybrid electric vehicles that utilize
advanced batteries with energy and
power density equal to or greater
than lithium-ion batteries.
HEV
,
,
, . D ,
z, ’
HEV -
. H
,
, ,
, . Y,
E C’ ,
z -
, - , .
I HEV
-
- .
I 2005, C
- -
. T 20 40
j
’ f. T
, , 2009.
I 2010,
, . T EC
- - ,
, -
GEV ,
. T,
2009
-
S. 2854, S H K (D-WI )
O H(R-UT),
2014 z
- - j
. C -
,
z
q - .
FIGURE 4A
Expired Credit for Demonstrated Fuel Economy Gains
VEHICLE WEIGHT MAX FOR 30% FE INCREASE MAX FOR 40% FE INCREASE MAX FOR 50% FE INCREASE
8,501-14,000 lbs $1,500 $2,250 $3,000
14,001–26,000 lbs $3,000 $4,500 $6,000
> 26,000 lbs $6,000 $9,000 $12,000
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U , q-
. T
. T -
. I ,
. T q -
-
. I
,
.
Reinsurance Risk Mitigation
T
-
,
, EC
33
- -
. T q
,
, q
. A
’ ,
.
B
60
80 ,
PHEV EV
.
Policy Recommendation
Increase ederal investment in advanced
battery research and development.
T -
GEV . W
-
,
(R&D)
. C
,
, . B
. 7 B
.
7 EC,PRTM .
A 1973, U.S. R&D
$4 $14
, - j
$8 -
$6 . B 2004,
$5 . D -
R&D ,
A R
R A 2009, -
30
. (S F 4C)
T - -
GEV
. Y
,
, , . N
- -
, ,
,
’ . T I
E A -
2009 E P- H E V
T R
2010 , G G C E RD&D.
Policy Recommendation
Ensure that ederal motor vehicle
regulations do not unnecessarily prohibit
the development and deployment o cost-
eective PHEVs in large trucks.
C
(GVW) 10,000 . T -
-
. A 1 2
.
H, 10,000 GVW
q. I ,
10,000 .,
,
. 1O q
-
. F , -
10 185,000 .
C, z PHEV
. M
- . Dz PHEV
-
, f -
. I, - -
z -z
j , -
-
PHEV .
T q
- - PHEV. T
-
- . A
P T R , PHEV
ICE
. I
, , -
.
Policy Recommendation
Encourage ederal government adoption
o electric drive vehicles.
A , -
,
GEV. E O N. 13423, P
B 2007, 20
2
2005 2015 ( 20 -
). I PHEV
-
PHEV. E O N. 13514, P
O, q
2 2020
q E.O. 13423
2 2020 . I
PHEV q E.O. 13423 .
T
GEV
. B
,
FIGURE 4C
U.S. DOE Spending on Energy Research and Development
Source: Gallagher, K.S. and L.D. Anadon, "DOE Budget Authority for Energy Research, Development, and Demonstration Database," Energy Technology Innovation Policy, John F. Kennedy School
of Government, Harvard University, March 22, 2010.
FissionFusionEfficiency
Renewables
Fossil, includingCCT Demo
Hydrogen
Electricity T&D
ARPA-E
RE-ENERGYSE
Billions (2005$)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
$8
2010
2009 ARRA
2008200620042002200019981996199419921990198819861984198219801978
2011 Request
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CONCLUSION
Oil dependence ranks among the most pressing national
and economic security threats conronting the United
States today. The importance o oil to the U.S. economy has
necessitated an assertive oreign policy that emphasizes
security o supply in regions o the world rie with violence
and instability. The decline o conventional domestic
petroleum reserves has resulted in increased U.S. oil
imports, expanding the trade defcit and hastening the
export o American wealth abroad. More importantly, the
undamental dynamics driving oil price volatility in recent
years are not expected to signifcantly alter over the long
term. Rapidly expanding oil demand in emerging markets,
constrained growth in low-cost oil supplies, and thin spare
capacity margins will continue to make the market prone
to price shocks in the years to come. Recent history has
repeatedly demonstrated that oil price shocks requently
result in recession, public debt expansion, and high
unemployment or the United States.
B -
,
U S
. A -
U
S
-
. E
, ,
.
A
- A
2010 2011. T
. B -
z , ,
,
q -
j . T,
q.
T
-
- . C
j . H,
q
-
. A ,
-
, .
W -, -
-
j ,
GEV
. P 2011
2015,
-
. I ,
.
C
- -
- .
B ,
q q,
, , z
. T
f
z. P , - -
-
. I ,
-
z -
.
