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Page 1: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

DG AGRI DASHBOARD : POULTRY MEAT 28.10.2016

Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/2008 and Regulation (EC) 617/2008), GTA,

Last update:

Period:2015 2016 % Chg

EU-28 951 388 1 039 710 + 9.3 %South Africa 131 525 176 791 + 34.4 %

Philippines 61 708 85 132 + 38.0 %

Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 %

Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 %

Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 %

Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 %

Ghana 46 784 50 105 + 7.1 %

Other 411 769 420 187 + 2.0 %

POULTRY MEAT (Tonnes carcase weight)Jan-Aug

Pri

ces

Wo

rld

Qu

ota

tio

ns

Pro

du

ctio

nTr

ade

EU-28 EXPORTS( Top Destinations in 2015 / 16 )

Wo

rld

Tra

de

- 0.2%

3 9

42

4 1

81

4 0

75

3 3

97

1 4

13

1 4

04

1 1

87

1 1

22

681

640

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

2014 2015

In 1

000

ton

ne

s P

W

World Main EXPORTERS( 89% of Total Exports )

Brazil United States EU Hong Kong & China Thailand

2014 : 12 798

2015 : 12 093 1 5

67

1 3

21

900

948

881

839

791

808

393 478

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2014 2015

In 1

000

ton

ne

s P

W

World Main IMPORTERS( 69% of Total Imports )

Hong Kong + China Japan Mexico EU South Africa

2014 : 6 895

2015 : 6 378

Ove

rall

Po

ult

ry M

eat

Pla

cin

gs B

roile

r

- 1.3% - 5.0%

Period: 2015 2016 % Chg

EU-28 579 294 616 029 + 6.3%

Brazil 329 068 343 388 + 4.4 %

Thailand 188 951 200 982 + 6.4 %

Ukraine 25 156 30 065 + 19.5 %

Chile 12 895 22 199 + 72.2 %

China 11 922 11 193 - 6.1 %

Argentina 5 916 4 335 - 26.7 %

Switzerland 1 706 1 558 - 8.7 %

Other 3 681 2 310 - 37.3 %

POULTRY Meat (Tonnes carcase weight)Jan-Aug

EU-28 IMPORTS ( Main Partners in 2015 / 16 )

11

35

4

11

65

5

12

12

1

12

35

1

12

68

3

12

78

9

13

26

1

13

75

7

13

99

3

11

33

0

11

58

6

11

76

7

11

89

2

12

21

7

12

28

7

12

73

2

13

25

8

13

50

9

100% 101% 103% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f

10

00

To

nn

es

EU Poultry meat production( Forecasts 2015 and 2016 based on estimations )

EU Production EU Consumption Self-sufficiency (in %)

EUW E E K P R I C E S 42

last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR

BROILER

€/100 kg carcase weight

Broiler80%

Turkey15%

Duck5%

Forecast and Production of poultry meat

2015 - Consumption per capita in retail => 22.5 (kg)

174.82

170

175

180

185

190

195

€/ 100 k

g

BROILER EU WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE EVOLUTION

Avg 2011-15

2015

2016

174.82

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

| 14 | 15 | 16 |

€/ 100 k

g

E U, U S A & B R A Z I L B R O I L E R P R I C E S

EU

US

BR

120.8

174.82

131.98

E V O L U T I O N S I N C E

PL2 01115%

FR1 71813% UK

1 68912%

DE1 51111%

ES1 44311%

IT1 295

9%

Other4 03729%

EU Main Producers( 1000 Tonnes product weight)

Year 2015Total = 13 704

(+3.8% over 2014)

6 MSs =

71% of total production

51

58

51

48

47

64

53

24

58

55

10

86

54

40

12

53

33

49

55

10

68

50

87

57

53

00

98

52

86

57

39

94

58

49

92

26

53

28

98

50

28

50

55

56

26

57

34

64

55

56

20

54

03

23

59

50

75

53

62

72

53

74

38

57

08

81

47

06

13 5

54

33

4

51

69

01

52

18

76

55

69

82

56

83

15

55

73

67

49

20

23

24

87

85

0 0 0 0 0

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Placings of broiler chicks( 1 000 pieces )

