economy series
The Atlas on Regional Integration
is an ECOWAS — SWAC/OECD
initiative, financed by the
development co-operation agen-
cies of France, Switzerland
and Luxembourg. Divided into
four series (population, land,
economy, environment), the Atlas
chapters are being produced
during 2006-2007 and will be
available on-line on the site
www.atlas-westafrica.org
AfricA And chinA
CSAOSWAC
1. OrganisedinApril1955inJava(Indonesia),theBandoengConferencelaunchedthe«non-aligned»movement.Sub-SaharanAfrica,stillunderthecolonialcontrol,wasnotstronglypresent(besidesCôtedel’Or–ex-Ghana–LiberiaandEthiopia).
2. AicardideSaintPaul,Marc(2004)La Chine et l’Afrique entre engagement et intérêt.
tlas on Regional Integration A in West Africa
ECOWAS-SWAC/OECD©2006-December2006
Introduction
C h i n a ’ sGDP has increased ten-fold over the last three decades. After
surpassing Canada, Italy, France and Great Britain, it should soon catch up
to Germany. Its influence on the reconfiguration of international dynamics is
remarkableanditintendstoplayakeyrole.Eventhoughitisnotthekeyissue,
Africaisapartofthisstrategy.
As the third-ranking trading partner, strategic investor, development
partnerandfuturefinancialsource,Chinaisshakingupthebalanceof
powerestablishedonthecontinentsinceindependence.Theimpact issogreat
thattraditionalpartners–EuropeandtheUnitedStatesinparticular–areforcedtoreview
their relations with Africa. This chapter of the Atlas on Regional Integration in West
Africaexaminestheissuesinvolvedinthesenewdynamics.Contrarytootherchapters,
itfocusesontheentirecontinent,eventhoughWestAfricaisstudiedwheneverpossible.
TheChinesestrategyisfirstandforemostAfrican.Itisprobablethatwithinafewyears,
WestAfricanparticularismsandthemuchgreaterpresenceofChinainthisregion,will
justifyamorespecificallyWestAfricanfocus.
I. The Poor Brothers
Geopolitical Issues
In the early1950s, thePeople’sRepublicofChina supported thedevelopingdecoloni-
sation process and even aspired to form a “united front” with the African, Asian and
South American peoples against imperialism. The Bandoeng conference1 provided the
opportunitytoforgelinkswiththeAfricancontinentoratleastwithindependentStates2.
Thefirstofficialbilateralcontactsweremadeshortlyafterwards,firstlywithEgyptin1956,
thenwithfourothernewlyindependentcountries:Algeria,Morocco,SudanandGuinea.
AlthoughChinaandtheSovietUnionhadcooperatedto“leadAfricatorevolution,”their
goalsnowdiverged.TheUSSRlaunchedinto“peacefulcoexistence”,puttingpeaceand
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tlas on Regional Integration A in West Africa
3. Attheopeningofthe8thChineseCommunistParty(CCP)conventionin1956,Maodeclared:“We must give active support to the national independence and liberation movements in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as well as to the peace movement and righteous struggle in all countries throughout the world” (W.A.C.Adie(1964):Chinese Policy towards Africa).
4. ThisrivalrydatesbacktotheChineseCivilWar(1946)whennationalistswereforcedoffthemainlandtotheislandofFormosa.SincethenthereunificationofTaiwanwithmainlandChinahasbeenakeyissueforBeijing.
5. Zhang,Hongming(2000)La politique africaine de la Chine.
ALGERIA
PORTUGUESEGUINEA
NIGER
GHANA NIGERIA
CAMEROON
ETHIOPIA
KENYA
CONGOLEOPOLDVILLE
UGANDA
CONGOBRAZZAVILLE
ANGOLA
LESOTHO
TANZANIA
RHODESIA
SOUTHAFRICA
NAMIBIA MOZAMBIQUE
Sawaba Party
Jeunesse
ELF
FRONASA
RWANDA
FRELIMO
COREMO
CNL
FNLA
UNITA
ZAPUZANU
SWAPO
PAC
ANC
BCP
MPLA
FLCS
Biafra
PAIGC
FLN
© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
Arms
Money
Food
Uniforms
Guerrilla trainings
Major area of insurrection
Chinese assisted guerrilla trainings camps
School books and scholarships
Medical supplies
0 300 mi
Source: Snow Philip (1988)
disarmamentatthetopofitsstrategicforeignaffairsagenda.China’s
policy was to provide military and financial support to nationalist
movements3(seeMap1).Attheendofthe1960s,ofthe41independent
Africancountries,19maintainedofficialrelationswithBeijingasopposed
to just 5 ten years prior. However, China’s ambitions in Africa were
limitedbyitssystematicoppositiontotheUSSRandwesterninterests;
it distanced itself from countries close to the Soviets or Americans:
Tunisia,Kenya,theCentralAfricanRepublic,Dahomey(Benin).
AfricaisalsowheretherivalrybetweenthePeople’sRepublicofChina
and Taiwan4was played out. In 1971, China obtained one of the five
permanentseatsontheUNSecurityCounciltothedetrimentofTaiwan
partlyduetothesupportofAfricancountries.Ofthe76votesobtained
atthe1971UNGeneralAssembly,26werefromAfricancountries.Mao
Zedongsaid:“We entered the UN owing to the support of the poor brothers
of Asia and Africa
who supported us5”.
