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COSMO-DE-EPSCOSMO-DE-EPSStatus, developments & plansStatus, developments & plans
-- WG 7 parallel session ---- WG 7 parallel session --
Christoph Gebhardt, Susanne Theis,Michael Buchhold, Andreas Röpnack
Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 1
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OutlineOutline
operational set upoperational set up
forecast productsforecast products
verification resultsverification results
new developmentsnew developments
current researchcurrent research
future plansfuture plans
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STATUSSTATUS
DEVELOPMENTS & DEVELOPMENTS & PLANSPLANS
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Operational set-up of COSMO-DE-EPSOperational set-up of COSMO-DE-EPS
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STATUSSTATUS
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operational set-up:operational set-up:
20 members20 members
grid size: 2.8 kmgrid size: 2.8 km
convection-permittingconvection-permitting
lead time: 0-lead time: 0-2727 hours, hours,
8 starts per day (00, 03, 06,... UTC)8 starts per day (00, 03, 06,... UTC) model domain
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The 20 members of COSMO-DE-EPS
11 22 33 44 55
GMEGME
IFSIFS
GSMGSM
GFSGFS
BC-EPSBC-EPS
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BC-EPS for boundary and initial perturbations
COSMO-DE-EPS 2.8km
COSMO 7km
BC-EPSGME, IFS, GFS, GSM
Generation of EPS membersGeneration of EPS members
run at ECMWF asrun at ECMWF astime critical applicationtime critical application
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Forecast productsForecast products
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STATUSSTATUS
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Operational products (Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode„forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode))
type:type:probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberprobabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberforecasters’ choice:forecasters’ choice:members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variablesmembers as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Operational products (Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode„forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode))
type:type:probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberprobabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberforecasters’ choice:forecasters’ choice:members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variablesmembers as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables
variables:variables:precip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmaxprecip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmaxforecasters’ choice:forecasters’ choice:cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column)cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column)
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Operational products (Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode„forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode))
type:type:probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberprobabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberforecasters’ choice:forecasters’ choice:members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variablesmembers as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables
variables:variables:precip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmaxprecip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmaxforecasters’ choice:forecasters’ choice:cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column)cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column)
temporal reference (e.g. of probs.):temporal reference (e.g. of probs.):1hour, 6 and 12 hours1hour, 6 and 12 hours
spatial reference spatial reference 1 grid point or 10 x 10 grid points (for precip. probabilities only)1 grid point or 10 x 10 grid points (for precip. probabilities only)
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Verification of operational forecastsVerification of operational forecasts
EPS not calibrated or post-processedEPS not calibrated or post-processed
observations: rain-gauge adjusted radar or SYNOP observations: rain-gauge adjusted radar or SYNOP
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STATUSSTATUS
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winter 12/13
winter 11/12summer 11
summer 12
BrierBrier Skill Score Skill Score (reference: (reference: deterministic run deterministic run of COSMO-DE)of COSMO-DE)
hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation
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winter 12/13
winter 11/12summer 11
summer 12
ROC areaROC area
hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation
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winter 12/13
winter 11/12summer 11
summer 12
ReliabilityReliability
hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation
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winter 12/13
winter 11/12summer 11
summer 12
Rank Rank histogrammhistogramm
hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation
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2m temperature2m temperature wind gustswind gusts
rank histogramrank histogram
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New developmentsNew developments
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DEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTS
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Perturbed coefficient for minimum diffusionPerturbed coefficient for minimum diffusion (heat and momentum) (heat and momentum)
operational setup + perturbation of tkhmin, tkmminoperational setup + perturbation of tkhmin, tkmmin
