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EGOWS 2008
The Beijing 2008 Nowcasting Forecast Demonstration Project
John BallyCAWCR
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Beijing ‘08
• WMO >> WWRP >> FDP
• Implement nowcasting science and systems for the Olympics
• Provide an enhanced weather service
• Technology transfer and training
• Quantify the benefits
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Beijing ‘08 Daily probability of rainfall in Beijing from August 1 to September 30
Olympics Paralympics
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Beijing ‘08 Vulnerabilities
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Beijing ‘08 Enhanced data collection.....
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Beijing ‘08 Many systems will be in Beijing...
BJANC (BMB&NCAR)
CARDS (MSC)
GRAPES-SWIFT (CMA)
MAPLE (McGill & WDT),
NIWOT (NCAR)
STEPS (CAWCR)
SWIRLS (HKO)
TIFS (CAWCR)
Real Time Verification (CAWCR)
Socio Economic Impacts Assessment
(BMB)
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Beijing ‘08 Many Systems will be in Beijing.....
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Beijing ‘08 How will we use so many systems?
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Beijing ‘08Which system is best ?
Real Time Forecast Verification
every 6 minutes
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Beijing ‘08 Web Page display for forecasters
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Beijing ‘08 Concentrate on some big risks….
High Impact Weather
Observed Frequency
Precipitation 35 %
Thunderstorm 25 %
Heavy Rain 6.5 %
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Beijing ‘08To make probability of flash floods
start with the rain already on the ground...
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Beijing ‘08 Look at the STEPS forecast...
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Beijing ‘08 And any other good forecasts you can get ... this one’s from the Hong Kong “SWIRLS” system
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Beijing ‘08 And do the stats on the ensemble to get the probability of hitting a threshold, given the obs rain..
..... Export the threat polygons to VIPS..
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Beijing ‘08 Rainstorm Warning Products issued by Chinese forecasters using realtime FDP information
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Beijing ‘08 Start with the TIFS interface…. single radar, single track-set TS Warning generation.....
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Thunderstorm strike probability
Histogram of storm detections wrt forecast (normalizedspeed and direction). after Dance, Ebert, Scurrah
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Mathematics
where (x, θ is a point in polar coordinates, t is forecast time, V is speed, σv is speed standard deviation, σ θ direction standard deviation. after Dance, Ebert, Scurrah
=
PDF that thunderstorm centre is over a point, based on Gaussian distribution in polar coordinates.
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Strike probability field (with contours) for storm over 1 hour (black = 1, white = 0)
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Beijing ‘08 Ensemble strike probability calculated in TIFS... Automated and Manual versions.....
..... Export the threat polygons to VIPS..
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Beijing ‘08 But not before the expert forecaster adjusts the nowcast....
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Beijing ‘08 During the adjustment ....
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Beijing ‘08 After adjustment ....
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Beijing ‘08 Thunderstorm and lightning threat products issued by Chinese forecasters using realtime FDP information