This victory gave new
impetus to its African
policy and during the
1970snewStateswere
recipients of Chinese
aid: Benin, Mauritius,
Madagascar, Nigeria,
Rwanda,Togo,Tunisia,
Zaire, Senegal, Upper
Volta and Cameroon.
By the early 1980s,
44African States had
established diplomatic
relations with Beijing.
Chineseactivisminthe
region slowed down
during the 1980s due
to the improvement
in East-West relations.
Subsequently, several
countries (Liberia,
Lesotho, GuineaBissau,
CentralAfricanRepublic,
Niger,BurkinaFaso,the
Gambia, Senegal, Sao
Tome and Principe,
Chad) re-established
close ties with Taipei
in the early 1990s.
However,someofthem
alsore-establishedties
withBeijingsoonafter:
Map 1. Chinese Support for African Insurrections 1949 to 1987
economy series
�
Lesotho in 1994, Niger in 1996, Central AfricanRepublic andGuinea
Bissau in1998. In thesameyear,Taipeialso lost itsmainsupporter,
South Africa, which had sought to convince the People’s Republic of
Chinaofdualrecognition6.FollowingtherecentturnaroundofSenegal
(2005) and Chad (2006), only five States still recognise the island of
Formosa (Taiwan): Burkina Faso, the Gambia, Malawi, Swaziland and
Sao Tome and Principe. Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation is currently
undeniable.Incontrast,thedevelopmentofpoliticalrelationsbetween
thePeople’sRepublicofChinaandtheAfricancontinentisincreasing
significantly(seeMap2).
Aid
Betweenthe1960sandtheearly1980s,thePeople’sRepublicofChina
was already providing development aid (approximately $100 million
per annum). During that time, 150,000 Chinese technical assistants
weresent toAfrica to implementprojects in theareasofagriculture,
transportinfrastructuredevelopment(roadsandrailways7),construction
ofofficialbuildings(footballstadiums),industrialdevelopment(almost
halfofMali’sindustrialisationprocessduringthe1960swassupported
byChina).Thisaidwasmodesthowevercomparedtothesumsprovided
by other bilateral partners: between 1971 and 1981, Great Britain,
the United States and France spent $250 million, $800 million and
$1,300millionrespectivelyeachyear8.
ThefirstSino-Africanforum(consultativeprocesslaunchedinBeijing
in2000)launchedanewera.Inthespanofsixyears,severalhundred
A T L A N T I C
O C E A N
I N D I A N
O C E A N
Official Chinese Visits to Africa (2006)
Visited by PresidentHu Jintao
Visited by Prime MinisterWen Jiabao
Visited by the Minister of ForeignAffairs Li Zhaoxing
© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
ETHIOPIA
SUDAN
UNITED ARABREPUBLIC
(EGYPT)
MALI
GHANA SOMALIA
ALGERIA
TUNISIA
MOROCCO
GUINEA
A T L A N T I C
O C E A N
I N D I A N
O C E A N
Visits by Prime Minister Chou En Lai to Africa (1963-64)© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
KENYA
EGYPT
MALI
NIGERIA
LIBYA
SOUTHAFRICA
TANZANIA
ANGOLA
MOROCCO
UGANDA
GHANA
LIBERIA
RDCONGO
SENEGAL
CAPE VERDECAPE VERDE
6. Lafargue,François(2005)La Chine et l’Afrique: un mariage de raison.
Map 2. Main Chinese Diplomatic Visits to Africa in 1963/64 and in 2006
7. TheseprojectsincludedtheconstructionoftheTam-Zamrailway,themostemblematicinvolvementofChinainAfricaduringthatperiod.Inthemiddleoftheculturalrevolution,in1967,theChineseMinisterinchargeofaidandcooperationsignedaformalcommitmenttobuildandfinancethelinelinkingZambiatotheIndianOceancoastinTanzania.In1970,ZambiaandTanzaniareceivedaninterest-freeloanof$400millionandChineseengineersstartedtolaythefirstmilestonesoftherailway.Forfiveyears,almost25,000technicianswereinvolvedinbuildingalmost300bridges,10kmoftunnels,96railwaystations,etc.
8. Snow,Philip(1988)The star raft: China’s encounter with Africa.
�
tlas on Regional Integration A in West Africa
9. Asacomparison,theinitiativefavouringtheHeavilyIndebtedPoorCountries(HIPC)Initiativehasapproveduptonowthecancellationofdebtof29countriesofwhich25areAfricanwithatotalamountof35billionUSdollars.Moreover,inJune2005theG8proposedthatthreemultilateralinstitutions–theIMF,theInternationalDevelopmentAssociation(IDA)oftheWorldBank,andtheAfricanDevelopmentFund(AfDF)–cancel100percentoftheirdebtclaimsoncountriesthathavereached,orwilleventuallyreach,thecompletionpointunderthejointIMF-WorldBankenhancedHIPCInitiativesoastofreeupadditionalresourcestohelpthesecountriesreachtheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs).
cooperationagreementsforeconomicassistance(technicalcooperation,
project aid and budgetary aid) to African countries are approved.
Since 2000, several protocol agreements were signed to cancel all or
partialdebttotalling$10billion9.Thecooperationframeworkhasbeen
strengthened,asdemonstratedbythesuccessofthethirdSino-African
summit in November 2006, with 48 African countries present. China
is now ahead of other emerging Asian countries (India, Singapore,
Thailand,etc.)andrivalsOECDMembercountriesbyannouncingin2005
$10billioninconcessionalloanstoAfricaforthe2006-2008period.Are
therecentcommitmentsbytheG-8toAfricarelatedtoChina’sgrowing
interest in Africa? This situation sets the stage for a new balance of
powerwithinwhichAfricawillbebetterabletonegotiatewithexternal
developmentpartners.
