Research ArticleDynamic Impacts of Climate and Land-UseChanges on Surface Runoff in the Mountainous Regionof the Haihe River Basin China

Ruonan Li12 Hua Zheng 12 Binbin Huang12 Huashan Xu1 and Yunkai Li3

1State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100085 China2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China3College of Water Resources amp Civil Engineering China Agricultural University Beijing 100083 China

Correspondence should be addressed to Hua Zheng zhenghuarceesaccn

Received 22 September 2017 Accepted 8 February 2018 Published 19 March 2018

Academic Editor Roberto Fraile

Copyright copy 2018 Ruonan Li et al This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution Licensewhich permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited

The relative contributions of different factors to the variation in surface runoffhave been broadly quantifiedHowever little attentionhas been paid to how these relative contributions have changed over time We analyzed the changes in surface runoff during1980ndash2010 in six subbasins in the mountainous region of the Haihe River Basin one of the most serious water shortage regionsin China and identified the changes in the relative contributions of climate (precipitation and temperature) and land-use to surfacerunoff decrease There was a decreasing tendency in surface runoff in all subbasins four of which had an abrupt change pointaround 1998 Comparing the relative contributions before and after 1998 in the four subbasins the average influence of climate wasfound to decline dramatically from 671 to 305 while that of land-use increased from 239 to 695mainly due to the increaseof forest area Our results revealed that the primary environmental factor responsible for runoff variations was not constant and analternation may accentuate the impact and stimulate an abrupt change of runoff in semiarid and semihumid mountainous regionsThis will help in taking tracking measures to deal with the complex water resource challenges according to different driving factors

1 Introduction

Water resources and the range of services they provideunderpin poverty reduction economic growth and environ-mental sustainability [1] By linking land and oceans riverrunoff is an important component of the water resourceused for sustainable development and human consumptionand it affects the livelihoods of billions of people [2 3]In many areas the volume of river runoff has displayed adecreasing tendency due to excess exploitation by humansand climate change and water scarcity has become a globalenvironmental problem that hinders human safety and socialdevelopment [4ndash7]

Many studies have identified climate change and changesin land-use (LU) to be the two main factors influencingthe variation in river runoff In a water-limited region

the influence of climate change is usually represented byvarious stages of the water cycle for example rainfall andevapotranspiration [8ndash10] Empirical models such as time-series analyses and hydrological mechanisms have been usedto study the influence of climate change on runoff variation[11ndash13] The continuous increase in anthropogenic activitiescan be simplified and represented as LU changes enabling theapplication of comprehensive models and statistical methods[14ndash16] Also the impacts of LU changes on surface runoff atdifferent spatial and temporal scales have been studied [17ndash21]

In China almost the entire country has experiencedthe dilemma of economic development and water shortage[22 23] with the Haihe River Basin (HRB) being the mostseverely stressed region [24ndash26] The HRB is located in mid-eastern China where the climate is semiarid and semihumid

HindawiAdvances in MeteorologyVolume 2018 Article ID 3287343 10 pageshttpsdoiorg10115520183287343

2 Advances in Meteorology

with the highest rate of water sources exploitation amongall of Chinarsquos river basins [27] The long-term shortage ofwater resources in theHRBhas triggered a series of problemssuch as a decrease in surface runoff [28 29] lake andwetland shrinking [30] groundwater overexploitation [25]aggravation of water pollution [31 32] and the degradationof ecosystem function [33 34]

Numerous studies have assessed the trends in riverrunoff the factors that influence it and the relative con-tributions of different environmental factors (eg [35 36])In the HRB runoff has shown a significant downwardtrend in recent decades [28 37 38] A decrease in runofffrom the headstream in mountainous areas has limitedthe downstream surface flow in the HRB [39ndash41] Pre-vious studies have focused mainly on the entire HRBand have identified the factors that influence runoff vari-ation [38 42ndash44] but they have paid less attention tothe variational relative contributions of these factors whichhave influence on surface runoff over time Such studieswould improve our understanding of the dynamic relation-ships between surface runoff and environmental factors aswell as the management of complex water resource chal-lenges

In this study we used the mountainous area of theHRB as an example and analyzed the surface runoff ten-dencies of six subwatersheds over the period of 1980ndash2010and their responses to different driving factors at dif-ferent stages of the study period The main objectiveswere to (i) determine the tendencies of surface runoffclimate factors and LU from 1980 to 2010 and identifythe break point of the change in surface runoff and (ii)compare the differences in the relative contribution ofdifferent environmental factors before and after the breakpoint to provide water resource management informa-tion

2 Study Area

The HRB is located in north China A total of 586 ofits area is mountainous in the west and north with anelevation between 65 and 3058m (Figure 1) The HRB isa temperate continental monsoon region with a semiaridand semihumid climate in which 75ndash85 of precipitationoccurs in the flood season (from June to September) Thearea consistently experiences sand-dust storms in spring[45] The HRB encompasses one of the largest metropolitanregions in China including Beijing Tianjin and HebeiProvince which together account for 81 of the popu-lation and 101 of the GDP but 093 of the naturalwater resource of the whole nation [46 47] As the largesturbanized region and one of the major grain producingareas in northern China long-term water shortages haveled to a series of environmental issues in the HRB [25 48]Many water conservation projects have been adopted inthe HRB including dams weirs gates and water divisionsas well as water-saving measures in farming and industry[47] and they have helped to alleviate the water crisisAdditionally several ecological restoration and revegetation

projects have been completed since the 1970s [49] As thewater-producing region of the basin the mountainous areaof the HRB was selected for study Based on the classi-fication of Haihe River Water Conservancy Commissionthere are six subwatersheds in the mountainous area ofthe HRB that is Luan River Basin (LRB) Chaobai RiverBasin (CRB) Yongding River Basin (YRB) Daqing River(DRB) Ziya River Basin (ZRB) andZhangRiver Basin (ZRB)(Figure 1)

3 Materials and Methodology

31 Surface Runoff and Environmental Factor Trend AnalysisA trend analysis was used to determine the change in thedirection of runoff The Mann-Kendall method was appliedfor the trend analysis

119878 = 119899minus1sum119896=1

119899sum119895=119896+1

sgn (119883119895 minus 119883119896)

sgn (119883119895 minus 119883119896) =

1 119883119895 minus 119883119896 gt 00 119883119895 minus 119883119896 = 0minus1 119883119895 minus 119883119896 lt 0

var (119878) = 119899 (119899 minus 1) (2119899 + 5)18

119885 =

119878 + 1radicvar (119878) 119878 gt 00 119878 = 0119878 minus 1radicvar (119878) 119878 lt 0

(1)

where 119883119895 and 119883119896 are the sequential data values of the timeseries in years 119895 and 119896 and 119899 is the length of the time seriesPositive values of119885 indicate increasing trends while negativevalues indicate decreasing trends in the time series When|119885| gt 1198851minus1205722 the null hypothesis is rejected and a significanttrend exists in the time series 1198851minus1205722 is the critical value of 119885from the standard normal table and for the 1 5 and 10levels of significance the value of1198851minus1205722 is 258 196 and 165respectively

32 Environmental Factors Based on the previous studies ofthe HRB climate and LU have been identified as the primaryfactors responsible for the decrease in runoff [37 38 42 43]Considering the in situ conditions of themountainous regionof the HRB which is less disturbed by human activities thanelsewhere in the basin the following environmental factorswere selected as the influencing factors precipitation airtemperature proportion of forest farmland and grass andthe leaf area index (LAI) (Table 1)

33 TrendAnalysis andCalculation of the Contribution of EachFactor An abrupt change analysis was used to identify thebreak point In this study the Pettitt test ((2) to (6)) and

Advances in Meteorology 3

Tianjin

Beijing

Shijiazhuang

LRB

YRB

ZRB

CRB

ZhRB

DRB

CityMeteorological stationHydrologic station

RiverMountain area subbasinHaihe River Basin

0 80 16040(km)

3058 (m)

65

45∘N

30∘N

15∘N

75∘E 90

∘E 120∘E 135

∘E

Figure 1 Haihe River Basin (HRB) and the subbasins in the mountainous region of the basin Luan River Basin (LRB) and Chaobai RiverBasin (CRB) are located in the north Yongding River Basin (YRB) and Daqing River Basin (DRB) are located in the center Ziya River Basin(ZRB) and Zhang River Basin (ZhRB) are located in the south

4 Advances in Meteorology

Table 1 Environmental factors used to analyze the decrease in runoff

Category Factor Description and unit of measure

Meteorology Precipitation Annual precipitation mmAir temperature Annual air temperature ∘C

Land-use

Proportion of forest Forest areatotal areaProportion of grassland Grassland areatotal areaProportion of farmland Farmland areatotal areaLeaf area index (LAI) Calculated by the temporal spatial filter method [50]

the moving 119879 Test (see (7)) were both applied for an abruptchange analysis enabling a cross validation to be performed

119880119905119899 = 119880119905minus1119899 + 119873sum119894=1

sgn (119883119905 minus 119883119894) 1 le 119905 le 119873 (2)

sgn (119883119905 minus 119883119894) =

1 119883119905 minus 119883119894 gt 00 119883119905 minus 119883119894 = 0minus1 119883119905 minus 119883119894 lt 0

(3)

1198801119899 = 119873sum119894=1

sgn (1198831 minus 119883119894) 2 le 119905 le 119873 (4)

The most probable change point 119905 was found where its valuesatisfied the following

119870119905 = max1le119905le119873

10038161003816100381610038161198801199051198991003816100381610038161003816 (5)

and the significance probability associated with the value 119870119905was approximately evaluated as

119901 = 2 expminus 61198962119905(1198993 + 1198992) (6)

where 119880119905119899 is the statistical index119905 = 1199091 minus 1199092119904 sdot radic11198991 + 11198992

119904 = radic 119899111990421 + 1198992119904221198991 + 1198992 minus 2

1199041 = radicsum1198991

119905=1 119909119905 minus 11990911198991 minus 1

1199042 = radicsum1198992

119905=1 119909119905 minus 11990921198992 minus 1

(7)

where 119905 is the statistical value 119909119894 is the subdataset 119899119894 is thelength of the subdataset 119909119894 is the average of the subdatasetand 119904119894 is the standard deviation

For the calculation of the relative contributions of differ-ent environmental factors a multiple linear regressionmodelwas used to identify the main influencing factors and thevariancewas used to quantify the relative contribution of each

factor [51 52] The multiple linear regression analyses wereconducted using SPSS software (Version 21) [53] while theanalysis of the relative contributions was performed using theR statistical analysis software (Version 098) [54]

34DataCollection Thestudy used hydrology climate land-use (area of forest farmland and grassland) and LAI datafrom 1980 to 2010The observed annual runoff precipitationand air temperature were collected from 36 hydrologic sta-tions which were obtained from the ldquoHydrological almanacof Haihe River Basinrdquo and 72 meteorological stations usinginformation downloaded from the China MeteorologicalData Service Center (httpdatacmacn) The spline inter-polation method was used to calculate and estimate themeanmeteorological data based on theArcMap 101 platformThematic mapper (TM) images were obtained from anonline source (US Geological Survey) [55] and were used toextract land-use information and the normalized differencevegetation index (NDVI) was used to calculate the LAI by thetemporal spatial filter method

4 Results

41 The Changing Trend of Environmental Factors and RunoffDuring the period of 1980ndash2010 the trend analysis indicateda declining trend in all subbasinsTheMann-Kendall methodidentified significantly decreasing tendencies (|119885| gt 196119901 lt 005) in all subbasins except the ZRB Air temperaturedisplayed a significant upward trend in all subbasins (|119885| gt258 119901 lt 001) but there was no significant trend forprecipitation (Figure 2)

From the LU changes farmland area displayed a decliningtrend in all subbasins (|119885| gt 165 119901 lt 01) except theZhRB The forest and grassland areas displayed an upwardand downward tendency (|119885| gt 165 119901 lt 01) respectivelybut this was not significant in both the YRB and ZRB Inall subbasins LAI displayed a significant increasing trend(|119885| gt 258 119901 lt 001) due to the large increase of forest coverwhile the trend slowed down after 1989 (Figure 3)

42 Identification of the Abrupt Change Point of Runoff andEnvironmental Factors A Pettitt test and moving 119905-test wereapplied to identify the abrupt change point of runoff Theresults showed that an abrupt change point of runoff existedin the north (LRB and CRB) and central (DRB and YRB)regions around 1998 (from 1997 to 1999 Figure 4) while nochange point was detected in the south (ZRB and ZRB)

Advances in Meteorology 3

Tianjin

Beijing

Shijiazhuang

LRB

YRB

ZRB

CRB

ZhRB

DRB

CityMeteorological stationHydrologic station

RiverMountain area subbasinHaihe River Basin

0 80 16040(km)

3058 (m)

65

45∘N

30∘N

15∘N

75∘E 90

∘E 120∘E 135

∘E

Figure 1 Haihe River Basin (HRB) and the subbasins in the mountainous region of the basin Luan River Basin (LRB) and Chaobai RiverBasin (CRB) are located in the north Yongding River Basin (YRB) and Daqing River Basin (DRB) are located in the center Ziya River Basin(ZRB) and Zhang River Basin (ZhRB) are located in the south

4 Advances in Meteorology

Table 1 Environmental factors used to analyze the decrease in runoff

Category Factor Description and unit of measure

Meteorology Precipitation Annual precipitation mmAir temperature Annual air temperature ∘C

Land-use

Proportion of forest Forest areatotal areaProportion of grassland Grassland areatotal areaProportion of farmland Farmland areatotal areaLeaf area index (LAI) Calculated by the temporal spatial filter method [50]

the moving 119879 Test (see (7)) were both applied for an abruptchange analysis enabling a cross validation to be performed