Range: [0.2 ,0.5, 0.8]Range: [0.2 ,0.5, 0.8]
4 members 0.5, 7 members 0.2, 7 members 0.84 members 0.5, 7 members 0.2, 7 members 0.8
Test period: November 2011, 00 UTC runsTest period: November 2011, 00 UTC runs
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2m temperature
perturbed minimum diffusion
referenceSkill (RMSE)
spread
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2m temperature
perturbed minimum diffusion
reference
Brier Skill Score
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± half the difference between C-EU and C-DE soil moisture in all layers but the lowest
test period June/July 2012
m1 m2 m3 m4 m5 m6 ... ... m18 m19 m20
- +.5*inc -.5*inc - +.5*inc -.5*inc … … -.5*inc +.5*inc -
Perturbed soil moisturePerturbed soil moisture
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Perturbation ~10% of layer water content units: kg/m2 COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 23
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2m temperature
perturbed soil moisture
reference
Skill (RMSE)
spread
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2m temperature
perturbed soil moisture
referenceBrier Skill Score
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Current researchCurrent research
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DEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTS
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Probabilistic forecasts for efficient and safe use of renewable energies
(EweLine, ORKA)
Wind, photovoltaic
Evaluate forecast quality for wind farms
Improve methods for EPS perturbations, e.g. IC perturbations
FINO1
FINO3 FINO2
Cabauw Lindenberg
Karlsruhe
Hamburg
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COSMO-DE-EPS at FINO2 (100m)
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win
d s
pee
d
forecast time
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Initial condition perturbationsInitial condition perturbationsmodified by orographymodified by orography
Current setup:Current setup:
• add anomalies to operational COSMO-DE analysis fields for add anomalies to operational COSMO-DE analysis fields for selected variablesselected variables
• Anomaly: BC-EPS minus short-range forecast (latest COSMO-EU)Anomaly: BC-EPS minus short-range forecast (latest COSMO-EU)
• Filter anomalies near the surfaceFilter anomalies near the surface
• Full anomaly above model level ~ 25, no perturbation below m.l. 40Full anomaly above model level ~ 25, no perturbation below m.l. 40
Modification:Modification:
• Degree of perturbation depends on Degree of perturbation depends on spatial variance of orographyspatial variance of orography
• The “smoother” the orography, the higher the degree of The “smoother” the orography, the higher the degree of perturbation near the surfaceperturbation near the surface
Test period: March 2012, 00 UTC runsTest period: March 2012, 00 UTC runs
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deg
ree
of
per
turb
atio
n1
0
model level surfacemodel top
σh ≥ 500m
σh < 125m
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10m wind gusts
modified IC perturbation
reference
Skill (RMSE)
spread
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10m wind gusts
modified IC perturbation
referenceCRPS
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hourly precipitation
modified IC perturbation
reference
Skill (RMSE)
spread
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hourly precipitation
modified IC perturbation
reference
CRPS
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2m temperature
modified IC perturbation
reference
Skill (RMSE)
spread
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11 22 33 44 55
GMEGME
IFSIFS
GSMGSM
GFSGFS
BC-EPSBC-EPS
COSMO-LEPS
COSMO-LEPS
M1M1
M2M2
M3M3
M4M4
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single-member single-member RMSERMSE
2m temperature 2m temperature 40 members40 members
BC-EPS driven members (1-BC-EPS driven members (1-20)20)
LEPS driven members (21-40)LEPS driven members (21-40)
forecast time in h
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winter 2011/12winter 2011/12
Brier Skill Brier Skill ScoreScore
Threshold in K
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2m temperature 2m temperature 40 members40 members
BC-EPS driven members (1-BC-EPS driven members (1-20)20)
LEPS driven members (21-40)LEPS driven members (21-40)
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 40
winter 2012/13winter 2012/13
single-member single-member RMSERMSE
forecast time in h
Brier Skill Brier Skill ScoreScore
Threshold in K
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LEPS
Winter 11/12: COSMO 4.12 int2lm 1.18since 2012 0802 COSMO 4.21 int2lm 1.18since 2013 0123 COSMO 4.26 int2lm 1.20 no „Kain-Fritsch members“ used as BC for COSMO-DE-EPS since 2012 0329 BCEPS
Winter 11/12: COSMO 4.21 int2lm 1.18since 2012 1204 COSMO 4.22 int2lm 1.20since 2013 0118 COSMO 4.26 int2lm 1.20
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Future plansFuture plans
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PLANSPLANS
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Future plans and optionsFuture plans and options
calibration in operational modecalibration in operational mode (needs evaluation by forecasters) (needs evaluation by forecasters)
add new physics perturbations or alternative perturbation add new physics perturbations or alternative perturbation methods (e.g. stochastic physics)methods (e.g. stochastic physics)
LETKF for IC perturbations (KENDA)LETKF for IC perturbations (KENDA)
ICON-EPS for BC perturbations (2017 ?) ICON-EPS for BC perturbations (2017 ?)
use time-lagged ensemble approach in product generationuse time-lagged ensemble approach in product generation
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Thank you!
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