II. Partners
Trade
In 1978, the economic and social reforms led by Deng Xiaoping put
Chinaontracktowardsglobalisation.Today,thecountry’sgrowth(on
average10%peryearforover20years)isdrivenbyexportsinlow-cost
goods.Thecompetitivenessofitsexportproductsanditsrawmaterial
requirementsarechangingtheparametersoftheglobaleconomy.Even
ifitdoesnotrepresentakeyissuefortheChineseeconomy,Africais
directlyaffectedbytheseupheavals.
Trade with Africa has increased considerably: it increased 50-fold
between1980and2005reaching$40billion.However,thistradebarely
represents 2.5% of Chinese foreign trade. From an accounting point
of view, Africa remains a marginal trading partner for Beijing. From
theAfricanperspective, thedynamic isquitedifferent:practicallynil
25yearsago,by2004,ChinahadbecomeAfrica’s third-rankingtrade
partner,aftertheUnitedStatesand
France. In the span of one decade
(1993 to 2004), it has succes-
sively surpassed Portugal, Japan,
India, Italy, the UK and Germany
(seeFigure1).Generally,since1993,
Africa imports more from China
–mainlyeverydayconsumergoods-
thanitexportstoit–mainlyoiland
rawmaterials(seeFigures2and3).
However,thesituationvariesineach
region;Chinaisclearlyanimporter
with respect to Central Africa and
Southern Africa which have major
mining resources, especially oil
(seeTable1).
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
United StatesFranceItalyUnited KingdomChinaIndia
Million of US dollars
Source: Direction of Trade Statistics, IMF (2006)
Figure 1. Africa’s Main Trading Partners
Table 1. Chinese Trade with African Sub-regions* (average 1993-2004)
Millions US dollars Imports Exports
NorthAfrica 816 1,564
WestAfrica 257 1,568
CentralAfrica 841 71
EastAfrica 51 401
SouthernAfrica 2,239 1,311
Africa 4,205 4,916
* Sub-regions as defined by the African Union.Source: Compiled Data from the Direction of Trade Statistics, IMF (2006)
economy series
�
WithregardtoWestAfrica,practically
allexports toChinaconsistofoiland
cotton.Yet these twocommoditiesdo
nothavethesamestatus:cotton10isa
strategicsupplysourcefortheChinese
textile industry whereas West African
oil is a marginal supply source for
China(seeTable2).
Within a few years, China has thus
becometheleadingtradingpartnerfor
theexportsofmajorcottonproducers
(Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad).
Conversely, West African imports
fromChinacontinue to increase (seeTable3).With its sizeable
population (300 million in 2006, i.e. a third of the continent’s
population), West Africa is an attractive consumer market for
Chinese products. Nigeria alone represents 45% of the regional
populationand imports42%ofChinese exports toWestAfrica.
Besides Nigeria, the main destinations for China’s exports,
Figure 2. Main Chinese Imports from Africa in 2005
Pearls andPrecious Stones
3%
Others8%
Wood2%
Cotton3%
Metalliferous Ore13%
Oil71%
Source: Comtrade database, UNCTAD (2006)
Figure 3. Main Chinese Exports to Africa in 2005
10. SeetheChapterintheAtlasdedicatedtoCotton.
Table 2. Oil and Cotton in Chinese Imports from Africa (2004)
ChineseImports
Africa West Africa
BillionsUSdollars
%BillionsUS
dollars%
Oil 10.1 64.2% 0.65 44.8%
Cotton 0.7 4.2% 0.60 37.8%
Others 4.9 31.6% 0.25 17.4%
Total 15.7 100% 1.50 100%
Source: Comtrade Database, UNCTAD (2006)
Source: Comtrade Database, UNCTAD
TransportVehicules
8%
Clothing and Footwear
14%Textile16%
TelecommunicationEquipment
8%
ElectricalAppliance
7%
Others42%
IndustrialEquipment
5%
Table 1. Chinese Trade with African Sub-regions* (average 1993-2004)
Millions US dollars Imports Exports
NorthAfrica 816 1,564
WestAfrica 257 1,568
CentralAfrica 841 71
EastAfrica 51 401
SouthernAfrica 2,239 1,311
Africa 4,205 4,916
* Sub-regions as defined by the African Union.Source: Compiled Data from the Direction of Trade Statistics, IMF (2006)
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tlas on Regional Integration A in West Africa
indecreasingorder,areBenin(15%),Ghana(9%),
Togo(8%),Côted’Ivoire(7%)andtheGambia(3%).
TheshareofgoodsimportedfromChinabyCôte
d’Ivoire and Ghana seem proportional to their
population.However, the respective intensityof
tradewithBenin,TogoandtheGambiaisgreater
in terms of the market size. This situation is
due to their transiting of trade to neighbouring
countries.
Investments
TheparticipationoftheAfricancontinentinthe
InternationalDivisionofLabour(IDL)11hasbeen
limited.Financialinvestments,mainlyintheform
of foreigndirect investments (FDIs), remain low
(3%ofglobalFDIin2004)andvaryconsiderably
fromyeartoyear(seeMap3).AlthoughtheUnited
Kingdom, the United States and France remain
theleadinginvestorsinSub-SaharanAfrica,new
countries in East Asia, South America and even
South Africa are interested in the emerging
opportunities on the continent. Among these
countries,Chinacontributed0.7%ofFDIinAfrica
between1979and2002.
