Cross-country paper on the theme of Environment
World Conference on South Asia: Democracy,
Sustainable Development and Peace
Regional Overview
Physical Features Social and Cultural Patterns Economy
Physical FeaturesPhysical Features
South Asia houses some of the world’s largest river systems
Fresh water: Most important natural resource shared between nations
Significant variation in spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall
Social and Cultural PatternsSocial and Cultural Patterns
Birthplace of popular socio-cultural groups, shelter for immigrants.
Diversity in terms of religion, language, ethnicity, traditions, values, culture and the way of life.
Out of the 7 Nations, two are predominantly Hindu, four are predominantly Muslim, two are predominantly Buddhist
The diversity demands a multifaceted approach to look at development and the various challenges
EconomyEconomy
Figure: share of different sector on South Asian economy and their growth rate
Source: ADB 2010
Key Environmental Issues
Land Degradation Water Stress
Transboundary water resources management
Land DegradationLand Degradation
Country Sq kilomete
rs
% Territor
y
% Global
degrading area
% Total populatio
n
Affected people
Afghanistan
7656 1.17 0.025 2.56 671770
Bangladesh
68422 47.52 0.199 49.12 72728775
Bhutan 27011 57.47 0.073 54.99 1332662
India 592498 18.02 1.751 16.50 177437809
Nepal 54704 38.85 0.182 48.93 13332932
Pakistan 20644 2.57 0.073 3.58 5838072
Sri Lanka 21057 32.09 0.060 25.62 4788637
Source: Bai ZG 2008
Statistics of land degradation for the south Asian countries
Land DegradationLand Degradation Primary Drivers:
Poor Agricultural Practices: intensive use of chemical fertilizers, non-arable agriculture, increasing livestock population
Increase in Irrigation: leads to water logging and top soil erosion and over extraction of water renders the land in the downstream saline
Poor policy regime: imposition of taxes/subsidies has facilitated land degradation at certain places
Industrialization and deforestation
Water StressWater Stress
Indicators GBM Basi
n
Indus Basi
n
Available water resources (m3 per capita per year) 3473 1329
Total water use (billion m3 per year) 304 257
Available Water resources (billion m3 per year) 2025 287
Access to Improved Source of Drinking Water (AISDW) (percent of population)
83 87
Wastewater volume (billion m3 per year) 92.0 54.7
Vegetation cover (percent of basin area) 20.0 39.1
GDP (PPP) US$ per capita 1807 1002
Population (million people) 582.9 215.8
Access to Improved Sanitation Facility (AISF) (percent of population)
40.0 51.8Source: Compiled from MS Babel, S M Wahid 2009
Statistics for water resources for the GBM and Indus basins
Transboundary water resources management
Issues in the GBM Basin can be divided into three broad categories: sharing of river waters cooperative development of water resources sharing of data and information on common rivers
to facilitate flood forecasting and water quality control
Conflicting interests must be resolved by the integrated approach towards the management of transboundary water resources
Climate Change and South Asia
Observed Climate Change Future Impacts
Observed Climate Change
Country Change in temperature Change in precipitation
Bangladesh
Increasing trend of about 1oC in May and 0.5 oC in November from 1985 to 1998
Decadal rain anomalies above long term averages since 1960s
India 0.68 oC increase per century with increasing trends in annual mean temperature and warming more pronounced during post monsoon and winter
Increase in extreme rains in north-west during summer monsoon in recent decades and lower number of rainy days along east cost.
Nepal 0.09 oC increase per year in Himalayas and 0.04 oC in Terai region with more in winter
No distinct long-term trends in precipitation records for 1948-1994
Pakistan 0.6-1.0 oC increase in mean temperature in coastal areas since early 1900s
10-15% decrease in coastal belt and hyper arid plains and increase in summer and winter precipitation over the last 40 years in northern Pakistan
Sri Lanka 0.016 oC increase per year between 1961 to 90 over entire country and 2 oC increase per year in central highlands
An increase trend in February and decrease trend in JuneSource: Cruz et al. 2007
Future Impacts
Warming would be significant in Himalayan Highlands including the Tibetan Plateau and arid regions of Asia (IPCC 2007 )
Increase in occurrence of extreme weather events is projected in South Asia (Lal 2003)
Inter-annual variability of daily precipitation would increase in the Asian summer monsoon (Lal et al. 2000; Giorgi and Bi 2005).
