Dunning-Kruger Effect: Why People Think
They're Smart Even When They're Not
Dunning-Kruger Effect states that less
competent people are more confident. To guard
ourselves against this mental bias, we need to
embrace the unknown and never stop learning.
Exodus 3:11
But Moses said to God, “Who am I, that I
should go to Pharaoh and bring the Israelites
out of Egypt?”
Exodus 4:1
Moses answered, “What if they do not believe
me or listen to me and say, ‘The LORD did not
appear to you’?”
Exodus 4:10
Moses said to the LORD, “O Lord, I have never
been eloquent, neither in the past nor since
you have spoken to your servant. I am slow of
speech and tongue.”
Exodus 4:13
But Moses said, “O Lord, please send
someone else to do it.”
WHEN MOSES STEPPED
TOWARD THE SEA,
THE PEOPLE FOLLOWED.
Exodus 14:1-2
Then the LORD said to Moses, 2“Tell the
Israelites to turn back and encamp near Pi
Hahiroth, between Migdol and the sea. They
are to encamp by the sea, directly opposite
Baal Zephon.
“On one side was the Red Sea, on the
other the wilderness, and in front an
insuperable barrier of mountains. There
was no natural egress from that cul-de-
sac, except to turn back to Egypt.”
F.B. Meyer, “Devotional Commentary on Exodus” pg. 161
Exodus 14:3-4 Pharaoh will think, ‘The Israelites are wandering around the land in confusion, hemmed in by the desert.’ And I will harden Pharaoh’s heart, and he will pursue them.
Exodus 14:5
When the king of Egypt was told that the
people had fled, Pharaoh and his officials
changed their minds about them and said,
“What have we done? We have let the
Israelites go and have lost their services!”
Exodus 14:7-8
He took six hundred of the best chariots, along
with all the other chariots of Egypt, with
officers over all of them. 8The LORD hardened
the heart of Pharaoh king of Egypt, so that he
pursued the Israelites, who were marching out
boldly.
TWO MARKERS IN EVERY LEADER
TWO MARKERS IN EVERY LEADER
He [or she] knows where he’s going.
TWO MARKERS IN EVERY LEADER
He [or she] knows where he’s going.
She [or he] is able to persuade others to
come along for the ride.
Exodus 14:10
As Pharaoh approached, the Israelites looked
up, and there were the Egyptians, marching
after them. They were terrified and cried out to
the LORD.
Exodus 14:11-12
They said to Moses, “Was it because there were
no graves in Egypt that you brought us to the
desert to die? What have you done to us by
bringing us out of Egypt? 12Didn’t we say to you in
Egypt, ‘Leave us alone; let us serve the
Egyptians’? It would have been better for us to
serve the Egyptians than to die in the desert!”
MOSES NEEDED TO LEARN THAT
PEOPLE ARE PEOPLE.
MOSES NEEDED TO LEARN THAT PEOPLE
ARE PEOPLE.
SO I MIGHT AS WELL LOVE THE PEOPLE
GOD GAVE ME TO LEAD—
AND STOP WISHING FOR THE PEOPLE
I’D RATHER LEAD.
Exodus 4:29-31
Moses and Aaron brought together all the elders
of the Israelites, 30and Aaron told them everything
the LORD had said to Moses. He also performed
the signs before the people, 31and they believed.
And when they heard that the LORD was
concerned about them and had seen their misery,
they bowed down and worshiped.
LOVE THE PEOPLE GOD GAVE YOU.
EVERYBODY LOVES YOU—
UNTIL YOU LEAD.
Exodus 14:13-14
Moses answered the people, “Do not be afraid.
Stand firm and you will see the deliverance the
LORD will bring you today. The Egyptians you
see today you will never see again. 14The LORD
will fight for you; you need only to be still.”
• LIGHTEN UP
• BUCKLE UP
• GIVE IT UP
• SHUT UP
• LIGHTEN UP [Do not be afraid.]
• LIGHTEN UP [Do not be afraid.]
• BUCKLE UP [Stand firm.]
• LIGHTEN UP [Do not be afraid.]
• BUCKLE UP [Stand firm.]
• GIVE IT UP [Let the Lord do the fighting.]
• LIGHTEN UP [Do not be afraid.]
• BUCKLE UP [Stand firm.]
• GIVE IT UP [Let the Lord do the fighting.]
• SHUT UP [Be still.]
MOSES NEEDED TO LEARN THAT FAILURE
IS ESSENTIAL FOR PROGRESS.
Exodus 14:13-14
Moses answered the people, “Do not be afraid.
Stand firm and you will see the deliverance the
LORD will bring you today. The Egyptians you
see today you will never see again. 14The LORD
will fight for you; you need only to be still.”
Exodus 14:15
Then the LORD said to Moses, “Why are you
crying out to me? Tell the Israelites to move on.
MOSES NEEDED TO LEARN
HOW TO FIND A COURAGE HE DIDN’T
EVEN KNOW HE HAD.
Exodus 14:15
Then the LORD said to Moses, “Why are you
crying out to me? Tell the Israelites to move on.
Exodus 14:16
Raise your staff and stretch out your hand over
the sea to divide the water so that the
Israelites can go through the sea on dry
ground.
Exodus 14:21-22
Then Moses stretched out his hand over the
sea, and all that night the LORD drove the sea
back with a strong east wind and turned it into
dry land. The waters were divided, 22and the
Israelites went through the sea on dry ground,
with a wall of water on their right and on their
left.
Exodus 14:17
I will harden the hearts of the Egyptians so
that they will go in after them. And I will gain
glory through Pharaoh and all his army,
through his chariots and his horsemen.
Exodus 14:19-20
Then the angel of God, who had been traveling in
front of Israel’s army, withdrew and went behind
them. The pillar of cloud also moved from in front
and stood behind them, 20coming between the
armies of Egypt and Israel. Throughout the night
the cloud brought darkness to the one side and
light to the other side; so neither went near the
other all night long.
Exodus 14:26
Then the LORD said to Moses, “Stretch out
your hand over the sea so that the waters may
flow back over the Egyptians and their chariots
and horsemen.”
Exodus 14:28-29
The water flowed back and covered the
chariots and horsemen—the entire army of
Pharaoh that had followed the Israelites into
the sea. Not one of them survived. 29But the
Israelites went through the sea on dry ground,
with a wall of water on their right and on their
left.
Exodus 14:31
And when the Israelites saw the great power
the LORD displayed against the Egyptians, the
people feared the LORD and put their trust in
him and in Moses his servant.
“Professional Christians, that is church
leaders, preachers and pastors, at some
point all become terribly aware that we
are walking contradictions.
We’re licensed frauds.”
Richard Holloway, Glittering Images and Ultimate Prizes
Exodus 14:15
Then the LORD said to Moses, “Why are you
crying out to me? Tell the Israelites to move on.
Exodus 15:1
Then Moses and the Israelites sang this song
to the LORD:
“I will sing to the LORD,
for he is highly exalted.
The horse and its rider
he has hurled into the sea.
MOSES NEEDED TO LEARN THAT
THOUGH THERE IS A GOD,
HE WASN’T HIM!
Two Reasons Most Pastors are Psychotic
Two Reasons Most Pastors are Psychotic 1. We preach truth better than we live truth.
Two Reasons Most Pastors are Psychotic 1. We preach truth better than we live truth.
2. We find it easier to be transparent when
we’re talking to 100s of people than if
we’re doing it 1:1.
It felt like I had just lost my lifeline…again.
“I’ve learned to kiss the wave that casts me
against the Rock of Ages.”
-Charles Spurgeon