Between1979and2002,almost10%ofChineseforeigndirectinvestment
wasinAfrica(seeTable4).Overthatperiod,sixAfricancountrieswere
amongChina’s top30partners, including twoWestAfricancountries
(Nigeria and Mali)12. Until 1995, the focus was strongly on southern
Africa.Sincethen,however,thescopeofChineseinvestmentsinAfrica
hasbroadened.
Recently, the trendhas intensifiedandChinacouldbecomeamajor
playerinthefuture.In2004,ChineseFDIsweremorethan$900million
of the total $15 billion in FDI received by Africa. These investments
should continueover the coming years for two concomitant reasons.
Firstly, thegradual liftingof restrictionson theChinesegovernment,
in order to prevent the increase in currency reserves from putting
Table 3. China’s Position in African Foreign Trade Between 2000 and 2005
Exports Imports
2000 2005 2000 2005
Benin 33 1 4 4
BurkinaFaso 50 1 18 12
Cameroon 5 12 8 4
CapeVerde - - 14 15
Chad 47 2 22 8
Côted’Ivoire 58 21 - 4
TheGambia - 21 1 1
Ghana 19 8 9 2
Guinea 35 17 6 1
GuineaBissau 14 - 5 8
Liberia 7 11 8 5
Mali 37 1 6 4
Mauritania 19 24 6 4
Niger - - 5 9
Nigeria 19 16 8 1
Senegal 11 15 10 7
SierraLeone - 10 7 5
Togo 43 10 2
Source: Comtrade Database, UNCTAD (2006)
11. TheInternationalDivisionofLabouristhebreakdownofproductionactivitiesbetweentheworld’snations.
12. However,theMinistryofCommerceofChinadonotincludeallofchina’sdirectinvestment.Togetageneralpicture,mainlandChinaoutwardFDIshouldreacharound$40billion(dataprovidedbyUNCTAD)whereasthoserecognisedbytheChineseMinistry(officiallyapprovedoutflows)onlyrepresentaquarterofthisamount.ByincludingHongKong,thefinancialhubformainlandChina,FDIstockwillreach450billionUSdollars.Moreover,ashareofforeigndirectinvestmentwouldbefinancedbyformerAsianresidentsinAfricancountriesandarethusincludedinprivatetransfersintermsofbalanceofpayments.AccordingtothestudiesconductedonTanzaniaorUganda,20%or30%ofdirectinvestmentsmadebyChinainthesecountriesareaccountedasprivatetransfers.SeeBhindaNils,etal(1999)Private capital flows to Africa: perception and reality. PAC I F I C
O C E A N
AT L A N T I CO C E A N
I N D I A NO C E A N
Source: World Investment Report, UNCTAD (2006)
China
France
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
EUROPE
NORTH AFRICA
SUBSAHARANAFRICA
SOUTH ASIA
MIDDLE EAST
EAST ASIA
OCEANIA
CENTRAL EUROPEAND ASIA
1970 1990 2004
FDI inflows
220
95
45
FDI outflows(The top five investors in 2004)
Billions of USdollars
5
55
125
© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
Table 4. China’s Approved FDI Outflows, by region
Rank RegionNumber of
projectsAccumulated value
(1979-2002) $ million
1 Asia 3,672 5,482
2 NorthAmerica 847 1,270
3 Africa 585 818
4 LatinAmerica 362 658
5 Europe 1,194 561
6 Oceania 300 550
TOTAL 6,960 9,340
Source: Ministry of Commerce of China, in « China: an emerging FDI outward investor » (2003)
economy series
�
pressure on interest rates,
should favour growth of
investments outside the
country. Secondly, China
hasmadefirmcommitments
to facilitate trade and
investment in the African
continent.
According to the results of
asurveycarriedoutin2000
on 100 Chinese multina-
tionals,Africa isaprioritymarketforathirdofthem13.Between650
and750ChinesecompaniesarenowestablishedinSub-SaharanAfrica.
Themain investmentsector isoil.But,manyothersectors,viewedas
highpotential orprofitable, attract strong capital flows fromBeijing,
Shanghaiandelsewhere:mining,fishingandexoticwood,manufacturing
industries as well as infrastructures (roads, railway, ports, airports,
PAC I F I CO C E A N
AT L A N T I CO C E A N
I N D I A NO C E A N
Source: World Investment Report, UNCTAD (2006)
China
France
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
EUROPE
NORTH AFRICA
SUBSAHARANAFRICA
SOUTH ASIA
MIDDLE EAST
EAST ASIA
OCEANIA
CENTRAL EUROPEAND ASIA
1970 1990 2004
FDI inflows
220
95
45
FDI outflows(The top five investors in 2004)
Billions of USdollars
5
55
125
© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
Map 3. Foreign Direct Investment throughout the World
Table 5. Chinese Foreign Direct Investments in Selected African Countries (2002)
Inward FDI stocks ($ million)
Chinese FDI stocks ($ million)
Proportion(%)
Cameroon 1,505 16 1.1
Ghana 1,610 19 1.2
Mali 523 58 11
Nigeria 22,570 44 0.2
SouthAfrica 29,611 125 0.4
Tanzania 2,335 41 1.8
Zambie 2,241 134 6.0
Source: Jenkins, R. (2006) The economic impacts of China and India on Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and prospects
13.UNCTAD(2003)China: an emerging FDI outward,p9.
