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Electric Vehicle Rebates in Disadvantaged Communities: Evaluating Progress with Appropriate Comparisons
Evaluation 2016 (AEA), 26 October 2016, Atlanta
Brett Williams, M.Phil. (cantab), Ph.D. – Principal Advisor, Clean Transportation
John Anderson – Junior Analyst & CVRP Transparency Specialist
Thanks also to Clair Johnson, Colin Santulli, and others at CSE
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Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE)
Building Performance
Clean Transportation
Distributed Generation
Energy Efficiency
Energy Storage
Renewable Energy
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CSE’s Plug-In & Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle (EV) Activities
Incentives Design & Administration
Fleet Assistance & Clean Cities
PEV, Alt.-Fuel, & ZEV Planning &
Implementation
Consumer & Dealer Outreach
Stakeholder Engagement
2nd Life Battery Research & Vehicle-
Grid Integration
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CSE has processed >163k rebates totaling ~$350M
California (CVRP), 2010–present
• Air Resources Board • 2007 Legislation (AB118, then AB8) allowing
vehicle registration fees • Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund
Massachusetts (MOR-EV), 2014–present
• Department of Energy Resources • Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
Connecticut (CHEAPR), 2015–present
• Department of Energy & Environmental Protection • Utility Settlement • Vehicle rebate and dealer incentive (consumer can also assign vehicle rebate to dealer)
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Where can I get the data?: CSE Transparency Tools
Also: zevfacts.com
cleanvehiclerebate.org
mor-ev.org
ct.gov/deep
• Public, online, interactive dashboards facilitate informed action – Data characterizing >163,000 EVs and consumers
– ~$350M in rebates processed
– >19,000 survey responses statistically represent >90,000 consumers
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Outline
• Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP) – Overview
– Requirements to benefit disadvantaged communities (DACs)
• Program Participation: DACs vs. CA as a whole – How many vehicles? Where?
• Indicators of Progress in DACs – Context is important
• Underlying Market Differences – To further calibrate expectations
• Recent Legislative Action
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Clean Vehicle Rebate Project Program overview and Requirement to benefit DACs
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Major CVRP-Eligible PHEVs, BEVs, ZEMs, and FCEVs (2016)
Plug-in hybrid EVs All-battery EVs
Zero-emission motorcycles Fuel-cell EVs
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Statewide Monetary Incentives
Battery Electric Vehicles (& i3 REx)
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Neighborhood Electric Vehicles
Zero-Emission Motorcycles
$2,500
$1,500
$900
$900
$7,500
$2,500–$7,500
CVRP Federal Tax
Credit
Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicles
$5,000 $8,000
Plug-in EVs or PEVs
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Legislative Background
• AB 32: CA Global Warming Solutions Act (2006) – Requires California to reduce its greenhouse gas
emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. – Allowed for the creation of a cap-and-trade program
• Cap-and-trade program begins (2012) – Proceeds from the auction of allowances are deposited
into the Green House Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF)
• SB 535 (2012) – Requires CalEPA to identify DACs (variety of criteria) – GGRF requirements
• ≥ 10% of funds to be spent on projects located within in DACs • ≥ 25% of funds should be spent to the benefit of DACs
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Disadvantaged Communities: CalEnviroScreen 2.0 (CES)
• State’s OEHHA scores each Census tract by combining various indicators of:
1. Exposure to pollution
2. Socioeconomic vulnerability
• Top scoring tracts are designated “Disadvantaged Communities” (DACs)
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Program Participation in DACs How many vehicles? Where?
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Cumulative California PEV Rebates
Approved rebate applications for BEVs and PHEVs purchased/leased thru 2015 as of 3 October 2016.
8,511
130,992
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rest of State
DACs
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New PEV Registrations by County (thru Dec 2015)
1,437
49,009
28,554
14,348
Includes content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.; Copyright © R.L. Polk & Co., 2015. All rights reserved
422
6,950
544
95
Overall Registrations by County DAC Registrations by County
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How is the program doing in DACs?
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Indicators of Progress in DACs Context is Important
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5.9%
37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
"In DACs" Goal (Census Tracts) "Benefitting DACs" Goal (ZIP Codes)
PEV Rebate Dollars to Disadvantaged Communities (Life of Program thru 2015)
“Benefitting DACs” Goal (Zip Codes)
“In DACs” Goal (Census Tracts)
Approved BEVs and PHEVs purchased/leased through Dec 2015 as of 3 October 2016.
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Are these appropriate indicators?
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Relative to what?
