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Developing Risk Assessment Protocols for Six Iconic Willamette River Bridges
Western Bridge Engineers SeminarSeptember 10, 2015
Reno, Nevada
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Speakers
Doug Lampkin, PEDavid Evans and Associates, Inc.
Ian Cannon, PEMultnomah County
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Agenda
• Background– Purpose, objectives, client involvement
• Custom Process and Roadmap– Phased approach
• Reporting and Results Summary
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CIP Purpose
• Action plan for 2015-2034
• Maintain County’s bridge investment
• Provide safe and reliable connections
• Prepare for expected earthquakes
• Durable decision process
• Comprehensive technical assessment
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Broadway Bridge
Burnside Bridge
Morrison Bridge
Hawthorne Bridge
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County MissionThe Multnomah County Board of Commissioners plans for the needs of a dynamic community, provides leadership to ensure quality services, prioritizes the needs of our most vulnerable and promotes a healthy, safe and prosperous community for all.
adopted June 2, 2011
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County Values• Social Justice• Health• Public Safety• Integrity• Stewardship• Creativity and Innovation• Sustainability
adopted June 2, 2011
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Applying County Values in the Bridge CIP
• Inform project development criteria• Model for applying the Equity Lens
– People, Place, Process, Power, and Purpose
– Develop broad criteria
– Openly engage stakeholders
– Consider needs of all multi-modal user groups
– Deliver future projects with equity in mind toward creating small business capacity-building opportunities
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Regional Seismic Threat
Source: Vincent/Wang presentation to BCC on 10/21/14
• 37% probability of a magnitude 8+ Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake in the next 50 years
• Large scale fatalities and injuries
• Billions in economic loss
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County Bridge Seismic Vulnerabilities
Source: Cannon/Drahota presentation to BCC on 11/6/14
• Downtown bridges are highly vulnerable to major earthquakes
• Seismic retrofitting is possible, but very expensive
• Burnside Bridge is a designated Lifeline Route over the Willamette River
Burnside Bridge
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Summary of Results
• 56 capital projects in 20 years
• Preservation and maintenance - $650M
• Seismic resiliency - $650M
• Priority for Burnside Bridge as a designated regional lifeline route
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Key Questions
• How should we compare and prioritize projects with widely varying needs and objectives?
• How should we forecast needs over 20 years?• How do we ensure that investment decisions are
durable over time?• How do we incorporate future flexibility into the
prioritization process?
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Bridge CIP Development Process
Stakeholder EngagementContinual Stakeholder Outreach
Stakeholder Summit #1
Spring 2014
Stakeholder Summit #2Winter 2015
Apply County Values
Conduct Engineering Assessment
Establish Project Bundles
Prioritize Projects Finalize Plan
• Equity Lens• Establish
Performance Criteria
• Workshops:• Proj. Definition• Programmatic• Perf. Attribute
• Knowledge• Inspect Bridges• Evaluate Needs• Develop Remedies• Establish Costs
• Similar Work• Urgency of Need• Efficiencies
• Assess Project Performance
• Calculate Cost of Inaction
• Consider Costs
• Implement Bridge CIP
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Technical Reviews
Project ComponentSite
InspectionDesktopReview
Mechanical & Electrical Roadway Approaches Bridge Structural Hydrological Bridge Deck, Sidewalk, & Railing
Paint System Seismic Resiliency Bike, Pedestrian, & Transit
Environmental
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Conduct Engineering Assessment
Assess existing conditions:• Bridge inspections & operational tests
• Interviews with County staff
• Stakeholder input
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Site SurveyHydrographic Survey – Identify scour pockets / pitting
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Establish Bridge CIP Projects
56 Capital Projects
Project Efficiencies &
Impacts
Urgency
Technical Dependency
400 Bridge Needs and
Deficiencies
200 Logical Groupings
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Cost-Benefit Prioritization
