Presented by
Muhammad Jawad IkramPhD Student Computer Science, KAU,
Jeddah, KSADated: 19thMarch’2014
Gordan E. Moore
Gordon E. Moore, “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits,”Electronics, pp. 114–117, April 19, 1965.
A manifesto about the promise of integrations
Gordon Moore predicts a huge range of applications
And a bunch of advantages
He is selling hard!!
The advantages of integration will bring about a proliferation of electronics, pushing this science into many new areas.
Scientific advancement
Home Computers
Automatic Auto Control
Telephones Phones
Electronic Wrist Watches
Large Scale Data Processing
Communication Networks
Reliability
Compactness
Weight
Power efficiency
Simpler designs -- see 8008 to 8086 evolution.
Moore’s LawThe number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every 18 months[1]. The trend has continued for more than half a century and is not expected to stop until 2015 or later [2].
Comparison (Past and Present)
An Osborne Executiveportable computer, from1982, and an iPhone,released 2007. TheExecutive weighs 100times as much, hasnearly 500 times thevolume, cost 10 times asmuch, and has a 100ththe processing power ofthe iPhone.
The paper noted that number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 until 1965 and predicted that the trend would continue "for at least ten years".
His prediction has proved to be uncannily accurate, in part because the law is now used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development.
W. Wayt gibbs
Moore was overoptimistic
65000 transistors didn’t appear till 1981
But his fundamental insights held true for so long
Moore’s Law
Moore observe that his prediction has self-fulfilling prophecy
Chipmakers know they have to stay on that curve to remain competitive
So, they make effort to make it happen
Moore had accidental entry to semiconductor business
Had PhD in Physical Chemistry in 1954 from Caltech.
William Shockley was looking for a chemist to work in his company.
Moore having no experience in semiconductor but Shockley offered him job anyway.
In 1971, the first Microprocessor was born
Four Intel Engineers under Moore’s direction.
Took nine months
But a Problem!!!
“Busicom paid a portion of the development costs and therefore owned the rights to design.”
But Fortune was with Moore.
Busicom slipped into financial straits.
Moore’s company return there 65000 dollars and got the rights to the chips back for all uses.
Moore predictions
Tweaking the lenses, robots and ultraviolet lasers used to etch circuits onto silicon will extract perhaps two more generation of processors.
With features 0.18, then 0.13 microns across from optical techniques.
Three equally unattractive alternatives◦ X-rays, with their smaller wavelength could carve
out wires just a handful of atoms across
◦ Electron beam to draw circuit design line by line onto silicon
◦ The smart money is on soft X-rays (low frequency x-rays)
On 13 April 2005, Gordon Moore stated in an interview that the law cannot be sustained indefinitely:
"It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens."
He also noted that transistors would eventually reach the limits of miniaturization at atomic levels
“We have another 10 to 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit. By then they'll be able to make bigger chips and have transistor budgets in the billions [3]”
Gene M. Amdahl
Single VS Multiple
Interconnection of computers
Validity of the single processor approach
Weakness of the multiple processor approach
Statistical characteristics of computation
1. The fraction of the computational load is constant (~40%).
2. Sequential ( unlikely to be amenable to parallel processing technique)
Physical Problems
1. Irregular boundaries2. Inhomogeneous interior3. Computation maybe dependent on the
states of the variables at each point4. Propagation rate may be quite different5. The rate of convergence may be strongly
dependent on sweeping through array.
Amdahl’s Law Amdahl's law, also known as Amdahl's argument, is used tofind the maximum expected improvement to an overall systemwhen only part of the system is improved.
where rs represents the ratio of the sequential portion in one program
1
1
p
s
s p
Speedupr
rn
r r
Potential speed up of program using multiple processors
Concluded that:◦ Code needs to be parallelizable
◦ Speed up is bound, giving diminishing returns for more processors
Task dependent◦ Servers gain by maintaining multiple connections
on multiple processors
• For program running on single processor—Fraction f of code infinitely parallelizable with no
scheduling overhead
—Fraction (1-f) of code inherently serial
—T is total execution time for program on single processor
—N is number of processors that fully exploit paralelportions of code
Conclusionsf small, parallel processors has little effectN ->∞, speedup bound by 1/(1 – f)
Diminishing returns for using more processors
[1] Although originally calculated as a doubling every year, (ftp:/ / download. intel. com/ museum/ Moores_Law/ Articles-Press_Releases/ Gordon_Moore_1965_Article. pdf) Moore later refined the period to two years. (ftp:/ / download. intel. com/ museum/ Moores_Law/ Video-Transcripts/ Excepts_A_Conversation_with_Gordon_Moore. pdf) It is often incorrectly quoted as a doubling of transistors every 2 years, as David House, an Intel executive, gave that period to chip performance increase.
[2] The trend begins with the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958. See the graph on the bottom of page 3 of Moore's original presentation of the idea (ftp:/ / download. intel. com/ museum/ Moores_Law/ Articles-Press_Releases/ Gordon_Moore_1965_Article. pdf). The limits of the trend are discussed here: Kanellos, Michael (19 April 2005). "New Life for Moore's Law" (http:/ / news. cnet. com/ New-life-for-Moores-Law/ 2009-1006_3-5672485. html
[3] Manek Dubash (2005-04-13). "Moore's Law is dead, says Gordon Moore" (http:/ / www. techworld. com/ opsys/ news/ index. cfm?NewsID=3477). Techworld. .
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