T,
. F
- , -
-
- - - .
T . E
q . A
-
q-
.
F, z
-
- .
T
-
. C
f ,
200,000
-
2015. P -
GEV
-
,
. I ,
.
C
E R, C
A
. A’
, , ,
. I
U S . A -
’ ,
q -
. O
: .
conclusion leet electriication roadmap140
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RANK/COMPANY CONTACT OWNED LEASED/MANAGED CARS CLASS 1-2 CLASS3-8 VANS SUVS XUV TOTAL
1AT&T
St. Louis, MOJeromeWebber
100% 7,409 25,300 14,178 24,092 3,249 0 74,228
2United Parcel Service (UPS)
Atlanta, GAMike Hance 100% 0 4,615 66,165 1,853 0 0 72,633
3Verizon
Irving, TX
Jay
Olshefski5 ,920 20, 224 23 ,0 35 1 5, 50 9 64,688
4Comcast Corp.
Philadelphia, PABud Reuter 100% 562 13,509 3,252 22,360 475 0 40,158
5Federal Express Corp.
Memphis, TN
Russell
Musgrove100% ARI 377 24,388 11,932 36,697
6Pfzer, Inc.
New York, NYFred Turco Wheels 100% 30,000 500 500 500 31,500
7Coca-Cola Enterprises
Atlanta, GAAry KayRunyan
100% 10,000 0 9,500 0 0 0 19,500
8Qwest Communications
Glendale, AZRobinKnuckey
90%Bank of America5%; GE Fleet 5%
300 10,000 2,500 6,500 50 0 19,350
9PepsiCo, Inc.Purchase, NY
Pete Silva 92% GE eet 8% 756 13,609 3,647 209 766 0 18,987
10ServiceMaster
Memphis, TN
Steve
Gibson32%
Wheels 35%; PHH
30%; GE Fleet 3%1,278 10,496 4,346 40 316 0 16,476
11Tyco International
Princeton, NJ
Kevin
Reynolds
GE eet 50%;
Wheels 50%2,278 3,932 6,819 2,250 304 14 15,597
12Siemens Shared Services, LLC
Iselin, NJ
Jim
McCarthy1%
Wheels 87%;
ARI 12%5,977 3,099 964 3,395 2,124 0 15,559
13Salvation Army
Alexandria, VABob Jones 400 0 5,000 9,600 0 0 15,000
14State Farm Mutual Auto
Insurance Co. Bloomington, IL
Dick
Malcom94%
Chrysler nancial4%; Toyota nancial
2%
10,952 126 38 3,216 38 6 14,376
15Oldcastle Materials Group
Atlanta, GARon Piccolo 85%
PHH; GE Fleet;Donlen
1,223 8,375 3,017 318 507 0 13,440
16Cox Enterprises
Atlanta, GAMarkLeuenberger
ARI; Ge eet;Wheels
1,352 4,285 1,592 4,502 1,399 0 13,130
17Sears Holding Corp.
Hoffman Estates, IL
Tiffany
Matthews200 0 0 11,200 468 0 11,868
18Quanta Services
Houston, TX
Butch
Christian15% 100 1,800 8,300 500 300 0 11,000
19Xerox Corp.
Rochester, NY
Paula
MorriseyGE eet 100% 450 175 0 9,750 75 0 10,450
20Merck & Co., Inc.
Whitehouse Station, NJScott Lauer
PHH 97%;
Wheels 3%8,558 92 31 1,056 20 233 9,990
21United Technologies Corp. (UTC)
Hartford, CT
Patrick
McGrath5% PHH 95% 2,650 2,425 765 3,276 760 0 9,876
22Sanof-Aventis
Bridgewater, NJSuzenMoye
ARI, GE, PHH,Wheels
9,600 0 0 0 0 0 9,600
23GlaxoSmithKline
Research Triangle Park, NCShirleyCollins
PHH 60%; ARi 40% 1,739 27 21 835 4607 1,976 9,205
24Genuine Parts Company
Atlanta, GAC hr is L an g 5 0%
ARI; Donlen; Mike
Albert; Suntrust3,110 5,789 150 0 0 0 9,049
25Chevron
San Ramon, CAKat Travis 80% ARI; GE Fleet 3,000 5,000 0 500 500 0 9,000
26Aramark Services, Inc.
