Information | Analytics | Expertise
© 2014 IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
MEXICO AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK Leon, Guanajuato
DECEMBER, 2014
Guido Vildozo, Manager Latin America Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts, IHS
© 2014 IHS
Agenda
• Global Outlook
• Global Cadence
• US Sales
• Mexico Sales
• NAFTA Production
• Mexico Production
• Key Takeaways
2
© 2014 IHS 3
… World Sales on a roll … But the strong climb has “tapered off” in recent months
© 2014 IHS Source: IHS
Auto Demand Trends- Wobbles or bigger worries/ July 2014
World auto sales on a roll Lig
ht ve
hic
le s
ale
s
40
45
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55
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65
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85
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jun.-
20
05
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13
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ma
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14
Millo
ne
s
World SAAR and Trend
World Without China, SAAR and Trend
July 14
© 2014 IHS
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8Ja
n'0
7
Jan'0
8
Jan'0
9
Jan'1
0
Jan'1
1
Jan'1
2
Jan
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Jan'1
4
ASEAN C Europe E Europe Gr China
India Japan Korea Mid-East/Africa N America
S America W Europe
Se
aso
na
lly A
dju
ste
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elli
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Ra
tes
Ind
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d 2
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7=
1
Source: IHS Analysis, X12 Seasonal Adjustment
2007 Sales Level
Lehman Collapse
GC
SA
IN
AS
NA
WE
CE
JK MEA
Region light vehicle selling rates China remains on different path than other developing markets
EE
4
© 2014 IHS
Global light vehicle sales outlook 2013-14 sales volume
83.3
85.7
+ 1.9
+ 1.0
+ 0.6
+ 0.4
+ 0.2 - 0.2
- 0.6
- 0.7
83.2
83.7
84.2
84.7
85.2
85.7
86.2
86.7
87.2
2013 Greater China North America West Europe MiddleEast/Africa
Japan/Korea South Asia Central/EastEurope
South America 2014
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
+3%
5
© 2014 IHS
World light vehicle sales forecast Outlook optimistic due to US/Euro recovery and continued China growth
Source: IHS Automotive Sales Forecasts
85.7 88.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total sales 2006-13:
577 million vehicles Total sales 2014-21:
767 million vehicles
An
nu
al s
ale
s, in
mill
ion
s
6
© 2014 IHS
Light vehicle sales forecast Importance of emerging markets will continue to grow
0
10
20
30
40
50
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Mature MarketsChinaOthers
Source: IHS Automotive, Mature Markets = US, Canada, Japan, S Korea, Australia, NZ, W Europe
Change 2001-21:
MM down 5% China up 1,400% Others up 200%
7
© 2014 IHS
Average Cycle Time by Region
8
Region 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Europe 7.0 7.1 6.0 6.3 6.0
Greater China 8.7 7.7 5.8 7.8 7.1
Japan/Korea 3.8 6.0 5.1 7.1 5.2
North America 5.6 5.2 5.5 5.5 4.9
South America 11.3 3.1 8.4 6.9 5.5
• Integration of global platforms into NA, China and South America increases ‘cycle velocity’ • Global cycle timing is declining towards sub 6 years as all regions move lockstep with global platform
timing
• Impact of delayed timing for several European mass market offerings reflective of extended timing. For China, growth of domestic players with longer cadence underscore the shift.
© 2014 IHS
6.8 6.1
5.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Weig
hte
d C
ad
en
ce (
Years
) Program Cadence
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mu
lti
Re
gio
n S
ha
re
Multi-Region Platforms
After 2015, multi-region (global)
platforms approach 70% of volume
90
73
110 106 115 113
128 125
161
140
115
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Lau
nch
Ev
en
t C
ou
nt
Global Launch Events
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
2010
2015
2020
Average Platform Volume (Over 50K/Year)
Faster, Greater Scale & Integrated Industry Pace and Risk Rises …
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1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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2015
6 Month Moving Average Actual
(Percent Yes)
Conference Board
Not just a needs based recovery, but wants driven
Intention to buy in the next six months
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1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Current Forecast July 2011 Forecast Jan-13
(Units in millions)
The forecast is roughly 300k to 600k per year higher than a few months ago
US Light Vehicle Sales
© 2014 IHS 12
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millo
ne
s
LV Sales (left scale)
Million Units
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales SAAR
© 2014 IHS
13
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Light Veh -L Annual Change -R
Units
Forecast calls for increased competition and more credit
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales More manufacturing bring us to new highs?