119880119905119899 = 119880119905minus1119899 + 119873sum119894=1

sgn (119883119905 minus 119883119894) 1 le 119905 le 119873 (2)

sgn (119883119905 minus 119883119894) =

1 119883119905 minus 119883119894 gt 00 119883119905 minus 119883119894 = 0minus1 119883119905 minus 119883119894 lt 0

(3)

1198801119899 = 119873sum119894=1

sgn (1198831 minus 119883119894) 2 le 119905 le 119873 (4)

The most probable change point 119905 was found where its valuesatisfied the following

119870119905 = max1le119905le119873

10038161003816100381610038161198801199051198991003816100381610038161003816 (5)

and the significance probability associated with the value 119870119905was approximately evaluated as

119901 = 2 expminus 61198962119905(1198993 + 1198992) (6)

where 119880119905119899 is the statistical index119905 = 1199091 minus 1199092119904 sdot radic11198991 + 11198992

119904 = radic 119899111990421 + 1198992119904221198991 + 1198992 minus 2

1199041 = radicsum1198991

119905=1 119909119905 minus 11990911198991 minus 1

1199042 = radicsum1198992

119905=1 119909119905 minus 11990921198992 minus 1

(7)

where 119905 is the statistical value 119909119894 is the subdataset 119899119894 is thelength of the subdataset 119909119894 is the average of the subdatasetand 119904119894 is the standard deviation

For the calculation of the relative contributions of differ-ent environmental factors a multiple linear regressionmodelwas used to identify the main influencing factors and thevariancewas used to quantify the relative contribution of each

factor [51 52] The multiple linear regression analyses wereconducted using SPSS software (Version 21) [53] while theanalysis of the relative contributions was performed using theR statistical analysis software (Version 098) [54]

34DataCollection Thestudy used hydrology climate land-use (area of forest farmland and grassland) and LAI datafrom 1980 to 2010The observed annual runoff precipitationand air temperature were collected from 36 hydrologic sta-tions which were obtained from the ldquoHydrological almanacof Haihe River Basinrdquo and 72 meteorological stations usinginformation downloaded from the China MeteorologicalData Service Center (httpdatacmacn) The spline inter-polation method was used to calculate and estimate themeanmeteorological data based on theArcMap 101 platformThematic mapper (TM) images were obtained from anonline source (US Geological Survey) [55] and were used toextract land-use information and the normalized differencevegetation index (NDVI) was used to calculate the LAI by thetemporal spatial filter method

4 Results

41 The Changing Trend of Environmental Factors and RunoffDuring the period of 1980ndash2010 the trend analysis indicateda declining trend in all subbasinsTheMann-Kendall methodidentified significantly decreasing tendencies (|119885| gt 196119901 lt 005) in all subbasins except the ZRB Air temperaturedisplayed a significant upward trend in all subbasins (|119885| gt258 119901 lt 001) but there was no significant trend forprecipitation (Figure 2)

From the LU changes farmland area displayed a decliningtrend in all subbasins (|119885| gt 165 119901 lt 01) except theZhRB The forest and grassland areas displayed an upwardand downward tendency (|119885| gt 165 119901 lt 01) respectivelybut this was not significant in both the YRB and ZRB Inall subbasins LAI displayed a significant increasing trend(|119885| gt 258 119901 lt 001) due to the large increase of forest coverwhile the trend slowed down after 1989 (Figure 3)

42 Identification of the Abrupt Change Point of Runoff andEnvironmental Factors A Pettitt test and moving 119905-test wereapplied to identify the abrupt change point of runoff Theresults showed that an abrupt change point of runoff existedin the north (LRB and CRB) and central (DRB and YRB)regions around 1998 (from 1997 to 1999 Figure 4) while nochange point was detected in the south (ZRB and ZRB)

4 Advances in Meteorology

Table 1 Environmental factors used to analyze the decrease in runoff

Category Factor Description and unit of measure

Meteorology Precipitation Annual precipitation mmAir temperature Annual air temperature ∘C

Land-use

Proportion of forest Forest areatotal areaProportion of grassland Grassland areatotal areaProportion of farmland Farmland areatotal areaLeaf area index (LAI) Calculated by the temporal spatial filter method [50]

the moving 119879 Test (see (7)) were both applied for an abruptchange analysis enabling a cross validation to be performed

119880119905119899 = 119880119905minus1119899 + 119873sum119894=1

sgn (119883119905 minus 119883119894) 1 le 119905 le 119873 (2)

sgn (119883119905 minus 119883119894) =

1 119883119905 minus 119883119894 gt 00 119883119905 minus 119883119894 = 0minus1 119883119905 minus 119883119894 lt 0

(3)

1198801119899 = 119873sum119894=1

sgn (1198831 minus 119883119894) 2 le 119905 le 119873 (4)

The most probable change point 119905 was found where its valuesatisfied the following

119870119905 = max1le119905le119873

10038161003816100381610038161198801199051198991003816100381610038161003816 (5)

and the significance probability associated with the value 119870119905was approximately evaluated as

119901 = 2 expminus 61198962119905(1198993 + 1198992) (6)

where 119880119905119899 is the statistical index119905 = 1199091 minus 1199092119904 sdot radic11198991 + 11198992

119904 = radic 119899111990421 + 1198992119904221198991 + 1198992 minus 2

1199041 = radicsum1198991

119905=1 119909119905 minus 11990911198991 minus 1

1199042 = radicsum1198992

119905=1 119909119905 minus 11990921198992 minus 1

(7)

where 119905 is the statistical value 119909119894 is the subdataset 119899119894 is thelength of the subdataset 119909119894 is the average of the subdatasetand 119904119894 is the standard deviation

For the calculation of the relative contributions of differ-ent environmental factors a multiple linear regressionmodelwas used to identify the main influencing factors and thevariancewas used to quantify the relative contribution of each

factor [51 52] The multiple linear regression analyses wereconducted using SPSS software (Version 21) [53] while theanalysis of the relative contributions was performed using theR statistical analysis software (Version 098) [54]

34DataCollection Thestudy used hydrology climate land-use (area of forest farmland and grassland) and LAI datafrom 1980 to 2010The observed annual runoff precipitationand air temperature were collected from 36 hydrologic sta-tions which were obtained from the ldquoHydrological almanacof Haihe River Basinrdquo and 72 meteorological stations usinginformation downloaded from the China MeteorologicalData Service Center (httpdatacmacn) The spline inter-polation method was used to calculate and estimate themeanmeteorological data based on theArcMap 101 platformThematic mapper (TM) images were obtained from anonline source (US Geological Survey) [55] and were used toextract land-use information and the normalized differencevegetation index (NDVI) was used to calculate the LAI by thetemporal spatial filter method

4 Results

41 The Changing Trend of Environmental Factors and RunoffDuring the period of 1980ndash2010 the trend analysis indicateda declining trend in all subbasinsTheMann-Kendall methodidentified significantly decreasing tendencies (|119885| gt 196119901 lt 005) in all subbasins except the ZRB Air temperaturedisplayed a significant upward trend in all subbasins (|119885| gt258 119901 lt 001) but there was no significant trend forprecipitation (Figure 2)

From the LU changes farmland area displayed a decliningtrend in all subbasins (|119885| gt 165 119901 lt 01) except theZhRB The forest and grassland areas displayed an upwardand downward tendency (|119885| gt 165 119901 lt 01) respectivelybut this was not significant in both the YRB and ZRB Inall subbasins LAI displayed a significant increasing trend(|119885| gt 258 119901 lt 001) due to the large increase of forest coverwhile the trend slowed down after 1989 (Figure 3)

42 Identification of the Abrupt Change Point of Runoff andEnvironmental Factors A Pettitt test and moving 119905-test wereapplied to identify the abrupt change point of runoff Theresults showed that an abrupt change point of runoff existedin the north (LRB and CRB) and central (DRB and YRB)regions around 1998 (from 1997 to 1999 Figure 4) while nochange point was detected in the south (ZRB and ZRB)

Advances in Meteorology 5

0

5

10

0

40

80

1980 1990 2000 2010

Ann

ual r

unoff

dep

th (m

m)

Ann

ual p

reci

pita

tion

(cm

)

Year

Ann

ual a

ir te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

(a)

0

4

8

0

50

100

1980 1990 2000 2010

Ann

ual r

unoff

dep

th (m

m)

Ann

ual p

reci

pita

tion

(cm

)

Year

Ann

ual a

ir te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

(b)

0

4

8

0

40

80

1980 1990 2000 2010

Ann

ual r

unoff

dep

th (m

m)

Ann

ual p

reci

pita

tion

(cm

)

Year

Ann

ual a

ir te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

(c)

0

6

12

0

40

80

1980 1990 2000 2010

Ann

ual r

unoff

dep

th (m

m)

Ann

ual p

reci

pita

tion

(cm

)

Year

Ann

ual a

ir te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

(d)

0

5

10

0

40

80

1980 1990 2000 2010Year

Ann

ual r

unoff

dep

th (m

m)

Ann

ual p

reci

pita

tion

(cm

)

Ann

ual a

ir te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

(e)

0

6

12

0

40

80

1980 1990 2000 2010Year

Ann

ual r

unoff

dep

th (m

m)

Ann

ual p

reci

pita

tion

(cm

)

Ann

ual a

ir te

mpe

ratu

re (∘

C)

(f)

Figure 2 Tendency of annual runoff depth (blue circle) precipitation (red triangle) and air temperature (green diamond) The dashed linesrepresent the linear fitted trend from 1980 to 2010 (a) is Luan River Basin (LRB) (b) is Chaobai River Basin (CRB) (c) is Yongding RiverBasin (YRB) (d) is Daqing River Basin (DRB) (e) is Ziya River Basin (ZRB) and (f) is Zhang River Basin (ZhRB)

An abrupt change point was also identified for the otherenvironmental factors that displayed significant trends Thechange point of air temperature was in 1993 for LRB CRBand DRB and in 1996 for YRB ZRB and ZhRB The area offorest farmland and grassland had a change point around1994ndash1998 while the change point for LAI was detected at1988-1989

43TheContribution of Different Environmental Factors to theVariation in Runoff Figure 5 shows the relative contributions

of different environmental factors to the variation in runoffin the subbasins from 1980 to 2010 Other than in YRBthe effect of climate was most significant with an overallcontribution of 54ndash92 which gradually increased fromnorth to south The influence of precipitation was strongerthan air temperature In YRB LU was the principal factorinfluencing changes in runoff followed by climate Thereasons for this discrepancy may be due to this subbasinhaving the largest area of farmland (more than 40 duringthe study period) of the six subbasins studied

6 Advances in Meteorology

Table 2 Correlation coefficients for the relationship between runoff and environmental factors form 1980 to 2010

LRB CRB YRB DRB ZRB ZhRBMeteorology

Precipitation 053lowastlowast 056lowastlowast mdash mdash 045lowast 051lowastlowastAir temperature minus038lowast mdash minus068lowastlowast minus046lowastlowast mdash minus038lowast

Land-useFarmland 056lowastlowast 049lowastlowast 081lowastlowast mdash mdash mdashForest minus052lowastlowast minus049lowastlowast mdash minus041lowast mdash mdashGrassland 055lowastlowast 051lowastlowast minus055lowastlowast 038lowast mdash mdashLAI mdash mdash mdash mdash mdash mdash

lowast119901 lt 005 lowastlowast119901 lt 001 mdashthe value was not statistically significant LRB Luan River Basin CRB Chaobai River Basin YRB Yongding River Basin DRBDaqing River Basin ZRB Ziya River Basin ZhRB Zhang River Basin

06

10

14

1980 1990 2000 2010

LAI

Year

Luan River BasinChaobai River BasinDaqing River Basin

Yongding River BasinZiya River BasinZhang River Basin

Figure 3 Changes in the annual leaf area index (LAI) in the sixsubbasins The figure shows the results of a linear fitting to the LAIvalues before (the dashed line) and after (the dash dotted line) 1989

Figure 6 shows the relative contributions before and after1998 in the subbasins The results show a similar patternto that of the overall contributions from 1980 to 2010 withclimate being the most significant contributor in LRB CRBand DRB while LU was dominant in YRB before 1998After the change point the contribution of climate decreaseddramatically and accordingly the proportional contributionof LU increased markedly

5 Discussion

51 The Correlation between Runoff and Environmental Fac-tors A correlation analysis was also conducted with theresults listed in Table 2 There was a positive correlationbetween runoff and both precipitation and the area of farm-land and a negative correlation with both air temperature andthe area of forest which was in accordance with previousstudies [28 56 57] However grassland is also in the potentfunction of water conservation [58] but it had a positiverelationship with runoff in LRB CRB and DRB also Thereason for this was attributed to the large decline in thearea of grassland (decreased by 50) which weakened thewater retention capacity From the subbasin perspective the

variation in runoff in the southern subbasins (ZRB andZhRB) was only related to climate factors and in all sixsubbasins there was no correlation with the LAI

Considering the relative contributions from 1980 to 2010the LAI had the least impact (had an influence in YRB witha contribution of 1752 only) with the correlation analysisindicating it has no relationship with the variation in runoffUnlike the other subbasins LU change was the dominantfactor in YRB (farmland was the uppermost contributor)This was reflected by the large correlation coefficient betweenfarmland and runoff (081 119901 lt 001) Climate factorsaccounted formore than 80of the overall variation in runoffin the southern subbasins whichwasmuch higher than in theother subbasins while other factors had no relationship withrunoff in ZRB and ZhRB

