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Eco Energy Update: Programs, Technology, Economics
Eco Farm Day 25 February 2012
Chris Weissflog BSc, MSc, MBA
CanSIA, RASDT, RHDT
EcoGen Energy Inc, Kemptville
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Agenda
• Context
• Renewables
• Incentive Programs and Economics
• The Passive House Method
• Ultra-Efficient Eco-Home Project
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Energy Prices: 1990 to 2006
Average Consumer Energy Pricing - 1990 to 2006
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
Unleaded
Gasoline
Home
Heating
Oil
Natural
Gas
5 Year Annual Rate:
•Unleaded: 7.00%
•Heating Oil: 7.65%
•Natural Gas: 7.20%
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Energy Prices: 1990 to 2012
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Unleaded
Propane
Poly. (Unleaded)
Poly. (Propane)
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Energy Prices: Outlook
• Ontario MEI, Electricity Prices:
– Next 5 yr: 7.9% increase per year (= 46%)
– Next 20 yr: 3.5% average increase (=100%)
• Petroleum (analyst prediction):
– $150/barrel in 2012 (+50%, temporary?)
• Natural Gas: prices have fallen!
– 2006: 57.7 ₵/m3
– 2012: 36.3 ₵/m3
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Conventional Energies:
Costs & Carbon
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Natural Gas Oil Propane Electricity
Cost ($/MWh)
Conventional Energies - Cost per MWh
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Tonnes GHG
Natural Gas Oil Propane Electricity
Conventional Energies - Tonnes GHG per MWh
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Approach to Energy
• Conservation 1st
• Efficiency 2nd
• Generation (renewable) Last
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Renewable Energy
Generation
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• 1,000 watts per m2
Solar Resources
1m x 1m
Average Daily Energy in Collector Plane
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
kW
h / m
2 / d
ay
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• Heat fresh or re-
circulated air
• Process heat (crop
drying)
• Rapidly Developing:
– Building cladding
– Passive cooling
– PV / Thermal (“PV/T”)
Solar Air Heating
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• Homemade solar wall
• 12’ x 30’
• 33% to 50% heat
Example: Allan’s Tool Shed
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Solar Water Heating
• Pre-heat system
• Proven technology
• Different from Solar
Electric - turns sunlight
into heated water
• The most cost-effective
solar energy system
• Solar Fraction
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Solar Water Heating
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Energy Production
Solar Thermal Systems Integration
Energy Production
Available for Other Use (Pool? Other?)
Space and Water Heating Energy Need
Water Heating Energy Need
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Electricity from the Sun
Photovoltaic – PV:
• Very long life
• Virtually no servicing
• On or Off-Grid applications
• Peak production matches peak grid demand
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Electricity from the Sun
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• Off-Grid: good
complement to PV
– Typically 1kW to 10 kW
• Primary factor: wind
resource
• Larger = better economies
Small Wind Turbines
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Wind Resource at 30m AGL
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Wind: Economics of Size
Size kW 1 10 80 250 850 1650 2750
Height m 18 30 30 50 50 80 100
Cost $ $8K $70K $250K $750K $3M $5M $6.5M
Energy Output MWh
Yr
1 8 79 378 1330 3771 4690
Lifetime Yrs 10 15 18 20 25 25 25
Cost/kWh $/kWh 72¢ 59¢ 18¢ 7¢ 10¢ 5¢ 6¢
Simple Payback Yrs 64 68 28 12 18 12 12
Cost of Energy by Turbine Size
1
10
80250 850
1650 2750$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000Turbine Size (kW)
Co
st
pe
r k
Wh
Q&A
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Biomass
• Forest & Agriculture sources
• Agriculture:
– Energy crops (switchgrass, reed
canarygrass)
– Crop residues (straw & stalks)
– Potentially better revenue from marginal
lands vs beef
• OPG sourcing?
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Biogas
• Anerobic biodigester
• 100kW – 500kW, or larger
• 100 - 400 milkers, or larger
• CHP: Electricity & Heat output!
• Useful, safe, clean, odourless nutrient
• CO2 20:1 less GHG than methane
• Factors:
– Sources of additional feedstock (FOG)
– Electric service capacity
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Biogas
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Market Developments,
Incentives & Economics
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Market Developments
• Solar Thermal: – No significant change in technology or pricing
– Broader technological penetration into NA (USA)
– Canada: marginal incentives, negligible
demand, fewer businesses selling & supporting
• PV: – Rapid increase in global production & innovation
– Dramatic international price drop on PV cells
– Dramatic increase in supply options in Ontario
– Impact: ROI changes, system optimization
nuances, closer to “grid-parity” (2017?)