© 2014 IHS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Others Mitsubishi Daimler Suzuki BMW
Mazda Toyota Honda Fiat Ford
Volkswagen General Motors Renault/Nissan
Percentage
Nissan, GM and VW will face competition
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Market Share
© 2014 IHS
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Mil
lon
es
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Units
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Bodytype
© 2014 IHS
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8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Mill
ones
Sales Production
Post Restructuring
Lo
caliz
atio
n
Exp
an
sio
n
Exp
ort
s
• From 2001- 2009, regional sales eclipse output by 27% or 3.7 million units
• 2017 – 2021, future sales levels outpace production by less than 7.0% or by ~1 million units
• Positive sales trajectory tapers after peak in 2017
• Long-term output nears 18.5M units – far surpasses 16.0M unit pre-2009 levels
N. America - LV Sales and Production
© 2014 IHS 16
© 2014 IHS
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Y-O
-Y %
Ch
an
geO
utp
ut (M
illio
ns)
United States Mexico Canada Change
CAGR 1.2%
CAGR 7.1%
CAGR -4.3%
2014 – 2020
17
North American Market Structure
© 2014 IHS 18
OEM 2013
(000s) 2014F (000s)
% ∆ ∆ Units (000s)
GM 3,287 3,375 2.7% 89
Ford 3,080 3,020 -1.9% -60
Chry/Fiat 2,509 2,749 9.5% 240
Detroit 3 8,876 9,144 3.0% 269
Toyota 1,863 1,960 5.2% 97
Honda 1,782 1,828 2.6% 47
Ren/Nissan 1,470 1,718 16.9% 248
Hyundai 769 767 -0.3% -2
Asian 4 5,884 6,273 6.6% 389
VW 654 626 -4.2% -28
BMW 297 349 17.3% 51
Daimler 206 248 20.1% 41
German 3 1,157 1,222 5.6% 65
Others 260 379 45.9% 119
Total 16.2M 17.0M 5.2% ~842
• Healthy production growth rate as recovery progresses
• Ford – Down time for F-150 and 2015 programs and less exports (MEX)
• Chrysler – Fiat-based product ramps-up
• Nissan – Migration of CUV production; Mexico expansion
• Honda and Mazda start new operations in Mexico!
Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Production Forecast
North America Light Vehicle Production 2013 vs 2014
30
43
24 23
20
17 18
25
16
34
21
29
34
37
32
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
North American Program Launches
19 Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Production Forecast
Market Dynamics Launch Activity Surges, Investment & Competition Too
© 2014 IHS
© 2014 IHS
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
PROD
(Millions of units)
Forecast at risk due to Brazil
Mexico Light Vehicle Production More growth to come
© 2014 IHS 21
Presentation Name / Month 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TOTAL VOLUME 2,258,727 2,547,270 2,865,872 2,926,860 3,243,398 3,360,884 3,562,545 4,225,453 4,492,197 4,802,667 4,930,505
PLATFORMS BEING PRODUCED 19 19 19 19 22 21 28 27 31 30 29
NUMBER OF LAUNCHES 0 1 2 2 4 0 7 1 7 2 1
VOLUME/PLATFORM 118,880 134,067 150,835 154,045 147,427 160,042 127,234 156,498 144,910 160,089 170,017
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Europe South AmericaMiddle East/Africa AsiaNorth America
No
rth
Am
erica
n V
eh
icle
Exp
ort
s (M
illio
ns)
Mexico Vehicle Exports by Region
1.64 1.37
1.76
1.98
1.71
2.14
2.32 2.37
2.64
2.94
• Greater use of global platforms allows for more “export ready” product
• 40+ Free trade agreements drive Mexican output
• Expansion of luxury segment capability across the region into Mexico
• SA exports hurt by Brazil and Argentina
• Sourcing patterns favor NA expansion as a safe haven; with currency hedge & export prospects
3.25
Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Forecast
North America Light Vehicle Production Exports bolster prospects
© 2014 IHS
Global Top 10 Production Countries
2010 2014 2015 2020
1 China China China China
2 Japan United States United States United States
3 United States Japan Japan Japan
4 Germany Germany Germany India
5 South Korea South Korea India Germany
6 India India South Korea Mexico
7 Brazil Mexico Mexico Brazil
8 Spain Brazil Brazil South Korea
9 Mexico Thailand Spain Thailand
10 France Canada Thailand Spain
23
• Mexico is definitely on the industry’s radar
• Will continue to ascend among Top 10 in the 2015-2020 time period
• Could build more than Brazil!
© 2014 IHS 24
• Global growth is driven by TRIAD as opposed to emerging nations in 2014
• US has another solid year, we are now back to business as usual
• July/August Mexico sales could herald potential of the market
• Used car imports should hold momentum
• SUVs will diversify, here comes the wave of B-SUVs
• Luxury Segment is key
• NAFTA production sees more investment, particularly due to localization
• Mexican production is at 3 million unit mark quickly ascending to 5 million units!
• Continues to rely heavily on the US
Key Takeaways
Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America Vehicle Sales [email protected]
Thank you! Muchas Gracias! Muito Obrigado!
© 2014 IHS
For more information, please contact
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800 447 2273 (IHS CARE)
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