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tlas on Regional Integration A in West Africa
telecommunications, etc.). Of the thousands of projects executed in
Africa, 500are exclusively conducted by the China Road and Bridge
Corporationconstructioncompany.TheZTE Corporation(Chinesegroup
specialising in telecommunications, established in 1985) is launching
intoseveralAfricancountries.
Carte 7. Migration de populations avec le retrait du Lac Tchad
ALGERIA
LIBYA EGYPT
LIBERIA
CÔTE
D'IVOIREGHANA
NIGERIA
CAMEROON
SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
KENYADRC
UGANDA
MADAGASCAR
SEYCHELLES
MAURITIUS
SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE
GABON
ANGOLA
LESOTHO
TANZANIA
ZIMBABWE
ZAMBIA
SOUTHAFRICA
SWAZILAND
MOZAMBIQUEChinese Population in Africa
Population 2001, Ohio University database
Estimates 2002 to 2006Sautmann Barry V.
Less than 300
1 000
2 000 to 3 000
5 000 to 10 000
30 000
© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
Map 4. Chinese Population in Selected African Countries
economy series
�
Migration
Historically,ChinesemigrationtoAfricagoesbacktothenineteenth
century during the “Coolie trade” when Chinese migrants worked in
theSouthAfricanminesorsugarplantationsonislandsintheIndian
Ocean. They sometimes replaced slaves that had been freed with
the abolition of the slave trade14. It is in fact in these areas that the
strongestdiasporasarefoundinAfrica(seeMap4).Overthepastfour
decades, China has sent on temporary missions between 15,000 and
20,000technicalassistantsinthemedicalsectorand10,000agricultural
specialists,amongothers.
In recent years, two new phenomena have occurred. Firstly, labour
migrationfollowsthepenetrationrateofcompanies;companies arrive
with their own site and workforce15.Partofthisworkforce,undoubtedly
a tinyminority, never returnshomeonce thework is completed and
becomespartoftheillegalimmigrantenvironment.Secondly,individual
migrationsofsmallentrepreneurs,oftentraders,restaurantowners,etc.
aredeveloping.ThismigrationoriginatesinChinaaswellasEuropean
countries,Franceinparticular.Thistrendisquiterecent.Establishedin
Africantowns,Chineseimmigrantssetupsmallbusinessesandimport
everyday consumer goods such as electronic appliances, textiles and
clothingandcompetewithlocaltraders.Socialtensionscouldflareup
betweenAfricanandAsianretailers16.HowmanyChinesepeoplenow
live in Africa? There are no reliable figures: the Chinese authorities
officially identify 78,000 workers on the continent. Other sources
estimate that the Chinese diaspora in Africa – including descendents
– could reach approximately 500,00017, including 150,000 holding a
Chinesepassport.MostcomefromthePeople’sRepublicofChinabut
therearealsoTaiwaneseandimmigrantsfromHongKongwhoarrived
beforethereintegrationoftheformerBritishenclave18.
III. Current issues
Oil
Economic recovery and the demographic weight of China demand
higher energy consumption than in the past. The structure of this
demandhistoricallydependsoncoalconsumption,forwhichChinais
theworld’sleadingproducer.Bythenextgeneration,coalconsumption
willstilldominatetheChineseenergyprofile.However, thatdoesnot
prevent the country from developing other options whether through
hydroelectricity (the construction of the Three Gorges dam19 is an
illustrationofthis),nuclearenergy,gasand...oil.Oil,whichisusedin
transportationandindustry,isthecountry’ssecondsourceofenergy.
Itsdemandhasincreasedsincethe1970s,tosuchapointthatChinahas
becomeanetimportersince1993.
In2005,Chinaisthesecondlargestconsumerofoilintheworldwith
morethan6millionbarrels/daybehindtheUS(20millionbarrels/day)
Carte 7. Migration de populations avec le retrait du Lac Tchad
14. MaMung,Emmanuel(2006)Deux migrations : l’une ouvrière, l’autre commerçante.
15. Ibid.16. Igue,John(tobepublished)
Impact de la Chine et de l’Inde sur les économies africaines : Cas du Bénin, du Burkina Faso et du Ghana.
17. Asacomparison,thereare35millionChineseimmigrantsthroughouttheworld.
18. Airault,Pascal(2006)Ils ont choisi l’Afrique.
19. TheThreeGorgesdamislocatedinthemiddleofmainlandChinaontheYangzi-JiangRiver.
10
tlas on Regional Integration A in West Africa
andaheadof Japan (5millionbarrels/day).By2030, experts forecast
thatChinesedemandcouldexceed13millionbarrels/day(ofwhich80%
wouldbeimported).ThesesignificantvolumesforceChinatobemore
activediplomaticallyandeconomicallyinthepetrolsectorwithrespect
tootherconsumercountries.TheMiddleEastisthemajorsuppliertothe
Chineseeconomy.Consideringthegeopolitical tensions intheregion,
especiallysince11September2001andtheAmericanoffensiveinIraq,
Beijinghastriedtodiversify(seeMap5)andsecureitsoilimports.This
hashadasignificantimpactontheregional(CentralAsia,SouthernAsia
andRussia) and international (SouthAmericaandAfrica) geopolitical
situation.
