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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
Data mining in the joint D-PHASE and COPS archive
Mathias W. Rotach, Marco Arpagaus Manfred Dorninger, Christoph Hegg,
Andrea Montani, Roberto Ranzi, Volker Wulfmeyer
COPS WorkshopHohenheim, 27-29 January 2008
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2 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Data mining
• Data mining is the application of statistical -mathematical methods on a data set with the goal of pattern recognition. Thereby in particular those methods will be applied, which have excellent asymptotic run times. Thus data mining is often applied in connection with large data sets.
Wikipedia
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3 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
What is available?
• 7 probabilistic and 23 high-resolution deterministic atmospheric models
• 7 coupled hydrological models (deterministic and probabilistic)
• Lots of model runs • Lots of data
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4 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
What is available?
• 6 months, 180 days, 4380 hours• > 10‘000 model runs (only atmospheric)• > 20‘000‘000 warnings• > 50‘000‘000 graphic files (only atmospheric)• > 50‘000‘000 model fields (COPS domain, JJA)
from high-resolution models
All stored at DA in Hamburg....and made possible through collaboration with COPS
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5 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
What can be done?
• Evaluate numerical models using COPS data--> find model deficiencies--> investigate key processes in orographic precipitation--> case studies
• Expect many examples
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6 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
What can be done?
• Evaluate numerical models in D-PHASE Domain• Example: COSMO-LEPS• SYNOP reports over the MAP D-PHASE (about 470
stations each day)• 12h-cumulated precipitation • Courtesy Chiara Marsigli and Andrea Montani,
ARPA-SIM
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7 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
COSMO-LEPS Verification
Brier Skill Score, JJA, D-PHASE domain, 12h, 10mm
2007
--> forecast range
--> B
SS
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8 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
COSMO-LEPS Verification
ROC area, JJA, D-PHASE domain, 12h, 10mm
--> forecast range
--> R
OC
are
a
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9 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Ensemble System - biases
• COSMO-LEPS reforecasts• 30 yrs for each day
--> Correct for systematic model errors (spatial & temporal) --> Calibrate over the whole model domain --> Increase the skill (reliability) of the forecast --> Infer on extremity of the forecast
• Courtesy Felix Fundel, MeteoSwiss & NCCR Climate
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10 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
New warning index:Probability to exceed a Return Period, PRP
Approach:- Use the model climatology to find a return level for a certain return period (for each grid point)- Find number of forecasts exceeding the return level- Give a probability to exceed the return level/period (PRP)(- Use Extreme Value Aanalysis for very rare events (e.g. fit of a GPD))
Syntax:PRPx = Probab. to exceed an event occurring with a return period according to the x-quantile
Example:PRP0.8 = event occurs every 5th day
COSMO-LEPS reforecast
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14 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Verification
Verification of the PRPx
Domain SwitzerlandVerification on CLEPS 10km x 10km gridPRPx from observations necessary
Compare uncalibrated to calibrated PRPx
• 24h total precipitation 1971-2000• >440 stations in Switzerland• interpolated on CLEPS grid• at least 3 Stations/grid point• search radius 2-4 grid points• distance weighting
Observation Climatology
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15 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Verification
Relative improvement
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16 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Verification
Relative improvement
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17 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Verification
Relative improvement
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18 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
What can be done?
• Compare different high-resolution models• Example: Radar data composit over Switzerland• Summer (JJA) 2007• Courtesy Felix Ament, MeteoSwiss
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19 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Verification of precipitation amountSwitzerland, summer (JJA)
Individual warning region, summer (JJA)
Individual warning region, 3h resolution, summer (JJA)
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20 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Warngings – yellow level(yellow = frequency 10x per year)
Warning frequency 0.91
Probability to correctly warn (hit rate) 51%
False alarm ratio 45%
and
but
COSMO-2
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21 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
What can be done?
• Investigate properties of ensemble systems @ small scales
• Single model vs. multi model--> ‚micro PEPS‘ (Michael Denhard, DWD)
• Initial perturbations--> lagged ensembles--> physical perturbation--> spread-skill relations
• Predictability (convection)
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22 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
What can be done?
• All the hydrological components.....
Countesy S. Jaun ETHZ
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23 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim , DMathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Summary
• Lots of possibilities Let‘s just do it!