1DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Decision Support SystemDecision Support Systemfor Fighter Pilotsfor Fighter Pilots
Lars Rosenberg RandleffLars Rosenberg Randleff
Danish Defence Research Establishment /Danish Defence Research Establishment /Technical University of DenmarkTechnical University of Denmark
2DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Agenda
• Project Description
• The Four Approaches• Prolog• Bayesian Net• Integer Programming• Metaheuristics
• Comparing Approaches
• Conclusion
3DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Agenda
• Project Description
• The Four Approaches• Prolog• Bayesian Net• Integer Programming• Metaheuristics
• Comparing Approaches
• Conclusion
5DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Project Description
• To explorer a number of technologies within AI and OR that may be used in designing a DSS for fighter pilots.
• The DSS is to be used in finding a response to ground based threats.
6DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Requirements
• Real-time
• Hardware
• Updateable
• Trustworthy
• Useful
• User Interface
7DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Agenda
• Project Description
• The Four Approaches• Prolog• Bayesian Net• Integer Programming• Metaheuristics
• Comparing Approaches
• Conclusion
8DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
A Prolog Example
%-----------------% Find appropriate countermeasures.%-----------------proper_cm(Angle, jammer) :- ( warning(rwr, (Angle, _)), warning(mws, (Angle, _)), jammer_mode(auto) );( warning(rwr, (Angle, _)), warning(mws, (DiffAngle, _)), Angle \== DiffAngle );( warning(rwr, (Angle, _)), not(warning(mws, (_, _))) ).
• ”When the jammer is jamming it may influence the RWR and jammers of other aircraft.”
• “When the jammer is in 'auto' mode, it will jam the RF sources detected.”
• If the MWS indicates a missile in a given direction, and the RWR does not, the missile is IR guided.
9DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Some Results
”Use flares, chaff, jammer, or towed decoy. Do not use chaff to counter SA-5 and SA-10. Use jammer in auto mode.”
10DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Agenda
• Project Description
• The Four Approaches• Prolog• Bayesian Net• Integer Programming• Metaheuristics
• Comparing Approaches
• Conclusion
12DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Semi-automatic Population
ExcelMATLAB
desc.MATLAB
prog.
HUGIN
TextfileTextfileTextfile
15DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Agenda
• Project Description
• The Four Approaches• Prolog• Bayesian Net• Integer Programming• Metaheuristics
• Comparing Approaches
• Conclusion
17DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Lethality
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
x 104
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4x 10
4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
x 104
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4x 10
4
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5000
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Scenario Lethality
22DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Constraints I
Time
Ot
ttt
t
TtTtt
OOO
O
AAOstartstart
1
1
''
0'
'
At
Ot’
Ot’’
Tstart Tend
23DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Constraints II
Time
At
Tstart
Ot
Ct
starttt TCAT max
0
0
1)1(
1
max
1max
1
t
tt
ttt
tt
C
OTC
COTC
CC
24DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Constraints III
Time
Ot
At
Ot’
Ot’’
Tstart Tend
''1
'1
tTt
t
Tt
tjstartj
OA
OTO
end
start
)''1(
''
1
1
t
Tt
tjendj
t
Tt
tjendj
OTO
OTA
end
end
28DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Agenda
• Project Description
• The Four Approaches• Prolog• Bayesian Net• Integer Programming• Metaheuristics
• Comparing Approaches
• Conclusion
30DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Parameters in SA
• Algorithm• Cooling Schedule• Start Temperature• End Temperature• Acceptance• Stopping Criteria• Objective Function• Neighbourhood• Initial Solution
34DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Agenda
• Project Description
• The Four Approaches• Prolog• Bayesian Net• Integer Programming• Metaheuristics
• Comparing Approaches
• Conclusion
35DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Comparing Approaches I
• Prolog is easy to use, and easy to model
• BN is not categorical; it treats probabilities
• IP ensures the optimal solutions; but is too slow for a real-time DSS
• A metaheuristic will not necessarily give an optimal solution; but it will find a solution fast
37DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Agenda
• Project Description
• The Four Approaches• Prolog• Bayesian Net• Integer Programming• Metaheuristics
• Comparing Approaches
• Conclusion
38DDRE/DTUAUGUST 2007
Conclusion
• Four approaches to a DSS for fighter pilots have been implemented
• All approaches have pros and cons
• None of the approaches fulfil all requirements
• More research may find the best technology for developing a DSS for fighter pilots