1
This note presents a preliminary estimate of Greek GDP for the third quarter of this year based
on a range of monthly data released up to October 17 2014 Our Nowcasting model produces
high frequency real-time estimates of Greecersquos gross domestic product by applying an
econometric methodology that can properly handle data reporting lags revisions and other
important aspects characterizing the daily flow of macroeconomic information Our mid-point
estimate of real output growth in Q3 is for a switch into a positive territory to c 10 ΥοΥ from
-03YoY in Q2 and -11YoY in the first quarter of 2014 As we explain in the present
document the flow of macro data pertaining to Q3 2014 will continue in the following couple of
months Moreover Greecersquos stats agency (ELSTAT) is due to release on November 14 new
quarterly GDP series following the recent publication of revised annual data for national
accounts pertaining to the period 1995-2013 These revisions integrate new and updated data
from various sources They also reflect the transposition of Greek data into the European
System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA2010) that has replaced ESA95 Taking into
account the aforementioned developments our GDP estimate for Q3 2014 should be considered
as strictly preliminary and subject to revisions We will update our analysis following the
publication of the revised quarterly series but for the time being we maintain our earlier
forecast of slightly positive GDP growth for the full year On a less constructive note domestic
economic activity in the current (4th) quarter is likely to face a number of headwinds including a
worsening stream of macroeconomic data from the euro area and prevailing domestic political
uncertainty ahead of the presidential election
httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsGDP20Nowcasting20-20Greece20-
20Macro20Monitor20(1820November202013)pdf
Dr Platon Monokroussos Chief Market Economist
Deputy General Manager pmonokrousoseurobankgr
2
2 The outcome of all these will be the compilation of continuous (ie without breaks) time series for 1995-2013 under ESA2010 which will effectively address the earlier lack of a long enough data history including for the years before
3
ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010
Household consumption 47 31 -19 -14 -64 -73 -79 -109 -93 -81 -60 -20
NPISH consumption -146 -29 179 178 06 05 07 -07 -93 08 -60 -01
General Gvnt consumption -26 -21 49 16 -87 -43 -52 -66 -69 -50 -41 -65
Gross fixed capital formation -143 -66 -137 -132 -150 -209 -196 -168 -192 -287 -128 -46
Exports of goods and services 17 35 -194 -185 52 46 03 00 -17 12 18 21
Imports of goods and services 09 26 -202 -196 -62 -55 -73 -90 -138 -91 -53 -16
Real GDP -02 -04 -31 -44 -49 -54 -71 -89 -70 -66 -39 -33
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4
-262
-290-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ESA 2010 ESA 95
5
2010 2010
Current prices in million euro ESA95 ESA2010 Change
PRODUCTION APPROACH 222151 226210 4058 18
Output of goods and services (at basic prices) 351385 356749 5364 15
Intermediate consumption (at purchasers prices) 156163 157104 941 06
Gross value added (at basic prices) 195222 199645 4424 23
Taxes on products 27368 26912 (456) -17
Subsidies on products 438 348 (90) -206
EXPENDITURE APPROACH 222151 226210 4058 18
Final consumption expenditure of Households 159440 154146 -5294 -33
Final consumption expenditure of NPISH 3614 4294 680 188
Final consumption expenditure of General Government 40749 48900 8151 200
Final consumption expenditure (Total) 203803 207340 3537 17
Gross fixed capital formation 39185 39056 -129 -03
Changes in inventories -230 -786 -556 -
Exports of goods and services 49414 49984 570 12
Imports of goods and services 70020 69384 -636 -09
INCOME APPROACH 222151 226209 4058 18
Compensation of employees 80493 81035 542 07
Gross operating surplus mixed income 117071 120553 3482 30
Taxes on production and imports 27926 27891 -35 -01
Subsidies 3339 3270 -69 -21
Difference
6
057 055
007 009
037
-043
061
-06
-04
-02
00
02
04
06
08
RampD Militaryequipment
Goods sentabroad
FISIM New orimproved
data
Newdwellings
Other
-21
9
-25
9
-57
7
-58
-35
8
-21
1
-25
6
-64
1
-25
-31
2
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Pri
vate
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Pu
blic
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Gro
ss c
apit
alfo
rmat
ion
Exp
ort
s g
amp s
Imp
ort
s g
amp s
ESA95 ESA 2010
7
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Saving rate of households amp NPISH ( of gross disposable income)
