GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake Hazard
Peter Sammonds
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake Hazard
Course detailsGH07 MSc Geophysical HazardsGEOLGG09 MSc Geoscience / Earthquake
EngineeringGEOL4002 MSci Geophysics etc.M (masters) level course
7.5-10 ECTS (PG) Half course unit (UG)
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake HazardCourse organiserPeter Sammonds Professor of Geophysics Department of Earth SciencesOffice: Pearson Building, 2nd
Email: [email protected] website: www.es.ucl.ac.uk/people/sammonds/
Other contributorsAlan Douglas Blacknest Observatory 1 dayTim Wright COMET, Leeds University 1 day Tiziana Rossetto Civil Engineering, UCL 1 lectureClare Matthews Earth Sciences, UCL PG teacherJoanna Faure Walker Earth Sciences, UCL PG teacher
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake HazardWorkloada) 20 Lectures 20 hrsb) 6 Self-guided tutorials 18 hrsc) 3 Analytical/computing practicals 16 hrs d) Study visit to seismological observatory 6 hrse) Earthquake hazard exercise 6 hrse) Private reading 40-50 hrsf) Practical write ups 18-27 hrsg) Revision 30 hrs
Total: 150-170 hrs
AssessmentWritten examination: 80% 2 hrs 30 minsCoursework: 20% 2/3 Practical write-upsBoth examination and coursework must be passed
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Times & venuesMonday 1.00pm to 6.00pmWk1: Starting Monday 1st OctoberLectures & Practicals: 188 Tottenham Court Road, Room SB5
Computer practicals: Computer Terminal Room, 2nd flr South Wing (PIN: 25334) & Lewis Workroom, Basement Lewis
Earthquake Hazard Exercise
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake Hazard
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Blacknest trip
Compulsory exercises at BlacknestWednesday / Thursday 7th/8th November10.00 LectureHalf day visit – depart 11.30 am Paddington
Professor Alan DouglasBlacknest Seismological ObservatoryMoD, AWE Aldermaston
www.blacknest.gov.uk/
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake Hazard
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Course outline
Observational SeismologyEarthquake Waves & SeismogramsIASPEI Seismology HandbookVisit to Blacknest Observatory
Earthquake Source MechanicsSeismic Moment & SeismotectonicsEarthquake magnitude & intensitySeismometer
Theoretical SeismologySignal Processing Tutorial
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake Hazard
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Tectonics
Strain-Stress Tensors
State of Stress in the Crust
Earth Materials
Satellite Remote Sensing
Earthquake cycle deformation
Interpreting interferograms
Earthquake Hazard Exercise
Earthquake engineering
Earthquake Recurrence
Earthquake Statistics
Realistic Disaster Scenarios
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake Hazard1. Propagation of seismic waves
Observational seismology
How to interpret a seismogram:-
analyse both old ink trace and modern digital records
analysing earth structure
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake Hazard2. Earthquake source mechanics
Seismotectonics
Determining the earthquake focal mechanism:-
using Matlab
Seismotectonics:-
earthquake hazard assessment
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake Hazard3. Propagation of seismic waves
Theoretical seismology
Understand elastodynamicequation:-
solutions to it tell us about the earthquake source, seismotectonics, earth structure, ground motion
( )
⎥⎥⎦
⎤
⎢⎢⎣
⎡
∂∂
∂+
∂∂∂
+∂∂
∂=
⎟⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛
⎥⎥⎦
⎤
⎢⎢⎣
⎡
∂
∂+
∂∂
+∂∂
∂∂
=
+∂∂
=∂
∂
ij
j
jj
i
ki
k
i
j
j
i
k
kij
j
ijkkijjj
ij
xxu
xxu
xxu
xu
xu
xu
x
xx
222
2
μλ
μδλ
εμεδλσ
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Earthquake Seismology & Earthquake Hazard4. Earthquake faulting
Analysis of strain & stress
Observed interferogramcalculated from ERS-1 SAR images taken before and after the Izmit Earthquake
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
5. Earthquake source mechanics Earthquake models and scaling
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake Hazard
Friction and fluid flow models of earthquakes:-
Slip weakening model
Rate and state models
Fractal scalingCoulomb stress model
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
5. Earthquake designGround motion & damageSocial & economic impact
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake Hazard
Ground motion from wave equation
Tsunami
Shake maps
Soils and structures
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
6. Forecasting earthquakesEarthquake statistics
Earthquake Seismology and Earthquake Hazard
Poisson statistics
Non-Poissonian statistics
Extremal statistics
Hazard maps: practical hazard assessment
Approaches to forecasting and warning
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Great Kanto Earthquake 1923• Great Kanto earthquake (Mw = 7.9; Ms = 8.2) • Occurred along the Sagami Trough in the Sagami Bay on 1 September 1923 • One of the most disastrous earthquakes in Japanese history
• Earthquake claimed 99,331 dead, 43,746 missing, and left 3.4 million homeless
• Major social consequences - systematic massacre of 6,000 Koreans & political assassinations
Refugees –Imperial Palace
Saiten Tamura
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Great Kanto Earthquake 1923
JMA Intensities
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Great Kanto Earthquake 1923
Ratio of total collapse of wooden houses
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Great Kanto Earthquake 1923
Tsunami damage –Yuigahama Beach
• Tsunami height reached 12 m at Atami in Shizuoka Prefecture and 9.3 m at Aihama on the Boso Peninsula
• The tsunami struck Atami, located close to the focal region, about 5 minutes after the earthquake occurred
• Hence the tsunami was not triggered directly by the earthquake itself, but a subsequent submarine landslide
• There was no large tsunami wave inside Tokyo Bay
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Great Kanto Earthquake 1923
Lloyd’s realistic disaster scenariosUSA Windstorm, Marine Collision in Prince William Sound, North Sea- Loss of Major Complex, Aviation Collision, Satellite Risks, Political Risks, Liability Risks
Compulsory ScenariosSecond Event, Florida Windstorm, California Earthquake, New Madrid Earthquake, European Windstorm, Japanese Earthquake, Terrorism
Objective is for syndicates to estimate losses in a variety of hypothetical disaster scenarios
Wanted me to assess how realistic this scenarios was and the impacts, including a tsunami assessment
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Great Kanto Earthquake 1923
JMA Intensities: Maximum is 7
Lloyds RDS: is it realistic?
GEOLGH7/GG09/4002 EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Reading listRecommended TextsShearer P M (1999) Introduction to Seismology, C.U.P.
Bolt B A (2003) Earthquake 5th edition, W H Freeman & Co., New York
Woo G (1999) The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes, Imperial College PressAn advanced text from an unusual viewpoint, directed towards the insurance industry.
Fowler C M R (2005) The Solid Earth 2nd edition, Cambridge University PressA general introductory geophysics text
Vita-Finzi C (2002) Monitoring the Earth, TerraReadable account of active tectonics