52 The Driving Forces of the Abrupt Change Point of Runoffand the Differences in the Contribution of the EnvironmentalFactors to the Variation in Runoff According to our analysisclimate and LU were the major factors responsible for thedecline in runoff in the mountainous region of the HRB andthe driving force of changes in these parameters also needs tobe investigated Based on previous studies global warmingis likely to be the primary factor responsible for the risein air temperature During 1981ndash1985 and 1993ndash1998 long-lasting and high-intensity El NinoLa Nina events occurredalternately and had a large impact on the climate of northChina [59] including a rise in air temperature During theperiod investigated by this study there was also a substantialincrease in the area of forest and a decline in the area offarmland and grassland due to ecological restoration projectsThe Three-North Shelter Forest Program (scheduled fromthe late 1970s to 2050) and the Beijing-Tianjin Sand SourceControl Project (scheduled from the early 2000s to 2022)[49] cover most of the northern and central part of themountainous region of the HRB where an abrupt changepoint of runoff was identified The variation of the LAIincreased dramatically until around 1989 due to afforestationand then tended to be stable or slowly increase with avalue fluctuating around 08ndash14 After more than 10 years ofafforestation the LAI was limited by the variety of land-useand trees in the HRB and the observed tendency of the LAIwas in accordance with Liu et al [60]

Advances in Meteorology 7

minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

0

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

1998

1998

(a)minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

19981998

(b)

minus3

minus1

1

3

5

minus150

0

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

19991998

(c)minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

19971997

(d)

minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

(e)

minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

(f)

Figure 4The identification of the abrupt change point of runoff in the sixmountainous subbasinsThe blue and red dots represent the abruptchange point of runoff obtained by a Pettitt test (PT) and moving 119905-test (MTT) respectively The blue and red lines represent the statisticalvalues obtained by the method of PT and MTT respectively The dashed lines represent a significance level of 001 (a) is Luan River Basin(LRB) (b) is Chaobai River Basin (CRB) (c) is Yongding River Basin (YRB) (d) is Daqing River Basin (DRB) (e) is Ziya River Basin (ZRB)and (f) is Zhang River Basin (ZhRB)

53 The Differences in the Contribution of the Environmen-tal Factors before and after the Change Point of SurfaceRunoff Comparing their proportional contributions beforeand after the abrupt change point of surface runoff theproportion accounted for by climate declined by more than50 (Figure 6) and LU became the dominant factor Thischange could be ascribed to the variation in both climate andLU In terms of the overall tendency the factors that had apositive relationship with runoff (farmland grassland andprecipitation) displayed a significant downward trend or nosignificant increase while the factors that had a negative rela-tionship with runoff (air temperature and forest) displayed a

dramatic upward trend Therefore the continual decline ofrunoff was caused by the combined contribution of variousenvironmental factorsWhen considering the different stagesof the study period the increase in the temperature trend after1998 was weaker than before 1998 and the precipitation trendwas upward after 1998 The LU factors continued to displaysignificant trends in all stages of the period studied It couldbe inferred that the extensive proportional contribution ofLU after 1998 has had an extensive impact on the decline inrunoff

In the northern and central subbasins the abrupt changepoint of climate was several years earlier than those of

8 Advances in Meteorology

0 50 100Luan River

Chaobai River

Daqing River

Yongding River

Ziya River

Zhang River

ClimateLand use

()

Figure 5 The contribution of climate and land-use changes to thevariation in runoff in the six subbasins in the period of 1980ndash2010The statistical significance was lt001 in Luan River Basin (LRB)Chaobai River Basin (CRB) Yongding River Basin (YRB) andDaqing River Basin (DRB) while it was lt01 in Ziya River Basin(ZRB) and Zhang River Basin (ZhRB)

ClimateLand use

Luan River

Chaobai River

Daqing River

Yongding River

0

1980ndash1998 1998ndash2010

50 100 0 50 100()

Figure 6 The contributions of climate and land-use changes to thevariation in runoff in subbasins before and after the runoff changepoint (1998) The blue bar represents the contribution of climaticfactors on the decrease in runoff and the red bar represents thecontribution of land-use factorsThe statistical significancewaslt01

runoff and LU However there was no correlation in thelag between annual runoff and either precipitation or airtemperatureTherefore the abrupt change of runoffmay havebeen triggered by LU changes in the mountainous region ofthe HRB despite the combination of accumulated climateeffects

6 Conclusion

This study investigated the trends in runoff climate andLU in six subbasins in the mountainous region of the HRBfor the period of 1980ndash2010 During this period surfacerunoff decreased significantly in all subbasins except ZRBAir temperature increased significantly while there was nosignificant trend in precipitation In terms of LU the area of

forest and LAI had a significant upward trend while the areaof farmland and grassland displayed the opposite trend

Abrupt change points were detected for runoff air tem-perature and LU factors The change point of surface runoffwas around 1998 Apart from the LAI the change points of theother environmental factors were relatively concentrated inthe period of 1993ndash1999 with climatic factors having a changepoint several years earlier than LU factors Multiple linearregressions of the data produced good fits for the period of1980ndash2010 and for the periods before and after the abruptchange point of runoff which indicated that climate and LUwere the two main factors leading to variations in surfacerunoff

Climate was the most important factor over the entiretime sequence and particularly before the abrupt changepoint of runoff but sharply decreases after that Both climateand LU factors continued to be responsible for the decreasein runoff after 1998 but the impacts of LU were remarkableand may be the critical factor stimulating the changes inrunoff The study revealed that the primary environmentalfactor responsible for variations in runoff was not constantand an alternation between different factors may accentuatethe impact and stimulate an abrupt change of runoff insemiarid and semihumid mountainous regions Our resultsemphasize the need for the long-term monitoring of thedynamic changes of factors driving the variation in surfacerunoffThis will help in taking trackingmeasures to deal withthe complex water resource challenges through focusing onthe dynamic changes of the key factors driving surface runoffvariation

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Natural ScienceFoundation of China (Grants nos 41371538 and 51479188)and the National Key Research and Development Programof China (Grant no 2016YFC0503401)

References

[1] WWAP (UnitedNationsWorldWater Assessment Programme)The United Nations World Water Development Report 2015Water for a Sustainable World UNESCO Paris France 2015

[2] W G V Balchin ldquoDevelopment and utilization of water resour-cesrdquo Nature vol 174 no 4422 pp 213-214 1954

[3] J Liu andW Yang ldquoWater sustainability for China and beyondrdquoScience vol 337 no 6095 pp 649-650 2012

[4] M Falkenmark ldquoThe massive water scarcity now threateningAfrica - why isnrsquot it being addressedrdquoAMBIO vol 18 no 2 pp112ndash118 1989

[5] S L Postel ldquoEntering an era of water scarcity The challengesaheadrdquo Ecological Applications vol 10 no 4 pp 941ndash948 2000

[6] S N Gosling and N W Arnell ldquoA global assessment of theimpact of climate change on water scarcityrdquo Climatic Changevol 134 no 3 pp 371ndash385 2016

Advances in Meteorology 9

[7] M M Mekonnen and A Y Hoekstra ldquoFour billion peoplefacing severe water scarcityrdquo Science advances vol 2 no 2 pe1500323 2016

[8] S Bergstrom B Carlsson M Gardelin G Lindstrom APettersson and M Rummukainen ldquoClimate change impactson runoff in Sweden assessments by global climate modelsdynamical down-scaling and hydrological modellingrdquo ClimateResearch vol 16 pp 101ndash112 2001

[9] M C Ramos and J A Martınez-Casasnovas ldquoClimate changeinfluence on runoff and soil losses in a rainfed basin withMediterranean climaterdquo Natural Hazards vol 78 no 2 pp1065ndash1089 2015

[10] Q Zhang and P Shi ldquoHydrological response to large-scaleclimate variability across the Pearl River basin China Spa-tiotemporal patterns and sensitivityrdquo Global and PlanetaryChange vol 149 pp 1ndash13 2017

[11] NW Arnell ldquoClimate change scenarios from a regional climatemodel Estimating change in runoff in southern Africardquo Journalof Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 108 no D16 2003

[12] L P Koedyk and D G Kingston ldquoPotential evapotranspirationmethod influence on climate change impacts on river flow Amid-latitude case studyrdquo Hydrology Research vol 47 no 5 pp951ndash963 2016

[13] A E Coles B G McConkey and J J McDonnell ldquoClimatechange impacts on hillslope runoff on the northern GreatPlains 1962ndash2013rdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 550 pp 538ndash5482017

[14] J K Loslashrup J C Refsgaard and D Mazvimavi ldquoAssessing theeffect of land use change on catchment runoff by combined useof statistical tests and hydrological modelling case studies fromZimbabwerdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 205 no 3-4 pp 147ndash1631998

[15] N Sajikumar and R S Remya ldquoImpact of land cover and landuse change on runoff characteristicsrdquo Journal of EnvironmentalManagement vol 161 pp 460ndash468 2015

[16] J Chen L Theller M W Gitau B A Engel and J M HarborldquoUrbanization impacts on surface runoff of the contiguousUnited Statesrdquo Journal of Environmental Management vol 187pp 470ndash481 2017

[17] D Niehoff U Fritsch and A Bronstert ldquoLand-use impactson storm-runoff generation Scenarios of land-use change andsimulation of hydrological response in a meso-scale catchmentin SW-Germanyrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 267 no 1-2 pp 80ndash93 2002

[18] N Algeet-Abarquero M Marchamalo J Bonatti J Fernandez-Moya and R Moussa ldquoImplications of land use change onrunoff generation at the plot scale in the humid tropics of CostaRicardquo Catena vol 135 pp 263ndash270 2015

[19] F Wang R Hessel X Mu et al ldquoDistinguishing the impactsof human activities and climate variability on runoff andsediment load change based on paired periods with similarweather conditions A case in the Yan River Chinardquo Journal ofHydrology vol 527 pp 884ndash893 2015

[20] Q Yang H Tian M A M Friedrichs M Liu X Li and JYang ldquoHydrological responses to climate and land-use changesalong the north american east coast A 110-Year historical recon-structionrdquo JAWRA Journal of the American Water ResourcesAssociation vol 51 no 1 pp 47ndash67 2015

[21] D Kong C Miao J Wu and Q Duan ldquoImpact assessment ofclimate change and human activities on net runoff in the YellowRiver Basin from 1951 to 2012rdquo Ecological Engineering vol 91pp 566ndash573 2016

[22] Y Jiang ldquoChinarsquos water scarcityrdquo Journal of Environmental Man-agement vol 90 no 11 pp 3185ndash3196 2009

[23] C Peng and J Zhang ldquoAddressing urbanwater resource scarcityin China from water resource planning experiences of Sing-aporerdquo Advanced Materials Research vol 433-440 pp 1213ndash1218 2012

[24] H Zheng Y Li B E Robinson et al ldquoUsing ecosystem servicetrade-offs to inform water conservation policies and manage-ment practicesrdquo Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment vol14 no 10 pp 527ndash532 2016

[25] C Liu and J Xia ldquoWater problems and hydrological research inthe Yellow River and the Huai and Hai River basins of ChinardquoHydrological Processes vol 18 no 12 pp 2197ndash2210 2004

[26] J Xia H Feng C Zhan and G Niu ldquoDetermination of areasonable percentage for ecological water-use in the HaiheRiver Basin Chinardquo Pedosphere vol 16 no 1 pp 33ndash42 2006

[27] ldquoHaihe River Water Conservancy Commission MWRrdquo HaiheRiver Basin Water Resources Bulletin 2010

[28] J-Y Zhang S-L Zhang J-XWang and Y Li ldquoStudy on runofftrends of the six larger basins in China over the past 50 yearsrdquoAdvances in Water Science vol 18 no 2 pp 230ndash234 2007

[29] Z J Yao Y P Guan and Y C Gao ldquoAnalysis of distributionregulation of annual runoff and affection of annual runoff byhuman activity in the Chaobaihe Riverrdquo Progress in Geographyvol 22 pp 599ndash606 2003 (Chinese)

[30] J Xia L Zhang C Liu and J Yu ldquoTowards better water securityinNorth ChinardquoWater ResourcesManagement vol 21 no 1 pp233ndash247 2007

[31] S Sun S Huang X Sun and W Wen ldquoPhosphorus fractionsand its release in the sediments of Haihe River Chinardquo Journalof Environmental Sciences vol 21 no 3 pp 291ndash295 2009

[32] H Huang and J Xia ldquoImpacts of Water Pollution and Shortageon the Economic Development of the Haihe River BasinrdquoResources Science vol 28 no 2 p 2 2008 (Chinese)

[33] H Ren W Shen H Lu X Wen and S Jian ldquoDegradedecosystems in China status causes and restoration effortsrdquoLandscape Ecological Engineering vol 3 pp 1ndash13 2007

[34] T Yang J Liu and Q Chen ldquoAssessment of plain riverecosystem function based on improved gray system model andanalytic hierarchy process for the Fuyang River Haihe RiverBasin Chinardquo Ecological Modelling vol 268 pp 37ndash47 2013

[35] Y H Yang and F Tian ldquoAbrupt change of runoff and its majordriving factors in Haihe River Catchment Chinardquo Journal ofHydrology vol 374 no 3-4 pp 373ndash383 2009

[36] J D Hughes K C Petrone and R P Silberstein ldquoDroughtgroundwater storage and stream flow decline in southwesternAustraliardquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 39 no 3 Article IDL03408 2012

[37] Z Bao J Zhang G Wang et al ldquoAttribution for decreasingstreamflow of the Haihe River basin Northern China climatevariability or human activitiesrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 460-461 pp 117ndash129 2012

[38] H Lei D Yang andM Huang ldquoImpacts of climate change andvegetation dynamics on runoff in themountainous region of theHaihe River basin in the past five decadesrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 511 pp 786ndash799 2014

[39] H Wang Evolution of watershed ecological hydrology in Haihebasin mountainous area [Doctoral thesis] Beijing ForestryUniversity 2015