Gross disposable income of households amp NPISH (YoY )
3 Greek GDP NOWcasting model update Eurobank Global Markets Research 3 July 2014 link httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsGREEC_MACRO_FOCUS_July_3_2014_GDP_NOWCASTINGpdf) 4 H1 2014 real consumption expenditure of households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) was lower by ca 28 relative to its levels in the first half of 2008
8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
14
Q1
Metal products andmachinery
Transport equipment
Other
Construction(dwellings + other)
5 See ldquoExplaining and forecasting residential house prices in Greece- A technical noterdquo Greece Macro Monitor Eurobank Global Martkets Research March 10 2014 httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsExplaining_and_forecasting_residential_houseprices_in_Greece_Mar10_2014pdf 6 In 2013 next exports provided a 2ppts positive contribution to the annual change in real GDP
9
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
202
00
7 Q
1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10 Q
1
20
10 Q
3
20
11 Q
1
20
11 Q
3
20
12 Q
1
20
12 Q
3
20
13 Q
1
20
13 Q
3
20
14 Q
1
Goods Services
10
2
2 The outcome of all these will be the compilation of continuous (ie without breaks) time series for 1995-2013 under ESA2010 which will effectively address the earlier lack of a long enough data history including for the years before
3
ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010
Household consumption 47 31 -19 -14 -64 -73 -79 -109 -93 -81 -60 -20
NPISH consumption -146 -29 179 178 06 05 07 -07 -93 08 -60 -01
General Gvnt consumption -26 -21 49 16 -87 -43 -52 -66 -69 -50 -41 -65
Gross fixed capital formation -143 -66 -137 -132 -150 -209 -196 -168 -192 -287 -128 -46
Exports of goods and services 17 35 -194 -185 52 46 03 00 -17 12 18 21
Imports of goods and services 09 26 -202 -196 -62 -55 -73 -90 -138 -91 -53 -16
Real GDP -02 -04 -31 -44 -49 -54 -71 -89 -70 -66 -39 -33
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4
-262
-290-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ESA 2010 ESA 95
5
2010 2010
Current prices in million euro ESA95 ESA2010 Change
PRODUCTION APPROACH 222151 226210 4058 18
Output of goods and services (at basic prices) 351385 356749 5364 15
Intermediate consumption (at purchasers prices) 156163 157104 941 06
Gross value added (at basic prices) 195222 199645 4424 23
Taxes on products 27368 26912 (456) -17
Subsidies on products 438 348 (90) -206
EXPENDITURE APPROACH 222151 226210 4058 18
Final consumption expenditure of Households 159440 154146 -5294 -33
Final consumption expenditure of NPISH 3614 4294 680 188
Final consumption expenditure of General Government 40749 48900 8151 200
Final consumption expenditure (Total) 203803 207340 3537 17
Gross fixed capital formation 39185 39056 -129 -03
Changes in inventories -230 -786 -556 -
Exports of goods and services 49414 49984 570 12
Imports of goods and services 70020 69384 -636 -09
INCOME APPROACH 222151 226209 4058 18
Compensation of employees 80493 81035 542 07
Gross operating surplus mixed income 117071 120553 3482 30
Taxes on production and imports 27926 27891 -35 -01
Subsidies 3339 3270 -69 -21
Difference
6
057 055
007 009
037
-043
061
-06
-04
-02
00
02
04
06
08
RampD Militaryequipment
Goods sentabroad
FISIM New orimproved
data
Newdwellings
Other
-21
9
-25
9
-57
7
-58
-35
8
-21
1
-25
6
-64
1
-25
-31
2
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Pri
vate
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Pu
blic
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Gro
ss c
apit
alfo
rmat
ion
Exp
ort
s g
amp s
Imp
ort
s g
amp s
ESA95 ESA 2010
7
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Saving rate of households amp NPISH ( of gross disposable income)
Gross disposable income of households amp NPISH (YoY )
3 Greek GDP NOWcasting model update Eurobank Global Markets Research 3 July 2014 link httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsGREEC_MACRO_FOCUS_July_3_2014_GDP_NOWCASTINGpdf) 4 H1 2014 real consumption expenditure of households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) was lower by ca 28 relative to its levels in the first half of 2008
8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
14
Q1
Metal products andmachinery
Transport equipment
Other
Construction(dwellings + other)
5 See ldquoExplaining and forecasting residential house prices in Greece- A technical noterdquo Greece Macro Monitor Eurobank Global Martkets Research March 10 2014 httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsExplaining_and_forecasting_residential_houseprices_in_Greece_Mar10_2014pdf 6 In 2013 next exports provided a 2ppts positive contribution to the annual change in real GDP