Factors that drive a project’s priority:• Urgency
• Consequence of inaction
• Alignment with County values
• Cost
• Available funding
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Importance Factor Equation
IT=x= Oprob,T=x
Definitions of Terms:1. Occurrence Probability (likelihood of need)2. Consequence of Inaction (financial impacts)
• Escalation Costs (ESCT=x)• Additional Direct Cost (ADCT=x)• Indirect Cost (ICT=x)• Direct Cost (DCinit)
3. Performance Delta (owner and user benefits over time)
x [1+ ](ESCT=x + ADCT=x + ICT=x )DCinit
x PerfDT=x
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Occurrence Probabilities
Mag. 9.0 earthquake
failure37% chance in next 50 years
Bridge deck failure
Rehab. = 90%Replace = 30%
Mechanical failure
Dependent on bridge
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Consequence of Inaction
Time cost change subtotal (escalation, direct and indirect): 314,952$ 871,981$ 3,969,948$ 7,515,373$
T = 0 to 5 yrs T = 6 to 10 yrs T = 11 to 15 yrs T = 16 to 20 yrs20% 60% 90% 100%
T = 0 to 5 yrs T = 6 to 10 yrs T = 11 to 15 yrs T = 16 to 20 yrs90% 80% 60% 35%
Occurrence Probabilities:
Cost Risk Probabilities:
1
5
T = 0 to 5 yrs T = 6 to 10 yrs T = 11 to 15 yrs T = 16 to 20 yrs200,000$ 500,000$ 3,300,000$ 6,500,000$
Comments on direct cost change:
Initial increases are primarily for barrier rail rehabilitation. Later time step increases reflect a shift from driving surface rehabilitation to potential full replacement where not already
d
Direct cost change(after the 2014 construction value)
2
T = 0 to 5 yrs T = 6 to 10 yrs T = 11 to 15 yrs T = 16 to 20 yrs-$ -$ -$ -$
Comments on indirect costs:
Indirect costs(after the 2014 construction value)4
Escalation cost(of the 2014 construction value): 114,952$ 371,981$ 669,948$ 1,015,373$
3
Minor Deck Rehabilitation: Initial Direct Construction Cost = $350,00
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Performance Attribute Ratings
Attribute Baseline Score ("do nothing")
Score at T = 0-5 yrs
Score at T = 6-10 yrs
Score at T = 11-15 yrs
Score at T = 16-20 yrs
Moveable Operations 0 0 0 0 0
Regional Alignment -1 1 1 1 1
Structural Integrity -1 1 1 2 2
Emergency Preparedness 0 0 0 0 0
Maintenance -1 1 1 2 2
User Safety -1 1 2 2 2
Livable Community -1 1 2 2 2
Social Justice -1 0 0 1 1
Sustainability -1 1 1 1 1
Traffic Operations -1 1 1 1 1
It’s the CHANGE in the Ratings that matter!
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PERFORM COST RISK ANALYSIS
FOR BUNDLE DIRECT COSTS
DEVELOP AND VET INDIRECT
COST CATEGORIES
COST RISK WORKSHOP
ACTI
ON
S
• Physical consequences
• User costs• Penalty costs • Stakeholder
requests
DEVELOP INDIRECT
COSTS
• Perform Monte Carlo Analysis
• Develop added direct costs
• Assign cost risk probabilities
• Confirm bundle compositions
• Collaboratively identify cost risks
ACTI
ON
S
ACTI
ON
S
ACTI
ON
S
Summary of Cost Risk Analysis
• Developindirect cost
• Assign risk probabilities
• Perform CRA
A B C D
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$2.0
$2.3
$2.5
$4.0
$4.7
$5.4
$7.6
$9.4
$11.2
$10.9
$14.2
$17.6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0
Prob
abili
ty o
f NO
T Ex
ceed
ing
Cost by Year Group Millions
Preliminary Cost Risk Analysis Results for BUN-MU-02
Year 0 to 5 Year 6 to 10 Year 11 to 15 Year 16 to 20
Slope of curve = Degree of Cost Risk Uncertainty
Direct Cost Risk Analysis
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Database
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Project Data Fact Sheet Example
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Seismic Investment Options
BaselineRehab. &
Maint.
Option 1
Rehab. &Maint.
Burnside Seismic
Resiliency
Option 2
Seismic Resiliency
Most
Limited Seismic on 3 Bridges
Rehab. &Maint.
Option 3
Least
Option 4
Replace County’s 4 downtown
movable bridges
Rehab. &Maint.
Enhanced Seismic on 3 Bridges
Option 5
Limited Seismic on 3 Bridges
Rehab. &Maint.
$650M
$1.0B
$1.3B
$2.5B
Staff Recommends Option 3
Burnside Seismic
Resiliency
Burnside Seismic
Resiliency
$1.9B
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Prioritize Projects
Funded Projects
2015-20191 2Remaining life
2020-2024
Remaining life
2025-2029 2030-2034
Assign projects across time intervals by importance3
4 Prioritize Prioritize Prioritize Prioritize
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Results by Bridge
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Prioritization Results
0
0.5
1
1.5
0
50
100
150
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Cum
ulat
ive
Prog
ram
Cos
t (B
illio
ns)
Proj
ect C
osts
Per
Yea
r (M
illio
ns)
Cumulative Cost CurveYearly Cost Cumulative Program Cost