Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels
Brian Helmuth, David Wethey, Venkat Lakshmi, Jerry Hilbish, Allison Smith, Lauren Szathmary,
Christel Purvis
University of South Carolina, Columbia
Intertidal zone is an interface between marine and terrestrial ecosystems
Recent worldwide observations of intertidal mortality linked to climate
New Zealand
OregonWashington
Dead mussels
Necrotic tissue
Bleached algae
Photo: Laura Petes
Potential causes of mortality, range shifts, and loss of biodiversity
• Direct physiological effects (acute and chronic)– Changes in aerial body temperature– Changes in water temperature
• Indirect effects– Competition– Predation
• Factors not related to climate (e.g., anthropogenic influences)
Ecological niche modeling
• Fundamental vs. realized niche space– Not all species range edges are set by climate– Should not expect to see impacts of climate change
everywhere– Climate change may impact organisms in the middle
of their ranges
• Organism performance changes spatially and temporally include physiological data in niche modeling
Climate and Remote Sensing Data
Theoretical Models of Organism Body Temperature
Make Hypotheses
Experimentally Test Hypotheses in the Field and Laboratory
Determine Realized Niche Space
Physiological and Ecological Data
Goals
• How do we make predictions about geographic range boundaries?– Poleward migrations– Mosaic patterns
• Where and when do we look for the current and future effects of climate change on ecological patterns?– Biodiversity– Abundance– Mortality
• How do we mitigate these effects?
Two organisms exposed to identical microclimates can experience different body temperatures
Seastar at ~12°C
Mussel at ~21°C
See details on Szathmary et al. poster…
Shady Cove
Cattle Point
Tatoosh
Boiler Bay
Strawberry Hill
Monterey
Piedras BlancasCambria
Lompoc LandingJalamaAlegria
Boat House
Coal Oil Pt
GMT 2003 Jul 25 02:13:59
OMC - Martin Weinelt
-125
-125
-120
-120
-115
-115
-110
-110
-105
-105
-100
-100
30 30
35 35
40 40
45 45
50 50
0 200 400
km
0 10 20 30 40 50
Shady Cove
Cattle Point
Tatoosh Island
Boiler Bay Exposed
Boiler Bay Protected
Strawberry Hill Exp.
Strawberry Hill Prot.
Monterey Exposed
Monterey Protected
Piedras Blancas
Cambria
Lompoc
Jalama
Alegria
Boat House-Exposed
Boat House-Protected
Coal Oil Point
Yearly MaximumPeak Yearly Avg Daily Max.
Temperature (°C)
2002 data
(Poleward)
(Equatorial)
Thermal mosaic over a large geographic range
(Helmuth et al. 2006 Ecol Monogr)0 10 20 30 40 50
Shady Cove
Cattle Point
Tatoosh Island
Boiler Bay Exposed
Boiler Bay Protected
Strawberry Hill Exp.
Strawberry Hill Prot.
Monterey Exposed
Monterey Protected
Piedras Blancas
Cambria
Lompoc
Jalama
Alegria
Boat House-Exposed
Boat House-Protected
Coal Oil Point
Yearly MaximumPeak Yearly Avg Daily Max.
Temperature (°C)
2002 data
(Poleward)
(Equatorial)
Topex-Poseidon R/S Data for Tidal Height
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Complex patterns are likely to occur worldwide due to tidal regimes
How do we measure animal temperature over large scales in physiologically meaningful ways?