[40] M Chen Y Xie and Y Feng ldquoInfluence of Human Activity onConsistency of Runoff Series in Haihe River Basinrdquo Journal ofChina Hydrology vol 27 no 3 pp 57ndash59 2007

10 Advances in Meteorology

[41] F Yuan Z-H Xie L-L Ren and Q Huang ldquoHydrologicalvariation in Haihe River Basin due to climate changerdquo Journalof Hydraulic Engineering vol 36 no 3 pp 274ndash279 2005

[42] Y Guo and Y Shen ldquoQuantifying water and energy budgets andthe impacts of climatic and human factors in the Haihe RiverBasin China 2 Trends and implications to water resourcesrdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 527 pp 251ndash261 2015

[43] H Wang L Chen and X Yu ldquoDistinguishing human andclimate influences on streamflow changes in Luan River basinin Chinardquo Catena vol 136 pp 182ndash188 2016

[44] L Zhao J Xia L Sobkowiak andZ Li ldquoClimatic characteristicsof reference evapotranspiration in the hai river basin and theirattributionrdquo Water (Switzerland) vol 6 no 6 pp 1482ndash14992014

[45] Y Xiong The study of water resources carrying capacity andits ecosystem services values in Hahe Basin [Master thesis]Tsinghua University 2004

[46] ldquoNBS National Bureau of Statistics of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChin 2017rdquo httpwwwstatsgovcntjsjtjgbndtjgb

[47] MWR Ministry of Water Resources of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChina China water resources bulletin 2015 2015

[48] SC State Council of the Peoplersquos Republic of China The Outlineof the Plan for Coordinated Development for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region 2015

[49] F Yang Assessment on the suitability of geographical zones fea-ture for six forestry programs in China [Master thesis] LanzhouJiaotong 2015

[50] H Fang S Liang and A Kuusk ldquoRetrieving leaf area indexusing a genetic algorithm with a canopy radiative transfermodelrdquo Remote Sensing of Environment vol 85 no 3 pp 257ndash270 2003

[51] J W Johnson ldquoA heuristic method for estimating the relativeweight of predictor variables in multiple regressionrdquoMultivari-ate Behavioral Research vol 35 no 1 pp 1ndash19 2000

[52] I R Kabacoff R in action-Data analysis and graphics with RManning Publications Co 2011

[53] IBM SPSS Statistics Version 21 2012 httpswwwibmcomana-lyticsusentechnologyspss

[54] R Studio Version 098 2014 httpswwwr-projectorg[55] US Geological Survey 2015 httpsglovisusgsgov[56] G Wang D Yan D Zhang and S Liu ldquoTrend analysis of

variation in extreme precipitation and temperature in HaiheRiver Basin from 1961-2010rdquo South to NorthWater Transfers andWater Science and Technology vol 12 pp 1ndash6 2014

[57] L Xu Y GuoM Liu et al ldquoAnalysis of Temperature Trends andChange Points in the Haihe River Basin Over the Last 50 YearsrdquoResources Science vol 33 no 5 pp 995ndash1001 2011 (Chinese)

[58] K Herweg and E Ludi ldquoThe performance of selected soil andwater conservation measuresmdashcase studies from Ethiopia andEritreardquo Catena vol 36 no 1-2 pp 99ndash114 1999

[59] C Zhang The study on climate impact of ENSO since [Masterthesis] Shaanxi Normal University 1950

[60] Y Liu W Ju J Chen et al ldquoSpatial and temporal variations offorest LAI in China during 2000-2010rdquoChinese Science Bulletinvol 57 no 22 pp 2846ndash2856 2012

6 Advances in Meteorology

Table 2 Correlation coefficients for the relationship between runoff and environmental factors form 1980 to 2010

LRB CRB YRB DRB ZRB ZhRBMeteorology

Precipitation 053lowastlowast 056lowastlowast mdash mdash 045lowast 051lowastlowastAir temperature minus038lowast mdash minus068lowastlowast minus046lowastlowast mdash minus038lowast

Land-useFarmland 056lowastlowast 049lowastlowast 081lowastlowast mdash mdash mdashForest minus052lowastlowast minus049lowastlowast mdash minus041lowast mdash mdashGrassland 055lowastlowast 051lowastlowast minus055lowastlowast 038lowast mdash mdashLAI mdash mdash mdash mdash mdash mdash

lowast119901 lt 005 lowastlowast119901 lt 001 mdashthe value was not statistically significant LRB Luan River Basin CRB Chaobai River Basin YRB Yongding River Basin DRBDaqing River Basin ZRB Ziya River Basin ZhRB Zhang River Basin

06

10

14

1980 1990 2000 2010

LAI

Year

Luan River BasinChaobai River BasinDaqing River Basin

Yongding River BasinZiya River BasinZhang River Basin

Figure 3 Changes in the annual leaf area index (LAI) in the sixsubbasins The figure shows the results of a linear fitting to the LAIvalues before (the dashed line) and after (the dash dotted line) 1989

Figure 6 shows the relative contributions before and after1998 in the subbasins The results show a similar patternto that of the overall contributions from 1980 to 2010 withclimate being the most significant contributor in LRB CRBand DRB while LU was dominant in YRB before 1998After the change point the contribution of climate decreaseddramatically and accordingly the proportional contributionof LU increased markedly

5 Discussion

51 The Correlation between Runoff and Environmental Fac-tors A correlation analysis was also conducted with theresults listed in Table 2 There was a positive correlationbetween runoff and both precipitation and the area of farm-land and a negative correlation with both air temperature andthe area of forest which was in accordance with previousstudies [28 56 57] However grassland is also in the potentfunction of water conservation [58] but it had a positiverelationship with runoff in LRB CRB and DRB also Thereason for this was attributed to the large decline in thearea of grassland (decreased by 50) which weakened thewater retention capacity From the subbasin perspective the

variation in runoff in the southern subbasins (ZRB andZhRB) was only related to climate factors and in all sixsubbasins there was no correlation with the LAI

Considering the relative contributions from 1980 to 2010the LAI had the least impact (had an influence in YRB witha contribution of 1752 only) with the correlation analysisindicating it has no relationship with the variation in runoffUnlike the other subbasins LU change was the dominantfactor in YRB (farmland was the uppermost contributor)This was reflected by the large correlation coefficient betweenfarmland and runoff (081 119901 lt 001) Climate factorsaccounted formore than 80of the overall variation in runoffin the southern subbasins whichwasmuch higher than in theother subbasins while other factors had no relationship withrunoff in ZRB and ZhRB

52 The Driving Forces of the Abrupt Change Point of Runoffand the Differences in the Contribution of the EnvironmentalFactors to the Variation in Runoff According to our analysisclimate and LU were the major factors responsible for thedecline in runoff in the mountainous region of the HRB andthe driving force of changes in these parameters also needs tobe investigated Based on previous studies global warmingis likely to be the primary factor responsible for the risein air temperature During 1981ndash1985 and 1993ndash1998 long-lasting and high-intensity El NinoLa Nina events occurredalternately and had a large impact on the climate of northChina [59] including a rise in air temperature During theperiod investigated by this study there was also a substantialincrease in the area of forest and a decline in the area offarmland and grassland due to ecological restoration projectsThe Three-North Shelter Forest Program (scheduled fromthe late 1970s to 2050) and the Beijing-Tianjin Sand SourceControl Project (scheduled from the early 2000s to 2022)[49] cover most of the northern and central part of themountainous region of the HRB where an abrupt changepoint of runoff was identified The variation of the LAIincreased dramatically until around 1989 due to afforestationand then tended to be stable or slowly increase with avalue fluctuating around 08ndash14 After more than 10 years ofafforestation the LAI was limited by the variety of land-useand trees in the HRB and the observed tendency of the LAIwas in accordance with Liu et al [60]

Advances in Meteorology 7

minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

0

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

1998

1998

(a)minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

19981998

(b)

minus3

minus1

1

3

5

minus150

0

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

19991998

(c)minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

19971997

(d)

minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

(e)

minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

(f)

Figure 4The identification of the abrupt change point of runoff in the sixmountainous subbasinsThe blue and red dots represent the abruptchange point of runoff obtained by a Pettitt test (PT) and moving 119905-test (MTT) respectively The blue and red lines represent the statisticalvalues obtained by the method of PT and MTT respectively The dashed lines represent a significance level of 001 (a) is Luan River Basin(LRB) (b) is Chaobai River Basin (CRB) (c) is Yongding River Basin (YRB) (d) is Daqing River Basin (DRB) (e) is Ziya River Basin (ZRB)and (f) is Zhang River Basin (ZhRB)

53 The Differences in the Contribution of the Environmen-tal Factors before and after the Change Point of SurfaceRunoff Comparing their proportional contributions beforeand after the abrupt change point of surface runoff theproportion accounted for by climate declined by more than50 (Figure 6) and LU became the dominant factor Thischange could be ascribed to the variation in both climate andLU In terms of the overall tendency the factors that had apositive relationship with runoff (farmland grassland andprecipitation) displayed a significant downward trend or nosignificant increase while the factors that had a negative rela-tionship with runoff (air temperature and forest) displayed a

dramatic upward trend Therefore the continual decline ofrunoff was caused by the combined contribution of variousenvironmental factorsWhen considering the different stagesof the study period the increase in the temperature trend after1998 was weaker than before 1998 and the precipitation trendwas upward after 1998 The LU factors continued to displaysignificant trends in all stages of the period studied It couldbe inferred that the extensive proportional contribution ofLU after 1998 has had an extensive impact on the decline inrunoff

In the northern and central subbasins the abrupt changepoint of climate was several years earlier than those of

8 Advances in Meteorology

0 50 100Luan River

Chaobai River

Daqing River

Yongding River

Ziya River

Zhang River

ClimateLand use

()

Figure 5 The contribution of climate and land-use changes to thevariation in runoff in the six subbasins in the period of 1980ndash2010The statistical significance was lt001 in Luan River Basin (LRB)Chaobai River Basin (CRB) Yongding River Basin (YRB) andDaqing River Basin (DRB) while it was lt01 in Ziya River Basin(ZRB) and Zhang River Basin (ZhRB)

ClimateLand use

Luan River

Chaobai River

Daqing River

Yongding River

0

1980ndash1998 1998ndash2010

50 100 0 50 100()

Figure 6 The contributions of climate and land-use changes to thevariation in runoff in subbasins before and after the runoff changepoint (1998) The blue bar represents the contribution of climaticfactors on the decrease in runoff and the red bar represents thecontribution of land-use factorsThe statistical significancewaslt01

runoff and LU However there was no correlation in thelag between annual runoff and either precipitation or airtemperatureTherefore the abrupt change of runoffmay havebeen triggered by LU changes in the mountainous region ofthe HRB despite the combination of accumulated climateeffects

6 Conclusion

This study investigated the trends in runoff climate andLU in six subbasins in the mountainous region of the HRBfor the period of 1980ndash2010 During this period surfacerunoff decreased significantly in all subbasins except ZRBAir temperature increased significantly while there was nosignificant trend in precipitation In terms of LU the area of

forest and LAI had a significant upward trend while the areaof farmland and grassland displayed the opposite trend

Abrupt change points were detected for runoff air tem-perature and LU factors The change point of surface runoffwas around 1998 Apart from the LAI the change points of theother environmental factors were relatively concentrated inthe period of 1993ndash1999 with climatic factors having a changepoint several years earlier than LU factors Multiple linearregressions of the data produced good fits for the period of1980ndash2010 and for the periods before and after the abruptchange point of runoff which indicated that climate and LUwere the two main factors leading to variations in surfacerunoff

Climate was the most important factor over the entiretime sequence and particularly before the abrupt changepoint of runoff but sharply decreases after that Both climateand LU factors continued to be responsible for the decreasein runoff after 1998 but the impacts of LU were remarkableand may be the critical factor stimulating the changes inrunoff The study revealed that the primary environmentalfactor responsible for variations in runoff was not constantand an alternation between different factors may accentuatethe impact and stimulate an abrupt change of runoff insemiarid and semihumid mountainous regions Our resultsemphasize the need for the long-term monitoring of thedynamic changes of factors driving the variation in surfacerunoffThis will help in taking trackingmeasures to deal withthe complex water resource challenges through focusing onthe dynamic changes of the key factors driving surface runoffvariation

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Natural ScienceFoundation of China (Grants nos 41371538 and 51479188)and the National Key Research and Development Programof China (Grant no 2016YFC0503401)

References

[1] WWAP (UnitedNationsWorldWater Assessment Programme)The United Nations World Water Development Report 2015Water for a Sustainable World UNESCO Paris France 2015

[2] W G V Balchin ldquoDevelopment and utilization of water resour-cesrdquo Nature vol 174 no 4422 pp 213-214 1954

[3] J Liu andW Yang ldquoWater sustainability for China and beyondrdquoScience vol 337 no 6095 pp 649-650 2012

[4] M Falkenmark ldquoThe massive water scarcity now threateningAfrica - why isnrsquot it being addressedrdquoAMBIO vol 18 no 2 pp112ndash118 1989

[5] S L Postel ldquoEntering an era of water scarcity The challengesaheadrdquo Ecological Applications vol 10 no 4 pp 941ndash948 2000

[6] S N Gosling and N W Arnell ldquoA global assessment of theimpact of climate change on water scarcityrdquo Climatic Changevol 134 no 3 pp 371ndash385 2016

Advances in Meteorology 9

[7] M M Mekonnen and A Y Hoekstra ldquoFour billion peoplefacing severe water scarcityrdquo Science advances vol 2 no 2 pe1500323 2016