2014 2015 2016

56

6 7

16 6

70

71

6

68

5 5

71

64

3 8

49

70

2 3

25

73

3 2

78

71

7 2

19

70

7 2

12

73

2 0

92

67

3 4

43

70

2 5

93

70

13

49

52

7 4

13

66

4 0

78

71

4 0

85

67

0 5

25

73

7 4

88

76

1 1

72

73

1 9

54

72

3 2

84

78

9 2

26

70

8 3

27

71

4 2

17

75

60

88

62

1 2

89 7

30

42

0

69

2 7

04

69

6 1

98

74

1 2

10

76

2 0

83

71

3 4

35

68

6 2

28

34

6 7

28

0 0 0

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Forecast and Production of broiler( Tonnes )

2014 2015 2016

88

7

82

1

85

5

80

7 84

6

87

2

57

9

61

6

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Aug15

Jan-Aug16

EU Imports evolution( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight)

Source: Eurostat

1 0

16

1 2

65 1 4

31

1 4

28

1 5

04

1 4

91

95

1

1 0

40

0

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Aug15

Jan-Aug16

EU Exports evolution( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight)

Source: Eurostat

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2014 2015 2016

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2014 2015 2016

EUR / USD EUR / BRL

Page 2: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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Pric

es

- 0.2% - 1.3% - 5.0%

EUW E E K P R I C E S 42

last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR

BROILER

€/100 kg carcase weight

174.82

€/ 100 k

g

E V O L U T I O N S I N C E

Source: MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/2008)

Page 3: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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Source: MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/2008)

170

175

180

185

190

195

€/ 100 k

gBROILER EU WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE EVOLUTION

Avg 2011-15

2015

2016

174.82

Page 4: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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Broiler

80%

Turkey15%

Duck

5%

Forecast and Production of poultry meat

2015 - Consumption per capita in retail => 22.5 (kg)

Source: MSs notifications – Expert group

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Page 5: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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Sources : EU = weighted average of MS prices Broiler 65% US = weekly USDA prices Fresh chicken grade A ,Chicago BR = average of prices in main producing states (Aveworld.com.br)

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

| 14 | 15 | 16 |

€/ 1

00 k

g

E U, U S A & B R A Z I L B R O I L E R P R I C E S

EU

US

BR

120.8

174.82

131.98

Page 6: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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Source: ECB (European Central Bank)

1,00

1,10

1,20

1,30

Sep

t.

De

c.

Ma

r.

Jun

e

Sep

t.

De

c.

Ma

r.

Jun

e

EUR / USD

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

Sep

t.

De

c.

Ma

r.

Jun

e

Sep

t.

De

c.

Ma

r.

Jun

e

EUR / BRL

EUR / USD EUR / BRL

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2014 2015 2016

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2014 2015 2016

Page 7: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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Source: Reg. (EC) 617/2008

52

1 8

42

48

9 8

41

53

8 5

88

55

4 2

71

54

9 2

22

53

8 3

48

55

4 6

33

51

5 8

43

53

4 0

13

52

9 1

37

40

8 0

65

50

7 1

92

53

2 8

98

50

2 8

50

55

5 6

26

57

3 4

64

55

5 6

20

54

0 3

23

59

5 0

75

53

6 2

72

53

7 4

38

57

0 8

81

47

0 6

13 5

54

33

4

51

6 9

01

52

1 8

76

55

6 9

82

56

8 3

15

55

7 3

67

49

2 0

23

24

8 7

85

#N

/A

#N

/A

#N

/A

#N

/A

#N

/A

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Placings of broiler chicks( 1 000 pieces )

2014 2015 2016

Page 8: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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Source: Reg. (EC) 617/2008

