Download - Earned Schedule - PMI
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
1/27
Earned ScheduleEarned Schedule
an extension to EVM theoryan extension to EVM theory
Walt LipkeSoftware Division
Tinker AFB
(405) 736-3341
E.V.A. - 10Symposium
May 17-20, 2005
London, England
Kym HendersonEducation Director
PMI Sydney, Australia Chapter
61 414 428 537
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
2/27
2
PurposePurpose
To discuss and encourage the application of a new
method of schedule analysis derived from Earned
Value Management, termed Earned ScheduleEarned Schedule.
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
3/27
3
OverviewOverview
The Problem with EVM Earned Schedule Concept
Applications
Status & Future
Summary
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
4/27
The ProblemThe Problem
EVA-10 SymposiumMay 18-20, 2005London, England
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
5/27
5
Earned Value BasicsEarned Value Basics
Time
$
BCWS
BCWPSPI =
ACWP
BCWPCPI=
BACBCWS
ACWP
BCWP
SV
CV
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
6/27
6
Traditional schedule EVM metrics are good at beginning of project
Show schedule performance trends
But the metrics dont reflect real schedule performance at end Eventually, all budget will be earned as the work is completed,
no matter how late you finish
SPI improves and ends up at 1.00 at end of project
SV improves and ends up at $0 variance at end of project
Traditional schedule metrics lose their predictive ability over thelast third of project
Impacts schedule predictions, EAC predictions
Project managers dont understand scheduleProject managers dont understand scheduleperformance in terms of budgetperformance in terms of budget Like most of us!
So, whats the problem?So, whats the problem?
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
7/27
7
Earned ValueEarned Value
Cost and Schedule VariancesCost and Schedule Variances
+$
-$
001 02
CV = BCWP - ACWP SV = BCWP - BCWS
Note: Project completion was scheduled for Jan 02, but completed Apr 02.
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
CV
SV
CV = BCWP - ACWP SV = BCWP - BCWS
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
8/27
8
Earned ValueEarned Value
Cost and Schedule Performance IndicesCost and Schedule Performance Indices
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
CPI
SPI
01 02
Note: Project completion was scheduled for Jan 02, but completed Apr 02.
BCWS
BCWPSPI =
ACWP
BCWPCPI =
IN
DEX
VALUE
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
9/27
Earned ScheduleEarned Schedule
ConceptConcept
EVA-10 SymposiumMay 18-20, 2005London, England
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
10/27
10
Earned Schedule ConceptEarned Schedule Concept
BCWS
BCWPSPI($) =
ATESSPI(t) =
$
Time
BCWS
BCWP
Projection of BCWPonto BCWS
7AT
BCWS(May)-BCWS(June)
BCWS(May)-BCWP($)5ES
JuneofPortionMayofAllES
=
+=
+=
J J JF M MA A S O N
BCWSBCWPSV($) =
ATESSV(t) =
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
11/27
11
Schedule Variance ComparisonSchedule Variance Comparison
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
-3
-2
-1
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
SV($) SV(t)
Early Finish Project
Late Finish Project
$ Mo
$ Mo
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
12/27
12
Schedule Performance IndexSchedule Performance Index
ComparisonComparison
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
SPI($) SPI(t)
Early Finish Project
Late Finish Project
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
13/27
13
Earned Schedule IndicatorsEarned Schedule Indicators
Key PointsKey Points::
ES Indicators constructed to behave in anES Indicators constructed to behave in ananalogous manner to the EVM Cost Indicators,analogous manner to the EVM Cost Indicators,
CV and CPICV and CPI
SV(t) and SPI(t) areSV(t) and SPI(t) are notnot constrained by BCWSconstrained by BCWS
calculation referencecalculation reference
SV(t) and SPI(t) provideSV(t) and SPI(t) provide durationduration basedbasedmeasures of schedule performancemeasures of schedule performance
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
14/27
14
SV($) versus SV(t)SV($) versus SV(t)
BCWS
Earned Schedule (ES)
BCWP
Actual TimeActual Time
SV(t)
$
SV
Earned schedule metrics relatework performed to actual time, notwork scheduled
Retain utility over time Only return to 0 or 1.00 whereon time completion achieved
Earned schedule metrics relatework performed to actual time, notwork scheduled
Retain utility over time Only return to 0 or 1.00 whereon time completion achieved
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
15/27
ApplicationsApplications
EVA-10 SymposiumMay 18-20, 2005London, England
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
16/27
16
ES Applied to Real Project Data:Late Finish Project: SV($) and SV(t)
Commercial IT Infrastructure Expansion Project Phase 1
Cost and Schedule Variancesat Project Projection: Week Starting 15th July xx
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Elapsed Weeks
Dollars(,000)
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Weeks
CV cum SV cum Target SV & CV SV (t) cum
Stop wk 19
Re-start wk 26Sched wk 20
