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FROM CRIME TO CRIME STATISTICS AND CRIME STATISTICS TO CRIME
INTELLIGENCE
FIGHTING THE CRIME WITH STATISTICS AND NOT FIGHTING THE STATISTICS.
CHRIS DE KOCK - INDEPENDENT CONSULTANT/ANALYST:
CRIME, VIOLENCE AND CROWD BEHAVIOUR.
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CRIME INCIDENT OCCUR
Ø A CRIME INCIDENT OCCUR DURING WHICH ONE OR VARIOUS SERIOUS CRIMES WERE COMMITTED.
Ø EXAMPLES: (A) HOUSE ROBBERY DURING WHICH ONE PERSON IS MURDERED AND ANOTHER VICTIM RAPED. (B) A VICTIM IS RAPED BY A FRIEND. (C) A FATHER SHOT HIS EX-WIFE AND TWO CHILDREN AND THEN HIMSELF.
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CRIME REPORTING
SOME CRIME INCIDENTS OR SOME OF THE CRIMES OCCURRING DURING INCIDENTS MAY NOT BE REPORTED TO THE POLICE. THERE ARE MANY REASONS FOR THIS, INTER ALIA :
§ DON’T THINK THAT ANYTHING CAN BE DONE.
§ NOT WORTH WHILE-CRIME/LOSS NOT SO SIGNIFICANT.
§ DON’T TRUST THE POLICE THEY ARE IN CAHOOTS WITH CRIMINALS ON PREVIOUS OCCASION/S THEY DID NOTHING ACCORDING TO OTHERS THEY ARE USELESS .
§ FAMILY/PEER PRESSURE/FEAR OF REJECTION.
§ PERPETRATOR RECONCILE WITH VICTIM /PAY DAMAGES TO THE VICTIM.
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CRIME REGISTRATION ON POLICE SYSTEMS.
(CRIME ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM-CAS) (A) REPORTING TO POLICE
• THE POLICE MAY TRY TO CONVINCE VICTIM THAT NO CRIME OCCURRED OR THAT EVEN IF A CRIME OCCURRED THAT IT IS JUST NOT WORTHWHILE TO LAY A COMPLAINT OR THAT IT IS DANGEROUS TO OPEN A DOCKET. THEY MAY GO SO FAR AS TO MEDIATE BETWEEN VICTIM AND PERPETRATOR.
• IF VICTIM PERSIST THEY MAY OPEN A “DUMMY" DOCKET, CRIME CARD OR JUST REGISTER IT IN THE INCIDENT BOOK (I.B.) AND PROVIDE THAT NUMBER TO THE VICTIM.
• BUT A DOCKET IS NOT OPENED AND IF A DOCKET IS NOT OPENED IT CAN’T BE REGISTERED ON CAS .
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CRIME REGISTRATION ON POLICE SYSTEMS (CRIME ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM-CAS)
(B)OPENING OF DOCKET
• POLICE TAKE A STATEMENT. THEY SHOULD TAKE IT AS DETAILED AS POSSIBLE TO GET ALL THE ELEMENTS OF CRIME (USING THEIR KNOWLEDGE OF COMMON LAW AND THE DEFINITIONS OF CRIME).
• THEY LIST ALL THE CRIMES THAT OCCURRED ACCORDING TO THE STATEMENT ON THE FRONT PAGE OF THE DOCKET.
• THEY SHOULD ALSO APPLY THE COUNTING RULES TO DETERMINE HOW MANY COUNTS OF EACH CRIME LISTED WERE COMMITTED AND THIS SHOULD ALSO BE LISTED AS COUNTS ON THE FRONT PAGE.
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CRIME REGISTRATION ON POLICE SYSTEMS (CRIME ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM –CAS) (C) REGISTRATION OF DOCKET ON CAS
• THE SPECIFIC CRIMES MENTIONED ON THE DOCKET COVER AND THE NUMBER OF COUNTS FOR EACH CRIME WILL NOW BE ENTERED ON THE COMPUTER BY A STAFF MEMBER.
• THE CASE IS NOW REGISTERED IN THE CAS COMPUTER WHICH ALSO ALLOCATE A SPECIFIC SEQUENCE CAS NUMBER WHICH BECOME THE DOCKET NUMBER.
• THE SPECIFIC CRIME MENTIONED ON THE DOCKET COVER AS WELL AS THE COUNTS OF EACH SHOULD BE ON THE CAS.