By 2050, the annual runoff in the Brahmaputra is projected to decline by 14 percent and the Indus by 27 percent (IPCC 2001).
Challenges in key sectors
Water Agriculture and Food Security Health Social Issues including
population dislocation
Water The key challenge would be to balance variable
water supplies with accelerating water demands.
Country Climate-change Priorities Scale and Magnitude
Priority Focus Areas
Afghanistan Glacier melting in the Himalayas
Regional Himalayan Hindu Kush
Lake outburst Local to national Hill and mountain areas
Floods and droughts National to regional Helmand and Kabul basins
Bangladesh Floods National to regional Ganges, Brahmaputra, Meghna basins
Increase in natural disasters National to regional Coastal zones
Saltwater intrusion Local Coastal zones
Bhutan Glacier melting in the Himalayas
Regional Himalayan Hindu Kush
Lake outburst Local to national Hill and mountain areas
Floods National to regional Ganges tributary basins
Droughts Local to national Throughout
Water Resources in South Asia: Climate-change issue and Priority Areas
Contd….
Country Climate-change Priorities Scale and Magnitude
Priority Focus Areas
India Glacier melting in the Himalayas
Regional Himalayan Hindu Kush
Floods National to regional Ganges, Brahmaputra, Meghna basins
Droughts Local to national Throughout
Increase in natural disasters (cyclones)
National to regional Coastal zones
Saltwater intrusion Local Coastal zones
Maldives Increase in natural disasters (cyclones and sea-level surges); loss and land mass
Local to national Himalayan Hindu Kush
Nepal Glacier melting in the Himalayas
Regional and national
Himalayan Hindu Kush
Lake outburst Local to national Hill and mountain areas
Floods National to regional Ganges tributary basins
Droughts Local to national Throughout
Saltwater intrusion Local to provisional Coastline
Wetland desiccation and degradation
Local to national The Ramsar Sites
Water Resources in South Asia: Climate-change issue and Priority Areas (Contd.)
Contd….
Country Climate-change Priorities Scale and Magnitude
Priority Focus Areas
Pakistan Glacier melting in the Himalayas
Regional Himalayan Hindu Kush
Increased water scarcity and droughts
Local to national Indus basin
Saltwater intrusion Local Coastal zones
Sri Lanka Increase in natural disasters (cyclones and sea-level surges)
Local to national Coastal zones
Water Resources in South Asia: Climate-change issue and Priority Areas (Contd.)
Source: SARSDD 2009
Agriculture and Food Security The changing hydrological characteristics of the
extreme events will affect agricultural production Sea-level rise would trigger inundation and changes in
the sediment balance and salinity profile of coastal areas
The Terrai plains, which constitute 43% of the total cultivated land, would be severely impacted by recurring natural disasters.
The economy of Nepal where agriculture employs 80% of the population will be badly hit
Sri Lanka’s rice output would be reduced by 5.91% with a temperature increase of 0.5°C.
Agriculture and Food Security
Country Farm Area
(1,000ha)
Output per Hectare
(US$)
Output (US$ mil)
Afghanistan
7,827 313 2,448
Bangladesh 8,429 1,355 11,421
India 170,115 777 132,140
Nepal 3,294 728 2,399
Pakistan 22,120 856 18,935
Sri Lanka 1,916 1,808 3,465
Estimates of Climate change related Impacts onAgricultural Production by 2080
Source: Cline 2007
Health
Key determinants of health: clean air and water, disease vectors, and the availability of food would be impacted
Increase in the frequency of floods would have significant direct and induced health impacts.
Induced health impacts pose the greatest harm: major portions of South Asia have limited access to clean water and sanitation
Increases in diarrheal disease, cholera, dysentery, and typhoid are of specific concern (Morgan, O., M. Ahern, and S. Cairncross. 2005)
Social Issues including population dislocation Future changes in precipitation, sea level, glacial cover,
and incidence of extreme events could stall the progress made in achieving the MDGs
The rural poor whose livelihoods are based on agriculture will be directly impacted
Households dependent upon pastoral lands for livelihoods would be the worst hit
Climate change may render about 125 million migrants, comprising about 75 million from Bangladesh and the remaining from densely populated coastal regions as well as other vulnerable parts of India homeless by the end of this century (S.C. Rajan, 2008).
