Download - Effects of the 3- Hour Tarmac Delay Rule Yi-Hsin Lin 15 December 2011 16.781 Final Project
The Tarmac-Delay Rule
• Response to series of highly publicized delayso Valentine’s Day 2007: 28 flights with tarmac delays over 3 hours
• Tarmac delays of over three hours result in a fine of up to $27,500 per passenger
• Requires airlines to provide food, water, working lavatories, and medical care if necessary to passengers for tarmac delays over two hours
• Exceptions for safety, security, and air traffic control restrictions, but each case is reviewed by DOT
• Rule went into effect on April 29, 2010
First Fine: American Eagle
• First fine was issued last month: to American Eagle for 15 flights delayed at ORD on arrival
• ORD departures cancelled due to weather• No gates available for arriving flights• 608 passengers affected• Fined $900,000• Fine was much less than $16.7 million max
Success! But it’s not that simple…
• DOT says tarmac rule has been highly successful
• Airlines and some analysts claim that the rule is worse for consumers
1. Increased cancellation rateso May 2009-April 2010: 102200 of 6417992 flights (1.6%)o May 2010-April 2011: 120401 of 6350073 flights (1.9%)
2. More unnecessary gate returns Longer delays
A Note on Datasets• Data comes from the BTS website (
www.transtats.bts.gov)
• Does not contain all US domestic flights, only major carriers
• Data from 2007 through September 2011
Monthly Tarmac Delays and
Cancellation RatesTarm
ac
dela
ys o
ver
3
hou
rsC
an
cella
tion
Rate
(%
)
5/09-4/10: 1.6%
5/10-4/11: 1.9%
5/08-4/09: 1.7%
Monthly Delays and Cancellation Rates
(JFK)Tarm
ac
dela
ys o
ver
3
hou
rsC
an
cella
tion
Rate
(%
)
5/09-4/10: 2.6%
5/10-4/11: 3.2%
5/08-4/09: 2.8%
Without 27 December 2010 snowstorm: 2.9%
Daily Tarmac Delays and Cancellation
Rates (JFK)
Tarm
ac
dela
ys o
ver
3
hou
rsC
an
cella
tion
Rate
(%
)
June 2009 June 2011
Gate Return Statistics (JFK)
5/2008-4/2009
5/2009-4/2010
5/2010-4/2011
1/2011-9/2011
Dates(N = 5) 17 54 57 41
Gate Returns(N = 5) 96 387 405 403
GR Departure(N = 5)
85 (88.5%) 312 (80.6%)
344 (84.9%)
337 (83.6%)
Dates(N = 10) 0 10 6 12
Gate Returns(N = 10) 0 125 104 230
GR Departure(N = 10)
- 79 (63.2%) 78 (75.0%)180
(78.3%)Without 31 December 2009 snowstorm, 72.4%.
Tarmac Times for Gate Returns (JFK)
All gate returns
Gate returns resulting in departures
Cou
nts
Cou
nts
Conclusions• Drastic decrease in long tarmac delays• Increase in cancellation rate unclear• Few gate returns resulting in longer delays
• DOT has been reasonable in enforcing the rule• Rule doesn’t solve underlying congestion problem
Questions? Comments?
Valentine’s Day 2007• Massive snowstorm affecting the northeast• At JFK, 287 out of 336 departures cancelled
(85.4%)• Of 49 remaining departures, 16 had taxi out times
more than 3 hourso JetBlue flight 623 to HOU sat on tarmac for 7+ hours
• 253 out of 335 arrivals cancelled (75.5%)• Of 82 remaining arrivals, 8 diverted and 12 had
taxi in times more than 3 hourso JetBlue 850 from RSW sat on tarmac for 9+ hours
• 1697 3+-hour tarmac delays in 2007o 358 3+-hour tarmac delays at JFK
Traffic Management Initiatives
26 June 2009 9 June 2011
• 1522: FCAA08, 20-2Z• 1528: GDP, 20-3Z• 2043: GS, till 22Z• 2122: GS, extend till
23Z• 2216: FCAA08, 20-3Z• 2348: GDP, till 5Z
• 1625: FCAA05, 18-3Z• 1628: FCAA08, 18-3Z• 1831: GDP, 21-2Z• 1857: GS, till 20Z• 2004: GDP, till 3Z• 2211: GS, till 23Z• 2248: GS, extend till
0Z
Times are in UTC = EST + 4.