CROP -TOTAL CLIMATE RISK COMPONENT
• From end to end- Land preparation, crop sowing – TO
Harvest and post harvest operations• Consider both
– Direct impact- by moisture stress, water logging and on Crop physiology
– Indirect impact – by triggering rapid increase of pests, diseases and vector populations that are already endemic.
• In any particular year a partiuclar combination of such ‘adverse events’ would occur
• It is possible to construct simple models for such climate impact by using – Existing literature– Expert knowledge of farmers, field researchers
Crop model Validation with observed yield
Optimal sowing window• Frequently asked question• No additional cost, but very high benefit for correct
choice but, high penalty for wrong choice• Need
– long term daily rainfall, – crop simulation model, – soil data, – crop management data
• Simple model on pest and diseases would be desirable (Indirect impact of climate)
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Wee
kly
aver
age
Rain
fall
(cm
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Sorghum
Pigeonpea upto February
Castor upto March
Minor Millets ( I, II)
Minor Millets (III, IV, V) upto January
Horsegram upto January
Sesamum / Horsegram / Cotton / Chillies / Cowpea / PearlMillet
Peanut
Horsegram
Cow pea / Horsegram / Greengram / Castor / Pigeonpea
Current Cropping System
TraditionalCropping System
Sorghum / Safflower / Niger / Castor / Pigeonpea / Peanut / Field bean
APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Recent shift in cropping patterns- Lack of experience of optimal sowing windows
Low chance of crop failure? – sow late
Best chances of High yields? – sow late
PUNTGRO- Year wise yield at different sowing dates
PUNTGRO- Year wise yield at different sowing dates
High chance of Moisture stress at Pod filling (60-85 days after sowing)
Low chance of Moisture stress at Pod filling (60-85 days after sowing)
Chance of leaf miner incidence v/s sowing date
Chance of Late leaf spot v/s sowing date
DO WE ALWAYS NEED CROP MODELS? CAN WE USE CLIMATOLOGY?
• Climatology of the location- can it be used for similar analysis?
• Use of climate variability information for ‘Package of practices– Karnataka, May to July 15th not further – Experience and crop simulation shows this to be “poor advice”– Generated on the basis of field experiments in Bangalore region-
with ‘bimodal rainfall pattern’
• Sowing late not followed because it has to be adopted in a large scale. Isolated cases will have pest and pathogen from the earlier crops
Simple model for Rainfed Groundnut At Anantpur- an example
Climate – Direct impact
Climate- indirect impact
TOTAL CLIMATE RISK FOR GROUNDNUT CROP
Validation of Model Prediction and Field data