[8] S Bergstrom B Carlsson M Gardelin G Lindstrom APettersson and M Rummukainen ldquoClimate change impactson runoff in Sweden assessments by global climate modelsdynamical down-scaling and hydrological modellingrdquo ClimateResearch vol 16 pp 101ndash112 2001

[9] M C Ramos and J A Martınez-Casasnovas ldquoClimate changeinfluence on runoff and soil losses in a rainfed basin withMediterranean climaterdquo Natural Hazards vol 78 no 2 pp1065ndash1089 2015

[10] Q Zhang and P Shi ldquoHydrological response to large-scaleclimate variability across the Pearl River basin China Spa-tiotemporal patterns and sensitivityrdquo Global and PlanetaryChange vol 149 pp 1ndash13 2017

[11] NW Arnell ldquoClimate change scenarios from a regional climatemodel Estimating change in runoff in southern Africardquo Journalof Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 108 no D16 2003

[12] L P Koedyk and D G Kingston ldquoPotential evapotranspirationmethod influence on climate change impacts on river flow Amid-latitude case studyrdquo Hydrology Research vol 47 no 5 pp951ndash963 2016

[13] A E Coles B G McConkey and J J McDonnell ldquoClimatechange impacts on hillslope runoff on the northern GreatPlains 1962ndash2013rdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 550 pp 538ndash5482017

[14] J K Loslashrup J C Refsgaard and D Mazvimavi ldquoAssessing theeffect of land use change on catchment runoff by combined useof statistical tests and hydrological modelling case studies fromZimbabwerdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 205 no 3-4 pp 147ndash1631998

[15] N Sajikumar and R S Remya ldquoImpact of land cover and landuse change on runoff characteristicsrdquo Journal of EnvironmentalManagement vol 161 pp 460ndash468 2015

[16] J Chen L Theller M W Gitau B A Engel and J M HarborldquoUrbanization impacts on surface runoff of the contiguousUnited Statesrdquo Journal of Environmental Management vol 187pp 470ndash481 2017

[17] D Niehoff U Fritsch and A Bronstert ldquoLand-use impactson storm-runoff generation Scenarios of land-use change andsimulation of hydrological response in a meso-scale catchmentin SW-Germanyrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 267 no 1-2 pp 80ndash93 2002

[18] N Algeet-Abarquero M Marchamalo J Bonatti J Fernandez-Moya and R Moussa ldquoImplications of land use change onrunoff generation at the plot scale in the humid tropics of CostaRicardquo Catena vol 135 pp 263ndash270 2015

[19] F Wang R Hessel X Mu et al ldquoDistinguishing the impactsof human activities and climate variability on runoff andsediment load change based on paired periods with similarweather conditions A case in the Yan River Chinardquo Journal ofHydrology vol 527 pp 884ndash893 2015

[20] Q Yang H Tian M A M Friedrichs M Liu X Li and JYang ldquoHydrological responses to climate and land-use changesalong the north american east coast A 110-Year historical recon-structionrdquo JAWRA Journal of the American Water ResourcesAssociation vol 51 no 1 pp 47ndash67 2015

[21] D Kong C Miao J Wu and Q Duan ldquoImpact assessment ofclimate change and human activities on net runoff in the YellowRiver Basin from 1951 to 2012rdquo Ecological Engineering vol 91pp 566ndash573 2016

[22] Y Jiang ldquoChinarsquos water scarcityrdquo Journal of Environmental Man-agement vol 90 no 11 pp 3185ndash3196 2009

[23] C Peng and J Zhang ldquoAddressing urbanwater resource scarcityin China from water resource planning experiences of Sing-aporerdquo Advanced Materials Research vol 433-440 pp 1213ndash1218 2012

[24] H Zheng Y Li B E Robinson et al ldquoUsing ecosystem servicetrade-offs to inform water conservation policies and manage-ment practicesrdquo Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment vol14 no 10 pp 527ndash532 2016

[25] C Liu and J Xia ldquoWater problems and hydrological research inthe Yellow River and the Huai and Hai River basins of ChinardquoHydrological Processes vol 18 no 12 pp 2197ndash2210 2004

[26] J Xia H Feng C Zhan and G Niu ldquoDetermination of areasonable percentage for ecological water-use in the HaiheRiver Basin Chinardquo Pedosphere vol 16 no 1 pp 33ndash42 2006

[27] ldquoHaihe River Water Conservancy Commission MWRrdquo HaiheRiver Basin Water Resources Bulletin 2010

[28] J-Y Zhang S-L Zhang J-XWang and Y Li ldquoStudy on runofftrends of the six larger basins in China over the past 50 yearsrdquoAdvances in Water Science vol 18 no 2 pp 230ndash234 2007

[29] Z J Yao Y P Guan and Y C Gao ldquoAnalysis of distributionregulation of annual runoff and affection of annual runoff byhuman activity in the Chaobaihe Riverrdquo Progress in Geographyvol 22 pp 599ndash606 2003 (Chinese)

[30] J Xia L Zhang C Liu and J Yu ldquoTowards better water securityinNorth ChinardquoWater ResourcesManagement vol 21 no 1 pp233ndash247 2007

[31] S Sun S Huang X Sun and W Wen ldquoPhosphorus fractionsand its release in the sediments of Haihe River Chinardquo Journalof Environmental Sciences vol 21 no 3 pp 291ndash295 2009

[32] H Huang and J Xia ldquoImpacts of Water Pollution and Shortageon the Economic Development of the Haihe River BasinrdquoResources Science vol 28 no 2 p 2 2008 (Chinese)

[33] H Ren W Shen H Lu X Wen and S Jian ldquoDegradedecosystems in China status causes and restoration effortsrdquoLandscape Ecological Engineering vol 3 pp 1ndash13 2007

[34] T Yang J Liu and Q Chen ldquoAssessment of plain riverecosystem function based on improved gray system model andanalytic hierarchy process for the Fuyang River Haihe RiverBasin Chinardquo Ecological Modelling vol 268 pp 37ndash47 2013

[35] Y H Yang and F Tian ldquoAbrupt change of runoff and its majordriving factors in Haihe River Catchment Chinardquo Journal ofHydrology vol 374 no 3-4 pp 373ndash383 2009

[36] J D Hughes K C Petrone and R P Silberstein ldquoDroughtgroundwater storage and stream flow decline in southwesternAustraliardquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 39 no 3 Article IDL03408 2012

[37] Z Bao J Zhang G Wang et al ldquoAttribution for decreasingstreamflow of the Haihe River basin Northern China climatevariability or human activitiesrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 460-461 pp 117ndash129 2012

[38] H Lei D Yang andM Huang ldquoImpacts of climate change andvegetation dynamics on runoff in themountainous region of theHaihe River basin in the past five decadesrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 511 pp 786ndash799 2014

[39] H Wang Evolution of watershed ecological hydrology in Haihebasin mountainous area [Doctoral thesis] Beijing ForestryUniversity 2015

[40] M Chen Y Xie and Y Feng ldquoInfluence of Human Activity onConsistency of Runoff Series in Haihe River Basinrdquo Journal ofChina Hydrology vol 27 no 3 pp 57ndash59 2007

10 Advances in Meteorology

[41] F Yuan Z-H Xie L-L Ren and Q Huang ldquoHydrologicalvariation in Haihe River Basin due to climate changerdquo Journalof Hydraulic Engineering vol 36 no 3 pp 274ndash279 2005

[42] Y Guo and Y Shen ldquoQuantifying water and energy budgets andthe impacts of climatic and human factors in the Haihe RiverBasin China 2 Trends and implications to water resourcesrdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 527 pp 251ndash261 2015

[43] H Wang L Chen and X Yu ldquoDistinguishing human andclimate influences on streamflow changes in Luan River basinin Chinardquo Catena vol 136 pp 182ndash188 2016

[44] L Zhao J Xia L Sobkowiak andZ Li ldquoClimatic characteristicsof reference evapotranspiration in the hai river basin and theirattributionrdquo Water (Switzerland) vol 6 no 6 pp 1482ndash14992014

[45] Y Xiong The study of water resources carrying capacity andits ecosystem services values in Hahe Basin [Master thesis]Tsinghua University 2004

[46] ldquoNBS National Bureau of Statistics of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChin 2017rdquo httpwwwstatsgovcntjsjtjgbndtjgb

[47] MWR Ministry of Water Resources of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChina China water resources bulletin 2015 2015

[48] SC State Council of the Peoplersquos Republic of China The Outlineof the Plan for Coordinated Development for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region 2015

[49] F Yang Assessment on the suitability of geographical zones fea-ture for six forestry programs in China [Master thesis] LanzhouJiaotong 2015

[50] H Fang S Liang and A Kuusk ldquoRetrieving leaf area indexusing a genetic algorithm with a canopy radiative transfermodelrdquo Remote Sensing of Environment vol 85 no 3 pp 257ndash270 2003

[51] J W Johnson ldquoA heuristic method for estimating the relativeweight of predictor variables in multiple regressionrdquoMultivari-ate Behavioral Research vol 35 no 1 pp 1ndash19 2000

[52] I R Kabacoff R in action-Data analysis and graphics with RManning Publications Co 2011

[53] IBM SPSS Statistics Version 21 2012 httpswwwibmcomana-lyticsusentechnologyspss

[54] R Studio Version 098 2014 httpswwwr-projectorg[55] US Geological Survey 2015 httpsglovisusgsgov[56] G Wang D Yan D Zhang and S Liu ldquoTrend analysis of

variation in extreme precipitation and temperature in HaiheRiver Basin from 1961-2010rdquo South to NorthWater Transfers andWater Science and Technology vol 12 pp 1ndash6 2014

[57] L Xu Y GuoM Liu et al ldquoAnalysis of Temperature Trends andChange Points in the Haihe River Basin Over the Last 50 YearsrdquoResources Science vol 33 no 5 pp 995ndash1001 2011 (Chinese)

[58] K Herweg and E Ludi ldquoThe performance of selected soil andwater conservation measuresmdashcase studies from Ethiopia andEritreardquo Catena vol 36 no 1-2 pp 99ndash114 1999

[59] C Zhang The study on climate impact of ENSO since [Masterthesis] Shaanxi Normal University 1950

[60] Y Liu W Ju J Chen et al ldquoSpatial and temporal variations offorest LAI in China during 2000-2010rdquoChinese Science Bulletinvol 57 no 22 pp 2846ndash2856 2012

Advances in Meteorology 7

minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

0

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

1998

1998

(a)minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

19981998

(b)

minus3

minus1

1

3

5

minus150

0

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

19991998

(c)minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

19971997

(d)

minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

(e)

minus4

minus2

0

2

4

minus150

minus50

50

150

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Z st

atist

ics (

MTT

)

Z st

atist

ics (

PT)

Year

(f)

Figure 4The identification of the abrupt change point of runoff in the sixmountainous subbasinsThe blue and red dots represent the abruptchange point of runoff obtained by a Pettitt test (PT) and moving 119905-test (MTT) respectively The blue and red lines represent the statisticalvalues obtained by the method of PT and MTT respectively The dashed lines represent a significance level of 001 (a) is Luan River Basin(LRB) (b) is Chaobai River Basin (CRB) (c) is Yongding River Basin (YRB) (d) is Daqing River Basin (DRB) (e) is Ziya River Basin (ZRB)and (f) is Zhang River Basin (ZhRB)

53 The Differences in the Contribution of the Environmen-tal Factors before and after the Change Point of SurfaceRunoff Comparing their proportional contributions beforeand after the abrupt change point of surface runoff theproportion accounted for by climate declined by more than50 (Figure 6) and LU became the dominant factor Thischange could be ascribed to the variation in both climate andLU In terms of the overall tendency the factors that had apositive relationship with runoff (farmland grassland andprecipitation) displayed a significant downward trend or nosignificant increase while the factors that had a negative rela-tionship with runoff (air temperature and forest) displayed a

dramatic upward trend Therefore the continual decline ofrunoff was caused by the combined contribution of variousenvironmental factorsWhen considering the different stagesof the study period the increase in the temperature trend after1998 was weaker than before 1998 and the precipitation trendwas upward after 1998 The LU factors continued to displaysignificant trends in all stages of the period studied It couldbe inferred that the extensive proportional contribution ofLU after 1998 has had an extensive impact on the decline inrunoff

In the northern and central subbasins the abrupt changepoint of climate was several years earlier than those of

8 Advances in Meteorology

0 50 100Luan River

Chaobai River

Daqing River

Yongding River

Ziya River

Zhang River

ClimateLand use

()

Figure 5 The contribution of climate and land-use changes to thevariation in runoff in the six subbasins in the period of 1980ndash2010The statistical significance was lt001 in Luan River Basin (LRB)Chaobai River Basin (CRB) Yongding River Basin (YRB) andDaqing River Basin (DRB) while it was lt01 in Ziya River Basin(ZRB) and Zhang River Basin (ZhRB)

ClimateLand use

Luan River

Chaobai River

Daqing River

Yongding River

0

1980ndash1998 1998ndash2010

50 100 0 50 100()

Figure 6 The contributions of climate and land-use changes to thevariation in runoff in subbasins before and after the runoff changepoint (1998) The blue bar represents the contribution of climaticfactors on the decrease in runoff and the red bar represents thecontribution of land-use factorsThe statistical significancewaslt01

runoff and LU However there was no correlation in thelag between annual runoff and either precipitation or airtemperatureTherefore the abrupt change of runoffmay havebeen triggered by LU changes in the mountainous region ofthe HRB despite the combination of accumulated climateeffects

6 Conclusion

This study investigated the trends in runoff climate andLU in six subbasins in the mountainous region of the HRBfor the period of 1980ndash2010 During this period surfacerunoff decreased significantly in all subbasins except ZRBAir temperature increased significantly while there was nosignificant trend in precipitation In terms of LU the area of

forest and LAI had a significant upward trend while the areaof farmland and grassland displayed the opposite trend

