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Retail is the fine art of separating consumers from their money
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We often overestimate how quickly change will happen
We often underestimate the magnitude
of the changes when it does happen
(Gerd Leonhard, Media Futurist, 2009)
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“E-Trade Conference 2013”
The Retail Facts Belgium 2013 and the effect of E-commerce on shops in 20 minutes
Gerard Zandbergen @1gerard
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Locatus visits 400.000 shops every year
Amsterdam Brussels Barcelona
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Overview Belgium: Shops everywhere
212.000 Retail outlets
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België: overal lege winkels..
And: vacant units everywhere
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0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
18,0%
20,0%
A1 A2 B1 B2 C
Vacancy Belgium per segment 2013
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The 4 big (external) drivers effecting retail
Crisis
Demography
Urbanisation
Technology
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Retail drivers:
Bigger
Out-of-Town
Retail Chains
Footfall
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Sectors effected: Hearing aids
0
50
100
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Sectors effected: Video stores
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
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800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Current Direct E-commerce Retail Effects
VERY LIMITED IN BELGIUM Not really there yet..
Video shops -47%
Internet/calling shops -41%
Radio/TV shops -37%
Betting shops -32%
Photo/film shops -30%
Postoffices -28%
DIY small shops -27%
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Expected Direct E-commerce Retail Effects
Where to be expected? • Food? • Crafts?
And by When?
We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes when it does happen
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Expected Direct E-commerce Retail Effects, next 5 years
Not at all (hairdressers): 68% Slightly (supermarkets): 20% Large (clothing): 9% Massive (electronics) 3%
We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes when it does happen
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Gerard Zandbergen CEO Locatus International Research Direct: +31348490270 Mobile: +31621553096 Locatus International Research Pelmolenlaan 10 Postbus 139 3440AC Woerden [email protected] www.locatus.com BLOG www.retailreflect.com TWITTER @1gerard
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