Oil companies increase production contracts as well as prospecting
efforts,inacontextwherecurrentoilpricesenablethedevelopmentof
deepoffshoresourcesortheoperationofwellsthathadbeenconsidered
unprofitableuntilnow.AfricaisconsideredtobeanoilElDorado.With
theMiddleEastandSouthAmerica,itisoneofthe
regionswiththe largestnumberofnewsources.
Furthermore,oilfoundinAfricaisofhighquality.
EvenifstateslikeCameroonhavenorealgrowth
prospects, Sub-Saharan production, particularly
byheavyweightssuchasAngolaandNigeria,will
increase over the next few years. In addition, a
certainnumberofcountrieshaverecentlyentered
intooilproduction:Chad in2003,Mauritania in
2006.Otherswillmostprobablydosointhefuture,
suchasMaliin2008orSaoTomeby2010.
Between 1998 and 2005, Chinese imports of
African oil increased nine-fold, rising from
100,000 tomore than900,000barrels/day.This
growth is particularly strong when compared to
itstotalimportsofcrudeoilwhichonlyincreased
by3.5overthesameperiod.90%oftheseflowscomefromSub-Saharan
African countries, mainly Angola, China’s leading African supplier
(45%ofitsimports),followedbySudan(18%),theRepublicoftheCongo
(14%)andEquatorialGuinea(9%).
TheintensificationoftraderelationsbetweenChinaandSub-Saharan
oil-producingcountriesresultsfromgrowinginvestmentsbyChineseoil
companies.Theyarenowactive,tovaryingdegrees,inSudan,Angola,
Nigeria,Algeria,Gabon,Mauritania,NigerandMali(seeMap6)andcould
soonbeactiveinChad,LibyaortheCentralAfricanRepublic.TheCNPC
(ChinaNationalPetroleumCompany)isthecompanythathasinvested
most on the continent. It is present in 8 countries with a strategic
positioning in Sudan where it has a majority stake in the country’s
mainoilfields(MugladandMelut).TheSINOPECgroup(ChinaPetroleum
Corporation) has signed exploration and production agreements in
6 African countries (Algeria, Angola, Congo, Gabon, Mali and Sudan).
Finally,theCNOOC(ChinaNationalOffshoreOilCorporation),reflecting
1990 2000 2010 2020 20300
3
6
9
12
15
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
OilDependency
Production Demand Imports in % of demand
Source: International Energy Agency / OECD (2004)
Figure 4. China’s Oil Dependency 1990 to 2030
economy series
1111
PAC I F I CO C E A N
AT L A N T I CO C E A N I N D I A N
O C E A N
Russian Federation
Algeria
Brazil
Venezuela
Ecuador
Argentina
Norway
LybiaEgypt
Nigeria
Gabon
EquatorialGuinea
ChadSudan
SaudiArabia
Oman
IranIraq
Indonesia
MalaisiaBrunei
VietnamThaïlande
Australia
Yemen
Congo
Angola
Source of Petroleum Importsby China (%)
MiddleEast47%
East Asia7%
West Africa28%
Latin America3%
Others5%
Russia10%
2005
Source: Comtrade database, UNCTAD (2006)
© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006Source: Comtrade Database, UNCTAD (2006)
PAC I F I CO C E A N
AT L A N T I CO C E A N I N D I A N
O C E A N
Source: Comtrade Database, UNCTAD (2006)
Source of Petroleum Importsby China (%)
MiddleEast45%
East Asia41%
West Africa9%
Others5%
Russian Federation
Algeria
UnitedKingdom
Lybia
Nigeria
Gabon
SaudiArabia
Oman
Iran
Indonesia
Malaisia
Vietnam
Australia
Yemen
Congo
Angola
1995
© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
Map 5. Chinese Oil Imports in 1995 and in 2005
1�
tlas on Regional Integration A in West Africa
PAC I F I CO C E A N
AT L A N T I CO C E A N
I N D I A NO C E A N
United States
Countries in theGulf of Guinea
ChadSudan
NorthAfrica
China Japan
EuropeanUnion
25
Source: Comtrade database, UNCTAD (2006)
Petroleum flows from the African Continent*
Exports of black gold from thelarge petroleum region in Africa (2005)*
Principal regions consumingAfrican petroleum
* Data calculated in proportion to flows (see table)© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
2%
2005 North Africa Gulf of Guinea Chad / Sudan
13%
8% 34% 1%
0%
9%1%
28% 0%
1% 2%Japan
European Union
United States
China
China’s ambition for offshore operations, is above all
visibleintheGulfofGuinea.Thiscompanytargetsdeep-
seaextractionwhichcouldbeprofitableover20yearsor
more. It has entered the recently discovered Akpo Field
in Nigeria. This company has invested $2.3 billion to
acquire45%ofthecapital.InFebruary2006,italsosigned
an exploration contract with Equatorial Guinea for the
offshoreSblock(seeMap6).
WestAfricaisthereforenotthecurrentmajorissuefor
China: West African oil exports only amount to 5% of
AfricanexportstoChina.However,inthelongterm,West
AfricaisattractivebecauseofreservesinNigeria,recent
operationsopenedinMauritaniaandChadandpotential
operations in the Sahelian strip confined between Chad
andMauritania.