Abrupt change points were detected for runoff air tem-perature and LU factors The change point of surface runoffwas around 1998 Apart from the LAI the change points of theother environmental factors were relatively concentrated inthe period of 1993ndash1999 with climatic factors having a changepoint several years earlier than LU factors Multiple linearregressions of the data produced good fits for the period of1980ndash2010 and for the periods before and after the abruptchange point of runoff which indicated that climate and LUwere the two main factors leading to variations in surfacerunoff

Climate was the most important factor over the entiretime sequence and particularly before the abrupt changepoint of runoff but sharply decreases after that Both climateand LU factors continued to be responsible for the decreasein runoff after 1998 but the impacts of LU were remarkableand may be the critical factor stimulating the changes inrunoff The study revealed that the primary environmentalfactor responsible for variations in runoff was not constantand an alternation between different factors may accentuatethe impact and stimulate an abrupt change of runoff insemiarid and semihumid mountainous regions Our resultsemphasize the need for the long-term monitoring of thedynamic changes of factors driving the variation in surfacerunoffThis will help in taking trackingmeasures to deal withthe complex water resource challenges through focusing onthe dynamic changes of the key factors driving surface runoffvariation

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Natural ScienceFoundation of China (Grants nos 41371538 and 51479188)and the National Key Research and Development Programof China (Grant no 2016YFC0503401)

References

[1] WWAP (UnitedNationsWorldWater Assessment Programme)The United Nations World Water Development Report 2015Water for a Sustainable World UNESCO Paris France 2015

[2] W G V Balchin ldquoDevelopment and utilization of water resour-cesrdquo Nature vol 174 no 4422 pp 213-214 1954

[3] J Liu andW Yang ldquoWater sustainability for China and beyondrdquoScience vol 337 no 6095 pp 649-650 2012

[4] M Falkenmark ldquoThe massive water scarcity now threateningAfrica - why isnrsquot it being addressedrdquoAMBIO vol 18 no 2 pp112ndash118 1989

[5] S L Postel ldquoEntering an era of water scarcity The challengesaheadrdquo Ecological Applications vol 10 no 4 pp 941ndash948 2000

[6] S N Gosling and N W Arnell ldquoA global assessment of theimpact of climate change on water scarcityrdquo Climatic Changevol 134 no 3 pp 371ndash385 2016

Advances in Meteorology 9

[7] M M Mekonnen and A Y Hoekstra ldquoFour billion peoplefacing severe water scarcityrdquo Science advances vol 2 no 2 pe1500323 2016

[8] S Bergstrom B Carlsson M Gardelin G Lindstrom APettersson and M Rummukainen ldquoClimate change impactson runoff in Sweden assessments by global climate modelsdynamical down-scaling and hydrological modellingrdquo ClimateResearch vol 16 pp 101ndash112 2001

[9] M C Ramos and J A Martınez-Casasnovas ldquoClimate changeinfluence on runoff and soil losses in a rainfed basin withMediterranean climaterdquo Natural Hazards vol 78 no 2 pp1065ndash1089 2015

[10] Q Zhang and P Shi ldquoHydrological response to large-scaleclimate variability across the Pearl River basin China Spa-tiotemporal patterns and sensitivityrdquo Global and PlanetaryChange vol 149 pp 1ndash13 2017

[11] NW Arnell ldquoClimate change scenarios from a regional climatemodel Estimating change in runoff in southern Africardquo Journalof Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 108 no D16 2003

[12] L P Koedyk and D G Kingston ldquoPotential evapotranspirationmethod influence on climate change impacts on river flow Amid-latitude case studyrdquo Hydrology Research vol 47 no 5 pp951ndash963 2016

[13] A E Coles B G McConkey and J J McDonnell ldquoClimatechange impacts on hillslope runoff on the northern GreatPlains 1962ndash2013rdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 550 pp 538ndash5482017

[14] J K Loslashrup J C Refsgaard and D Mazvimavi ldquoAssessing theeffect of land use change on catchment runoff by combined useof statistical tests and hydrological modelling case studies fromZimbabwerdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 205 no 3-4 pp 147ndash1631998

[15] N Sajikumar and R S Remya ldquoImpact of land cover and landuse change on runoff characteristicsrdquo Journal of EnvironmentalManagement vol 161 pp 460ndash468 2015

[16] J Chen L Theller M W Gitau B A Engel and J M HarborldquoUrbanization impacts on surface runoff of the contiguousUnited Statesrdquo Journal of Environmental Management vol 187pp 470ndash481 2017

[17] D Niehoff U Fritsch and A Bronstert ldquoLand-use impactson storm-runoff generation Scenarios of land-use change andsimulation of hydrological response in a meso-scale catchmentin SW-Germanyrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 267 no 1-2 pp 80ndash93 2002

[18] N Algeet-Abarquero M Marchamalo J Bonatti J Fernandez-Moya and R Moussa ldquoImplications of land use change onrunoff generation at the plot scale in the humid tropics of CostaRicardquo Catena vol 135 pp 263ndash270 2015

[19] F Wang R Hessel X Mu et al ldquoDistinguishing the impactsof human activities and climate variability on runoff andsediment load change based on paired periods with similarweather conditions A case in the Yan River Chinardquo Journal ofHydrology vol 527 pp 884ndash893 2015

[20] Q Yang H Tian M A M Friedrichs M Liu X Li and JYang ldquoHydrological responses to climate and land-use changesalong the north american east coast A 110-Year historical recon-structionrdquo JAWRA Journal of the American Water ResourcesAssociation vol 51 no 1 pp 47ndash67 2015

[21] D Kong C Miao J Wu and Q Duan ldquoImpact assessment ofclimate change and human activities on net runoff in the YellowRiver Basin from 1951 to 2012rdquo Ecological Engineering vol 91pp 566ndash573 2016

[22] Y Jiang ldquoChinarsquos water scarcityrdquo Journal of Environmental Man-agement vol 90 no 11 pp 3185ndash3196 2009

[23] C Peng and J Zhang ldquoAddressing urbanwater resource scarcityin China from water resource planning experiences of Sing-aporerdquo Advanced Materials Research vol 433-440 pp 1213ndash1218 2012

[24] H Zheng Y Li B E Robinson et al ldquoUsing ecosystem servicetrade-offs to inform water conservation policies and manage-ment practicesrdquo Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment vol14 no 10 pp 527ndash532 2016

[25] C Liu and J Xia ldquoWater problems and hydrological research inthe Yellow River and the Huai and Hai River basins of ChinardquoHydrological Processes vol 18 no 12 pp 2197ndash2210 2004

[26] J Xia H Feng C Zhan and G Niu ldquoDetermination of areasonable percentage for ecological water-use in the HaiheRiver Basin Chinardquo Pedosphere vol 16 no 1 pp 33ndash42 2006

[27] ldquoHaihe River Water Conservancy Commission MWRrdquo HaiheRiver Basin Water Resources Bulletin 2010

[28] J-Y Zhang S-L Zhang J-XWang and Y Li ldquoStudy on runofftrends of the six larger basins in China over the past 50 yearsrdquoAdvances in Water Science vol 18 no 2 pp 230ndash234 2007

[29] Z J Yao Y P Guan and Y C Gao ldquoAnalysis of distributionregulation of annual runoff and affection of annual runoff byhuman activity in the Chaobaihe Riverrdquo Progress in Geographyvol 22 pp 599ndash606 2003 (Chinese)

[30] J Xia L Zhang C Liu and J Yu ldquoTowards better water securityinNorth ChinardquoWater ResourcesManagement vol 21 no 1 pp233ndash247 2007

[31] S Sun S Huang X Sun and W Wen ldquoPhosphorus fractionsand its release in the sediments of Haihe River Chinardquo Journalof Environmental Sciences vol 21 no 3 pp 291ndash295 2009

[32] H Huang and J Xia ldquoImpacts of Water Pollution and Shortageon the Economic Development of the Haihe River BasinrdquoResources Science vol 28 no 2 p 2 2008 (Chinese)

[33] H Ren W Shen H Lu X Wen and S Jian ldquoDegradedecosystems in China status causes and restoration effortsrdquoLandscape Ecological Engineering vol 3 pp 1ndash13 2007

[34] T Yang J Liu and Q Chen ldquoAssessment of plain riverecosystem function based on improved gray system model andanalytic hierarchy process for the Fuyang River Haihe RiverBasin Chinardquo Ecological Modelling vol 268 pp 37ndash47 2013

[35] Y H Yang and F Tian ldquoAbrupt change of runoff and its majordriving factors in Haihe River Catchment Chinardquo Journal ofHydrology vol 374 no 3-4 pp 373ndash383 2009

[36] J D Hughes K C Petrone and R P Silberstein ldquoDroughtgroundwater storage and stream flow decline in southwesternAustraliardquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 39 no 3 Article IDL03408 2012

[37] Z Bao J Zhang G Wang et al ldquoAttribution for decreasingstreamflow of the Haihe River basin Northern China climatevariability or human activitiesrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 460-461 pp 117ndash129 2012

[38] H Lei D Yang andM Huang ldquoImpacts of climate change andvegetation dynamics on runoff in themountainous region of theHaihe River basin in the past five decadesrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 511 pp 786ndash799 2014

[39] H Wang Evolution of watershed ecological hydrology in Haihebasin mountainous area [Doctoral thesis] Beijing ForestryUniversity 2015

[40] M Chen Y Xie and Y Feng ldquoInfluence of Human Activity onConsistency of Runoff Series in Haihe River Basinrdquo Journal ofChina Hydrology vol 27 no 3 pp 57ndash59 2007

10 Advances in Meteorology

[41] F Yuan Z-H Xie L-L Ren and Q Huang ldquoHydrologicalvariation in Haihe River Basin due to climate changerdquo Journalof Hydraulic Engineering vol 36 no 3 pp 274ndash279 2005

[42] Y Guo and Y Shen ldquoQuantifying water and energy budgets andthe impacts of climatic and human factors in the Haihe RiverBasin China 2 Trends and implications to water resourcesrdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 527 pp 251ndash261 2015

[43] H Wang L Chen and X Yu ldquoDistinguishing human andclimate influences on streamflow changes in Luan River basinin Chinardquo Catena vol 136 pp 182ndash188 2016

[44] L Zhao J Xia L Sobkowiak andZ Li ldquoClimatic characteristicsof reference evapotranspiration in the hai river basin and theirattributionrdquo Water (Switzerland) vol 6 no 6 pp 1482ndash14992014

[45] Y Xiong The study of water resources carrying capacity andits ecosystem services values in Hahe Basin [Master thesis]Tsinghua University 2004

[46] ldquoNBS National Bureau of Statistics of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChin 2017rdquo httpwwwstatsgovcntjsjtjgbndtjgb

[47] MWR Ministry of Water Resources of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChina China water resources bulletin 2015 2015

[48] SC State Council of the Peoplersquos Republic of China The Outlineof the Plan for Coordinated Development for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region 2015

[49] F Yang Assessment on the suitability of geographical zones fea-ture for six forestry programs in China [Master thesis] LanzhouJiaotong 2015

[50] H Fang S Liang and A Kuusk ldquoRetrieving leaf area indexusing a genetic algorithm with a canopy radiative transfermodelrdquo Remote Sensing of Environment vol 85 no 3 pp 257ndash270 2003

[51] J W Johnson ldquoA heuristic method for estimating the relativeweight of predictor variables in multiple regressionrdquoMultivari-ate Behavioral Research vol 35 no 1 pp 1ndash19 2000

[52] I R Kabacoff R in action-Data analysis and graphics with RManning Publications Co 2011

[53] IBM SPSS Statistics Version 21 2012 httpswwwibmcomana-lyticsusentechnologyspss

[54] R Studio Version 098 2014 httpswwwr-projectorg[55] US Geological Survey 2015 httpsglovisusgsgov[56] G Wang D Yan D Zhang and S Liu ldquoTrend analysis of

variation in extreme precipitation and temperature in HaiheRiver Basin from 1961-2010rdquo South to NorthWater Transfers andWater Science and Technology vol 12 pp 1ndash6 2014

[57] L Xu Y GuoM Liu et al ldquoAnalysis of Temperature Trends andChange Points in the Haihe River Basin Over the Last 50 YearsrdquoResources Science vol 33 no 5 pp 995ndash1001 2011 (Chinese)

[58] K Herweg and E Ludi ldquoThe performance of selected soil andwater conservation measuresmdashcase studies from Ethiopia andEritreardquo Catena vol 36 no 1-2 pp 99ndash114 1999

[59] C Zhang The study on climate impact of ENSO since [Masterthesis] Shaanxi Normal University 1950

[60] Y Liu W Ju J Chen et al ldquoSpatial and temporal variations offorest LAI in China during 2000-2010rdquoChinese Science Bulletinvol 57 no 22 pp 2846ndash2856 2012

8 Advances in Meteorology

0 50 100Luan River

Chaobai River

Daqing River

Yongding River

Ziya River

Zhang River

ClimateLand use

()

Figure 5 The contribution of climate and land-use changes to thevariation in runoff in the six subbasins in the period of 1980ndash2010The statistical significance was lt001 in Luan River Basin (LRB)Chaobai River Basin (CRB) Yongding River Basin (YRB) andDaqing River Basin (DRB) while it was lt01 in Ziya River Basin(ZRB) and Zhang River Basin (ZhRB)

ClimateLand use

Luan River

Chaobai River

Daqing River

Yongding River

0

1980ndash1998 1998ndash2010

50 100 0 50 100()