Philadelphia, PA
Kevin
Fisher30%
GE Fleet 40%;
PHH 20%1,320 2,887 2,220 1,031 1,065 287 8,810
27Otis Elevator
Bloomeld, CT
Phil
SchreiberPHH 100% 2,028 2,500 1,100 3,000 100 0 8,728
RANK/COMPANY CONTACT OWNED LEASED/MANAGED CARS CLASS 1-2 CLASS 3-8 VANS SUVS XUV TOTAL
28Interstate Brands Corp.
Kansas City, MOSteve Long 75% ARI; LeasePlan 400 7,600 238 400 0 0 8,638
29Hewlett-Packard Co.
Anaheim, CA
Jeffrey
Hurrell100% GE Fleet 3,176 18 0 3,778 1,628 0 8,600
30Johnson & Johnson
New Brunswick, NK
Louise
Davis-
Lopez
32% GE Fleet 68% 6,558 60 0 635 0 1,264 8,523
31Novartis Pharmaceuticals
East Hanover, NJ
Lillian
Palmieri
LeasePlan 40%;
PHH 60%4,309 0 0 1,428 2,625 0 8,362
32Asplundh Tree Experts
Willow Grove, PA
Steve
Toeller200 4,000 4,000 90 0 0 8,290
33American Electric Power
Columbus, OH
Wayne
Farley377 3,993 2,419 989 290 0 8,068
34Church o Jesus Christ o
Latter Day Saints
Salt Lake City, UT
Michael
Simms100% 6,048 1,387 0 422 36 122 8,015
35 Dycom Industries, Inc.Palm Beach, FL
Lois Jacobs 8,000
36Advance Auto Parts
Roanoke, VA
Carol
Davies
ARI 75%; GE
20%;
First Fleet 5%
357 5,461 0 173 1,492 0 7,483
37United Rentals
Charlotte, NCCathyCrewson
3%
ARI 59%; PHH
14%;
Penske 6%;
Idealease 16%;
Ryder 2%
31 4,816 2,308 159 99 6 7,419
38Simplex Grinnell
Boca Raton, FL
Janice
BuxtonWheels 100% 7,400
39Johnson Controls
Plymouth, MI
Christy
Coyte
LeasePlan
90%; PHH 10%73 2,194 89 4,797 211 0 7,364
40Ecolab, Inc.
St. Paul, MNGayle Pratt LeasePlan 100% 1,522 2,482 12 3,030 264 0 7,310
41Farmers Insurance Group
Los Angeles, CA
Mark
Walters98% Donlen 2% 5,939 57 0 536 608 13 7,153
42UtiliX Corp.
Kent, WAMike Barry 6 6,900 200 25 0 0 7,131
43ExxonMobil Corp.
Fairfax, VAJudyCornet
100% 2,750 4,150 0 150 50 0 7,100
44ADT Security Services
Boca Raton, FL
Becky
Carrasco7,000
43ExxonMobil Corp.
Fairfax, VA
Judy
Cornet100% 2,750 4,150 0 150 50 0 7,100
44ADT Security Services
Boca Raton, FL
Becky
Carrasco7,000
45Embarq
Overland Park, KS
Kim Povirk 15% GE eet 85% 245 0 0 6,724 0 0 6,969
46Rollins, Inc.
Atlanta, GA
Paul
Youngpeter 1%
Emkay .05%;
Enterprise 0.5%;
Suntrust 95%;
Wheels 3%
667 6,205 9 6 51 0 6,938
47Pacifc Gas & Electric
Concord, CADave Meisel 8 2% 414 2,414 3,542 112 424 0 6,906
48Abbott
Waukegan, IL
Diane
LopezPHH 100% 1,553 72 0 2,356 2,819 0 6,800
49Crop Protection Services (CPS)
Greeley, CO
Christine
Chmiel12% 137 4,741 1,884 12 15 10 6,799
50AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals
Wilmington, DEKim Jamme 100% Wheels 6,200 0 0 400 0 0 6,600
Top 50 Commercial Fleets
Source: Fleet Automotive, 2010 Automotive Fleet Factbook
leet electriication roadmap142 ap pendi x a top 50 commercial leets
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MAKE MODEL TYPE DESCRIPTION/CLASS (IF APPLICABLE) BATTERY CAPACITY ELECTRIC MOTOR CAPACITY ELECTRIC DRIVING RANGE TOP SPEED PRICE TARGET INTRO
Audi e-tron EV 2 sports car based on the R8 42.4 kWh 230kW 154 mi 124mph - 1,000 car run with target intro 2012
BAIC C60 EV 4-door sedan - - - - - 2011 China
BMW MegaCity EV 2-door coupe 35 kWh 112kW 100 mi 95 mph - 2013