9
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
202
00
7 Q
1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10 Q
1
20
10 Q
3
20
11 Q
1
20
11 Q
3
20
12 Q
1
20
12 Q
3
20
13 Q
1
20
13 Q
3
20
14 Q
1
Goods Services
10
3
ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010 ESA95 ESA2010
Household consumption 47 31 -19 -14 -64 -73 -79 -109 -93 -81 -60 -20
NPISH consumption -146 -29 179 178 06 05 07 -07 -93 08 -60 -01
General Gvnt consumption -26 -21 49 16 -87 -43 -52 -66 -69 -50 -41 -65
Gross fixed capital formation -143 -66 -137 -132 -150 -209 -196 -168 -192 -287 -128 -46
Exports of goods and services 17 35 -194 -185 52 46 03 00 -17 12 18 21
Imports of goods and services 09 26 -202 -196 -62 -55 -73 -90 -138 -91 -53 -16
Real GDP -02 -04 -31 -44 -49 -54 -71 -89 -70 -66 -39 -33
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4
-262
-290-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ESA 2010 ESA 95
5
2010 2010
Current prices in million euro ESA95 ESA2010 Change
PRODUCTION APPROACH 222151 226210 4058 18
Output of goods and services (at basic prices) 351385 356749 5364 15
Intermediate consumption (at purchasers prices) 156163 157104 941 06
Gross value added (at basic prices) 195222 199645 4424 23
Taxes on products 27368 26912 (456) -17
Subsidies on products 438 348 (90) -206
EXPENDITURE APPROACH 222151 226210 4058 18
Final consumption expenditure of Households 159440 154146 -5294 -33
Final consumption expenditure of NPISH 3614 4294 680 188
Final consumption expenditure of General Government 40749 48900 8151 200
Final consumption expenditure (Total) 203803 207340 3537 17
Gross fixed capital formation 39185 39056 -129 -03
Changes in inventories -230 -786 -556 -
Exports of goods and services 49414 49984 570 12
Imports of goods and services 70020 69384 -636 -09
INCOME APPROACH 222151 226209 4058 18
Compensation of employees 80493 81035 542 07
Gross operating surplus mixed income 117071 120553 3482 30
Taxes on production and imports 27926 27891 -35 -01
Subsidies 3339 3270 -69 -21
Difference
6
057 055
007 009
037
-043
061
-06
-04
-02
00
02
04
06
08
RampD Militaryequipment
Goods sentabroad
FISIM New orimproved
data
Newdwellings
Other
-21
9
-25
9
-57
7
-58
-35
8
-21
1
-25
6
-64
1
-25
-31
2
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Pri
vate
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Pu
blic
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Gro
ss c
apit
alfo
rmat
ion
Exp
ort
s g
amp s
Imp
ort
s g
amp s
ESA95 ESA 2010
7
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Saving rate of households amp NPISH ( of gross disposable income)
Gross disposable income of households amp NPISH (YoY )
3 Greek GDP NOWcasting model update Eurobank Global Markets Research 3 July 2014 link httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsGREEC_MACRO_FOCUS_July_3_2014_GDP_NOWCASTINGpdf) 4 H1 2014 real consumption expenditure of households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) was lower by ca 28 relative to its levels in the first half of 2008
8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
14
Q1
Metal products andmachinery
Transport equipment
Other
Construction(dwellings + other)
5 See ldquoExplaining and forecasting residential house prices in Greece- A technical noterdquo Greece Macro Monitor Eurobank Global Martkets Research March 10 2014 httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsExplaining_and_forecasting_residential_houseprices_in_Greece_Mar10_2014pdf 6 In 2013 next exports provided a 2ppts positive contribution to the annual change in real GDP
9
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
202
00
7 Q
1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10 Q
1
20
10 Q
3
20
11 Q
1
20
11 Q
3
20
12 Q
1
20
12 Q
3
20
13 Q
1
20
13 Q
3
20
14 Q
1
Goods Services
10
4
-262
-290-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ESA 2010 ESA 95
5
2010 2010
Current prices in million euro ESA95 ESA2010 Change
PRODUCTION APPROACH 222151 226210 4058 18
Output of goods and services (at basic prices) 351385 356749 5364 15
Intermediate consumption (at purchasers prices) 156163 157104 941 06
Gross value added (at basic prices) 195222 199645 4424 23
Taxes on products 27368 26912 (456) -17
Subsidies on products 438 348 (90) -206
EXPENDITURE APPROACH 222151 226210 4058 18
Final consumption expenditure of Households 159440 154146 -5294 -33
Final consumption expenditure of NPISH 3614 4294 680 188
