Comprehensive Drought Monitoring and
Early Warning Systems By
Robert Stefanski
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World Meteorological Organiza<on
• United Na<ons agency for weather, climate, hydrology and water resources and related environmental issues.
• 191 Members from Na<onal Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) – New Member – South Sudan (Dec 2012)
• 10 major scien<fic & technical programmes (Secretariat) • 8 Technical Commissions advise & guide ac<vi<es of
programmes (Experts) • 6 Regional Associa<ons involved in implementa<on
Regional Associa<ons of WMO
RA-‐III
RA-‐IV RA-‐VI
RA-‐I
RA-‐II
RA-‐V
Regional Climate Centers • Opera<onal Ac<vi<es for Long Range Forecas<ng • Opera<onal Ac<vi<es for Climate Monitoring
– Perform climate diagnos7cs including analysis of climate variability and extremes, at regional and sub-‐regional scales;
– Establish an historical reference climatology for the region and/or sub-‐regions;
– Implement a regional Climate Watch • Opera<onal Data Services
– Develop regional climate datasets, gridded where applicable; – Provide climate database and archiving services, at the request of NMHSs.
• Training in the use of opera<onal RCC products and services
Regional Climate Centers
RCC for Caribbean -‐ Caribbean Ins<tute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH)
RCC for Western South America -‐ Centro Internacional para la Inves<gación del Fenómeno de El Niño (CIIFEN)
RCC-‐Network for Southern South America
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High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policies
• March 11-15 2013 • Over 414 participants from 87 countries • Main Partners – UNCCD, FAO, WMO • Key message: Help countries move from
reactive to proactive drought policies
• 12 representatives of UN agencies and international and regional organizations (NOAA, UNU, IFRC, IOM, CBD, WFP, IAEA, UNECA, JRC, ICARDA, GWP, ACMAD, ISDR) • Final Declaration adopted – www.wmo.int/hmndp
Source: Na<onal Drought Mi<ga<on Center, University of Nebraska-‐Lincoln
The cycle of disaster management
8 www.droughtmanagement.info
Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)
• Established in 2013 at HMNDP • Main co-sponsors WMO and Global Water Partnership
along with over 30 other organizations including FAO, UNCCD, and CBD
• Supports stakeholders at all levels by providing policy and management guidance and by sharing scientific information, knowledge and best practices for Integrated Drought Management.
• Contributes to global coordination of drought-related efforts of existing organizations & agencies
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AEMET -‐ Spanish Meteorological Agency Australian Bureau of Meteorology CONAGUA Mexico’s Na7onal Water
Commission FAO -‐ Food and Agriculture Organiza<on of
the United Na<ons FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems
Network UNCCD -‐ United Na<ons Conven<on to
Combat Deser<fica<on UNCBD -‐ Conven<on on Biological
Diversity George Mason University Global
Environment and Natural Resources Ins7tute
ICARDA -‐ Interna7onal Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
ICID -‐ Interna7onal Commission for Irriga7on and Drainage
IMTA -‐Mexican Ins7tute of Water Technology
IWMI -‐ Interna7onal Water Management Ins7tute
JRC -‐ Joint Research Centre SEI -‐ Stockholm Environment Ins7tute NDMC -‐ U.S. Na7onal Drought Mi7ga7on
Center NIDIS -‐ U.S. Na7onal Integrated Drought
Informa7on System UNDP Cap-‐Net UNDP -‐ United Na7ons Development
Progamme UNESCO United Na7ons Educa7onal,
Scien7fic and Cultural Organiza7on UNEP -‐ United Na7ons Environment
Programme UNISDR United Na7ons Office for Disaster
Risk Reduc7on University of Nebraska Daugherty Water for
Food Ins7tute University of Southern Queensland UNU Flores World Bank
IDMP Partners
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Drought Ac<vi<es • FAO, UNCCD, WMO, CBD and UN Water - 6 Regional
National Drought Management Policy Workshops (2013-2015) – Eastern Europe, Latin America, Asia-Pacific, North Africa and
Western Asia East and Southern Africa, West Africa • IDMP Regional Projects
– Central and Eastern Europe (since 2013) – Horn of Africa (since 2014) – West Africa (since 2015) – South Asia Drought Monitoring System (since 2014) – with IWMI – Central America (since 2013). – South America (since 2015) - Developing South American Drought
Monitoring System – Pacific Islands (since 2016)
Drought Publica<ons
Handbook is a resource to cover most commonly used drought indicators/indices A star<ng point to describe and characterize the most common indicators and indices and their applica<ons Does not recommend a ”best” set of indicators and indices, given research requirements for appropriate applica<on in loca<on in ques<on.
Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices
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Importance of a Drought Monitoring System
• allows for early drought detec7on • improves response (proac)ve) • “triggers” ac7ons within a drought plan • a cri7cal mi)ga)on ac7on • founda)on of a drought plan
Source: Svoboda, 2009
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Poten<al Monitoring System Products and Reports
• Historical analysis (climatology, impacts, magnitude, frequency)
• Opera)onal assessment (coopera7ve data, SPI and other indices, automated networks, satellite and soil moisture data, media and official requests)
• Predic)ons/Projec)ons (SPI and other indices, soil moisture, streamflow, seasonal forecasts, SST’s)
Source: Svoboda, 2009
Selec<ng drought indicators and indices
Timely detec7on of drought to trigger appropriate communica7on and coordina7on to mi7gate or respond Sensi7vity to climate, space and 7me to determine drought onset and termina7on Responsive to reflect drought impacts occurring on the ground Which indicators/indices and triggers to use for going into and coming out of drought Data for indices/indicator available and record consistent Ease of implementa7on? (Human, ins7tu7onal and financial capacity available)
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The US Drought Monitor is widely used:
Source: Svoboda, 2009
• Policy – Numerous states use as a drought trigger (Governor’s declara7ons)
– 2006-‐07 IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses) – 2008 Farm Bill – NWS Drought Informa7on Statements
• ~3.75M page views and ~2M visitors/year
• Media: The Weather Channel and all major newspapers and Network News
• Presidential/Congressional briefings
• A model of interagency/level collaboration
North American Drought Monitor (NADM)
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NorthEast Brazil Drought Monitor
• Agência Pernambucana de Águas e Clima (APAC) • Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (FUNCEME) • Ins7tuto de Meio Ambiente e Recursos Hídricos (INEMA) do Estado da Bahia
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Components of a Drought Early Warning and Informa<on System
• Monitoring AND Forecas7ng • Tools for decision makers • Drought risk assessment and planning • Educa<on and awareness • Communica<on
• An early warning must contain a statement of poten7al future risk, whether through persistence from trends, a forecast, a scenario or an analog
WMO, UNCCD, FAO, UN-Water - Europe Regional Workshop on National Drought Management Policies. 9-11 July 2013, Bucharest, Romania
Time during normal condi<ons IndicatorsTriggers
Actions
I-1I-2I-3I-4
I-1Level 1 (SPI 0.0 to -0.99)Level 2 (SPI -1.0 to -1.49)Level 3 (SPI -1.5 to -1.99)Level 4 (SPI ≤ -2.0)
Level 2Action 1Action 2Action 3
Consider Level 2 ; SPI = -‐1.25 (Moderate drought)
Consider Ac<on 1: Ban watering lawns Consider Ac<on 2: Dig extra wells for livestock and
wildlife in area Consider Ac<on 3: Reduce irriga<on of annual
crops by 50%
Consider I-‐1 is SPI
3 Pillars of Integrated Drought Management
INTEGRATED DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
MONITORING/ EARLY WARNING Drought status
MITIGATION & PREPAREDNESS
Ac7ons and measures to mi7gate drought impacts and prepare to respond to drought emergencies more effec7vely
VULNERABILITY & IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Who/What is at RISK & Why? Priori7za7on/
Ranking
DROUGHT CHARACTERIZATION STUDIES
FEEDBACK
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Workshop on Developing a Drought Monitoring and EWS for South America
• 8-‐10 August 2017 –Buenos Aires, Argen<na • Technical Workshop Requested by WMO President of South
American Region • Par<cipants from 13 Countries -‐ NMHS – Agriculture, Energy and
Water • Recommended to develop detailed consensus plan to implement
a regional South American Drought Informa<on System (DIS) ini<ally focused on 6 Southern South American Countries and subsequently expanded to the en<re region.
• Plan would aim to iden<fy exis<ng & needed drought informa<on, data, and products, and to elicit regional priori<es for the desired capabili<es of a DIS.
Thank you