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Prepare for Battle
Darryl ConroyMay 2012
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General Advice Warning
• This advice has been prepared without taking into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. For that reason, before acting on the advice you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs.
• Where the advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product, you should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement relating to the product and consider the Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision about whether to acquire the product.
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Wall of Worry
Recession unemployment interest rates
mining boom competition Sales
government Fly-in/Fly-out House Prices
regulation sovereign debt inflation
Climate Change profits Tourism COSTSCarbon Tax Reserve Bank $A
Red Tape
Europe currency China 3
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20 Years of Growth
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Crises are Common
5Source: Reinhart & Rogoff
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Sunshine Coast Economy
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• $10 billion • Doubled in 10 years• 34,500 businesses
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Sunny Coast
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4.1%
95.9%
Economic Growth(GDP)
Sunshine Coast
Queensland
Sunshine Coast Queensland5.25%
5.50%
5.75%
6.00%
6.25%
Unemployment Rate
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Sunny Coast EconomyBig Five
1. Professional & Technical Services2. Food & Accommodation3. Retail Trade4. IT & Telecoms5. Manufacturing
Total 55%
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Then & Now
Last Decade
• Tourism• Construction• Retail
Next Decade
• Health• Education• Communication• Clean ‘n’ Green• Aviation• Creative Industry
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Business Survey - Constraints
1. Rising Overheads & Costs (53%)2. Price Pressures from Customers (43%)3. Price Pressures from Competitors
(39%)4. Declining Customer Base (37%)5. Global / National Economy (35%)
Respondents 2,71910
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Oil Prices…
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All About Resources
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Feb-92
Nov-92
Aug-93
May-
94
Feb-95
Nov-95
Aug-96
May-
97
Feb-98
Nov-98
Aug-99
May-
00
Feb-01
Nov-01
Aug-02
May-
03
Feb-04
Nov-04
Aug-05
May-
06
Feb-07
Nov-07
Aug-08
May-
09
Feb-10
Nov-10
Aug-11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Source: Indexmundi.com
Which Commodity ?
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Economy Transforms
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Mining Drags
• Capital• Labour• Infrastructure
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Sunshine Coast Tourism
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Visitors Change
Domestic 5%
International 17%
Total 3%
Expenditure 2%
Source: Tourism Queensland
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Tourists Go Offshore
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The Game has Changed !
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Just Borrow More ?
“ The British government has run
out of money because all the
money was spent in the good years.”
~ George Osborne
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Behaviours Change
1. Consumers – Cautious & Saving
2. Business – Uncertain & Tightening
3. Government – Austerity & Surpluses
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Business Squeeze
Costs Rising & Sales Falling...
Volume driven business to struggle
v
Margin driven business to prosper
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Consequences…
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A Tale of Two Cities
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Port Headland Donga Parisian Chateau
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Housing Sector
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Interest Rates
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1/8/
90
1/3/
91
1/10
/91
1/5/
92
1/12
/92
1/7/
93
1/2/
94
1/9/
94
1/4/
95
1/11
/95
1/6/
96
1/1/
97
1/8/
97
1/3/
98
1/10
/98
1/5/
99
1/12
/99
1/7/
00
1/2/
01
1/9/
01
1/4/
02
1/11
/02
1/6/
03
1/1/
04
1/8/
04
1/3/
05
1/10
/05
1/5/
06
1/12
/06
1/7/
07
1/2/
08
1/9/
08
1/4/
09
1/11
/09
1/6/
10
1/1/
11
1/8/
110.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00Official Cash Rate
Source: RBA
Markets pricing a 3% Cash Rate
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Fixed Rates Already Low
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Carbon Tax
60 days to go
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Business Impact
Big Unknown…
1. Initial Indirect Impact2. Business Inflation3. Long Term Contracts (legal)
Demographic Risk – fixed incomes
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Review Your Business
1. Conduct an Energy Audit2. Carbon Calculators (online)3. Engage Customers
GET INVOLVED !!!
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