Final consumption expenditure of General Government 40749 48900 8151 200
Final consumption expenditure (Total) 203803 207340 3537 17
Gross fixed capital formation 39185 39056 -129 -03
Changes in inventories -230 -786 -556 -
Exports of goods and services 49414 49984 570 12
Imports of goods and services 70020 69384 -636 -09
INCOME APPROACH 222151 226209 4058 18
Compensation of employees 80493 81035 542 07
Gross operating surplus mixed income 117071 120553 3482 30
Taxes on production and imports 27926 27891 -35 -01
Subsidies 3339 3270 -69 -21
Difference
6
057 055
007 009
037
-043
061
-06
-04
-02
00
02
04
06
08
RampD Militaryequipment
Goods sentabroad
FISIM New orimproved
data
Newdwellings
Other
-21
9
-25
9
-57
7
-58
-35
8
-21
1
-25
6
-64
1
-25
-31
2
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Pri
vate
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Pu
blic
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Gro
ss c
apit
alfo
rmat
ion
Exp
ort
s g
amp s
Imp
ort
s g
amp s
ESA95 ESA 2010
7
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Saving rate of households amp NPISH ( of gross disposable income)
Gross disposable income of households amp NPISH (YoY )
3 Greek GDP NOWcasting model update Eurobank Global Markets Research 3 July 2014 link httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsGREEC_MACRO_FOCUS_July_3_2014_GDP_NOWCASTINGpdf) 4 H1 2014 real consumption expenditure of households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) was lower by ca 28 relative to its levels in the first half of 2008
8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
14
Q1
Metal products andmachinery
Transport equipment
Other
Construction(dwellings + other)
5 See ldquoExplaining and forecasting residential house prices in Greece- A technical noterdquo Greece Macro Monitor Eurobank Global Martkets Research March 10 2014 httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsExplaining_and_forecasting_residential_houseprices_in_Greece_Mar10_2014pdf 6 In 2013 next exports provided a 2ppts positive contribution to the annual change in real GDP
9
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
202
00
7 Q
1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10 Q
1
20
10 Q
3
20
11 Q
1
20
11 Q
3
20
12 Q
1
20
12 Q
3
20
13 Q
1
20
13 Q
3
20
14 Q
1
Goods Services
10
5
2010 2010
Current prices in million euro ESA95 ESA2010 Change
PRODUCTION APPROACH 222151 226210 4058 18
Output of goods and services (at basic prices) 351385 356749 5364 15
Intermediate consumption (at purchasers prices) 156163 157104 941 06
Gross value added (at basic prices) 195222 199645 4424 23
Taxes on products 27368 26912 (456) -17
Subsidies on products 438 348 (90) -206
EXPENDITURE APPROACH 222151 226210 4058 18
Final consumption expenditure of Households 159440 154146 -5294 -33
Final consumption expenditure of NPISH 3614 4294 680 188
Final consumption expenditure of General Government 40749 48900 8151 200
Final consumption expenditure (Total) 203803 207340 3537 17
Gross fixed capital formation 39185 39056 -129 -03
Changes in inventories -230 -786 -556 -
Exports of goods and services 49414 49984 570 12
Imports of goods and services 70020 69384 -636 -09
INCOME APPROACH 222151 226209 4058 18
Compensation of employees 80493 81035 542 07
Gross operating surplus mixed income 117071 120553 3482 30
Taxes on production and imports 27926 27891 -35 -01
Subsidies 3339 3270 -69 -21
Difference
6
057 055
007 009
037
-043
061
-06
-04
-02
00
02
04
06
08
RampD Militaryequipment
Goods sentabroad
FISIM New orimproved
data
Newdwellings
Other
-21
9
-25
9
-57
7
-58
-35
8
-21
1
-25
6
-64
1
-25
-31
2
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Pri
vate
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Pu
blic
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Gro
ss c
apit
alfo
rmat
ion
Exp
ort
s g
amp s
Imp
ort
s g
amp s
ESA95 ESA 2010
7
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Saving rate of households amp NPISH ( of gross disposable income)
Gross disposable income of households amp NPISH (YoY )
3 Greek GDP NOWcasting model update Eurobank Global Markets Research 3 July 2014 link httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsGREEC_MACRO_FOCUS_July_3_2014_GDP_NOWCASTINGpdf) 4 H1 2014 real consumption expenditure of households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) was lower by ca 28 relative to its levels in the first half of 2008
8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
14
Q1
Metal products andmachinery
Transport equipment
Other
Construction(dwellings + other)