Figure 6 The contributions of climate and land-use changes to thevariation in runoff in subbasins before and after the runoff changepoint (1998) The blue bar represents the contribution of climaticfactors on the decrease in runoff and the red bar represents thecontribution of land-use factorsThe statistical significancewaslt01

runoff and LU However there was no correlation in thelag between annual runoff and either precipitation or airtemperatureTherefore the abrupt change of runoffmay havebeen triggered by LU changes in the mountainous region ofthe HRB despite the combination of accumulated climateeffects

6 Conclusion

This study investigated the trends in runoff climate andLU in six subbasins in the mountainous region of the HRBfor the period of 1980ndash2010 During this period surfacerunoff decreased significantly in all subbasins except ZRBAir temperature increased significantly while there was nosignificant trend in precipitation In terms of LU the area of

forest and LAI had a significant upward trend while the areaof farmland and grassland displayed the opposite trend

Abrupt change points were detected for runoff air tem-perature and LU factors The change point of surface runoffwas around 1998 Apart from the LAI the change points of theother environmental factors were relatively concentrated inthe period of 1993ndash1999 with climatic factors having a changepoint several years earlier than LU factors Multiple linearregressions of the data produced good fits for the period of1980ndash2010 and for the periods before and after the abruptchange point of runoff which indicated that climate and LUwere the two main factors leading to variations in surfacerunoff

Climate was the most important factor over the entiretime sequence and particularly before the abrupt changepoint of runoff but sharply decreases after that Both climateand LU factors continued to be responsible for the decreasein runoff after 1998 but the impacts of LU were remarkableand may be the critical factor stimulating the changes inrunoff The study revealed that the primary environmentalfactor responsible for variations in runoff was not constantand an alternation between different factors may accentuatethe impact and stimulate an abrupt change of runoff insemiarid and semihumid mountainous regions Our resultsemphasize the need for the long-term monitoring of thedynamic changes of factors driving the variation in surfacerunoffThis will help in taking trackingmeasures to deal withthe complex water resource challenges through focusing onthe dynamic changes of the key factors driving surface runoffvariation

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Natural ScienceFoundation of China (Grants nos 41371538 and 51479188)and the National Key Research and Development Programof China (Grant no 2016YFC0503401)

References

[1] WWAP (UnitedNationsWorldWater Assessment Programme)The United Nations World Water Development Report 2015Water for a Sustainable World UNESCO Paris France 2015

[2] W G V Balchin ldquoDevelopment and utilization of water resour-cesrdquo Nature vol 174 no 4422 pp 213-214 1954

[3] J Liu andW Yang ldquoWater sustainability for China and beyondrdquoScience vol 337 no 6095 pp 649-650 2012

[4] M Falkenmark ldquoThe massive water scarcity now threateningAfrica - why isnrsquot it being addressedrdquoAMBIO vol 18 no 2 pp112ndash118 1989

[5] S L Postel ldquoEntering an era of water scarcity The challengesaheadrdquo Ecological Applications vol 10 no 4 pp 941ndash948 2000

[6] S N Gosling and N W Arnell ldquoA global assessment of theimpact of climate change on water scarcityrdquo Climatic Changevol 134 no 3 pp 371ndash385 2016

Advances in Meteorology 9

[7] M M Mekonnen and A Y Hoekstra ldquoFour billion peoplefacing severe water scarcityrdquo Science advances vol 2 no 2 pe1500323 2016

[8] S Bergstrom B Carlsson M Gardelin G Lindstrom APettersson and M Rummukainen ldquoClimate change impactson runoff in Sweden assessments by global climate modelsdynamical down-scaling and hydrological modellingrdquo ClimateResearch vol 16 pp 101ndash112 2001

[9] M C Ramos and J A Martınez-Casasnovas ldquoClimate changeinfluence on runoff and soil losses in a rainfed basin withMediterranean climaterdquo Natural Hazards vol 78 no 2 pp1065ndash1089 2015

[10] Q Zhang and P Shi ldquoHydrological response to large-scaleclimate variability across the Pearl River basin China Spa-tiotemporal patterns and sensitivityrdquo Global and PlanetaryChange vol 149 pp 1ndash13 2017

[11] NW Arnell ldquoClimate change scenarios from a regional climatemodel Estimating change in runoff in southern Africardquo Journalof Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 108 no D16 2003

[12] L P Koedyk and D G Kingston ldquoPotential evapotranspirationmethod influence on climate change impacts on river flow Amid-latitude case studyrdquo Hydrology Research vol 47 no 5 pp951ndash963 2016

[13] A E Coles B G McConkey and J J McDonnell ldquoClimatechange impacts on hillslope runoff on the northern GreatPlains 1962ndash2013rdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 550 pp 538ndash5482017

[14] J K Loslashrup J C Refsgaard and D Mazvimavi ldquoAssessing theeffect of land use change on catchment runoff by combined useof statistical tests and hydrological modelling case studies fromZimbabwerdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 205 no 3-4 pp 147ndash1631998

[15] N Sajikumar and R S Remya ldquoImpact of land cover and landuse change on runoff characteristicsrdquo Journal of EnvironmentalManagement vol 161 pp 460ndash468 2015

[16] J Chen L Theller M W Gitau B A Engel and J M HarborldquoUrbanization impacts on surface runoff of the contiguousUnited Statesrdquo Journal of Environmental Management vol 187pp 470ndash481 2017

[17] D Niehoff U Fritsch and A Bronstert ldquoLand-use impactson storm-runoff generation Scenarios of land-use change andsimulation of hydrological response in a meso-scale catchmentin SW-Germanyrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 267 no 1-2 pp 80ndash93 2002

[18] N Algeet-Abarquero M Marchamalo J Bonatti J Fernandez-Moya and R Moussa ldquoImplications of land use change onrunoff generation at the plot scale in the humid tropics of CostaRicardquo Catena vol 135 pp 263ndash270 2015

[19] F Wang R Hessel X Mu et al ldquoDistinguishing the impactsof human activities and climate variability on runoff andsediment load change based on paired periods with similarweather conditions A case in the Yan River Chinardquo Journal ofHydrology vol 527 pp 884ndash893 2015

[20] Q Yang H Tian M A M Friedrichs M Liu X Li and JYang ldquoHydrological responses to climate and land-use changesalong the north american east coast A 110-Year historical recon-structionrdquo JAWRA Journal of the American Water ResourcesAssociation vol 51 no 1 pp 47ndash67 2015

[21] D Kong C Miao J Wu and Q Duan ldquoImpact assessment ofclimate change and human activities on net runoff in the YellowRiver Basin from 1951 to 2012rdquo Ecological Engineering vol 91pp 566ndash573 2016

[22] Y Jiang ldquoChinarsquos water scarcityrdquo Journal of Environmental Man-agement vol 90 no 11 pp 3185ndash3196 2009

[23] C Peng and J Zhang ldquoAddressing urbanwater resource scarcityin China from water resource planning experiences of Sing-aporerdquo Advanced Materials Research vol 433-440 pp 1213ndash1218 2012

[24] H Zheng Y Li B E Robinson et al ldquoUsing ecosystem servicetrade-offs to inform water conservation policies and manage-ment practicesrdquo Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment vol14 no 10 pp 527ndash532 2016

[25] C Liu and J Xia ldquoWater problems and hydrological research inthe Yellow River and the Huai and Hai River basins of ChinardquoHydrological Processes vol 18 no 12 pp 2197ndash2210 2004

[26] J Xia H Feng C Zhan and G Niu ldquoDetermination of areasonable percentage for ecological water-use in the HaiheRiver Basin Chinardquo Pedosphere vol 16 no 1 pp 33ndash42 2006

[27] ldquoHaihe River Water Conservancy Commission MWRrdquo HaiheRiver Basin Water Resources Bulletin 2010

[28] J-Y Zhang S-L Zhang J-XWang and Y Li ldquoStudy on runofftrends of the six larger basins in China over the past 50 yearsrdquoAdvances in Water Science vol 18 no 2 pp 230ndash234 2007

[29] Z J Yao Y P Guan and Y C Gao ldquoAnalysis of distributionregulation of annual runoff and affection of annual runoff byhuman activity in the Chaobaihe Riverrdquo Progress in Geographyvol 22 pp 599ndash606 2003 (Chinese)

[30] J Xia L Zhang C Liu and J Yu ldquoTowards better water securityinNorth ChinardquoWater ResourcesManagement vol 21 no 1 pp233ndash247 2007

[31] S Sun S Huang X Sun and W Wen ldquoPhosphorus fractionsand its release in the sediments of Haihe River Chinardquo Journalof Environmental Sciences vol 21 no 3 pp 291ndash295 2009

[32] H Huang and J Xia ldquoImpacts of Water Pollution and Shortageon the Economic Development of the Haihe River BasinrdquoResources Science vol 28 no 2 p 2 2008 (Chinese)

[33] H Ren W Shen H Lu X Wen and S Jian ldquoDegradedecosystems in China status causes and restoration effortsrdquoLandscape Ecological Engineering vol 3 pp 1ndash13 2007

[34] T Yang J Liu and Q Chen ldquoAssessment of plain riverecosystem function based on improved gray system model andanalytic hierarchy process for the Fuyang River Haihe RiverBasin Chinardquo Ecological Modelling vol 268 pp 37ndash47 2013

[35] Y H Yang and F Tian ldquoAbrupt change of runoff and its majordriving factors in Haihe River Catchment Chinardquo Journal ofHydrology vol 374 no 3-4 pp 373ndash383 2009

[36] J D Hughes K C Petrone and R P Silberstein ldquoDroughtgroundwater storage and stream flow decline in southwesternAustraliardquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 39 no 3 Article IDL03408 2012

[37] Z Bao J Zhang G Wang et al ldquoAttribution for decreasingstreamflow of the Haihe River basin Northern China climatevariability or human activitiesrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 460-461 pp 117ndash129 2012

[38] H Lei D Yang andM Huang ldquoImpacts of climate change andvegetation dynamics on runoff in themountainous region of theHaihe River basin in the past five decadesrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 511 pp 786ndash799 2014

[39] H Wang Evolution of watershed ecological hydrology in Haihebasin mountainous area [Doctoral thesis] Beijing ForestryUniversity 2015

[40] M Chen Y Xie and Y Feng ldquoInfluence of Human Activity onConsistency of Runoff Series in Haihe River Basinrdquo Journal ofChina Hydrology vol 27 no 3 pp 57ndash59 2007

10 Advances in Meteorology

[41] F Yuan Z-H Xie L-L Ren and Q Huang ldquoHydrologicalvariation in Haihe River Basin due to climate changerdquo Journalof Hydraulic Engineering vol 36 no 3 pp 274ndash279 2005

[42] Y Guo and Y Shen ldquoQuantifying water and energy budgets andthe impacts of climatic and human factors in the Haihe RiverBasin China 2 Trends and implications to water resourcesrdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 527 pp 251ndash261 2015

[43] H Wang L Chen and X Yu ldquoDistinguishing human andclimate influences on streamflow changes in Luan River basinin Chinardquo Catena vol 136 pp 182ndash188 2016

[44] L Zhao J Xia L Sobkowiak andZ Li ldquoClimatic characteristicsof reference evapotranspiration in the hai river basin and theirattributionrdquo Water (Switzerland) vol 6 no 6 pp 1482ndash14992014

[45] Y Xiong The study of water resources carrying capacity andits ecosystem services values in Hahe Basin [Master thesis]Tsinghua University 2004

[46] ldquoNBS National Bureau of Statistics of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChin 2017rdquo httpwwwstatsgovcntjsjtjgbndtjgb

[47] MWR Ministry of Water Resources of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChina China water resources bulletin 2015 2015

[48] SC State Council of the Peoplersquos Republic of China The Outlineof the Plan for Coordinated Development for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region 2015

[49] F Yang Assessment on the suitability of geographical zones fea-ture for six forestry programs in China [Master thesis] LanzhouJiaotong 2015

[50] H Fang S Liang and A Kuusk ldquoRetrieving leaf area indexusing a genetic algorithm with a canopy radiative transfermodelrdquo Remote Sensing of Environment vol 85 no 3 pp 257ndash270 2003

[51] J W Johnson ldquoA heuristic method for estimating the relativeweight of predictor variables in multiple regressionrdquoMultivari-ate Behavioral Research vol 35 no 1 pp 1ndash19 2000

[52] I R Kabacoff R in action-Data analysis and graphics with RManning Publications Co 2011

[53] IBM SPSS Statistics Version 21 2012 httpswwwibmcomana-lyticsusentechnologyspss

[54] R Studio Version 098 2014 httpswwwr-projectorg[55] US Geological Survey 2015 httpsglovisusgsgov[56] G Wang D Yan D Zhang and S Liu ldquoTrend analysis of

variation in extreme precipitation and temperature in HaiheRiver Basin from 1961-2010rdquo South to NorthWater Transfers andWater Science and Technology vol 12 pp 1ndash6 2014

[57] L Xu Y GuoM Liu et al ldquoAnalysis of Temperature Trends andChange Points in the Haihe River Basin Over the Last 50 YearsrdquoResources Science vol 33 no 5 pp 995ndash1001 2011 (Chinese)

[58] K Herweg and E Ludi ldquoThe performance of selected soil andwater conservation measuresmdashcase studies from Ethiopia andEritreardquo Catena vol 36 no 1-2 pp 99ndash114 1999

[59] C Zhang The study on climate impact of ENSO since [Masterthesis] Shaanxi Normal University 1950

[60] Y Liu W Ju J Chen et al ldquoSpatial and temporal variations offorest LAI in China during 2000-2010rdquoChinese Science Bulletinvol 57 no 22 pp 2846ndash2856 2012

Advances in Meteorology 9

[7] M M Mekonnen and A Y Hoekstra ldquoFour billion peoplefacing severe water scarcityrdquo Science advances vol 2 no 2 pe1500323 2016

