THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES (THAILAND)
Airports of Thailand 1QFY16 earnings seen further growth THAILAND | SET | TRANS | COMPANY VISIT BLOOMBERG AOT TB l REUTERS AOT.BK 2M4QFY15 tourist numbers see continued growth but growth pace slows down from 9MFY15 The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) reported a 3.1% rise in tourist arrivals in October‐November to 4.78mn, lower compared to a 27.2% growth in 9MFY15. The significant growth in the first nine months of the year was due to political‐effect low base while a number of tourists rebounded in October‐November 2014 (Figure below). Chinese tourists increased at the fastest pace of 76.2% in the first 11 months but Russian tourists dropped by 46.8%, down from 3rd to 10th rank. For 2015, a number of tourists is forecast at 29.5mn‐30mn, which is near TAT’s projection of 30mn, up 19%‐21%. We expect tourists to climb 6.6%‐8.5% to 32mn in 2016. Number of tourist arrivals on monthly basis (unit: million people) 1QFY16 passenger traffic and flight numbers likely continues to grow supported by expansion of Don Muang and Phuket Airports Passenger traffic and flight numbers increased by 12.3% and 12.9% in October‐November. Assuming passenger volume and flight numbers at AOT’s airports grew at the same pace of 11.2% and 10.6% as seen during December 1‐26, passenger and flight numbers will increased by 11.9% and 12.1% for the October‐December period, implying strong earnings growth this quarter. The numbers of passenger and flights are expected to grow by as much as 22% and 16%, benefitting from low base reported in 2014, but those would slow down in 2016. However, the increased capacity at Don Muang Airport following an opening of terminal 2 on December 24, and trial services of Phuket new passenger terminal on February 14 and officially opening in May will have increased capacity by 17.5mn to 42.5mn. The expansion of those two airports will increase retail space by 19,600 sq.m. from earlier 4,800 sq.m., which should move a needle on rental income. A construction of phase II at Suvarnabhumi Airport, terminal 2, and runway 3 at Suvarnabhumi Airport are expected to see further development in the near future. ‘SELL’ rating downgraded with FY16 target price of Bt339/share We project FY16 net profit at Bt18,025mn, assuming revenue to reach Bt49,901mn and passenger volume and flight number to grow by 16.2% and 12%. We have a ‘SELL’ call on AOT as share price is overvalued to our target price of Bt339/share.
Ref. No.: CO2016_0001
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 2014 2015
Closing Price(Bt) 346.00Target Price(Bt) 339.00 (‐0.53%)
COMPANY DATA
O/S Shares (mn) : 1,429 Market Cap. (Btmn) :Market Cap. (USDmn) :52‐WK Hi/Lo (Bt) : 353/2523M Average Daily T/O (mn) : 2.72Par Value (Bt) : 10.00
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%)
1. MOF 70.02. Thai NVDR Co., Ltd. 5.03. State Street Bank Europe Ltd. 1.9
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
1MTH 3MTH 1YRABS 13% 25% 25%REL TO SET INDEX 19% 31% 46%
PRICE VS SET INDEX
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
KEY FINANCIALS
FYE Sep FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16ESales(Btmn) 37,585 43,969 49,901 55,339Net Profit(Btmn) 12,220 18,729 18,025 20,605EPS (Bt) 8.55 13.11 12.62 14.42P/E (X) 40.5 26.4 27.4 24.0BVPS (Bt) 68.07 76.17 82.29 91.36P/B (X) 5.1 4.5 4.2 3.8DPS (Bt) 3.40 6.54 5.17 5.91Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.7ROE (%) 12.93 18.18 15.93 16.61Source: Company, PSR Est.**Multiples and yields are based on latest closing price
VALUATION METHOD
DCF (WACC: 9.50%, Terminal g: 4%)
Siam TiyanontSecurities Investment Analyst #17970Tel: 66 2 635 1700 # 483
494,285 13,729
17 December 2015
Sell (Downgraded from Accumulate)
04 January 2016
0100200300400500
Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐15
AOT TB EQUITY SETI (rebased)
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 2 | P a g e
Corporate Governance ‐2015
ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTCEASTW EGCO GRAMMY HANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCEKKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINT MONO NKI PHOL PPSPS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMART SAMTELSAT SC SCB SCC SE‐ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCOTKT TMB TOP VGI WACOAL
AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIPASIMAR ASK ASP BANPU BAY BBL BDMS BECL BKI BLABMCL BOL BROOK BWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNTCOL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTA DEMCO ECF EE ERWGBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICC ICHIINET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBKMC MEGA MFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGCOISHI OTO PAP PDI PE PG PJW PM PPP PRPRANDA PREB PT PTG Q‐CON QH RS S & J SABINA SAMCOSCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMTSNP SPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWCSYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSP TCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANITHIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TK TKS TMI TMILLTMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUETSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWFPTWS UAC UT UV VNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO
2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAHAMARIN AP APCO AQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTYBEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHI BKD BTNC CBG CGDCHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSC CSPCSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIREFOCUS FORTH FPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLANDGLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECH IEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCPITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGI KKC KTISKWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJORMAKRO MATCH MATI MBKET M‐CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERNMOONG MPG MSC MTI MTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYTOCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDG PF PICO PLPLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCIRCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCNSCP SEAOIL SIRI SKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCGSPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPI SUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEXTAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TIC TIWTLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMIUP UPF UPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WINXO
Score Range
< 50%
50‐59%
60‐69%
70‐79%
80‐89%
90‐100%
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company l isted on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative disclosure to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The results, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that data. Phil l ip Securities (Thailand) of securities company does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
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Results Presentation
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 3 | P a g e
Industry Group Name Sector Name Sector IndexAgro & Food Industry[AGRO] Agribusiness AGRI
Food & Beverage FOODConsumer Products[CONSUMP] Fashion FASHION
Home & Office Products HOMEPersonal Products & Pharmaceuticals PERSON
Financials [FINCIAL] Banking BANKFinance & Securities FINInsurance INSUR
Industrials [INDUS] Automotive AUTOIndustrial Materials & Machinery IMMPackaging PKGPaper & Printing Materials PAPERPetrochemicals & Chemicals PETROSteel STEEL
Property & Construction[PROPCON] Construction Materials CONMATConstruction Services CONS Property Development PROPProperty Fund & REITs PF&REIT
Resources [RESOURC] Energy & Util ities ENERGMining MINE
Services [SERVICE] Commerce COMMMedia & Publishing MEDIAHealth Care Services HELTHTourism & Leisure TOURISMProfessional Services PROFTransportation & Logistics TRANS
Technology [TECH] Electronic Components ETRONInformation & Communication Technology ICT
PSR Rating SystemCapital Gain Recommendation> 15% BUY> 5% ‐ 15% ACCUMULATE / TRADING BUY> 0% ‐ 5% NEUTRAL0 <= SELL
RemarksWe do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors l ike (but not l imited to) a stock's risk reward profi le, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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