BYD Auto e6 EV 4 door crossover 48kWh 75kW 186 mi 87 mph - 2010 China 2010 Targeted US Launch
BYD Auto F3DM PHEV 4-door sedan 17 kWh - 60 mi - $22,000 2009 China
Chery Automobile Co. S18 EV 4-door compact 20kWh 40kW 93 mi 75 mph $22,000 Nov 2010 China
Citroën C-ZERO EV 4-door compact 16 kWh 47 kW 130 km 81 mph 35,000 euros Q4 2010 EU
Coda Automotive CODA Sedan EV 4-door, mid-size sedan 34kWh 100kW 90-120 mi 85 mph $45,000 California test eet mid-2010, public delivery fall 2010
DaimlerSmart ED (Electric
Drive)EV 2-door micro car 17kWh 30 kW 84 mi 62 mph - 2012
Fiat 500EV EV Small car - - - - - 2012
Fisker Karma PHEV Luxury 4-door 23kWh 300kW 50 mi 150 mph $88,000 2011
Fisker Nina PHEV Family sedan 20kWh - - - Est. $40,000 2012
Ford C-Max PHEV MPV - - - - - 2012 US
Ford Focus EV 4 door hatchback 23kWh 105kW 100 mi - - 2011 US
General Motors Chevrolet Volt PHEV 4-door hatchback 16kWh 111kW 40 mi 100 mph $40,000 Nov 2010 US
General Motors Opel Ampera PHEV 4-door hatchback 16kWh 111kW 40 mi 100 mph - 2011 EU
Honda EV-N EV 2-door, 4-seater micro car - - - - - 2012
Honda TBD PHEV Mid-size to large vehicle - - - - - 2012
Hyundai Blue On EV 4-door hatchback 16 kWh 49 kW 87 mi 80 mph - Korea second half of 2010, 2012 Globally
Lightning Car Company GT EV 2-door coupe - 300kW 150 mi 125 mph - 2012 UK
Luxgen EV+ EV 7-passenger minivan - 180kW 200 mi (@ 25mph constant) 90mph - Late 2010 Taiwan
Mitsubishi iMiEV EV 4-door hatchback / sub-compact 16 kWh 47 kW 100 mi 81 mph Below $30,000 Private sales in Japan Apr 2010, US 2011
Nissan LEAF EV 5-seater, 4-door hatchback / compact 24 kWh 80kW 100 mi > 90 mph $32,780 US & Asia in eets & limited areas 2010, globally 2012
Peugeot iOn EV 4-door hatchback sub-compact - 47 kW 93 mi - - End of 2010
Renault Fluence ZE EV 4-door sedan 22 kWh 70kW 100 mi 81 mph
"21,300 euros - 26,000 euros (excl.
battery) separate battery lease
from 79 euros per month"
Israel & Europe rst half 2011
Renault Zoe ZE EV Compact coupe - 60kW 100 mi 135 kph - 2012 Europe
REVA NXG EVNamed for "NeXt Generation", two-seater
with a targa roof- - 124 mi 81mph 23,000 euros 2013 Europe and India
REVA NXR EVNamed for "NeXt Reva", four-seat,
three-door hatchback family carLi-ion - 99 mi 65mph 14,995 euros 2012 Europe & India
SAIC Roewe 550 PHEV 4-door sedan Li-ion battery - - - - 2012 China
SAIC Roewe 750 EV 4-door sedan Li-ion battery - - - - 2012 China
Tazzari Zero EV 2-seater - - 88mi - $31,000 Mid- 2010 US
Tesla Motors Roadster EV 2-seater 56 kWh 248 hp 220 mi 125 mph Base price $109,000 plus options Available now
Tesla Motors Model S EV 4-door coupe, 7-seat42 kWh (standard
cong)-
150 mi, 230 mi & 300 mi
(based on battery option)130 mph $57,400 2012 USA & EU
Th!nk City EV City car, 2+2 seating 22kWh - 112 mi 62 mph - "Available in Norway 2012 U.S."
Toyota Prius Plug-in PHEV 4-door hatchback Li-ion batteries - 12.4-18.6 mi - -2010 to release 500 test eet cars in Japan, EU & USA,
Mass production 2012
Volkswagen Golf Blue e-motion EV 4-door hatchback 26.5 kWh 85kW 93 mi. - - 500 vehicle test feet in 2011. Launch in 2013.
