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Insights into strategies & measures to engage with the community
Lew ShortGroup Manager Community Resilience
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NSW Lessons Learnt from Victoria & Challenges…
• Plain language, get away from jargon & make information accessible
• Speed of change and expectations• Challenge of getting information in and
making it into intelligence• Is it enough that people discuss what they will
do, do they need to have a written plan• Can community make decisions in times of
stress
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Are We Barking up the Wrong Tree?
• My trip to Melbourne for the weekend of 7th Feb 2009
• “We just know what to do”• “People like to be told what to do”• “What I need to do is not clear”
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Action to trigger leavingHigh Risk
(n=388)%
Low Risk(n=372)
%
Recent Fire(n=346)
%
No Recent Fire
(n=414)%
NETT Advised 42 30 32 40
When told to leave by Fire Service 32 23 23 31
When advised on radio 10 7 8 8
When advised to leave by any authority 3 2 2 3
When the Police \ SES tell me to leave 2 1 1 2
When telephoned 1 2 1 2
As soon as I heard a warning 2 2 2 1
NETT Visible fire/smoke 25 14 20 20
When I see smoke 16 10 16 11
When I can see fire 6 3 3 7
If I saw other houses burning 2 0 1 2
If there was an ember attack, I would leave 1 1 1 1
If it was on \ coming over the hill 1 1 1 1
NETT Depends on Conditions 6 11 11 7
It would depend on the wind \ atmospheric conditions 3 5 5 3
It would depend on the direction of the wind &our available exits 2 3 3 2
I would judge it at the time \ make my decision then 1 2 1 1
When I’m sure it’s coming my way 0 1 1 0
Base: Those respondents who would leave home if threatened (n=760)Q15: When would you plan to leave?
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Action the would trigger leavingHigh Risk
(n=388)%
Low Risk(n=372)
%
Recent Fire(n=346)
%
No Recent Fire (n=414)
%
NETT Close by 6 16 13 10
If it comes close 3 7 6 4
Before it got too close \ while there is enough time 2 6 5 3
When it comes within a predetermined distance eg 500metres
1 3 2 2
Other
As early as possible \ immediately 8 7 7 8
If we thought our lives were in danger \ felt threatened 6 8 6 7
If the fire became out of control 3 1 2 2
When I knew there was nothing more to do to fight it \ hopeless
1 3 3 2
When neighbours leave 2 2 1 2
At the last minute 1 2 1 2
When Fire Danger Rating reaches Severe 2 1 1 2
When the house was threatened 1 2 2 1
When Fire Danger Rating reaches Catastrophic 1 1 0 2
When Fire Danger Rating reaches Extreme 1 1 1 1
When the fire service arrive 1 1 0 1
Don’t know 6 7 8 6
Base: Those respondents who would leave home if threatened (n=760)Q15. When would you plan to leave?
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Base: All respondents (n=1,200)Q3. Generally speaking, during the Spring and Summer months, how high would you say the risk from bushfires is to your home? Would you say it is a:
High Risk (n=600)
Low Risk (n=600) Recent Fire (n=577)
No Recent Fire (n=623)
7 5 5 7
126 6
11
16
12 1414
29
24 2626
23
3129
24
1423 20 17
Extremely High Very high High Moderate Low Not a threat
Perceived Risk
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7
In the Event of a Bushfire• Roughly one half of respondents indicated they
would leave. • For many the trigger to leave their home was
being advised by the RFS, SES, Police or other authority.
• 80% of people will wait and see• Dependency on information
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Some NSW Fire Seasons
2002/03 2006/07 2009/10
Number of bush fires statewide 459 2,871 4,104
Duration of Bush Fire Emergencies (days)
151 days 113 days 118 days
Area Burnt (ha) 1,465,000 438,218 366,159
Residential Homes destroyed 86 8 24
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Lim
it to
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Para
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(~50
km/h
)
Potential:• Loss of radio & telco towers• Loss of situational awareness
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Capacity of community to receive and act on triggers
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Focus on suppression
Focus on life safety
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Time0
10
20
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Community Interest
Interest
The
big
fires
fires
on
the
new
s
fires
on
the
new
s, s
mok
e
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Community Interest
Interest
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Time0
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Community Interest
Interest
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Time0
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Community Interest
Interest
How do we engage during crisis?
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• What messages do we want people to hear? • More importantly… How do we want them to Act?
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Broadcast to Directive?
• Tipping point• Challenges associated with this
• Alerts and SMS• RSS feeds• Social media• Planning and building
controls• Risk planning
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• property owners will not voluntarily include appropriate levels of bushfire protection and survival measures in new buildings in bushfire prone areas.
• Insufficient information, “bounded rationality” and poor perception of risk
Market Failures
Therefore, Government intervention is
justified on the grounds that it could
deliver a more efficient outcome for
society.”
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RFS Assessed Development Applications since Aug 2002
21
DA Type Total
State Significant Development 1,024
Planning Instruments 173
Subdivision and Special Fire Protection 18,948
Residential Infill 52,958
Total 73,103
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Page 24 11/04/2023
Leave Early Option – Batemans Bay (10km)
Leave Early Option – Moruya (25km)
Sample Bay Bush Fire Survival Map
Warning and Product Information
The Bush Fire Survival Map
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Neighbourhood Safer Places
• Place of last resort
• 793 NSPs identified for 111 local
government areas across the State.
• Form a back up option as part of Bush Fire
Survival Plan.
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Social Media• Socially-enabled
• Mobile-friendly
• On Demand
• Track Twitter, social networks, blogs, discussion boards,
content sites
• Make content and data available for use by others
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Lew ShortGroup Manager Community Resilience NSW Rural Fire Service02-8741 5454
Lew Short Lewshort14http://www.slideshare.net/LewShort
Ta much