Dec. 7th, 2005 1
New York State’s High School Demographics
Considerations for Change
SUNY Directors MeetingDecember 7, 2005
Herkimer County Community College
Renée M. Overdyke Director of Enrollment Analysis
Office of Enrollment ManagementSUNY System Administration
Dec. 7th, 2005 2
NYS High School DemographicsConsiderations for Change
NYS High School Graduate Projections
Regional Distributions
Racial/Ethnic Trends and Distributions
Future Analyses
Dec. 7th, 2005 3
NYS High School Projection M E T H O D O L O G Y
Originally developed by Dr. Glenwood Rowse, Coordinator, Office of Research and Information Systems NYSED.
Cohort Survival Method based on prior year grade-to-grade attrition (or growth) using at least four years of K-12 historical data.
Designed as a hybrid model that finds the best value, or “Grade Progression Rate” (GPR) to project future cohorts.
The model selects the best of 3 different ways of computing the GPR: (1.) basic average, (2.) weighted average and (3.) the “trend” or linear regression (R2) of the most recent years.
The level of analysis is the county; county #’s & ratios are generally quite stable making this a reliable level of detail to work from.
Important to remember any projection figures will vary as new data becomes available.
Accordingly, the first several projected years are likely to be more accurate, with the margin of error increasing the further out we project.
Data Source: The NYSED Institutional Master File
Dec. 7th, 2005 4
NYS High School GraduatesActual & Projected / Public & Non-public
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
185,000
190,000
1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Actuals 1994 - 2004 Projections 2005 - 2016
Updates coming soon!
Dec. 7th, 2005 5
Source ComparisonNYS Projected HS Graduates [Public & Non-public]
(All sources used SED IMF data)
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
185,000
190,000
Overdyke
WICHE
SED
Dec. 7th, 2005 6SEE ABOVE
CLINTON
FRANKLIN
ESSEX
ST LAWRENCE
HA
MIL
TO
N
WARREN
WA
SHIN
GTO
N
SAR
ATO
GA
SCH’tdy
FULTON
MONT.
HE
RK
IME
R
ONEIDA
OTSEGO
SCHOHARIE
SCH’tdy
REN
SSELAER
CO
LU
MB
IAGREENE
MADISON
LEWIS
WESTCHESTER
ROCKLAND
ORANGE
SULLIVAN
DUTCHESS
ULSTER
DELAWARE
TOMPKINS
TIOGABROOME
CHENANGO
OSWEGO
JEFFERSON
ONONDAGA
CAYUGA
QUEENSMANHATTAN.
NYC – 5 Boroughs
STATEN IS.
BRONX
WAYNE
MONROE
ORLEANS
NIAGARAGENESEE
ONTARIO
SEN
EC
ALIVINGSTO
N
WYOM
INGERIE
CHAUTAUQUA
CATTARAUGUS
ALLEGANY
STEUBENCHEMUNG
SCHUYLER
YATES
NASSAU
SUFFOLK
Western
Northeast
NYC
BROOKLYN
% Change in Projected NYS High School Graduates
2004 (actual) vs. 2010 (projected)
CORTLAND
Mid-Hudson
Northern
Genesee Valley
Central
Long Island
+21% or more +11% to +20% +1% to +10%
-1% to -10% -11% to -20% -21% or less
ALBANY
Putnam
Dec. 7th, 2005 7SEE ABOVE
CLINTON
FRANKLIN
ESSEX
ST LAWRENCE
HA
MIL
TO
N
WARREN
WA
SHIN
GTO
N
SAR
ATO
GA
SCH’tdy
FULTON
MONT.
HE
RK
IME
R
ONEIDA
OTSEGO
SCHOHARIE
SCH’tdy
REN
SSELAER
CO
LU
MB
IAGREENE
MADISON
LEWIS
PUTNAM
WESTCHESTER
ROCKLAND
ORANGE
SULLIVAN
DUTCHESS
ULSTER
DELAWARE
TOMPKINS
TIOGABROOME
CHENANGO
OSWEGO
JEFFERSON
ONONDAGA
CAYUGA
QUEENSMANHATTAN.
NYC – 5 Boroughs
STATEN IS.
