15th IAEE European Conference 2017
u www.tugraz.at
Development Scenarios for the
Electricity Economy of Lithuania
06.09.2017
Udo Bachhiesl, Gerald Feichtinger, Heinz Stigler
Institute of Electricity Economics and Energy Innovation
Graz University of Technology
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15th IAEE European Conference 2017
Content
General energy economic framework
Simulation model ATLANTIS
Lithuania and the Baltic states
Scenario calculations
Conclusions
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15th IAEE European Conference 2017
General Energy Economic Framework
Global
8 Millennium dev. goals 2015 17 Sustainable dev. goals 2030
Paris Climate Agreement 2016
European Union
Energy strategic goals
Energy targets 2020: 20/20/20
Energy targets 2030: 40/27/27
Energy roadmap until 2050: GHG reduction up to -95%
Energy and climate related European guidelines
National implementation of energy guidelines
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Energy Political Frame for the Baltic Region
Energy markets of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania still lack adequate
electricity connections, both between themselves and to other parts of
the EU
Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP) forms part of the
overall 'EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region'
Projects of BEMIP part of European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP)
Currently the EstLink 1 and 2 connections between Estonia and
Finland, the LitPol Link connection between Lithuania and Poland and
the NordBalt connection between Sweden and Lithuania have raised
the interconnectivity of the Baltic States with the EU electricity market
Nordic electricity market model (NORDEL) will be extended to the
three Baltic States
Lithuania closed its last nuclear reactor, which had been generating
70% of its electricity, at the end of 2009, due to EU pressure
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Simulation model ATLANTIS
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36 Countries
180 Companies
5.053 Nodes
9.866 Lines
25.711 Powerplants
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Simulation process in ATLANTIS
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simulation period
2006 to 2050 (max.)
≈48 + 2 system adequacy
calculations p.a.
>2160 load flow calculations
2160 × power exchange
2160× Redispatch
simulation time: ≈48 h
produced data: ≈4 GB
applied software packages
ACCESS/VBA & MS SQL
GAMS, MATLAB,
EXCEL, ArcGIS, C#
database
scenario definitionscountries, fuel price development, demand development, inflation,
economic growth, interest rates, CO certificates, projects ...2
for annual peak load, (if necessary replacement of old capacities and “optimized” power plant placement)
system adequacy
for the peak and off-peak periods of each month
energy balance, dispatch, electricity exchange
for the peak and off-peak periods of each month
load flow and redispatch
annually for each company
financial accounting and CO -emissions2
graphical representations for each company and each market
analysis of results and reporting
power plants, grid, load profile, companies, balance sheets, fuelssystem services, markets, availabilities, maintenance, …
ye
ar
+ 1
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Modelling of the Baltic states
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Electricity Economy in Lithuania (1)
Energy Strategy 2020
Integration European Energy Market
Development of Energy Sources (RES)
3rd EU Energy package
Further Liberalisation of E-Market
Energy Efficiency
Sources of Electricity Production
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Electricity Production/Consumption in GWh
Gas
Hydro
Wind
Other
Biomass
Solar Waste
Shift from exporting to
importing country
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Development of installed power plant
capacity in Lithuania
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Installed Capacity
Nuclear
Renewables
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Other
Thermal (total)
CHP
Coal
Gas
Oil
Biomass
in [MW]
Simulation horizon
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The electricity system of Lithuania
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LitPol
NordBaltIgnalina
Level of interconnection: from 4% to 22%
15th IAEE European Conference 2017
Scenario calculations
Simulation up to the year 2030
Investigated scenarios:
Scenario 1: Consequences of closing of the nuclear power
plant Ignalina
Scenario 2: Connection of Baltic states to the European
continental network and the Nordic states
Scenario 3: Synchronisation with the electricity system of
continental Europe and simultaneously de-synchronisation
from IPS/UPS-system in 2025.
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Scenario 1: Shut down of NPP Ignalina (1)
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before shut down after shut down
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Scenario 1: Shut down of NPP Ignalina (2)
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Scenario 2: Connection to ECN/NORDIC (1)
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Scenario 2: Connection to ECN/NORDIC (2)
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Scenario 3: Synchronisation with European
Continental System (1)
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Scenario 3: Synchronisation with European
Continental System (2)
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Summary and Conclusions
Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP)
Aim: open and integrated regional electricity market in Baltic sea region
Implementation of 3rd energy package, infrastructure construction
Action plan to 2020, TYNDP
Synchronisation with continental European network 2025
Status
Baltic states have substantially increased level of interconnection:
2* EstLink, , LitPol, NordBalt
Positive impact on electricity prices and import dependency
2020 RES target already reached
Outlook
Synchronisation with continental system until 2025
Further simulations/investigations: NPP Visaginas, prices, capital stock..
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15th IAEE European Conference 2017
Assoc.Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr.techn.
Udo Bachhiesl
Technische Universität Graz
Institut für Elektrizitätswirtschaft
und Energieinnovation
Inffeldgasse 18
8010 Graz
Tel.: +43 316 873 7903
Fax: +43 316 873 10703
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.IEE.TUGraz.at
06.09.2017
Udo Bachhiesl, Institute of Electricity Economics and Energy Innovation/TU Graz
19 Thanky you for your attention!