Cotton
Since the late1980s,Chinahasbeenheavilydependent
onAmericancotton: it importsbetween40%and60%of
itsannualrequirementsfromtheUnitedStatesandmore
than75%fromtheUnitedStates,CentralAsia,WestAfrica
and Australia combined. The rest of its imports come
PAC I F I CO C E A N
OCEANATLANTIQUE O C E A N
I N D I E N
Source: Petroleum companies, LEPII (2006)
Sinopec
CNPC / PetroChina
CNOOC
Australia
Indonesia
Venezuela
Ecuador
Peru
Chile
Brazil
SyriaIraq
Russia Federation
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Iran
Azerbaïdjan
SaudiArabia
Oman
Algeria
Tunisia
MauritaniaNigerMali
Nigeria
EquatorialGuinea
SudanChad
Gabon Congo
Angola
© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
Map 6. Main Foreign Investments by Chinese Oil Companies 1995 to 2006
Map 7. Destination of African Oil Exports in 2005
economy series
1�
PAC I F I CO C E A N
AT L A N T I CO C E A N
I N D I A NO C E A N
United States
Countries in theGulf of Guinea
ChadSudan
NorthAfrica
China Japan
EuropeanUnion
25
Source: Comtrade database, UNCTAD (2006)
Petroleum flows from the African Continent*
Exports of black gold from thelarge petroleum region in Africa (2005)*
Principal regions consumingAfrican petroleum
* Data calculated in proportion to flows (see table)© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
2%
2005 North Africa Gulf of Guinea Chad / Sudan
13%
8% 34% 1%
0%
9%1%
28% 0%
1% 2%Japan
European Union
United States
China
from various sources: Southern Asia
(Pakistaninparticular),SouthAmerica
(Brazil), Africa, the Middle East. West
Africa had a minor role, as in 1994,
only 2.2% of Chinese cotton imports
came from the West African region.
However, since2002,between15and
20% of Chinese cotton imports have
come from West African countries
(seeMap8).
Cotton exports from West Africa
naturally target the most dynamic
industrialzones.AsforWestAfrica,it
is estimated that in 2004 almost half
of the region’s cotton was exported
toChina(seeFigure5).In2004,morethan50%ofcottonfromBenin,
Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo was exported to China.
Moreover,almostone thirdofcotton fromCameroon,Mali andChad
wasboughtbyChinaandonly10%ofSenegaleseandNigeriancotton.
More broadly, 80% of this cotton was exported to the rest of Asia,
namely Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and India. Chinese
and Asian demand has therefore contributed to restructuring cotton
tradeflows20.Overandabovetherestructuringofinternationalflows,
ChinesedemandhasincreasedWestAfricancottonexports.
Attheregionallevel,itisestimatedthatbetween2002and
2004, Chinese imports contributed to 41% of the growth
rate in farming exports for all cotton producing countries
put together.Morebroadly,Chinese importscontributed to
2.5%of thegrowth rateof total exportsand to1.1%of the
economicgrowthrateofcotton-producingcountries.Among
thecountries,themostvisiblemacroeconomicimpactsarein
Benin,BurkinaFaso,MaliandTogo.Chinesecottonimports
contributedto7%oftheeconomicgrowthrateinthesefour
countries.
Accordingtocurrentoutlooks,Chinesedemandforcotton
andChinesecotton importsshouldremainhighuntil2010.
Givenitskeypositionontheinternationalmarket,Chinaplays
afundamentalroleindeterminingthelevelof international
prices.Growth inChinese imports seems tohave increased
pricesintheshorttermoverthepasttwotothreeyears.Is
thissituationsustainable?WillWestAfricabenefitfromthis
new configuration? Very recently, Michel Fok highlighted
that “The cotton world is now very attentive to the impact
China has on the development of rules governing transaction
contracts. This country is currently setting out its own rules
without completely following the Liverpool rules. Considering
20. Formoreinformationonthissubject,seethecottonchapterintheAtlasonRegionalIntegrationinWestAfrica.
PAC I F I CO C E A N
OCEANATLANTIQUE O C E A N
I N D I E N
Source: Petroleum companies, LEPII (2006)
Sinopec
CNPC / PetroChina
CNOOC
Australia
Indonesia
Venezuela
Ecuador
Peru
Chile
Brazil
SyriaIraq
Russia Federation
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Iran
Azerbaïdjan
SaudiArabia
Oman
Algeria
Tunisia
MauritaniaNigerMali
Nigeria
EquatorialGuinea
SudanChad
Gabon Congo
Angola
© Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
Map 7. Destination of African Oil Exports in 2005
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Others
West Africa
United States
Million of US dollars
Source: Comtrade Database, UNCTAD
Figure 5. Origin of Chinese Cotton Imports 1989 to 2004
1�
tlas on Regional Integration A in West Africa
that it is a major destination for West African cotton,
countries in that region should be extremely attentive
to this development”21.
Theotherissueislinkedtotheimpactofcompetition
fromChinesetextileexportsontheWestAfricantextile
sector:Chinese textile exports have harmed industries
in Lesotho, Swaziland, Ghana, Uganda, Kenya, South
Africa, and Morocco. Since the surge in Chinese textile
imports began in 2003, South Africa lost 55,000 jobs in
the industry by the end of 2005. More than ten clothing
factories closed in Swaziland, forcing 12,000 employees
out of work. There were another 13,000 job losses in
Lesotho. Low-cost Chinese textile and other consumer
imports also devastated consumer product industries
in several Nigerian cities22.
