POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org
Current Population Situation and Prospects for Sub-Saharan AfricaCarl Haub [email protected]
Senior Demographer
Population Reference Bureau
Washington, DC
German Association for the United Nations
Berlin, 13 September 2010
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World Population
1900
1.6Billion
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World Population
2000
6.1Billion
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population, 1950 to 2050 Projected
World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Billions
IF the total fertility rate in 2050 has declined to 2.6 lifetime births per woman, down from 5.2 today.
1.8
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
4,157
865585
344739
5,424
1,831
729471
720
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica
LatinAmerica/Carib.
North America Europe
2010
2050
Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet
Population of the World’s Regions, 2010 and 2050 Projected
Millions
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
1,267
966
144 127
-19
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica
LatinAmerica/Carib.
North America Europe
Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet
Projected Growth of World Regional Populations, 2010 to 2050
Millions
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
70 50 30 10 10 30 50 70
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Females
Fewer and Fewer Potential Parents = Unprecedented Aging:Europe by Age and Sex, 2010
Age
Millions
Males
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
70 50 30 10 10 30 50 70
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Females
Youthful Population = Large Potential Population Growth:Sub-Saharan Africa by Age and Sex, 2010
Age
Millions
Males
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant
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United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.
Africa’s Population by Region, 1950 to 2050 Projected
World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0Billions
Eastern Africa
Western Africa
Northern Africa
Middle Africa
Southern Africa
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Eastern Africa39%
Middle Africa16%
Western Africa38%
Southern Africa
7%
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population by Region, 2010
865 Million
Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Eastern Africa40%
Middle Africa17%
Southern Africa
4%
Western Africa39%
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population by Region, 2050 Projected
1.83 Billion
Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet
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The Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Gesamtfruchtbarkeitsrateoder
Zusammengefasste Geburtenzifferoder
Durchschnittliche Kinderzahl je Frau
The TFR is the average number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant.
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Ethiopia Germany
Population 2010 (millions) 85 82
Population 2050 (millions) 174 72
Lifetime Births per Woman 5.4 1.3
Annual Number of Births 3,280,000 648,000
Percent of Population Below Age 15 44 14
Percent of Population Age 65+ 3 20
Life Expectancy at Birth 55 80
Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births 77 3.5
Annual Number of Infant Deaths 250,000 2,250
GNI PPP per capita, 2008 US$ 870 US$ 35,940
The “Demographic Divide”
The Example of Ethiopia and Germany
2010 World Population Data Sheet
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
ca. 1980 ca. 2010
Western Africa 46 43
Middle Africa 43 46
Eastern Africa 46 44
Northern Africa 44 33
Southern Africa 42 32
India 41 32
China 32 18
1980 and 2010 World Population Data Sheets of the Population Reference Bureau
Population Under Age 15 (Percent)
1980 and 2010
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Population projections are scenarios: “If this happens, then that will happen.”
They are not forecasts or predictions.
What ARE Population Projections?
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The commonly-used United Nations Medium Variant projection assumes that birth rates will decline so that all developing countries will eventually average a European-like 1.85 children per woman.
That assumption is, in turn, dependent upon the additional assumption that the use of family planning will rise to the same level as that in Europe and North America. The UN is very careful to point that out.
How Are Projections Made?
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Fertility Assumptions: The Example of Uganda
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050
Medium Assumption
High Assumption
Constant Fertility Assumption
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision
Children per woman (TFR)
103 Million
91 Million
152 Million
34 Million
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7.9
7.16.8 6.7
7.46.9 6.8
5.3
6.7
7.4
6.5
4.0
5.6
6.2
5.75.4
2.4 2.4
Nig
er
Uganda
Ghana
Tanza
nia
Zambia
Nig
eria
Ethio
pia
South A
fric
a
Ban
gladesh
1975
ca. 2010
Total Fertility Rate, Selected African Countries and Bangladesh,1975 and ca. 2010
Lifetime Children per woman
United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision and 2010 World Population Data Sheet
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Childbearing in Sub-Saharan Africa Begins at a Young AgeAge-specific Fertility Rates, 2005-2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Age of mother
sub-Saharan Africa
Europe
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision
Births per 1,000 women in each age group
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Bangladesh
U.S.