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
17/27
17
Early Finish Project:Early Finish Project:
SV($) and SV(t)SV($) and SV(t)Commerical IT Infrastructure Expansion Project: Phases 2 & 3 Combined
Cost and Schedule Variancesas at Project Completion: Week Starting 9th October xx
-25.0
-15.0
-5.0
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Elapsed Weeks
Dollars($,0
00)
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Weeks
Target SV & CV CV cum SV ($) cum SV (t) cum
Stop wk 16
Re-start wk 19
Sched wk 25
IEAC(t) Predictions usingIEAC(t) Predictions using
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
18/27
18
IEAC(t) Predictions usingIEAC(t) Predictions using
ESES Techniques:Techniques: Weekly Plots of IEAC(t)Weekly Plots of IEAC(t)
Late Finish Project ExampleLate Finish Project ExampleCommercial IT Infrastructure Expansion Project Phase 1
Earned Schedule, Independent Estimate At Completion (time) - IEAC(t)
as at Project Completion: Week Starting 15th July xx
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Actual Time (Weeks)
Duration(Weeks)
Planned Schedule Earned Schedule cum IEAC(t) PD/SPI(t)
Stop wk 19 Re-start wk 26
Plan Dur wk 20
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
19/27
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
20/27
20
ES vs EVM ComparisonES vs EVM Comparison
Earned Schedule Earned Value
SV(t) and SPI(t) valid forentire project, including early
and late finish
SV($) and SPI($) validitylimited to early finish projects
Duration based predictivecapability analogous toEVMs cost based indicators
Limited prediction capabilityNo predictive capability after
planned completion date
exceededFacilitates Cost ScheduleManagement (using EVM
and ES)
EVM Management focused toCost
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
21/27
Status & FutureStatus & Future
EVA-10 SymposiumMay 18-20, 2005London, England
TiTi B d S h d l MB d S h d l M
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
22/27
22
TimeTime--Based Schedule MeasuresBased Schedule Measures
An Emerging EVM PracticeAn Emerging EVM Practice
Inclusion of Emerging PracticeInsert into PMI - EVM PracticeStandard
Dr. John Singley, VP of CPM
Included in Box 3-1 of EVMPractice Standard
Describes basic principles ofEarned Schedule
Provides foundation for further
development of and researchintended to result in EarnedSchedule acceptance as a validextension to EVM
EVM Practice Standard releasedat 2004 IPMC Conference
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
23/27
23
Early AdoptersEarly Adopters
Incorporation of ES into EVM Instruction
Several instruction sources now offer ES as part of
EVM Requests for information and ES calculator
Calculator provided freely to > 50 requestors
Tool vendor interest Growing evidence of use on real projectsreal projects
Evidence of use in a number of countries
USA, Australia, Sweden, Belgium Applications across weapons programs, construction,
software development,
Range of project size from very small and short toextremely large and long duration
F U fF U f
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
24/27
24
Foreseen Uses ofForeseen Uses of
Earned ScheduleEarned Schedule Enables independent evaluation of schedule
estimates: ETC(t), EAC(t)
Client, Contractor, Program and Project Manager .
Facilitates insight into network scheduleperformance
Duration based Schedule indicators Identification of impediments/constraints and potential
future rework
Evaluation of adherence to plan
Improvement to Scheduleand Cost prediction Client, Contractor, Program and Project Manager .
Application of direct statistical analysis ofschedule performance
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
25/27
SummarySummary
EVA-10 SymposiumMay 18-20, 2005London, England
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
26/27
26
SummarySummary
Derived from EVM data only
Provides time-based schedule indicators
Indicators do not fail for late finish projects
Application is scalable up/down, just as is EVM
Schedule prediction is better than any other EVMmethod presently used
SPI(t) behaves similarly to CPI
IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t) behaves similarly to
IEAC = BAC / CPI
Facilitates bridging EVM to the scheduleFacilitates bridging EVM to the schedule
-
8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI
27/27
27
ReferencesReferences
1. Schedule is Different, The Measurable News,March & Summer 2003 [Walt Lipke]
2. Earned Schedule: A Breakthrough Extension to Earned Value Theory?
A Retrospective Analysis of Real Project Data,The Measurable News, Summer 2003 [Kym Henderson]
3. Further Developments in Earned Schedule,The Measurable News, Spring 2004 [Kym Henderson]
4. Connecting Earned Value to the Schedule,The Measurable News, Winter 2004 [Walt Lipke]
5. Forecasting Project Schedule Completion by Using Earned Value MetricsPresentation by Ing. Stephan Vandevoorde, Senior Project Manager,
Fabricom Airport Systems, Belgium6. Earned Schedule in Action,
Publication pending, [Kym Henderson]
http://sydney.pmichapters-australia.org.au/Click Education, then Presentations and Papers for .pdf copies, except (6)
http://sydney.pmichapters-australia.org.au/http://sydney.pmichapters-australia.org.au/