Volkswagen E-Up! EV 2-door mini car - 60 kW 130km - - 2013
Volvo C30 EV Two-door, four-seater 24 kWh - 94 mi 81mph - 2011
Wheego LiFe EV Two-passenger mini car 30kWh 45kW 100 mi 65mph $32,995 Q4 2010 US
Available Vehicle Matrix — Passenger Portfolio
leet electriication roadmap144 appendix b available vehicle matrix
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MAKE MODEL TYPE DESCRIPTION/CLASS (IF APPLICABLE) BATTERY CAPACITY ELECTRIC MOTOR CAPACITY ELECTRIC DRIVING RANGE TOP SPEED PRICE TARGET INTRO
Boulder Electric
VehiclesTruck EV Class 3 Delivery truck 80kWh 80kW 120 mi 65 mph - Q2 2010 US
Boulder Electric
VehiclesTruck & WUV EV Class 2 van 80 kWh 80kW 200mi 70 mph - Q2 2010 US
Bright Automotive Idea PHEV Class 1-2 van 13kWh n/a 38mi n/a n/a 2013-14 US
DesignLine ECO-Smart I EV Bus (42 Passenger) 261.8kWh 240kW 120 mi. 76 kmph $600-700k more than traditional bus Available Now
EVIMedium Duty (MD)Trucks
& Walk-In (WI) VansEV Class 4, 5, 6 trucks 99 kWh Electric motor 150 kW scalable up to 90 mi. up to 60 mph $120K-$180K Available Now
Electrorides ZeroTruck EV Class 4 truck 50 kWh 100 kW Up to 75 mi. 60 mph $130K Available Now
Ford Transit Connect EV Class 1 Van 28 kWh 98kW 80 mi. 75 mph n/a 2010
IC Bus (Navistar) C E S er ie s P HE V S ch ool R ou te B us & C om me rc ia l B usLi-ion, liquid cooled
battery pack25-80kW Charge-depleting range 40 mi n/a $100K Available Now
Mercedes-Benz Vito E-CELL EV Van 36kWh 70kW 80 mi 50 mph - 2011
Modec Box Van EV Class 3 Truck / Van 52-85kWh 70kW 60-100 mi (depending on battery type) 50 mph - Available Now - EuropeNavistar eStar EV Class 3 Truck / Van 80kWh 70kW 100mi 50mph $149,000 Available Now - US
Optare Solo EV Bus EV Bus 80kWh 120kW 60 mi 56 mph - Accepting orders
Proterra EcoRide BE35 EV Bus (51 passenger) 74kWh 150kW 50 mi 65 mph - Available Now
Renault Kangoo ZE EV Compact commercial van 22 kWh 44kW 100 mi 130 kph (81 mph)20,000 euros (excluding battery)plus battery lease from 79 euros per month
Europe 2011
Sinautec Ultracap Hybrid Bus EV Bus - - 3.5mi 35mph - Available Now
Smith Electric Vehicles Edison EV Class 2 Van or Bus 40kWh 90kW 100 mi 50 mph - Available Now
Smith Electric Vehicles Newton EV Class 4-6 Truck 80kWh 120kW 100 mi 50 mph - Available Now
Available Vehicle Matrix — Commercial Portfolio
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1 50 ack no wl ed ge me nt s
Partners & Consultants
Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) is a nonpartisan, not-or-prot organization
committed to reducing America’s dependence on oil and improving U.S. energy security
in order to bolster national security and strengthen the economy. SAFE has an action-
oriented strategy addressing politics and advocacy, business and technology, and media
and public education.
Since 1976, PRTM has created a competitive advantage or its clients by changing the
way companies operate. The rm’s management consultants dene the strategies and
execution required or transormational change, through operational experience across
industry value chains and extensive work within the public sector. PRTM has 19 ofces
worldwide and serves major industry and global public sectors.
The Electrifcation Coalition would like to thank the entire team at GE Capital Fleet
Services and John E. Formisano and Associates or their invaluable contributions to
the Fleet Electrifcation Roadmap. We would also like t o thank Utilimarc, R.L. Polk
and Co., and Automotive Fleet or their assistance in assembling data or this report.
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Electrifcation Coalition 111 1 19th Street, NW Suite 406 Washington, DC 20036 TEL 202-461-2360 FAX 202-461-2379 ElectrifcationCoalition.org
The Fleet Electrifcation Roadmap is a comprehensive analysis o the
state o transportation electrifcation in the United States and the next
steps needed to deliver on the potential o grid-enabled vehicles. The
report explores the opportunities and challenges acing electrifcation
o commercial and government eets, identifes economically attractiveopportunities, and outlines a path to driving substantial eet demand or
grid-enabled vehicles between 2010 and 2015.