Lifetime children per woman
Fertility Decline in Bangladesh and the United States, 1800 - 2006Two Very Different Histories
Population Reference Bureau, NCHS, DHS surveys
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Chad
Zimbabwe
Uganda
South Africa
Malawi
Fertility Decline in Africa as Reported in Surveys
Lifetime children per woman
Demographic and Health Surveys and Statistics South Africa
Circles indicate survey years
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Niger
Ghana
Zambia
Nigeria
Lifetime children per woman
Demographic and Health Surveys, Statistics South Africa, 2007 Ghana Maternal Health Survey Note: Gray circles indicate a census estimate
Fertility Decline in Africa as Reported in Surveys - con’t
Circles indicate survey years
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
4.8
3.94.1
4.34.0
5.95.7
5.14.9
5.5
4.7 4.64.8
4.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)
How Many Children Do Women Say is “Ideal?”
Kenya Madagascar Ghana
Latest DHS total fertility rate in red
4.6 4.8 4.0
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6.8
5.65.1 5.3
6.25.7
5.1 5.1
8.5 8.59.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Demographic and Health Surveys
How Many Children Do Women Say is “Ideal?” – con’t
Uganda Zambia Niger
6.5 6.2 7.1Latest DHS total fertility rate in red
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
42.2
14.4
5.1
13.3
7.810.1
4.2 3.5 3.4
58.4
32.729.2
20.017.9 16.6
13.39.7
6.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Zimbabwe Zambia Madagascar Tanzania Uganda Ghana Burkina Faso Nigeria Benin
early/mid-1990s
ca. 2005-2008
Demographic and Health Surveys and 2006 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) of Burkina Faso
Reported Use of Modern Contraception (Clinic and Supply Methods) Early/mid-1990s and Most Recent
TFRs= 4.3/3.8 6.1/6.2 6.1/4.8 5.8/4.7 6.9/6.7 5.2/4.0 6.5/6.0
% of Married women, ages 15-49 using a modern method
5.7/5.7 6.0/5.7
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
1.2
9.4
13.2
17.1
40.9
3.4
8.410.5
13.5
35.8
3.9
8.4
11.613.9
37.8
2.24.4 3.9
9.7
20.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Method failure To becomepregnant
Side effects,health
Other reasons All reasons
Ethiopia 2005
Malawi 2004
Tanzania 2004-05
Zimbabwe 2005-06
Demographic and Health Surveys
Reasons for Discontinuation of Contraceptive Use
Percent of users discontinuing within 12 months
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
6
1
11
3
10
1 1
10
1
27
21
45
221
13
00 01
0
5
12
0
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
EasternAfrica
Middle Africa SouthernAfrica
WesternAfrica
Pill
IUD
Injection
Condom
Female sterilization
Male sterilization
Traditional methods
Demographic and Health Surveys
Family Planning Use by Method, Married/in-Union Women, Ages 15-49
Percent using
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
6 6 6 6
5 5 5
4 4
3 3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Niger
ia 2
008
Niger
200
6
Mal
i 200
6
Congo DR 20
07
Zambia
2007
Tanza
nia 2
004-
05
Ethio
pia
2005
Mal
awi 2
004
Ghana 20
08
Zimbab
we 200
5-06
Kenya 2
008-0
9
Demographic and Health Surveys
With How Many Living Children Do Women Say They Wish to Stop Childbearing?