BRONX
WAYNE
MONROE
ORLEANS
NIAGARAGENESEE
ONTARIO
SEN
EC
ALIVINGSTO
N
WYOM
INGERIE
CHAUTAUQUA
CATTARAUGUS
ALLEGANY
STEUBENCHEMUNG
SCHUYLER
YATES
NASSAU
SUFFOLK
Western
Northeast
NYC
BROOKLYN
% Change in Projected NYS High School Graduates
2004 (actual) vs. 2015 (projected)
CORTLAND
Mid-Hudson
Northern
Genesee Valley
Central
Long Island
+21% or more +11% to +20% +1% to +10%
-1% to -10% -11% to -20% -21% or less
ALBANY
Putnam
Dec. 7th, 2005 8
NYS 12th Grade Enrollment Totals % White vs. % Students of Color
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
% White % Students of Color
Dec. 7th, 2005 9
NYS 12th Grade Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity
1976-77
Hispanic, 5.7%
Asian/PI, 1.1%
Black,14.7% Native American,
0.2%
White (NH), 78.2%
1986-87
White (NH)76.9%
Native American
0.2%
Black12.5%
Asian/PI3.1%
Hispanic7.3%
1996-97
Hispanic, 10.7%
Asian/PI, 6.1%
Black, 13.8%Native
American, 0.3%
White (NH), 69.1%
2004-05
Hispanic, 12.8%
Asian/PI, 6.6%
Black, 15.3%
Native American,
0.4%
White (NH), 65.0%
Dec. 7th, 2005 10
A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons
WESTERN REGION{Cohort size ranks 6th of the 8 Regents Regions.}
NIAGARA
ERIE
ALLEGANY
NIAGARA
ERIE
ALLEGANY
Total 19,962 100%
White 15,382 78.1%
Hispanic 735 3.7%
Asian/PI 279 1.4%
Black 2,988 15.2%
Native US 308 1.6%
2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
Dec. 7th, 2005 11
A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons
GENESEE VALLEY {Cohort size ranks 5th of the 8 Regents Regions.}
Total 19,793 100%
White 15,222 76.9%
Hispanic 1,046 5.3%
Asian/PI 366 1.8%
Black 3,103 15.7%
Native US 56 0.3%
2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
WAYNE
MONROE
GENESEEONTARIO
STEUBEN
SCHUYLER
YATES
Dec. 7th, 2005 12
A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons
CENTRAL REGION {Cohort size ranks 7th of the 8 Regents Regions.}
Total 17,362 100%
White 14,995 86.4%
Hispanic 404 2.3%
Asian/PI 269 1.5%
Black 1,565 9.0%
Native US 129 0.7%
2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
ONEIDA
OTSEGO
MADISON
DELAWARE
TIOGABROOME
OSWEGO
ONONDAGA
CAYUGA
Dec. 7th, 2005 13
A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons
NORTHERN REGION {Cohort size ranks 8th of the 8 Regents Regions.}
Total 3,868 100%
White 3,482 90.0%
Hispanic 63 1.6%
Asian/PI 52 1.3%
Black 149 3.9%
Native US 122 3.2%
2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
FRANKLIN
ST LAWRENCE
LEWIS
JEFFERSON
Dec. 7th, 2005 14
A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons
NORTHEAST REGION {Cohort size ranks 4th of the 8 Regents Regions.}
Total 20,770 100%
White 17,906 86.2%
Hispanic 699 3.4%
Asian/PI 393 1.9%
Black 1,739 8.4%
Native US 33 0.2%
2004-05 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads:
2004 vs. 2010
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
CLINTON
ESSEX
FULTON
MONT.SCH’tdy
GREENE
ALBANY
Dec. 7th, 2005 15
A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons
MID-HUDSON REGION {Cohort size ranks 3rd of the 8 Regents Regions.}
Total 34,044 100%
White 22,939 67.4%
Hispanic 4,906 14.4%
Asian/PI 1,352 4.0%
Black 4,786 14.1%
Native US 61 0.2%
2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
ORANGE
SULLIVAN
ULSTER
Putnam
WESTCHESTER
Dec. 7th, 2005 16
A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons
NYC – 5 BOROUGHS {Cohort size ranks 1st of the 8 Regents Regions.}
Total 96,411 100%
White 22,835 23.7%
Hispanic 33,302 34.5%
Asian/PI 10,572 11.0%
Black 29,263 30.4%
Native US 439 0.5%
2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads:
2004 vs. 2010
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
QUEENSMANHATTAN.
NYC – 5 Boroughs
STATEN IS.
BRONX
BROOKLYN
Dec. 7th, 2005 17
A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons
LONG ISLAND {Cohort size ranks 2nd of the 8 Regents Regions.}
Total 41,169 100%
White 29,079 70.6%
Hispanic 5,153 12.5%
Asian/PI 2,044 5.0%
Black 4,824 11.7%
Native US 69 0.2%
2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads:
2004 vs. 2010
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
SUFFOLK
NASSAU
Dec. 7th, 2005 18
Notes of InterestUpstate/Downstate Divergences
Overall, Upstate NY’s general population grew by a mere 1.1 percent in the 1990’s, slower than the growth rate of every state but West Virginia and North Dakota.
Within Upstate NY, only two regions grew in the 1990’s, the Hudson Valley region which extends north of NYC through Albany and Saratoga.
Upstate NY’s racial/ethnic minority population is small and unevenly distributed among its metropolitan areas & segregated within them.
Overall, more people moved out of Upstate NY than moved in during the 1990’s; 1.7 million migrating out & 1.3 million coming in.
Nearly 30 percent of new residents in Upstate NY in the 1990s were prisoners.
Source: Brookings Institute/US Census
Dec. 7th, 2005 19
Notes of InterestUpstate/Downstate Divergences
NYC’s general population grew considerably during the 1990’s, with a record 8 million residents in 2000.
Neighborhoods throughout the city grew, especially the outer boroughs and surrounding areas.
NYC owes it’s population growth and unrivaled diversity to new arrivals from abroad. Whites, blacks and Hispanic’s each make up at least a quarter of the city’s population.
The city added nearly 800,000 residents from abroad. Without this gain in immigrants, the city’s population would have decreased over the 1990’s.
Nearly half of the city’s foreign-born come from the Caribbean and Latin America, but significant numbers also hail from Eastern Europe and East Asia.
Source: Brookings Institute/US Census
Dec. 7th, 2005 20
What’s Next??? Further refine and update projection model. Drill down to the district level, so we can tie to SUNY’s top
feeder schools.
Also try county (district?) level projections for racial/ethnic, gender, and socio-economic distributions.
Continue to tie NYS high school data to SUNY applicant and enrollee trends for planning purposes.
Take a closer look at the “Big Five” school districts.
Consider other NYS demographic features such as national origin, language, sub-cultural elements, etc.
Dec. 7th, 2005 21
Questions??? Contact:
Renée M. OverdykeDirector of Enrollment Analysis
Office of Enrollment ManagementSUNY System Administration
[email protected](518) 443 - 5474
New York State’s High School DemographicsConsiderations for Change
THANK YOU