5 See ldquoExplaining and forecasting residential house prices in Greece- A technical noterdquo Greece Macro Monitor Eurobank Global Martkets Research March 10 2014 httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsExplaining_and_forecasting_residential_houseprices_in_Greece_Mar10_2014pdf 6 In 2013 next exports provided a 2ppts positive contribution to the annual change in real GDP
9
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
202
00
7 Q
1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10 Q
1
20
10 Q
3
20
11 Q
1
20
11 Q
3
20
12 Q
1
20
12 Q
3
20
13 Q
1
20
13 Q
3
20
14 Q
1
Goods Services
10
6
057 055
007 009
037
-043
061
-06
-04
-02
00
02
04
06
08
RampD Militaryequipment
Goods sentabroad
FISIM New orimproved
data
Newdwellings
Other
-21
9
-25
9
-57
7
-58
-35
8
-21
1
-25
6
-64
1
-25
-31
2
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Pri
vate
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Pu
blic
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Gro
ss c
apit
alfo
rmat
ion
Exp
ort
s g
amp s
Imp
ort
s g
amp s
ESA95 ESA 2010
7
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Saving rate of households amp NPISH ( of gross disposable income)
Gross disposable income of households amp NPISH (YoY )
3 Greek GDP NOWcasting model update Eurobank Global Markets Research 3 July 2014 link httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsGREEC_MACRO_FOCUS_July_3_2014_GDP_NOWCASTINGpdf) 4 H1 2014 real consumption expenditure of households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) was lower by ca 28 relative to its levels in the first half of 2008
8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
14
Q1
Metal products andmachinery
Transport equipment
Other
Construction(dwellings + other)
5 See ldquoExplaining and forecasting residential house prices in Greece- A technical noterdquo Greece Macro Monitor Eurobank Global Martkets Research March 10 2014 httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsExplaining_and_forecasting_residential_houseprices_in_Greece_Mar10_2014pdf 6 In 2013 next exports provided a 2ppts positive contribution to the annual change in real GDP
9
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
202
00
7 Q
1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10 Q
1
20
10 Q
3
20
11 Q
1
20
11 Q
3
20
12 Q
1
20
12 Q
3
20
13 Q
1
20
13 Q
3
20
14 Q
1
Goods Services
10
7
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Saving rate of households amp NPISH ( of gross disposable income)
Gross disposable income of households amp NPISH (YoY )
3 Greek GDP NOWcasting model update Eurobank Global Markets Research 3 July 2014 link httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsGREEC_MACRO_FOCUS_July_3_2014_GDP_NOWCASTINGpdf) 4 H1 2014 real consumption expenditure of households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) was lower by ca 28 relative to its levels in the first half of 2008
8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
14
Q1
Metal products andmachinery
Transport equipment
Other
Construction(dwellings + other)
5 See ldquoExplaining and forecasting residential house prices in Greece- A technical noterdquo Greece Macro Monitor Eurobank Global Martkets Research March 10 2014 httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsExplaining_and_forecasting_residential_houseprices_in_Greece_Mar10_2014pdf 6 In 2013 next exports provided a 2ppts positive contribution to the annual change in real GDP
9
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
202
00
7 Q
1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10 Q
1
20
10 Q
3
20
11 Q
1
20
11 Q
3
20
12 Q
1
20
12 Q
3
20
13 Q
1
20
13 Q
3
20
14 Q
1
Goods Services
10
8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
14
Q1
Metal products andmachinery
Transport equipment
Other
Construction(dwellings + other)
5 See ldquoExplaining and forecasting residential house prices in Greece- A technical noterdquo Greece Macro Monitor Eurobank Global Martkets Research March 10 2014 httpwwweurobankgrUploadsReportsExplaining_and_forecasting_residential_houseprices_in_Greece_Mar10_2014pdf 6 In 2013 next exports provided a 2ppts positive contribution to the annual change in real GDP
9
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
202
00
7 Q
1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10 Q
1
20
10 Q
3
20
11 Q
1
20
11 Q
3
20
12 Q
1
20
12 Q
3
20
13 Q
1
20
13 Q
3
20
14 Q
1
Goods Services
10
9
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
202
00
7 Q
1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10 Q
1
20
10 Q
3
20
11 Q
1
20
11 Q
3
20
12 Q
1
20
12 Q
3
20
13 Q
1
20
13 Q
3
20
14 Q
1
Goods Services
10
10