Avg MaxMussel Temp
Avg MODISTemp
Avg MusselTemp
CriticalPhysiological
Temp
See Purvis poster for more details…
Quantifying effects of climate over a cascade of scales
Weather station data
In situ animal temperature data
Remote sensing data
http://uae2.gsfc.nasa.gov/terra_sat.gif
High spatial resolutionMore field intensiveDirectly relevant to animals
Wide spatial coverageBroad temporal coverageNoninvasive
Qstored
Tbody
Tground
Tair
QQsolasola
rr
QQrad, skyrad, sky
QQrad, groundrad, ground
Qconduction
QQconvectionconvection
QQevaporationevaporation
WindWind
Thermal engineering model of animal temp.(“Inside out/Outside in”)
m, cp
Twater
Variable NameData Source (Satellite
Platform)[Agency]
Time PeriodSpatial
ResolutionTemporal
Resolution
Air Temperature
Reanalysis [NCEP/NARR]1948-present1979-present
200 km (global)32 km (NARR)
6 hour avg3 hour avg
LSTMODIS (Aqua, Terra)
[NASA]
Aqua: Aug 2002-present
Terra: Feb 2000-present
1 km, 5 kmDaily, 8-day
average
SSTMODIS (Aqua, Terra)
[NASA]
Aqua: Aug 2002-present
Terra: Feb 2000-present
4.89 km, 9 km Daily
Solar Radiation Pinker (GOES) 1996-present 0.5 deg hourly
Solar Radiation Reanalysis [NCEP/NARR]1948-present1979-present
200 km (global)32 km (NARR)
6 hour avg3 hour avg
Wave Height, Wind Speed
TOPEX/POSEIDON (Jason-1)[NASA]
1992-present6 km, 0.5 deg, 1
deg5-day, 10-day
Wind Speed Reanalysis [NCEP/NARR]1948-present1979-present
200 km (global)32 km (NARR)
6 hour avg3 hour avg
Relative Humidity
Reanalysis [NCEP/NARR]1948-present1979-present
200 km (global)32 km (NARR)
6 hour avg3 hour avg
NASA/NOAA data used as inputs to thermal engineering models
NCEP= National Centers for Environmental Prediction; NARR = North American Regional Reanalysis;
incorporates NASA R/S Data and NOAA ground-based data as part of reanalysis
Model Performance vs. Field Data
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Difference in Monthly Average Maximum
too cold too hot
(Gilman et al., PNAS 2006)
Model Performance vs. Field Data
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Difference in Monthly Average Maximum
too cold too hot
(Gilman et al., PNAS 2006)
Air Temperature vs. Field Data
too cold too hot
Difference in Monthly Average Maximum
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
(Gilman et al., PNAS 2006)
Hypothesis testing
• Produce short-range (8-day) forecasts and test using physiological measurements of stress (hsps, etc.)
• Generate hindcasts of body temperature back to 1950’s using historical data: compare against biogeographic data
• Make long-range predictions using GCM models: predict shifts in biodiversity/ ranges
Ecological forecasting
http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/forecasting
8-day forecasted mussel temperatures in upper intertidal from July 23, 2006
Patterns of mortality match forecasting predictions???
Photo: Laura Petes
Physiological Information: Semibalanus balanoides have reproductive failure if SST > 10°C in winter
Prediction: S. balanoides southern biogeographic limit moved north to the winter 10°C isotherm
Remote Sensing Information: 10°C winter isotherm moved north between 1984 and 1998
Biogeography of Barnacles in Europe
Sea Surface Temperature (AVHRR 36km)
February 1984 February 1998
Arrows indicate the southern limit of S. balanoides based on field surveys from Southern Portugal to Denmark in 1984 and 2005
•MODIS, ASTER Land Surface Temperature
•MODIS Sea Surface Temperature
•Climate Measurements
•Predator/Prey Studies•Population Genetics
•Physiological Tolerances
•Thermal Engineering Models•Wave Run-up Models
•Tide Cycles
In Situ & LaboratoryResearch
Remote Sensing
Ecological Modeling
•Skin vs. Body Temp
•GPS Positioning
•Skin vs. Modeled Temp•R/Sing Climatic
Inputs
•In situ vs. Modeled
Temp
• Woody Turner and the NASA Ecological Forecasting Team
• NASA grant NNG04GE43G• Nova Mieszkowska, Sierra Jones, Karly Jones,
Sarah Gilman, Srinivas Chintala• Bernardo Broitman, Carol Blanchette and
Packard-PISCO (U.S. West Coast)• Steve Hawkins, Alan Southward and MARCLIM
(Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, U.K.)• Cliff Cunningham and CORONA
Acknowledgments