[8] S Bergstrom B Carlsson M Gardelin G Lindstrom APettersson and M Rummukainen ldquoClimate change impactson runoff in Sweden assessments by global climate modelsdynamical down-scaling and hydrological modellingrdquo ClimateResearch vol 16 pp 101ndash112 2001

[9] M C Ramos and J A Martınez-Casasnovas ldquoClimate changeinfluence on runoff and soil losses in a rainfed basin withMediterranean climaterdquo Natural Hazards vol 78 no 2 pp1065ndash1089 2015

[10] Q Zhang and P Shi ldquoHydrological response to large-scaleclimate variability across the Pearl River basin China Spa-tiotemporal patterns and sensitivityrdquo Global and PlanetaryChange vol 149 pp 1ndash13 2017

[11] NW Arnell ldquoClimate change scenarios from a regional climatemodel Estimating change in runoff in southern Africardquo Journalof Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 108 no D16 2003

[12] L P Koedyk and D G Kingston ldquoPotential evapotranspirationmethod influence on climate change impacts on river flow Amid-latitude case studyrdquo Hydrology Research vol 47 no 5 pp951ndash963 2016

[13] A E Coles B G McConkey and J J McDonnell ldquoClimatechange impacts on hillslope runoff on the northern GreatPlains 1962ndash2013rdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 550 pp 538ndash5482017

[14] J K Loslashrup J C Refsgaard and D Mazvimavi ldquoAssessing theeffect of land use change on catchment runoff by combined useof statistical tests and hydrological modelling case studies fromZimbabwerdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 205 no 3-4 pp 147ndash1631998

[15] N Sajikumar and R S Remya ldquoImpact of land cover and landuse change on runoff characteristicsrdquo Journal of EnvironmentalManagement vol 161 pp 460ndash468 2015

[16] J Chen L Theller M W Gitau B A Engel and J M HarborldquoUrbanization impacts on surface runoff of the contiguousUnited Statesrdquo Journal of Environmental Management vol 187pp 470ndash481 2017

[17] D Niehoff U Fritsch and A Bronstert ldquoLand-use impactson storm-runoff generation Scenarios of land-use change andsimulation of hydrological response in a meso-scale catchmentin SW-Germanyrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 267 no 1-2 pp 80ndash93 2002

[18] N Algeet-Abarquero M Marchamalo J Bonatti J Fernandez-Moya and R Moussa ldquoImplications of land use change onrunoff generation at the plot scale in the humid tropics of CostaRicardquo Catena vol 135 pp 263ndash270 2015

[19] F Wang R Hessel X Mu et al ldquoDistinguishing the impactsof human activities and climate variability on runoff andsediment load change based on paired periods with similarweather conditions A case in the Yan River Chinardquo Journal ofHydrology vol 527 pp 884ndash893 2015

[20] Q Yang H Tian M A M Friedrichs M Liu X Li and JYang ldquoHydrological responses to climate and land-use changesalong the north american east coast A 110-Year historical recon-structionrdquo JAWRA Journal of the American Water ResourcesAssociation vol 51 no 1 pp 47ndash67 2015

[21] D Kong C Miao J Wu and Q Duan ldquoImpact assessment ofclimate change and human activities on net runoff in the YellowRiver Basin from 1951 to 2012rdquo Ecological Engineering vol 91pp 566ndash573 2016

[22] Y Jiang ldquoChinarsquos water scarcityrdquo Journal of Environmental Man-agement vol 90 no 11 pp 3185ndash3196 2009

[23] C Peng and J Zhang ldquoAddressing urbanwater resource scarcityin China from water resource planning experiences of Sing-aporerdquo Advanced Materials Research vol 433-440 pp 1213ndash1218 2012

[24] H Zheng Y Li B E Robinson et al ldquoUsing ecosystem servicetrade-offs to inform water conservation policies and manage-ment practicesrdquo Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment vol14 no 10 pp 527ndash532 2016

[25] C Liu and J Xia ldquoWater problems and hydrological research inthe Yellow River and the Huai and Hai River basins of ChinardquoHydrological Processes vol 18 no 12 pp 2197ndash2210 2004

[26] J Xia H Feng C Zhan and G Niu ldquoDetermination of areasonable percentage for ecological water-use in the HaiheRiver Basin Chinardquo Pedosphere vol 16 no 1 pp 33ndash42 2006

[27] ldquoHaihe River Water Conservancy Commission MWRrdquo HaiheRiver Basin Water Resources Bulletin 2010

[28] J-Y Zhang S-L Zhang J-XWang and Y Li ldquoStudy on runofftrends of the six larger basins in China over the past 50 yearsrdquoAdvances in Water Science vol 18 no 2 pp 230ndash234 2007

[29] Z J Yao Y P Guan and Y C Gao ldquoAnalysis of distributionregulation of annual runoff and affection of annual runoff byhuman activity in the Chaobaihe Riverrdquo Progress in Geographyvol 22 pp 599ndash606 2003 (Chinese)

[30] J Xia L Zhang C Liu and J Yu ldquoTowards better water securityinNorth ChinardquoWater ResourcesManagement vol 21 no 1 pp233ndash247 2007

[31] S Sun S Huang X Sun and W Wen ldquoPhosphorus fractionsand its release in the sediments of Haihe River Chinardquo Journalof Environmental Sciences vol 21 no 3 pp 291ndash295 2009

[32] H Huang and J Xia ldquoImpacts of Water Pollution and Shortageon the Economic Development of the Haihe River BasinrdquoResources Science vol 28 no 2 p 2 2008 (Chinese)

[33] H Ren W Shen H Lu X Wen and S Jian ldquoDegradedecosystems in China status causes and restoration effortsrdquoLandscape Ecological Engineering vol 3 pp 1ndash13 2007

[34] T Yang J Liu and Q Chen ldquoAssessment of plain riverecosystem function based on improved gray system model andanalytic hierarchy process for the Fuyang River Haihe RiverBasin Chinardquo Ecological Modelling vol 268 pp 37ndash47 2013

[35] Y H Yang and F Tian ldquoAbrupt change of runoff and its majordriving factors in Haihe River Catchment Chinardquo Journal ofHydrology vol 374 no 3-4 pp 373ndash383 2009

[36] J D Hughes K C Petrone and R P Silberstein ldquoDroughtgroundwater storage and stream flow decline in southwesternAustraliardquoGeophysical Research Letters vol 39 no 3 Article IDL03408 2012

[37] Z Bao J Zhang G Wang et al ldquoAttribution for decreasingstreamflow of the Haihe River basin Northern China climatevariability or human activitiesrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 460-461 pp 117ndash129 2012

[38] H Lei D Yang andM Huang ldquoImpacts of climate change andvegetation dynamics on runoff in themountainous region of theHaihe River basin in the past five decadesrdquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 511 pp 786ndash799 2014

[39] H Wang Evolution of watershed ecological hydrology in Haihebasin mountainous area [Doctoral thesis] Beijing ForestryUniversity 2015

[40] M Chen Y Xie and Y Feng ldquoInfluence of Human Activity onConsistency of Runoff Series in Haihe River Basinrdquo Journal ofChina Hydrology vol 27 no 3 pp 57ndash59 2007

10 Advances in Meteorology

[41] F Yuan Z-H Xie L-L Ren and Q Huang ldquoHydrologicalvariation in Haihe River Basin due to climate changerdquo Journalof Hydraulic Engineering vol 36 no 3 pp 274ndash279 2005

[42] Y Guo and Y Shen ldquoQuantifying water and energy budgets andthe impacts of climatic and human factors in the Haihe RiverBasin China 2 Trends and implications to water resourcesrdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 527 pp 251ndash261 2015

[43] H Wang L Chen and X Yu ldquoDistinguishing human andclimate influences on streamflow changes in Luan River basinin Chinardquo Catena vol 136 pp 182ndash188 2016

[44] L Zhao J Xia L Sobkowiak andZ Li ldquoClimatic characteristicsof reference evapotranspiration in the hai river basin and theirattributionrdquo Water (Switzerland) vol 6 no 6 pp 1482ndash14992014

[45] Y Xiong The study of water resources carrying capacity andits ecosystem services values in Hahe Basin [Master thesis]Tsinghua University 2004

[46] ldquoNBS National Bureau of Statistics of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChin 2017rdquo httpwwwstatsgovcntjsjtjgbndtjgb

[47] MWR Ministry of Water Resources of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChina China water resources bulletin 2015 2015

[48] SC State Council of the Peoplersquos Republic of China The Outlineof the Plan for Coordinated Development for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region 2015

[49] F Yang Assessment on the suitability of geographical zones fea-ture for six forestry programs in China [Master thesis] LanzhouJiaotong 2015

[50] H Fang S Liang and A Kuusk ldquoRetrieving leaf area indexusing a genetic algorithm with a canopy radiative transfermodelrdquo Remote Sensing of Environment vol 85 no 3 pp 257ndash270 2003

[51] J W Johnson ldquoA heuristic method for estimating the relativeweight of predictor variables in multiple regressionrdquoMultivari-ate Behavioral Research vol 35 no 1 pp 1ndash19 2000

[52] I R Kabacoff R in action-Data analysis and graphics with RManning Publications Co 2011

[53] IBM SPSS Statistics Version 21 2012 httpswwwibmcomana-lyticsusentechnologyspss

[54] R Studio Version 098 2014 httpswwwr-projectorg[55] US Geological Survey 2015 httpsglovisusgsgov[56] G Wang D Yan D Zhang and S Liu ldquoTrend analysis of

variation in extreme precipitation and temperature in HaiheRiver Basin from 1961-2010rdquo South to NorthWater Transfers andWater Science and Technology vol 12 pp 1ndash6 2014

[57] L Xu Y GuoM Liu et al ldquoAnalysis of Temperature Trends andChange Points in the Haihe River Basin Over the Last 50 YearsrdquoResources Science vol 33 no 5 pp 995ndash1001 2011 (Chinese)

[58] K Herweg and E Ludi ldquoThe performance of selected soil andwater conservation measuresmdashcase studies from Ethiopia andEritreardquo Catena vol 36 no 1-2 pp 99ndash114 1999

[59] C Zhang The study on climate impact of ENSO since [Masterthesis] Shaanxi Normal University 1950

[60] Y Liu W Ju J Chen et al ldquoSpatial and temporal variations offorest LAI in China during 2000-2010rdquoChinese Science Bulletinvol 57 no 22 pp 2846ndash2856 2012

10 Advances in Meteorology

[41] F Yuan Z-H Xie L-L Ren and Q Huang ldquoHydrologicalvariation in Haihe River Basin due to climate changerdquo Journalof Hydraulic Engineering vol 36 no 3 pp 274ndash279 2005

[42] Y Guo and Y Shen ldquoQuantifying water and energy budgets andthe impacts of climatic and human factors in the Haihe RiverBasin China 2 Trends and implications to water resourcesrdquoJournal of Hydrology vol 527 pp 251ndash261 2015

[43] H Wang L Chen and X Yu ldquoDistinguishing human andclimate influences on streamflow changes in Luan River basinin Chinardquo Catena vol 136 pp 182ndash188 2016

[44] L Zhao J Xia L Sobkowiak andZ Li ldquoClimatic characteristicsof reference evapotranspiration in the hai river basin and theirattributionrdquo Water (Switzerland) vol 6 no 6 pp 1482ndash14992014

[45] Y Xiong The study of water resources carrying capacity andits ecosystem services values in Hahe Basin [Master thesis]Tsinghua University 2004

[46] ldquoNBS National Bureau of Statistics of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChin 2017rdquo httpwwwstatsgovcntjsjtjgbndtjgb

[47] MWR Ministry of Water Resources of the Peoplersquos Republic ofChina China water resources bulletin 2015 2015

[48] SC State Council of the Peoplersquos Republic of China The Outlineof the Plan for Coordinated Development for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region 2015

[49] F Yang Assessment on the suitability of geographical zones fea-ture for six forestry programs in China [Master thesis] LanzhouJiaotong 2015

[50] H Fang S Liang and A Kuusk ldquoRetrieving leaf area indexusing a genetic algorithm with a canopy radiative transfermodelrdquo Remote Sensing of Environment vol 85 no 3 pp 257ndash270 2003

[51] J W Johnson ldquoA heuristic method for estimating the relativeweight of predictor variables in multiple regressionrdquoMultivari-ate Behavioral Research vol 35 no 1 pp 1ndash19 2000

[52] I R Kabacoff R in action-Data analysis and graphics with RManning Publications Co 2011

[53] IBM SPSS Statistics Version 21 2012 httpswwwibmcomana-lyticsusentechnologyspss

[54] R Studio Version 098 2014 httpswwwr-projectorg[55] US Geological Survey 2015 httpsglovisusgsgov[56] G Wang D Yan D Zhang and S Liu ldquoTrend analysis of

variation in extreme precipitation and temperature in HaiheRiver Basin from 1961-2010rdquo South to NorthWater Transfers andWater Science and Technology vol 12 pp 1ndash6 2014

[57] L Xu Y GuoM Liu et al ldquoAnalysis of Temperature Trends andChange Points in the Haihe River Basin Over the Last 50 YearsrdquoResources Science vol 33 no 5 pp 995ndash1001 2011 (Chinese)

[58] K Herweg and E Ludi ldquoThe performance of selected soil andwater conservation measuresmdashcase studies from Ethiopia andEritreardquo Catena vol 36 no 1-2 pp 99ndash114 1999

[59] C Zhang The study on climate impact of ENSO since [Masterthesis] Shaanxi Normal University 1950

[60] Y Liu W Ju J Chen et al ldquoSpatial and temporal variations offorest LAI in China during 2000-2010rdquoChinese Science Bulletinvol 57 no 22 pp 2846ndash2856 2012

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