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Context Is Important (2015)
Includes vehicles purchased/registered in 2015. Population data from American Community Survey (B23001 and S0101), 2015 1-year estimates. Uses content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.; Copyright © R.L. Polk & Co., 2015. All rights reserved
0.12% 0.15%
2.3%
4.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
CA Population CA Driving AgePopulation (16+)
New LDV Sales New ComparableLDV Sales (low)
PEV
Re
bat
es
as a
Pe
rce
nt
of:
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Context Is Important (2015)
Includes vehicles purchased/registered in 2015. Population data from American Community Survey (B23001 and S0101), 2015 1-year estimates. Uses content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.; Copyright © R.L. Polk & Co., 2015. All rights reserved
0.12% 0.15%
2.3%
4.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
CA Population CA Driving AgePopulation (16+)
New LDV Sales New ComparableLDV Sales (low)
PEV
Re
bat
es
as a
Pe
rce
nt
of:
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Context Is Important (2015)
Includes vehicles purchased/registered in 2015. Population data from American Community Survey (B23001 and S0101), 2015 1-year estimates. Uses content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.; Copyright © R.L. Polk & Co., 2015. All rights reserved
0.12% 0.15%
2.3%
4.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
CA Population CA Driving AgePopulation (16+)
New LDV Sales New ComparableLDV Sales (low)
PEV
Re
bat
es
as a
Pe
rce
nt
of:
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Context Is Important (2015)
Includes vehicles purchased/registered in 2015. Population data from American Community Survey (B23001 and S0101), 2015 1-year estimates. Uses content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.; Copyright © R.L. Polk & Co., 2015. All rights reserved
0.12% 0.15%
2.3%
4.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
CA Population CA Driving AgePopulation (16+)
New LDV Sales New ComparableLDV Sales (low)
PEV
Re
bat
es
as a
Pe
rce
nt
of:
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New PEV Registrations: By County & Normalized to Comparable Sales (2015)
4%
4%
16%
5%
1,440
49,151
28,567
14,354
Includes content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.; Copyright © R.L. Polk & Co., 2015. All rights reserved
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DACs as a Percentage of Entire State (2015)
Includes vehicles purchased/registered in 2015. Population data from OEHHA CalEnviroScreen 2.0 (2014). Uses content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.; Copyright © R.L. Polk & Co., 2015. All rights reserved
~25% 18.0% 17.7%
7.3% 6.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Population(CES)
LDV Sales ComparableLDV Sales (low)
ZEV Sales Rebates
Rest of State DAC
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4.1%
1.4%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Statewide DAC
PEV
Re
bat
es
pe
r C
om
par
able
LD
V S
ale
45,854
2,946
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Statewide DAC
PEV
Re
bat
es
Rebates as a % of Comparable New Car Sales (2015 calendar year)
Includes vehicles purchased/registered in 2015. Uses content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.; Copyright © R.L. Polk & Co., 2015. All rights reserved
DACs = 34% of CA DACs = 6.4% of CA
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4.1%
1.4%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Statewide DAC
PEV
Re
bat
es
pe
r C
om
par
able
LD
V S
ale
45,854
2,946
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Statewide DAC
PEV
Re
bat
es
Rebates as a % of Comparable New Car Sales (2015 calendar year)
Includes vehicles purchased/registered in 2015. Uses content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.; Copyright © R.L. Polk & Co., 2015. All rights reserved
DACs = 34% of CA DACs = 6.4% of CA
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Underlying Differences
DAC PEV Consumers
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Weighted EV Consumer Survey: Overall and DACs (CVRP vehicles acquired Sep 2012 thru May 2015)
Center for Sustainable Energy (2016). CVRP Infographic: What Drives California’s Plug-in Electric Vehicle Owners? Retrieved 9/20/2016 from https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/content/infographic-what-drives-california-plug-electric-vehicle-owners
Overall:
DACs:
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Weighted EV Consumer Survey: Overall and DACs (CVRP vehicles acquired Sep 2012 thru May 2015)
Center for Sustainable Energy (2016). CVRP Infographic: What Drives California’s Plug-in Electric Vehicle Owners? Retrieved 9/20/2016 from https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/content/infographic-what-drives-california-plug-electric-vehicle-owners
Overall:
DACs:
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Housing: CVRP Overall and DACs
Center for Sustainable Energy (2016). CVRP Infographic: What Drives California’s Plug-in Electric Vehicle Owners? Retrieved 9/20/2016 from https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/content/infographic-what-drives-california-plug-electric-vehicle-owners
Overall: DACs:
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CVRP (All) CVRP (DAC) CHTS (All) CHTS (DAC)
$250,000 or more
$200,000 to $249,999
$150,000 to $199,999
$100,000 to $149,999
$75,000 to $99,999
$50,000 to $74,999
$25,000 to $49,999
Less than $24,999
CVRP and New-vehicle “Intender” Income Distributions: All vs. DACs
Weighted CVRP (2014) & weighted CHTS (2012) data
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Importance of Rebate: Overall and DACs
Center for Sustainable Energy (2016). CVRP Infographic: What Drives California’s Plug-in Electric Vehicle Owners? Retrieved 9/20/2016 from https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/content/infographic-what-drives-california-plug-electric-vehicle-owners
Overall:
DACs:
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Understanding Underlying Differences
DAC Plug-in Electric Vehicles by Product Type
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BEV 50%
PHEV 50%
CA
Technology Share: Sales
BEV 43%
PHEV 57%
DACs
Overall market data includes vehicles registered thru Dec 2015 and uses content licensed from and copyrighted by R.L. Polk & Co.