• CHECKING DISCREPANCIES
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CRIME REGISTRATION ON POLICE SYSTEMS (CRIME ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM)
(D) ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CAS
SOME OF THE INFORMATION ON THE CASE DOCKET WILL ALSO BE ENTERED ONTO CAS. THIS INCLUDE: Ø ADDRESS OF CRIME (WHICH WILL ALSO
APPEAR ON THE GIS). Ø TIME OF OCCURRENCE OF CRIME. Ø VICTIM INFORMATION WHICH INTER ALIA
INCLUDE GENDER, AGE, AND RACE. Ø PERPETRATOR INFORMATION (IF KNOWN). Ø INSTRUMENT USED. Ø A SHORT BUT DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF HOW
THE CRIME HAPPENED (QUALITY, COMPLETENESS AND CORRECTNESS).
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SO WHAT IS NOW ELECTRONICALLY AVAILABLE?
• CRIME STATISTICS –WHEN STATISTICS IS REQUESTED CAS COUNT EACH COUNT OF EACH CRIME AND PROVIDE THE NUMBER OF COUNTS FOR THAT CRIME PER POLICE STATION. POLICE STATIONS IN A CLUSTER COUNT UP TO CLUSTER STATISTICS AND CLUSTER STATISTICS COUNT UP TO PROVINCIALSTATISTITS WHICH AGAIN COUNT UP TO NATIONAL STATISTICS .
• THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF CRIME ON GIS(GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION).
• SOME INFORMATION BEHIND EACH DOT(ICON) ON THE CRIME MAP.
• AS RESEARCHERS / ANALYSTS WE WOULD HAVE PREFERRED MORE INFO.
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OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS AT STATION LEVEL
(AS IT SHOULD BE DONE )
• CHECKING OF CAS REGISTRATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (INCLUDING GIS).
• SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF CRIME. TO IDENTIFY HOTSPOTS.
• MATRIX LINKAGE ANALYSIS.TO IDENTIFY PEAK TIMES,M.O. USED,COMMONALITIES, THE ROOTS OF PROFILES AND SOME EXPLANATION.
• FIELDWORK (VISITING HOTSPOTS AT PEAK TIMES) TO GATHER EXPLANATIONS.
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OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS AT CLUSTER LEVEL
(AS IT SHOULD BE DONE )
• MONITOR CRIME DISPLACEMENTS OVER STATION BOUNDARIES IN A CLUSTER. • CHECKING LINKAGES IDENTIFIED BY STATIONS AND ESTABLISH IF THEY LINK UP AT CLUSTER LEVEL. THIS BECOME THE COLLECTION PLAN FOR NETWORK OPERATIONS. • DOING CLUSTER CRIME ASSESMENTS.
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THE IMPORTANCE OF OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS.
• HOUR TO HOUR POLICING BASED ON HOTSPOTS, PEAK TIMES ETC. WITHOUT THIS EFFECTIVE POLICING IMPOSSIBLE.
• SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CRIME PREVENTION.
• INVESTIGATION (PREVENTION CAN MAKE INVESTIGATION MORE FOCUSED AND CLUSTER CASES FOR ALLOCATION).
• COLLECTION PLAN FOR AT LEAST NETWORK OPERATIONS BASED ON OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS.
• ENSURE DATA QUALITY (CORRECTNESS AND COMPLETENESS ) ORKIN
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THE STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF CRIME. SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH IN THE POLICE AND OUTSIDE.(SLIDE ONE)
DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO CRIME RESEARCH:
Ø STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND DESCRIPTION.
Ø DOCKET ANALYSIS.
Ø QUALITATIVE INTERVIEWING OF VICTIMS, PERPETRATORS, AND LAW ENFORCERS.
Ø VICTIM SURVEYS (INSIDE AND OUTSIDE)
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THE STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF CRIME. SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH IN THE POLICE AND OUTSIDE.(SLIDE TWO)
• MULTI-VARIATE ANALYSIS OF CRIMES (DEPENDENT VARIABLE) AND DEMOGRAPHIC, POLICING, SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES (INDEPENDENT / EXPLANATORY VARIABLES).
• GIS ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS.
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OTHER NOTES.
• OPENNESS BECAUSE THIS IS PUBLIC INFORMATION –GENERATED BY THE PUBLIC FOR ANALYSIS BY THOSE WHO ARE PAID TO CREATE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF CRIME SO THAT ALL THOSE INVOLVE IN CRIME COMBATTING CAN PREVENT AND INVESTIGATE IT MORE EFFECTIVELY.
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THANK YOU