Dan Borchert and Roger Dan Borchert and Roger MagareyMagarey
NCSU/CPHST/PERALNCSU/CPHST/PERAL
NAPPFASTNAPPFASTNorth Carolina State
UniversityAPHIS Plant Pest ForecAST System
History of NAPPFASTHistory of NAPPFAST Created in response to recommendations Created in response to recommendations
from Safeguarding American Plant from Safeguarding American Plant Resources Review of PPQResources Review of PPQ
Designed to predict potential Designed to predict potential establishment of invasive pest species: establishment of invasive pest species: used for risk analysis and to aid CAPS used for risk analysis and to aid CAPS survey and detection effortssurvey and detection efforts
Developed through an APHIS and NCSU Developed through an APHIS and NCSU cooperative agreement- cooperative agreement- Funded by Funded by CAPS ProgramCAPS Program
NAPPFAST NAPPFAST
Uses generic degree day, infection Uses generic degree day, infection and disease models to examine the and disease models to examine the probability of occurrence of plant pest probability of occurrence of plant pest speciesspecies
Models linked through internet Models linked through internet graphical user interface to 30 year graphical user interface to 30 year national climate database (ZedX Inc.)national climate database (ZedX Inc.)
Worldwide climate database to be Worldwide climate database to be established in 2004established in 2004
Degree Day Background Degree Day Background PrimerPrimer
““Phenology and development of most Phenology and development of most organisms follow a temperature organisms follow a temperature dependent time scale” (Allen 1976)dependent time scale” (Allen 1976)
Attempts to integrate temperature Attempts to integrate temperature and time started 250 + years ago and time started 250 + years ago
Development is widely believed to Development is widely believed to follow a sigmoid shapefollow a sigmoid shape
Dev.
Tem
p.
Degree Day Background Degree Day Background Primer Primer
Organisms have base developmental Organisms have base developmental temperature- temperature- minimum temperature minimum temperature below which no development occursbelow which no development occurs
Organisms have set number of units to Organisms have set number of units to complete development - physiological complete development - physiological time: measured in developmental time: measured in developmental units (DU) or degree days (DD) units (DU) or degree days (DD)
Parameters established from lab or Parameters established from lab or field studiesfield studies
Degree Day Background Degree Day Background PrimerPrimer
Example: Example: Ima pesta Ima pesta
base temperature 10 Cbase temperature 10 C
requires 365 DD to complete requires 365 DD to complete developmentdevelopment
(egg, larvae, pupae, adult to egg)(egg, larvae, pupae, adult to egg)
Degree days are typically calculated from Degree days are typically calculated from average of high and low temperature for average of high and low temperature for a 24 hour period above the base a 24 hour period above the base temperaturetemperature
Degree Day Background Degree Day Background PrimerPrimer
Ima pesta Ima pesta base temperature 10 C base temperature 10 C 365 DD for development365 DD for development
If average daily temp was 11C: 1 DD (11-10) If average daily temp was 11C: 1 DD (11-10) is accumulated and it would take 365 days is accumulated and it would take 365 days at that temperature to complete at that temperature to complete developmentdevelopment
If average daily temp was 20C: 10 DD (20-If average daily temp was 20C: 10 DD (20-10) are accumulated and it would take 10) are accumulated and it would take 36.5 days at that temperature to complete 36.5 days at that temperature to complete developmentdevelopment
Degree Day Background Degree Day Background PrimerPrimer
Estimation of Estimation of accumulated DD is accumulated DD is simple in simple in controlled controlled environment, but environment, but becomes more becomes more complicated in complicated in nature as nature as temperature temperature fluctuations occurfluctuations occur
Graph from UC Davis IPM website
What does this mean to What does this mean to me?me?