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BEV 50%
PHEV 50%
CA
BEV 59%
PHEV 41%
Rebates
Technology Share: Sales and Rebates
BEV 43%
PHEV 57%
DACs
Overall market data includes vehicles registered thru Dec 2015 and uses content licensed from and copyrighted by R.L. Polk & Co. Approved rebates thru December 2015.
BEV 54%
PHEV 46%
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Vehicle Replacement Rates
PEV Replaced Previous Vehicle Statewide DACs
PHEVs 72% 68% non-Tesla BEVs 56% 51%
EV Survey Total Responses: 16,306
Overall Time Frame: 9/1/2012–5/31/2015
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Recent Legislative Action
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Legislation: New CVRP Eligibility Requirements
*Income cap is deferred for consumers of fuel-cell electric vehicles
** Defined as ≤ 300% of the Federal Poverty Level
Took effect March 2016
To take effect November 2016
Consumer Income Cap*:
Single filers $250,000 $150,000
Head-of-household filers $340,000 $204,000
Joint filers $500,000 $300,000
Vehicle Requirement:
Electric range Must be ≥ 20 e-mi
Increased Rebate for Low-to-Moderate Income Households**:
$1,500 $2,000
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Increased Rebate Amounts for Low-to-Moderate-Income (LMI) Consumers
On November 1, 2016:
• The increased rebate amount will become $2,000
• Prioritization of rebate payments to low income consumers
Persons in household
Max Income*
1 $35,640
2 $48,060 3 $60,480 4 $72,900 5 $85,320 6 $97,740 7 $110,190 8 $122,670
* 300% of the Federal Poverty Level
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Statewide Monetary Incentives (as of 1 Nov.)
Battery Electric Vehicles (& i3 REx)
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Neighborhood Electric Vehicles
Zero-Emission Motorcycles
$2,500
$1,500
$900
$900
$4,500
$3,500
CVRP CVRP-LMI
(≤300% FPL)
Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicles
$5,000 $7,000
$900
$900
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LMI households are even more constrained in other ways (e.g., less frequently are home owners)
Rebate Recipients with Low-to-Moderate Income
CVRP LMI (2014)
CA Overall 4% - 10%
In DACs 10% - 25%
Weighted CVRP (2014) & weighted CHTS (2012) data
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Would NOT have purchased or leased vehicle without the state rebate (2014)
Weighted CVRP (2014)
Non-LMI: 46–47%
LMI: 52–55%
Outside DACs: 47%
In DACs: 51%
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Rebate Influence Importance of the rebate in making it
possible to acquire a PEV.
All <$60k MSRP >$60k MSRP
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Rebate Influence Importance of the rebate in making it
possible to acquire a PEV.
All <$60k MSRP >$60k MSRP
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Summary
• 5.9% of rebate funds have gone to DACs, but context is important: – Some “small markets” (e.g., Fresno) show similar EV market shares as L.A.
– DACs are 1/4th of the population, but only ~1/6th of new-car market and ~1/14th of the ZEV market
– Similarly, CVRP demographics differ less from new-car buyers than the population
• When normalized for comparable new-car sales, the rebate share in DACs is ~34% that of the state overall, not 6%
• Expectations should be further calibrated in light of underlying “structural” differences that make EV adoption more challenging in DACs – E.g., lower income, greater portion of MUDs and lower access to workplace charging
– Underlying proclivity for PHEVs is counter to incentive structure favoring BEVs
• The stated importance of the rebate is growing and is higher in DACs
• Measures to increase the proportion of low-to-moderate income program participants are underway, but add program complexity
• Expectations should be modest about how these LMI measures will affect DAC indicators, due to modest levels of LMI participants to date in DACs
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Data Sources
Program:
• CVRP EV Consumer Survey (n=19,460) – EV purchase/lease dates 9/2012–5/2015
– Weights applied to make responses represent 91,085 program participants along the dimensions of vehicle model, county, and buy vs. lease
• Applications (n=110,734) – EV purchase/lease dates 3/2010–5/2015
Market:
• EV Registration Data (Polk, N=150,287) – EV registration dates 3/2010–5/2015
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