10/7/2019
1
Larry Kessler, Ph.D.
Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee
The U.S. economy has now enjoyed 10 years of economic growth since the Great Recession◦ Real GDP grew by 2.0% in 2019Q2 3.1% growth in 2019Q1
◦ Nonfarm employment increased by 2.7 million jobs in 2018.◦ Unemployment rate of 3.5% in September
2019Q1 3.1%
‐10.0
‐8.0
‐6.0
‐4.0
‐2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2000:12001:12002:12003:12004:12005:12006:12007:12008:12009:12010:12011:12012:12013:12014:12015:12016:12017:12018:12019:1
Percentage
Chan
ge, Previous Quarter SA
AR
2019Q2 2.0%
9 year avg2.3%
2018Q2 3.5%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2018Q4 1.1%
1
2
3
10/7/2019
2
‐3.0
‐2.0
‐1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Percentage chan
ge
20202.0%
20192.3%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Markit
20212.0%
William F. Fox • http://cber.haslam.utk.edu
September11, 2018
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
‐2.0
‐1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Percentage chan
ge
20183.0%
2009-1.6%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
4
5
6
10/7/2019
3
‐25.0
‐20.0
‐15.0
‐10.0
‐5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Percentage chan
ge
2009-21.2%
20185.1%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
‐$80,000
‐$70,000
‐$60,000
‐$50,000
‐$40,000
‐$30,000
‐$20,000
‐$10,000
$0
Millions of dollars
Jun-19-$55.2b
7.878
4.866
2.5041.945
1.366
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Canada Mexico China Japan Netherlands
Exports (billions of U.S. d
ollars)
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration.
7
8
9
10/7/2019
4
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029
William F. Fox • http://cber.haslam.utk.edu
Source: IHS
2004, $413
2009, $1,416
2018, $779
2019, $1,038
2024, $1,120
2029, $1,457
2.112.28
2.472.64
2.752.86
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
3‐Months 6‐Months 1‐Year 2‐Years 5‐Years 10‐Years
Interest rate, in
percent
August 30, 2018
U.S. Treasury Department
2.112.28
2.472.64
2.752.86
1.99 1.891.76
1.51.39
1.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
3‐Months 6‐Months 1‐Year 2‐Years 5‐Years 10‐Years
Interest rate, in
percent
August 30, 2018 August 30, 2019
U.S. Treasury Department
10
11
12
10/7/2019
5
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Millions of units
200910.4
201816.8
Source: IHS Global Markit
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Trillions of dollars
Student
Other
Mortgage
2003Q4$5.7T
2008Q3$9.3T
2019Q2$9.4T
Source: New York Fed
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Trillions of dollars
Student
Other
Mortgage
2003Q42.2T
2019Q22.9T
Source: New York Fed
13
14
15
10/7/2019
6
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Trillions of dollars
Student
Other
Mortgage
2003Q4$253B
2019Q2$1.5T
Source: New York Fed
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Housing Starts (millions)
Units of Existing Homes (m
illions)
Exist. House Sales Housing Starts
20185.3
20181.2
Source: IHS Global Markit
TNAug - 19
1.5%
U.S.Aug-19
1.4%
‐8
‐6
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
Percentage change, same month last yea
r
TN U.S.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
17
18
10/7/2019
7
108
277
196227
312
56
153
216
62
178 166 168136
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Employm
ent (thousands)
154k new jobs per month
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
Employm
ent (thousands) Dec-07
2,805.6
Aug-193,115.6
Dec-092,590.9
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
90.1%
95.1%
97.1%
104.0%
104.5%
111.0%
113.6%
115.2%
123.3%
127.8%
128.0%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0%
Information
Mining, Logging, Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Government
Total Nonfarm
Other Services
Financial Activities
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
Leisure & Hospitality
William F. Fox • http://cber.haslam.utk.edu Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
19
20
21
10/7/2019
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unem
ploym
ent Rate (%
)
TN U.S.
TNJun-0911.1%
U.S.Oct-0910.0%
U.S.Aug-19
3.7%
TNAug-19
3.5%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.7% to 3.7%3.8% to 4.7%4.8% to 5.7%5.8% to 6.5%
Tennessee: 3.7%United States: 3.6%
Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
Jul‐00 Jul‐01 Jul‐02 Jul‐03 Jul‐04 Jul‐05 Jul‐06 Jul‐07 Jul‐08 Jul‐09 Jul‐10 Jul‐11 Jul‐12 Jul‐13 Jul‐14 Jul‐15 Jul‐16 Jul‐17 Jul‐18 Jul‐19
Participation Rate (%
)
U.S. TN
TN62.2%
U.S63.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
22
23
24
10/7/2019
9
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Per Capita Personal In
come ($) TN
$48,658
S.E Avg.$49,051
U.S. Avg.$56,541
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Less than $30,000$30,000 to $45,517$45,518 to $51,640Greater than $51,640
Tennessee: $45,517United States: $51,640
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Heart attack Coronary heartdisease
Stroke Diabetes Skin cancer Other types ofcancer
Kidney disease Depression
Percentage ever told had hea
lth issue by a
doctor (%
)
TN U.S.
Source: Center for Disease Control & Prevention, BRFSS, 2017
25
26
27
10/7/2019
10
Bachelor’s degree or higherHigh school graduates or higher
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
83.2
84.9
86.5
85.4
86.3
87.3
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
85.0
86.0
87.0
88.0
2011 2014 2017
Percentage
of population age
d 25 yea
rs and older
TN
U.S.
22.7 23.825.4
27.9 28.830.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2011 2014 2017
Percentage
of population age
d 25 yea
rs and older
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.2
2.8
3.7
4.1
5.6
0 2 4 6 8 10
Doctoral degree
Professional degree
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Some college, no degree
High school diploma
Less than a high schooldiploma
Unemployment Rate (%)
$1,743
$1,836
$1,401
$1,173
$836
$774
$712
$520
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000
Doctoral degree
Professional degree
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Some college, nodegree
High school diploma
Less than a high schooldiploma
Median Weekly Earnings ($)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Opioid Prescribing Rate by State: 2017
Less than 52.052.0 to 65.966.0 to 80.0Greater than 80.0
Number of Prescriptions per 100 People
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
28
29
30
10/7/2019
11
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Centers for Disease Control & Prevention
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Labor force participation rate (%
)
Per capita opioid prescriptions
Opioids LF Participation Rate
Source: Tennessee Department of Health, Controlled Substance Monitoring Database.
Thank [email protected]
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32
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