Through the use of Through the use of degree day models degree day models we can predict the we can predict the occurrence of pests occurrence of pests or their phenologyor their phenology
More More effective/efficient effective/efficient timing of timing of scouting/trapping scouting/trapping for particular stage for particular stage of interestof interest
Helicoverpa armigera Helicoverpa armigera Old world bollwormOld world bollworm
Highly polyphagous pest- corn, Highly polyphagous pest- corn, cotton, citrus, tomatoes and tobaccocotton, citrus, tomatoes and tobacco
Intercepted numerous times in Intercepted numerous times in inspections 280 ± 12 per year, inspections 280 ± 12 per year, 4,431 since 1985 (52 % JFK airport)4,431 since 1985 (52 % JFK airport)
Pictures from CAB , 2003
P. japonica P. japonica general general informationinformation
Univoltine- one generation per yearUnivoltine- one generation per year Overwinters typically as a third instar Overwinters typically as a third instar
larvaelarvae
Model ParametersModel Parameters
Japanese BeetleJapanese Beetle
StageStageDD in DD in
stagestageFirst First
entryentrysecond second
entryentry
Overwintering Overwintering stagestage 3rd instar3rd instar 400400 00 400400
PupaePupae 124124 401401 525525
Low 10 CLow 10 C AdultAdult 117117 526526 643643
Upper 34 Upper 34 CC egg egg 140140 644644 784784
first instarfirst instar 222222 785785 10071007
Second Second instarinstar 419419 10081008 14271427
third instarthird instar 720720 14281428
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 0 66
6 6 1212
12 12 1818
18 18 2424
24 24 3030
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 0 66
6 6 1212
12 12 1818
18 18 2424
24 24 3030
Adult beetles begin to emerge in central NC 3rd week in May (Fleming 1972)
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 0 66
6 6 1212
12 12 1818
18 18 2424
24 24 3030
Beetles appear in central Virginia in last week of May- first week of June.(Fleming 1972)
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 0 66
6 6 1212
12 12 1818
18 18 2424
24 24 3030
Mountainous Eastern TN beetles appear first week of June (Fleming 1972)
Beetles appear in central Virginia in last week of May- first week of June.(Fleming 1972)
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 0 66
6 6 1212
12 12 1818
18 18 2424
24 24 3030
Adult beetles begin to emerge in Maryland & Delaware mid June (Fleming 1972)
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 0 66
6 6 1212
12 12 1818
18 18 2424
24 24 3030
Adult beetles begin to emerge in Southern NJ and Southeastern PA in 3rd week of June (Fleming 1972)
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 0 66
6 6 1212
12 12 1818
18 18 2424
24 24 3030
Emergence in mountainous regions of NJ and PA 1-2 weeks later (Fleming 1972)
Emergence in Southeastern NY, CT, RI and Southern MA in last week of June (Fleming 1972)
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 0 66
6 6 1212
12 12 1818
18 18 2424
24 24 3030
Emergence begins in Southern NH and VT in first week of July (Fleming 1972)
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 0 66
6 6 1212
12 12 1818
18 18 2424
24 24 3030
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 0 66
6 6 1212
12 12 1818
18 18 2424
24 24 3030
Background PrimerBackground Primer
Plant pathologist Plant pathologist describe describe interactions interactions between between pathogen, host pathogen, host and and environmental environmental conditions as the conditions as the disease triangle. disease triangle.
Infection is often the rate limiting step in Infection is often the rate limiting step in an epidemic because it requires moisture an epidemic because it requires moisture which is often limited in terrestrial which is often limited in terrestrial environmentsenvironments
Infection can be modeled by a temperature Infection can be modeled by a temperature /moisture response function - a /moisture response function - a mathematical function that describes the mathematical function that describes the response of an organism to temperature response of an organism to temperature and moistureand moisture
Generic infection modelGeneric infection model
ParametersParameters
TTminmin = Min. temperature for infection, = Min. temperature for infection, ooC,C,
TTmaxmax = Max. temperature for infection, = Max. temperature for infection, ooC,C,
TTopt opt = Opt. temperature for infection, = Opt. temperature for infection, ooC,C,
WWmin min = Minimum wetness duration = Minimum wetness duration requirement, h requirement, h
Parameters established in laboratory studiesParameters established in laboratory studies
Temperature response Temperature response functionfunction
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Tem
pera
ture
Res
pons
e
Temperature C
High ToptLow Topt
Temperature moisture Temperature moisture response functionresponse function
Low Topt
High Wmin
High Topt
Low Wmin
Examples of pathogensExamples of pathogens
Sudden Oak Death, Sudden Oak Death, Phytophthora ramorumPhytophthora ramorum
Fungal disease in Fungal disease in cool wet weathercool wet weather..
Currently in Currently in Western US: Western US: California and California and OregonOregon
Source Ventana Wilderness Society
Model ParametersModel Parameters
Temperature requirement Temperature requirement
3-28 C, 20 C optimum (Werres, 2001; 3-28 C, 20 C optimum (Werres, 2001; Orlikowski, 2002)Orlikowski, 2002)..
Moisture requirement Moisture requirement
12 hours for zoospore infection 12 hours for zoospore infection (Huberli,2003)(Huberli,2003)
Model description Model description
Unpublished infection model uses Unpublished infection model uses Wang et al. (1998 ) temperature response Wang et al. (1998 ) temperature response function scaled to a wetness duration function scaled to a wetness duration requirementrequirement..
Sudden Oak
Death
Infection
January 1
Wetness > 12 h
Infection
Sudden Oak
Death
April 1
Wetness > 12 hWetness > 12 h
Infection
Sudden Oak
Death
Infection
July 1
Wetness > 12 h
Infection
Sudden Oak
Death
Infection
October 1
Wetness > 12 h
Infection
Sudden Oak
Death
Infection > 30 days
Year
Wetness > 12 h
Sudden Oak
Death
Infection > 60 days
Year
Wetness > 12 h
Smith, USDA-FS
Smith, USDA-FS
Infection > 60 days
SOD SummarySOD Summary ‘‘Seasonal snapshots’ show relative Seasonal snapshots’ show relative
infection risk for different locations and infection risk for different locations and seasons. seasons.