But it seems important to put this impact into
perspective.InWestAfrica,textileimportscomefrom
otherregionsoftheworld,notcountingthemarketin
second-handclothescomingfromtheEuropeanUnion.
And,asparadoxicalasitmayseem,acertainnumber
ofChinese economicoperatorshave invested in the
Africantextileindustry.Forexample,inWestAfrica,
inthefourtextileindustriesoperatinginGhana,two
belong toChinesegroups. Likewise, inBenin,of the
three industriescurrentlyoperating, twoare funded
byChinese companies.Could thisbe indicativeof a
trendthatwillbeconfirmedinthefuture?
Inanycase,negotiationsbetweenChinaandAfricancountrieswillbe
importantforthefutureoftheWestAfricancotton-producingandtextile
sectors.TheforumonChina/Africacooperationcouldbethevenuefor
suchnegotiations.Recently,ChinapledgedtosupporttheWestAfrican
cotton-textile industry through technology transfers to “help these
countries increase
the volume of their
cottonproductionand
develop their cotton
industry.” Within
this context, China
“will open clothing
production plants
and textile processing
centresinseveralWest
African countries.”23
Could this episode
be the first sign of
a change in Chinese
strategyinAfrica?
Source : Comtrade database, UNCTAD (2006) © Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
China's Cotton Imports in 1994 China's Cotton Imports in 20043.1 billion of US dollars
United States56.7%
Central Asia11.4%
Australia5.6%
West Africa18.1%
Africa (others)2.6%
Others5.6%
0.9 billion of US dollars
United States63.2%
Central Asia10.1%
Australia8.5%
West Africa2.2%
Africa (others)7.2%
Others8.8%
CENTRALASIA
UNITEDSTATES
WESTAFRICA
WESTAFRICAAFRICA
(others)
CHINA CHINA
AUSTRALIA
CENTRALASIA
UNITEDSTATES
AFRICA(others)
AUSTRALIA
1994 2004
Map 8. Chinese Cotton Imports in 1994 and in 2004
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Benin BurkinaFaso
Cameroon Côted'Ivoire
Ghana Mali Nigeria Senegal Chad Togo
China Rest of the World
Millions of US dollars
Source: Comtrade Database, UNCTAD (2006)
Figure 6. Destination of Cotton Exports from West African Countries in 2004
21. Fok,Michel(2005)Coton africain et marché mondial : une distorsion peut en cacher une autre plus importante.
22. Shinn,DavidH.(2006)Africa and China’s Global Activism, p.3.
23. AllAfrica.com:Afriquedel’Ouest:Coton,laChineprometsonappuiàl’Afriquedel’ouest,8novembre2006.
economy series
1�
IV. Future issues
Oilandcottonwillremainkeyissuesatthecore
ofSino-Africanrelationsinthecomingdecades.
However,theywillnotbetheonlyissuesatplay.
It isalreadypossible todiscern tensionon the
worldsteelandaluminium(bauxite)market.
More generally, the African continent will
undoubtedly remain an attractive market
showingconstantgrowth(ifonlyindemographic
terms) for Chinese manufactured products.
The risk of a growing “invasion” of competing
importsorimportspreventingthedevelopment
oflocalindustryshouldthereforebetakeninto
account. To balance this, two factors could
encourage Chinese investors to finance West
African industry: firstly, the increase in sea
transportationcostsshouldprogressivelyfavour
the creation of primary processing units in
particular(iron,bauxite).Secondly,theprospect
oftheEconomicPartnershipAgreements(EPAs)
betweenAfricanregionsandtheEuropeanUnion
should encourage Chinese industrialists (but
also Indian, Brazilian, etc.) to produce within
these regions in order to gain access to the
European market. The ECOWAS zone is, from
thisperspective,particularlywell-positionedas
itoffersthreeadvantages:geographicproximity
toEurope,availabilityofrawmaterials(cotton,iron,bauxite,etc.)anda
moreavailable,abundantandlow-costworkforcethaninNorthAfrica,
forexample.Ifthishypothesisisproven,itisprobablethatcountries
with non-convertible currency (Ghana, Nigeria, etc.) will be more
attractivethancountriesinthefranc/eurozonewhereproductioncosts
arehigher.Politicalandgeo-strategicconsiderationswillundoubtedly
continuetohaveanimpactandwillprobablypartlycompensateforthis
bias.Whateverhappens,manyAfricanleadersseetheChineseirruption
ontheircontinentasaneconomicopportunity–“whatifdevelopment
came from the East?”-, doubled by a political opportunity – “What if
Africabecameastrategicissue,itcouldleavetheeraofsubmissionto
goforwardintotheeraofnegotiation.”
Source : Comtrade database, UNCTAD (2006) © Sahel and West Africa Club / OECD 2006
China's Cotton Imports in 1994 China's Cotton Imports in 20043.1 billion of US dollars
United States56.7%
Central Asia11.4%
Australia5.6%
West Africa18.1%
Africa (others)2.6%
Others5.6%
0.9 billion of US dollars
United States63.2%
Central Asia10.1%
Australia8.5%
West Africa2.2%
Africa (others)7.2%
Others8.8%
CENTRALASIA
UNITEDSTATES
WESTAFRICA
WESTAFRICAAFRICA
(others)
CHINA CHINA
AUSTRALIA
CENTRALASIA
UNITEDSTATES
AFRICA(others)
AUSTRALIA
1994 2004
Map 8. Chinese Cotton Imports in 1994 and in 2004
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