TFR= 5.7 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.2 5.7 5.4 6.0 4.0 3.8 4.6
+ + + +
Number of children when women who wish to stop childbearing reaches 50 percent
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
40.637.9
35.333.8
31.2
26.524.4
21.820.2
15.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Demographic and Health Surveys
“Unmet Need” for Family Planning Appears to Show a Desire to Space or Limit Births
TFR= 6.7 6.1 4.0 5.4 6.6 6.2 6.3
Percent of married/in-union women, ages 15-49
5.7 5.7 7.0
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
31.733.0 34.0
13.7
41.843.7
60.3
19.0 20.1
3.1
49.346.4
M ainly wife Jointly M ainly husband
Own health careLarge purchasesDaily purchasesNumber of children
Wives’ Opinion on Who Should Make Household Decisions, Zambia 2007
Percent
Demographic and Health Survey
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
57.155.3
49.047.3 46.3
42.4 41.9
5.7
Ghana
Moz
ambiq
ueM
ali
Angola
Liber
ia
Sierra
Leo
ne
Uganda
Ethio
pia
In Sub-Saharan Africa, Only about Half or Less of Women Receive SkilledAssistance at BirthPercent with skilled assistance
United Nations, The Millennium Development Goals Database
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
21.5
15.013.5
7.1
4.1
15.6
6.7 6.24.7
7.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Zambia Kenya Central Af. Rep. Cote d'Ivoire Uganda
Before survey
After survey
UNAIDS and Demographic and Health Surveys
HIV Prevalence Before and After Nationally-representative Surveys Were Taken, Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-2006
Percent of adult population
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
-30
-7-1
-129
-20
-3
-140.0
-120.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
Africa Asia Latin Amer./Carib.
2010
2050
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision
The Human Cost of HIV: Projected Impact of HIV/AIDS on Population Size as Projected in 2008
Difference between the UN Medium Variant projection with HIV and without HIV
Millions
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
-267
-30
-5
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
Africa Asia Latin Amer./Carib.
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision
The Human Cost of HIV: Projected Impact of HIV/AIDS on Population Size as Projected in 2000
Difference between the UN Medium Variant projection with HIV and without HIV
Millions
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
1950
-195
5
1955
-196
0
1960
-196
5
1965
-197
0
1970
-197
5
1975
-198
0
1980
-198
5
1985
-199
0
1990
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
5
2005
-201
0
2010
-201
5
2015
-202
0
2020
-202
5
2025
-203
0
2030
-203
5
2035
-204
0
2040
-204
5
2045
-205
0
Sub-Saharan Africa
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Somalia
Zimbabwe
Kenya
Deaths under 1 year of age per 1,000 births
Improvements in Infant Mortality, Past and Projected, 1950 - 2050
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
85.0
41.839.0
48.042.7 41.5
28.3
92.0
46.641.7
53.4
44.8 43.9
28.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Germany sub-SaharanAfrica
Nigeria Ethiopia Uganda Botswana Swaziland
Males
Females
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant
Survival from Birth to Age 65 Is Low in Africa2005-2010 Life Tables, (lx function)
Percent surviving
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
90.8
64.059.9
68.5 65.8
58.3
44.1
95.0
69.663.5
74.9 73.7
60.4
46.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Germany sub-SaharanAfrica
Nigeria Ethiopia Uganda Botswana Swaziland
Males
Females
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant
Survival from Birth to Age 65 Is Low in AfricaProjected to 2045-2050, Life Tables (lx function)
Percent surviving
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
51
26
144
58
31
184
0 50 100 150 200
Pop. <$1.25 a day
Pop. undernourished (%)
Under 5 mortality
United Nations, The Millennium Development Goals Report 2010
Slow Progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
(1990)
(2005)
(1990-92)
(2005-07)
(1990)
(2008)
Note: Dark line =
2015 MDG Goal
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
4
24
15
3
16
27
1
10
37
1
9
38
Too low Satisfactory Too high
1976198619962009
Reported Government View on the Level of the Birth Rate,Sub-Saharan Africa, 1976 - 2009
Number of Countries
United Nations Population Division, World Population Policies, 2009
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Fertility24. Total fertility rate has persistently remained high at 6.9 children per woman in 2001 and 6.7 in 2006. This is mainly due to cultural and religious beliefs and preference for large families as the source of sustenance especially during oldage. This situation has created a large dependent population, and engendered conditions not favourable for women's reproductive health. Urbanisation, education, higher income and improved decision making within the household are associated with reduced fertility.
Section 24, National Population Policy for Social Transformation and Sustainable Development, Uganda Population Secretariat, 2008