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Demography of southern leathersidechub in the presence and absence of an introduced predator
Mark C. Belk, Eric Billman, Josh Rasmussen, Karen Mock, Jerald B.
Johnson
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Predation – complex effects, experimental approaches
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Transition matrix – a powerful tool
• Vital rates and matrix methods• Combine matrix models with predation
experiments • Unravel ecological and evolutionary
consequences of predation
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Southern leatherside chub (Lepidomeda aliciae)
serial mark-recapture experiment on two populations of southern leatherside chub – one that co-occurs with introduced brown trout and one without
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Stage-structured model• Serial mark-recapture, 2 locations, 3-4 years, • 3-stages based on size and maturity• Fecundity estimates based on independent
samples• Pre-breeding census model, s0, survival of
offspring from birth to first counting (1 year), applied to fecundity estimates
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Three questions
• Are there detectable differences in mortality rate between brown trout and non-brown trout environments?
• What are population demographic consequences of brown trout predation?
• Which vital rates have the greatest impact on population growth and fitness?
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Survival estimates
No-predator – Salina Creek
Predator – Lost Creek
Stage
juvenile young adult old adult
Sur
viva
l
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0no predator, Salina Creekpredator, Lost Creek
s0 = 0.0014s0 = 0.0033
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Juveniles Young adults
Old adults
Juveniles S1 F2 F3Young adults G1 S2Old adults G1,2 G2 S3
1 2 3
F2 F3
G1G1,2G2
S2S3
Life cycle and transition matrix
S1
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Juveniles Young adults Old adults
Juveniles 0.0168 1.4497 3.6925Young adults 0.5376 0.2688Old adults 0.0056 0.2112 0.58
No-predator, Salina Creek
Juveniles Young adults Old adults
Juveniles 0.0688 2.2771 7.687Young adults 0.284 0.162Old adults 0 0.1345 0.29
Predator, Lost Creek
Transition matricesJuveniles Young adults Old adults
Juveniles S1 F2 F3Young adults G1 S2Old adults G1,2 G2 S3
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Demographics
No predator, Salina Creek
Predator, Lost Creek
Population growth rate 1.32 1.12
Net reproductive rate 2.52 1.36
Generation time 3.32 2.76
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Growth rates of individuals
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4
Age (years)
Stan
dard
leng
th (m
m)
No predator, Salina Creek
predator, Lost Creek
Billman et al. 2011, Eco. Fresh. Fish
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Demographics
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Juvenile Youngadult
Old adult
Prop
ortio
n of
pop
uula
tion
no predatorpredator
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Juveniles Young adults Old adults
Juveniles 0.004274 0.188293 0.143655Young adults 0.324856 0.082933Old adults 0.007092 0.136563 0.112335
No-predator, Salina Creek
Juveniles Young adults Old adults
Juveniles 0.02418 0.237917 0.130575Young adults 0.368492 0.062489Old adults 0 0.130575 0.045772
Predator, Lost Creek
Elasticity analysisJuveniles Young adults Old adults
Juveniles S1 F2 F3Young adults G1 S2Old adults G1,2 G2 S3
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Conclusions
• Are there detectable differences in mortality rate between brown trout and non-brown trout environments? – YES. Pattern is stage-specific and alternates
• What are population demographic consequences of brown trout predation? – change in λ, stable stage distribution, T – mainly through modification of growth rates (G)
and the s0 component of fecundity.
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Conclusions
• Which vital rates have the greatest impact on population growth and fitness? – Early growth and fecundity contribute most to
population growth and fitness
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Application
• For fisheries, humans act as predator– Potential for strong ecological effects
• Introduced fish– Population demography as tool– e.g. effect of burbot on important fisheries species
• Native species conservation– Effect of introduced species– Effect of habitat degradation– Interacting effects