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Market Developments
• Wind: – Foreign companies manufacturing in Canada
– “Go big or go home”: primarily big wind projects
in areas of good wind conditions
• Biomass: – OPG biomass demand seems to have stalled
• Biogas: – Range of biogas developers / manufacturers in
Ontario
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Efficiency Incentives
• ecoENERGY Retrofit Incentive for
Buildings Cancelled
• OPA / saveONenergy / HPNCP (incl
retrofits) – Up to $400 per saved kW / $60 per appliance
• OPA / saveONenergy / Retrofit
Program – Up to $800 per saved kW / 10₵ per kWh saved in
first year
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Efficiency Incentives
• COFSP – Growing Forward
Environmental & Climate Change
Initiative – Category 26: Energy Conservation Measures
– For conservation or renewable energy
generation
– Up to $5K, up to 30%
– 2012 funds allocated – no more money!
• Enbridge – One-Time Retrofit – Up to $100K @ 10₵ /m3 saved in first year
– Consulting support available
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Renewable Energy Incentives
• ecoENERGY Renewable Heat
Cancelled
• Ontario Solar Thermal Heating
Incentive Cancelled
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Renewable Energy Incentives
• OPA / saveONenergy / Retrofit
Program (business only) – Solar water heating eligible if water heated by
electricity
• $320/m2 collector area x Performance Factor
• Typically 25% to 35% of project cost
• Result: 6-10 year payback
– Solar air heating
• Up to $800 per saved kW / 10₵ per kWh saved in first
year
• Assessed on case-by-case basis
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Renewable Energy Incentives
• Enbridge (when asked about
incentives for solar water heating):
“While we do not have any programs that
apply in this case at the moment, I think that
we may be looking at these programs very
soon.
For a quick answer, technically we do not have
a program that would help in this case, but the
long answer is "check back in a month or two
and my answer could very well change".”
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Renewable Energy Incentives
• OPA Feed-In Tariff
– Program under review, frozen since
September 2011
– Demand at standstill – lay-offs, folded
businesses, internationals pulled back
– PV:
• CanSIA recommendations available on web
• Announcement expected March 2012
• Tariffs unknown, probably about 25% lower
• May be new categories, new rules of
participation, quotas, RFP for larger projects
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Renewable Energy Incentives
• Imminent MOL interim ruling on PV
labour: electricians only
• Impact:
– reduced availability
– increased cost (add approx. 3%-5%)
• Final ruling to follow IBEW Labour Board
challenge
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Renewable Energy - Economics
• Solar Water Heating:
– 6 to 10 year payback with electric water
heating
• Solar Air Heating:
– 5 to 10 year payback
– Potential incentive if heating with
electricity
• Wind:
– Outside the reach of most
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Biogas - Economics
• OMAFRA / BSFAP
– Feasibility study ≤ $35K
– Construction & Implementation • Each ≤ $400K, ≤ 40%
• 100kW, 100x milkers:
– $750K - $300K = $400K installed
– $133K / yr (@16¢/kWh)
• 500kW, 300x milkers:
– $2M - $400K = $1.6M installed
– $667K / yr (@16¢/kWh)
• Significant Operating Costs
• ~7 year payback / 20 year contract
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Passive House
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What is “Passive House”?
• Design methodology and standard from
Germany (“Passivhaus”)
• Not “passive solar”, but inclusive of it
• As prescribed set of energy performance
criteria (heating, cooling, consumption
maximums)
• Performance modeling software tool
• Certification process
• Adopted & adapted in various countries
• Estimated 100,000 PH buildings in Europe
• Driving new European building codes
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Passive House Characteristics
• Super-insulation:
– Walls ~R70
– Ceiling ~R100
– Floor ~R60
• Attention to thermal bridge details!
• Extreme airtightness: <=0.6 ACH50
• Highest performance windows:
– R values
– Solar Heat Gain Coefficients
• Highest efficiency heat recovery
• Shading, thermal mass
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Passive House Examples
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Passive House Performance
• No “furnace”- just a small heat source
• Comfort:
– max ΔT = 4°C (windows); even temps
– no drafts / forced air currents
– 50% RH year-round
• Heating: 1.5 kWh/ft2 / year
– Example: 2,000 ft2 house*
• <3,000 kWh = <$420 electricity / <$120 Natural Gas
• Low maintenance costs
• Minimized carbon emissions
• Positive NPV (vs “code” home)
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Ultra-Efficient Eco-Home
Project
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Ultra-Efficient Eco-Home
• Passive House –Optimized for “Resiliency”
• Integrated solar thermal with seasonal energy
storage:
– Highest COP / lowest energy consumed to heat
– On-site heat generation = thermal independence
– Extra thermal energy for other selective functions:
• extended growing season for home-scale agriculture
• alternative: pool heating
• High thermal mass
• Hydronic radiant heating
• Grid-Interactive (net metered / off-grid back-up)
• MicroFIT (revenue generation) / cost-neutralizer
• Virtual zero risk from energy inflation
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Ultra-Efficient Eco-Home
Energy Production
Available for Storage & Other Use
Space and Water Heating Energy Need
Water Heating Energy Need
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Eco-Home: Benefits
• Comfort
• Cost-neutral (over time)
• Zero emissions
• Low energy consumption
• Energy resilience
• Food resilience
• Reduced complexity: simple systems, simple
maintenance
• Virtual independence