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Effects of Collective AttentionPatterns Where There Should Be NoneA Glimpse of Global Consciousness?
Invited Presentation for the Internationaal Jubileumcongres75 Jaar Wetenschappelijke Parapsychologie, Utrecht, 3 mei 2003
Yellow dots are nodes in the network. More than 50 hosts, Alaska to Fiji
Roger Nelson, http://noosphere.princeton.edu
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Historical Seeds of a Global Network1980 Conceptual design: Continuous REG monitorThen a decade of Intentional Mind/Machine experiments1993 Adapt laboratory REG experiment as ContREG1994 Laptop version, “Field” studies at ICRL, Esalen
FieldREG paradigm, Nelson & PEAR; Radin; Bierman1995 Assassination of Itzakh Rabin – Global Effect1996 O. J. Simpson verdict, Radin – 5 REGs1997 January Gaiamind Global Meditation – 14 REGs1997 September Princess Diana funeral ceremonies1997 November Freiburg Physiology and Psi conference1998 Gathering friends, resources, programming1998 August, Network is running, Embassy Bombings
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When you put a thing in order, and give it a name, and you are all in accord, it becomes.
- - From the Navajo, Masked Gods, Waters, 1950
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The EGG Project(aka the Global Consciousness Project)
International collaboration75 Scientists, Artists, Friends, …Network of host sites world wide
The tools: REG technology, Field applicationMake an EEG for the earth, an ElectroGaiaGramCollect continuous parallel sequences of dataIdentify engaging moments of global events
The question: Can we capture in correlations A glimmering of Global Consciousness?
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The technology is only now availableElectronics, Computers, Networking
High quality, micro- REG/RNG devicesSynchronized computers and softwareInternet transfer of data to central server
Automatic archiving, public accessFormal analyses and explorationsBackground, methods, poetic history
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A Random Event Generator (REG or RNG)
Mindsong REG
Orion RNG
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How it works: Here’s 1000 Trials from A physical random source
Each trial is the sum of 200 bitsLike tossing 200 coins and counting heads
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The binomial distribution of 1000 200-bit trials, compared with
Theoretical normal distribution
expected
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What happens to the data over time?Plot cumulative deviation from expectation
A General Case GCP Standard Analysis
Should be a Random Walk (a “drunkard’s walk”)
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A network of eggs around the world
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Here we see the raw trial dataFor a whole day, from 48 eggs
This is “Noise” – Is there a Signal?
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We can see better what’s happening by Plotting the cumulative deviations
Correlation Tilts … Variance Spreads
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Making a Summary StatisticCombining Data Across the Network
Meanshift (eggs show trend over time)Stouffer Z-Score = Sum of Z’s divided by root N of eggs
Square the Z and compose as 2 over the period of interest
Variance (eggs spread or compress)Inter-Egg Variance ¡ Sum of Z2 across EggsCompose with df over the period of interest
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When we make a composite across eggs, the cumulative deviation may show a trend
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Maybe a trend in the cumulative Deviation is Meaningful?
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Examples of the range ofPotential Global Events:
Natural disastersTerrible accidents
The beginning of warThe Pope’s pilgrimage
Grand celebrations Political excitement
Astrological hot spotsWorld-wide meditations
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The Pope’s 6-day pilgrimage to the middle eastAn occasion of hope for resolution of differences
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Political events, even big ones, are not necessarily of interest to the EGG
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Tearing the Social Fabric:
Terrorists Attack Civilians and Diplomats
Nato Bombs Kosovo to End Ethnic Cleansing
Taliban Destroy Ancient Buddhist Treasure
September 11 Enters History of the Earth
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Major disasters that engage us powerfullyOften correlate with big deviations
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An exploration of context: Six hours of dataAround the beginning of bombing in Kosovo
Formal TestOne Hour
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The Buddhas of BamiyanAfter
Before March 12 2001
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The destruction of a world treasureApproximate time, noon in Afghanistan
noon
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The World Trade Center
Fall, 2001
Carol M. Highsmith Al Dove
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The World Trade Center
September 11 2001
Tamara Beckwith
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On September 11 2001, early in the morning, a network of physical random event generators (called “eggs”) took on a striking trend. By 8:45 the non-random behavior was unmistakable. It peaked at about 10:30 with odds against chance of more than a thousand to one.