566

716 67

0 71

6

685

571

643

849

702

325

733

278

717

219

707

212

732

092

673

443

702

593

701

349

527

413

664

078

714

085

670

525

737

488

761

172

731

954

723

284

789

226

708

327

714

217

756

088

621

289 73

0 42

0

692

704

696

198

741

210

762

083

713

435

686

228

346

728

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Forecast and Production of broiler( Tonnes )

2014 2015 2016

Page 9: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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Source: Eurostat

PL2.01115%

FR1.71813% UK

1.68912%

DE1.51111%

ES1.44311%

IT1.295

9%

Other4.03729%

EU Main Producers( 1000 Tonnes PW )

Year 2015Total = 13 704

(+3.8% over 2014)

Page 10: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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11.3

54

11.6

55

12.1

21

12.3

51

12.6

83

12.7

89

13.2

61

13.7

57

13.9

93

11.3

30

11.5

86

11.7

67

11.8

92

12.2

17

12.2

87

12.7

32

13.2

58

13.5

09

100% 101% 103% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

0

4.000

8.000

12.000

16.000

20.000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f

1000

Tonn

es

EU Poultry meat production( Forecasts 2015 and 2016 based on estimations )

EU Production EU Consumption Self-sufficiency (in %)

Source: Eurostat

Page 11: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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3.94

2

4.18

1

4.07

5

3.39

7

1.41

3

1.40

4

1.18

7

1.12

2

681

640

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

2014 2015

In 1

000

tonn

es P

W

World Main EXPORTERS( 89% of Total Exports )

Brazil United States EU Hong Kong & China Thailand

2014 : 12 798

2015 : 12 093

Source: GTA

Page 12: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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1.56

7

1.32

1

900 948

881

839

791

808

393 47

8

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2014 2015

In 1

000

tonn

es P

W

World Main IMPORTERS

( 69% of Total Imports )

Hong Kong + China Japan Mexico EU South Africa

2014 : 6 895

2015 : 6 378

Source: GTA

Page 13: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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1 0

16 1

26

5 1 4

31

1 42

8

1 50

4

1 49

1

951

1 04

0

0

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Aug15

Jan-Aug16

EU Exports evolution( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight)

Source: Eurostat

Page 14: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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Source: Eurostat

EU-28 EXPORTS ( Top Destinations in 2015 /16 )

Period:2015 2016 % Chg

EU-28 951 388 1 039 710 + 9.3 %South Africa 131 525 176 791 + 34.4 %

Philippines 61 708 85 132 + 38.0 %

Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 %

Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 %

Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 %

Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 %

Ghana 46 784 50 105 + 7.1 %

Other 411 769 420 187 + 2.0 %

EU-28 Exports (Top destinations in 2015/16)POULTRY MEAT (Tonnes carcase weight)

Jan-Aug

Page 15: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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887

821 85

5

807 84

6

872

579

616

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Aug15

Jan-Aug16

EU Imports evolution( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight)

Source: Eurostat

Page 16: e PW W - Agro-alimentarias · 2016. 10. 31. · Benin 104 507 83 112 - 20.5 % Saudi Arabia 90 220 79 796 - 11.6 % Hong Kong 56 079 79 354 + 41.5 % Ukraine 48 795 65 233 + 33.7 % Ghana

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Source: Eurostat

EU-28 IMPORTS ( Main Partners in 2015 /16 )

Period: 2015 2016 % Chg

EU-28 579 294 616 029 + 6.3%

Brazil 329 068 343 388 + 4.4 %

Thailand 188 951 200 982 + 6.4 %

Ukraine 25 156 30 065 + 19.5 %

Chile 12 895 22 199 + 72.2 %

China 11 922 11 193 - 6.1 %

Argentina 5 916 4 335 - 26.7 %

Switzerland 1 706 1 558 - 8.7 %

Other 3 681 2 310 - 37.3 %

EU-28 Imports (Main partners in 2015/16)POULTRY Meat (Tonnes carcase weight)

Jan-Aug


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