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DUG Bakken and Niobrara North Dakota Pipeline Authority
Justin J. Kringstad May 30, 2013 – Denver, CO
March 8, 2013 1
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May 27, 2013 – 186 Drilling Rigs
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ND Drilling Stats
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Forecasted Drilling Rigs
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Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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Forecasted New Wells
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Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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North Dakota Pipeline Miles
2,353 miles of new pipe in 2011
Roughly Distance from Seattle to Washington DC
2012 Data Available Q3 2013
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Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Crude Oil
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Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Crude Oil
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Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
Today
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Forecasted Remaining Reserves (ND Only) Assuming 11 Billion Barrels Recoverable
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Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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North Dakota Type Curves*
*Typical Type Curve Based on the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study
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Crude Oil
Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the
Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the
Williston Basin
*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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210,000 BOPD
68,000 BOPD
160,000 BOPD
145,000 BOPD
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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Oil Loading Rail Facilities
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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes
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March 2013
Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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*Some data based on estimates or assumptions
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US Williston Basin Oil Transport*
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Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
Today
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Crude Oil Gathering
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Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the
Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the
Williston Basin
*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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Red – Trucked Blue – Pipeline
Sep 2012 Estimates – Some data incomplete or unavailable
All ND Production
ND Crude Oil Gathering
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Red – Trucked Blue – Pipeline
Sep 2012 Estimates – Some data incomplete or unavailable
All ND Production
ND Crude Oil Gathering
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Crude Oil
Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions (EPRINC & Others)
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ND Oil Pricing: ND-WTI Differential
Source: EIA DATA
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US Shale Plays and Refineries
Source: EIA Data
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Hydrogen Sulfide
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S
H H
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Natural Gas
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1. Economics Must Work
2. Understanding Production Potential
3. New Gas Gathering Pipelines
4. Enhancing Existing Gathering Pipelines
5. Adequate Gas Processing Capacity
6. Adequate Interstate Pipeline Capacity
7. Flaring Alternatives (Short & Long Term)
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Keys to Reducing Flaring
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Raw Natural Gas
(1500+ BTU) Processing Plant
Consumer Quality Dry Natural Gas
Methane
($3.49 MMBTU)
NGL’S (8-12 gpm)
Y-Grade or Fractionated
Ethane
41.64%
Propane
28.33%
Butane
16.53%
Natural Gasoline
13.51%
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*Using NGL breakdown from the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study
Rich Natural Gas
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North Dakota Type Curves*
*Typical Type Curve Based on the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study
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High Reservoir Pressure
Low Reservoir Pressure
Bubble Point
Pressure
Horizontal Well Completed in Target Reservoir
Gas – Oil Ratio (GOR) Increasing Over Time
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Youngest - Original Reservoir Pressure
Oldest – Entire Reservoir Below Bubble Point
Gas – Oil Ratio (GOR) Increasing Over Time
High Reservoir Pressure
Low Reservoir Pressure
Bubble Point
Pressure
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Production curve for the Bakken and Three Forks, US Williston Basin. Source: BENTEK Energy July 2012 Report
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Only horizontal wells shown on map
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1980’s-90’s Bakken Development
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GOR 1,000 CUFT/BBL
GOR 3,000 CUFT/BBL
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Forecasting Williston Basin Gas Production
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
Today
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Simple Terms Red – Challenges on existing infrastructure Blue – Lack of pipelines
GREEN – % of gas captured and sold Red – % flared from wells with at least one mcf sold. Blue – % flared from zero sales wells
March 2013 Data – Non-Confidential Wells Statewide
Solving the Flaring Challenge
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Capturing the 17% Faster Well Connections
First Time Gas Sales Per Month
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ND Gas Gathering Statistics
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Older, lower pressure wells connected to plant
New, high pressure well causes older wells to flare
Capturing the 11% Additional Compression
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Capturing the 11% Looping Existing Pipelines
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NGL buildup in gathering pipelines reduces area for gas to flow
Capturing the 11% Frequent Pigging
More of an issue in winter months due to lower ground temperature causing
more liquids to drop out
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5 New or Expanding Gas Plants 2013-2015
(See Website for Details)
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Natural Gas Processing & Transmission
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ND Gas Plant Capacity
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Natural Gas Study
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Source: BENTEK Energy July 2012 Report
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Flaring Alternatives
November 5, 2012 – EERC Associated Gas Use Study December 18, 2012 – Natural Gas Flaring Alternatives (Company Presentations) February 27, 2013 – EERC Use of Associated Gas to Power Drilling Rigs
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Raw Natural Gas
(1500+ BTU) Processing Plant
Consumer Quality Dry Natural Gas
Methane
($3.49 MMBTU)
NGL’S (8-12 gpm)
Y-Grade or Fractionated
Ethane
41.64%
Propane
28.33%
Butane
16.53%
Natural Gasoline
13.51%
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*Using NGL breakdown from the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study
Rich Natural Gas
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ND NGL Production, BPD
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Assumptions
• No Flaring
• 8 Gal/MCF
• All liquids extracted
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ND NGL Production Potential
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ND NGL Production & Pipelines
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Produced Water Infrastructure
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Red – Producer Owned SWD
Green – Independent SWD
Blue Circle – SWD Volume
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Justin J. Kringstad, Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405 Bismarck, ND 58505-0840
Phone: (701)220-6227
Fax: (701)328-2820 E-mail: [email protected]
Websites:
www.pipeline.nd.gov www.northdakotapipelines.com
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Contact Information
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