DIGITAL REVOLUTION AND SOCIAL ECONOMICAL IMPACT
KOEN DE LEUSBrussels, 25/11/2016
Crowd Sourcing - Brussels 2
What is happening?
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Swamped with black swans
Crowd Sourcing - Brussels
… and losers
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The Elephant Chart
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Source: Branko Milanovic
Crowd Sourcing - Brussels
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
95
115
135
155
175
195
215
Highest Lowest Middle Top-5%Source: Thomson Reuters
+75%
+20%
+90%
It’s getting better…for some
Income evolution US (per quintile)
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Hollowing out of middle class in US …
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… and in the European Union
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Source: Goos, Manning, Salamons (2014)
Change in occupational employment(shares in low, middle and high-wage occupations in 16 EU countries, 1993-2010)
… just like happened during earlier industrial revolutions
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Everything turned out fine eventually
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1913
1918
1923
1928
1933
1938
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
0
5
10
15
20
25 US: Income top-1%, top-0,1% and top-0,01%
Top 1% Top 0,1% Top 0,01%
Source: The World Wealth and Income database
Same old story?
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Jobs at risk
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Also in emerging markets
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Substution versus …
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… increase in wealth and creation of new jobs
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Boy cry wolf?
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US Participation rate: 25-54 year olds
Basic income
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Who will pay?
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Thank you
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DIGITAL REVOLUTION AND SOCIAL ECONOMICAL IMPACT
KOEN DE LEUSBrussels, 25/11/2016