On 9/11 the data contained unique sequential structure
Creative Collective Attention Correlated Patterns in Data
Profound Engagement Shared Focus, Compassion, Emotion
On 9/11 the data showed extraordinary moments
On 9/11 deviations began that persisted for 2 days
The jagged red line shows three days of a measure (squared cumulative deviation of variance) that represents the composite randomness of 37 eggs.
On September 11, the data show clear structure where there should be none. The eggs became linked across distance and time in some subtle way that we do not yet know how to explain.
am
am
am
http://noosphere.princeton.edu
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…….…………………. Normal range of variation
This is not a physical or electromagnetic effect. It’s not due to extreme mobile phone use, or saturation TV.It appears to be related to our profound engagement.
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The destruction of the World Trade TowersSept 11 2001
A 50-hour trend followed the attacksContextual Exploration
Formal Test
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Sept 11 Radin prediction: Inter-egg Variance will fluctuate
Red is real data, Green is Pseudorandom
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Autocorrelation on Sept 11Structure where there should be none
Calculations: Peter Bancel
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What is there to say?
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Repairing the Social Fabric:
HealingMeditations
Prayer VigilsCeremonies
Holidays
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Chicago, Moment of SilenceSeptember 14 2001
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Three Minutes of Silence September 14 2001
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Focused Siddhi Meditations Post September 11, 2001
Context, Five Days
Peak Day, Threshold Exceeded
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A Substantial Agreement on Getting Our Ecological Act Together
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Voices For Peace -- World-Wide Conscience -- Global Consciousness
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And Yet -- A Preemptive Attack The March to War is No Random Walk
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The Lighter Side
Celebrations: What better example than
New Years?
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An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations
Across all (37) time zones
Three of five are classic examples
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New Years, another look: Reduction of Variance
Among the Eggs
Three of five are classic examples
Note: These figures differ from those in the compositefigure, next, which had an error in timezone calculation.
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Global Attention: Sharing New Year’s EveAll over the world, people celebrate the change to a New Year. Since 1998, we have recorded data from a network of physical random event generators (called “eggs”). Here we look at what happens at midnight around the world.
The scientific prediction is that there will be a pattern of increased correlation among the eggs. We test for trends away from the expected “random walk”. We have learned to expect reductions in the variation across the eggs.
The figures on this page almost speak for themselves. They are pictures of our engagement with each other.
Variance Drop, Midnight, 1999-2000
Then, for the infamous Y2K transition, we looked at a measure of the variability among the eggs and predicted it would decrease as we all focused on midnight.
We predicted the same pattern for the following year.
And again for last year. The pattern is replicated for the third time.
More at http://noosphere.princeton.edu
Broughton
Radin
In the first year, 1998-1999, we looked for a change in the average deviation, and compared Maxi- and Mini-celebration time zones.
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What do we have in hand?Where do we want to go with it?
Four and a half years of data
More than 130 formal studiesAbout 65% positive outcomeAbout 15% individually significant
Many questions to ask
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Questions outnumber answers
Deep engagement is essential Great numbers most likely contribute
butDoes distance from the focus matter?How about relevance to local people?Is human consciousness necessary?
Are “experimenter effects” the source? What kinds of events are “strongest”?Is the effect repeatable and reliable?
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Does the distance of the eggsFrom the event make a difference?
Effect vs Dist, Stouffer Z, Full Day, Sept 11
-0.4
-0.20
0.2
0.40.6
0.8
11.2
1.4
USEastern
US Middle
USWestern
England,Scandin
WesternEurope
Israel,India,Brazil
Africa,Austral,
New ZealIncreasing Distance from NYC
Effe
ct S
ize (r
)
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Categories: What seems to touch the EGG Network?Four and a Half Years, 132 Formal Predictions
GCP Effect Size by Event Category
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
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Celeb
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Spiri
tual
Even
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Terro
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War
Act
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Cras
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t
Misc
Nat
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Spor
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nt
Misc
Hum
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Medi
tatio
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Natu
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Polit
ical E
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Com
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e Effe
ct
Category
Effe
ct S
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The Bottom Line:132 global events over 4.5 years
Odds: More than 10,000 to 1
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Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration?
Sharpen and focus our questionsAim for theoretical understanding
Capture insight about creative mindConsider evidence that we are oneContribute to better future for culture
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We think the world apart. What would it be like to think the world together?
-- Parker Palmer, educator
http://noosphere.princeton.edu