Maps need interpretation with respect to Maps need interpretation with respect to forest health and species composition.forest health and species composition.
The methodology provides an alternative The methodology provides an alternative approach to the Smith method.approach to the Smith method.
Once international data becomes available Once international data becomes available it may be possible to pursue additional it may be possible to pursue additional model validation. model validation.
Generic Disease Model Generic Disease Model
Allows for construction of many different Allows for construction of many different models using simple logical and models using simple logical and mathematical equations: mathematical equations:
(X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), (X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.)X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.)
Some examples used to date are: Some examples used to date are: temperature exclusions (high and or low temperature exclusions (high and or low lethal temperatures), frost free days, and lethal temperatures), frost free days, and emergence dates emergence dates
Pine Shoot Beetle (PSB), Pine Shoot Beetle (PSB), Tomicus piniperdaTomicus piniperda
Overwinters as adult, Overwinters as adult, can emerge as soon can emerge as soon as temperatures as temperatures reach 50-54 F reach 50-54 F
Emerges over a Emerges over a relatively short period relatively short period of timeof time
Important to have Important to have traps out in time but traps out in time but not too earlynot too early
http://www.ncrs.fs.fed.us/4401/focus/climatology/tomicus/
0 0 66
6 6 11
22
1122
11
88
1188
22
44
2244
33
00
Frequency of Occurrence (30 year)
> 40 F
> 45 F
> 50 F
January 1-15
PSB
Benefits of NAPPFASTBenefits of NAPPFAST Ability to create Ability to create
desired models and desired models and rapidly provide rapidly provide information for local information for local or nationwide areas: or nationwide areas: as quick as a few as quick as a few hourshours
Relatively small Relatively small amount of information amount of information required to construct required to construct modelsmodels
A tool to assist CAPS A tool to assist CAPS personnelpersonnel
Additional Map FeaturesAdditional Map Features
Maps are geo-Maps are geo-referenced and can referenced and can be exported into be exported into ArcGIS for further ArcGIS for further customizationcustomization
Occ. of 1st gen. adult H. armigera June 1-7 Major growing areas of corn, tomatoes, cotton and tobacco
+
Union of occurrence and crops
Map featuresMap features Zoomable after double Zoomable after double
click enlargementclick enlargement
Ability to overlay Ability to overlay major crop production major crop production informationinformation
((O. melanopusO. melanopus adult and adult and minor spring wheat minor spring wheat April 1-7)April 1-7)
Models Completed to Models Completed to Date*Date*
InsectsInsects Japanese BeetleJapanese Beetle Cereal Leaf BeetleCereal Leaf Beetle Old World BollwormOld World Bollworm European Grapevine European Grapevine
Moth Moth Leek MothLeek Moth Swede MidgeSwede Midge False Codling Moth False Codling Moth
DiseasesDiseases Wheat RustWheat Rust Downy mildew of Downy mildew of
corncorn Sweet Orange Sweet Orange
ScabScab Citrus black spotCitrus black spot Potato wartPotato wart Sudden Oak Death Sudden Oak Death
* Validation of model output currently being conducted
SummarySummary
NAPPFAST can provide information (maps NAPPFAST can provide information (maps and graphs) to aid in survey and detection and graphs) to aid in survey and detection for CAPSfor CAPS
Output information is customizable for end Output information is customizable for end useruser
A relatively new system – operational but A relatively new system – operational but developing developing
Feedback needed for system improvements, Feedback needed for system improvements, development and maximum utilizationdevelopment and maximum utilization
Interested in Learning Interested in Learning More?More?
Hands on Demonstration Hands on Demonstration session of session of NAPPFASTNAPPFAST
Wednesday, December 3:Wednesday, December 3:
4:30-6:30 pm4:30-6:30 pm
Location TBALocation TBA
www.nappfast.orgwww.nappfast.org
Site contains information on GIS databases, weather data collection, case studies of modeling, Examples of pests examined and references
Project CooperatorsProject Cooperators
CPHSTCPHSTGlenn FowlerGlenn Fowler
Dan FieselmannDan Fieselmann
Woody BaileyWoody Bailey
NCSUNCSUTurner SuttonTurner Sutton
Charles ThayerCharles Thayer
Zed X Inc.
Joe RussoAaron Hunt
Matt Dedmon
Comments, Suggestions Comments, Suggestions and Questionsand Questions
Dr. Roger MagareyDr. Roger [email protected]@aphis.usda.govgov
919-513-5074919-513-5074
1017 Main Campus Dr1017 Main Campus Dr
Suite 1550 Suite 1550
Raleigh, NC 27606Raleigh, NC 27606
Dr. Dan BorchertDr. Dan [email protected]@aphis.usda.govusda.gov
919-513-7051919-513-7051
1017 Main Campus Dr1017 Main Campus Dr
Suite 1550 Suite 1550
Raleigh, NC 27606Raleigh, NC 27606