Social Issues including population dislocation
Area of LECZ
Population in LECZ
Urban Population in
LECZ
Fraction of Urban Population in LECZ in Cities
Exceeding 5(square
km)
Bangladesh
54,461 65,524,048 15,428,668 33%
India 81,805 63,188,208 31,515,286 58%
Pakistan 22,197 4,157,045 2,227,118 92%Source: http://sedac.ciesin.org, accessed on 27/12/2010
Summary of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) statistics for countries in South Asia
Devising a framework for regional Co-operation on Adaptation
Co-operation framework on environmental issues
Shortcomings Lessons to be learnt
Co-operation framework on environmental issues Three intergovernmental organizations:
South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) South Asia Cooperative Environment Programme (SACEP) International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
(ICIMOD)
Periodic meetings of the SAARC Environment Ministers have been held to enhance regional cooperation
Shortcomings
Environmental issues have occupied an important position in SAARC summits but no commensurate outcomes
Mutual differences between the member states was acknowledged during the 16th summit
Projects have been identified, but implementation is slow - visible outputs are yet to be seen from the Coastal Zone management Centre in Maldives (2005) and the Forestry centre in Bhutan (2008)
Lessons to be learnt
A clear strategy highlighting the possible areas of co-operation among the SAARC countries is required.
Measurable indicators to evaluate the goals should be initiated
The existing regional centres should ensure the completion of agreed initiatives
Initiatives should be made broad-based - professionals, the business community and the civil society must be included
Adaptation strategies for key sectors
Water Agriculture and Food
Security Health and Social
Development
Water Widening the knowledge base in terms of technology
and best practices TERI has been endorsed as the Knowledge Hub for Water
and Climate Change Adaptation in South Asia
Integrated water resource management (IWRM) Conjunctive use and management of surface and
groundwater The use of indigenous knowledge for water
management Risk Management capacity should be enhanced Improving Governance and facilitating Finance
Agriculture and Food Security Integration of land use policies with policies on
forest and water management Practicing Organic Agriculture Conserving Biodiversity National food security programmes should focus on
creating food grains buffer stock Strengthening food grain distribution Institutionalising regional food security programmes Formulation and implementation of appropriate
policies Improving Agricultural productivity
Health and Social Development
Activity Purpose
Awareness of the health implication of climate change
To improve policy and decision makers understanding of the implications of climate change and the need for strategic planning
Disease surveillance To improve government’s ability to detect and monitor injuries, environmental exposures, infectious diseases, and chronic diseases that are sensitive to climate change
Response capacity To improve the population-base public health awareness, interventions and health system capacity for climate-change sensitive issues and diseases
Assess current and future impact of climate change
To assess current health burden due to climate change and to project it into the future in order to inform policy directions
Engage in a Country and regional approach
To develop a plan with short-medium and long term country strategies and to integrate with regional strategies
Action Matrix for Climate Change in South Asia
Source: SARSDD 2009
References
ADB 2010Asia Development Outlook 2010Asian Development Bank
Bai ZG 2008Global assessment of land degradation and improvement. 1. Identification by remote sensing. Report 2008/01
Cruz RV, Harasawa H, Lal M, Wu S, Anokhin Y, Punsalmaa B, Honda Y, Jafari M, Li C, Huu N (2007) Asia. Climate change, 2007, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 469–506
Giorgi F, Bi X (2005) Regional changes in surface climate interannual variability for the 21st century from ensembles of global model simulations. Geophys Res Lett 32:L13701. doi:10.1029/2005GL023002
IPCC. 2001. Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2001. Summary for Policymakers. Wembley, United Kingdom, September 24–29.
IPCC 2007Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Quin D, Manning M, Chen X, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor HL, Miller M (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1–996
Contd…
Lal M, Meehl GA, Arblaster JM (2000) Simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its intraseasonal variability. Reg Environ Change 1:163–179
Lal M (2003) Global climate change: India’s monsoon and its variability.J Environ Stud Policy 6:1–34
Morgan, O., M. Ahern, and S. Cairncross. 2005. Revisiting the Tsunami: Health Consequences of Flooding.PLoS Medicine 2, no. 6: 491–93.
MS Babel, SM Wahid 2009Freshwater Under Threat South Asia: Vulnerability Assessment of Freshwater Resources to Environmental ChangeUNEP, AIT
SARSDD 2009South Asia: Shared Views on Development and Climate ChangeSouth Asia Region Sustainable Development Department – The World Bank
S.C. Rajan, 2008Climate Migrants in South Asia: Estimates and Solutions – A report by GreenpeaceGreenpeace India Society