PREPAREDNESS OF TODAY AND
FUTURE NATIONAL POWER SUPPLY
BOBBY ADHITYO RIZALDI, SE Ak., MBA, CFE
Member or Parliament Commission VII of the Republic of
Indonesia
PREPREDNESS OF TODAY AND FUTURE NATIONAL
POWER SUPPLY
ECONOMY GROWTH AND NATIONAL POWER
SUPPLY
� In the middle of today’s global crisis threat, World Bank admitts
that compared to other developing countries, Indonesia
economy growth is relatively stable.
� Government in APBN 2012 economy growth target is 6,7%
(increase from economy growth in 2011 by 6,3%).
� Target achievement of economy growth will be hard to
implemented without infrastructure acceleration development.
Bappenas reports the electricity infrastructure issue still be a
constraint to investment growth level in Indonesia.
PREPAREDNESS OF TODAY AND FUTURE NATIONAL
POWER SUPPLY
ECONOMY GROWTH AND NATIONAL POWER
SUPPLY
� World Bank through a survey doing business
2012 reduces business (investment) climate in
Indonesia from position 126 to 129. The
deceasing rank is caused by low electricity
infrastructure as one of the factor.
� The cause from the electricity infrastructure issue is
fund availability.
126
129
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL
SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
DEMAND GROWTH ON POWER
� Statement by LPEM UI in 2008 : Economy growth 1% needs
input in form of power growth by 1,5 – 2%, or elasticity
between 1,5 – 2%. PLN uses average elasticity 1.5
� Based on RUPTL 2010-2019, with economy growth
assumption averagely 6,1%, Electrification ratio (RE) will
increase from 65% in 2009 to 91% in 2019.
� Indonesia power needs predicted to grow in average by 9,2%
per year. In East Indonesia reaches to 10,6% per year, West
Indonesia reaches 10,2%, and in Jawa-Bali grows by 8,97%.
Power needs projection in 2019 reaches 327 TWh from 133
TWh in year 2010.
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL
SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
DEMAND GROWTH ON NATIONAL POWER
6
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Indonesia
Jawa-Bali
West Indonesia
East Indonesia
Realization Projection
327 TWh
252 TWh
54 TWh
28 TWh
133 TWh
104 TWh
20 TWh
10 TWh
Power needs of Indonesia predicted to grow in average of 9.2% per
year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia
10.6%)
Realization and Projection of Power Needs 2010 - 2019 (GWh)
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL
SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
POWER SUPPLY GROWTH
� Per October 2010, from target 2010 by 67,56% elektrification
ration (RE) implemented only 66,28%. Or of number of
household per 2010 by 58.070.327 only 38.486.988
households that receives power (target 2010 is 39.231.030 household customers).
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL
SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
SUPPLY GROWTH OF POWER
Electrification ratio in average 66% and will increase in
2019 to 91%
9
PROJECTION OF ELECTRIFICATION RATIO 2010-2019
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
110,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)
RE (%) Ind RE (%) IB RE (%) IT RE (%) JB
TAHUN 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
RE (%) Ind 66 69 71 74 77 79 82 86 88 91
RE (%) IB 62 64 67 69 72 74 77 79 82 85
RE (%) IT 48 50 52 54 57 60 62 65 68 72
RE (%) JB 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 98
10
PLAN OF POWER SUPPLY AND INVESTMENT
NEEDS
� Investment required for construction of new generator or
transmission line and its distribution up to 2019 predicted USD
97,1 billions or USD 9,7 billions per year. Investment need at
electricity sector at this huge certainly can not afford by PLN
or government only, private role required for the development
of National electricity.
� To fulfill electricity needs in 2019 will reach to 327 TWh (of 133
TWh in year 2010) required new plant construction up to
55.484 MW until 2019 or in average of 5.500 MW more per
year. More than that from 65% among of them needed in
Jawa-Bali.
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL
SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
11
Additional Plan of Generator Throughout Indonesia
-
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
PLTU PLTP PLTGU PLTG PLTD PLTA
Total : 55.484 MW
MW 4.156
6.248
4.586 4.985
8.643
2.608
5.490 5.596
6.607 6.565
12
Investment Need of Generator for PLN + IPP, Transmission and Distribution
Total Investasi
Pembangkit
TransmisiDistribusi
-
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
14,000.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Juta USD
Column1 Column22010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jumlah
Pembangkit 5,353.3 6,605.8 9,230.0 9,687.6 8,054.9 6,070.6 6,744.4 7,025.9 6,301.8 5,559.5 70,633.7
Transmisi 1,987.7 2,045.9 1,577.0 1,509.7 1,836.1 2,239.0 1,310.1 971.0 878.0 840.7 15,195.2
Distribusi 781.2 1,087.4 1,014.0 956.0 999.9 1,183.6 1,210.5 1,330.1 1,371.7 1,340.3 11,274.7
Total Investasi 8,122.2 9,739.0 11,821.1 12,153.3 10,890.8 9,493.2 9,265.0 9,326.9 8,551.5 7,740.5 97,103.6
13
� Production of power in 2010 reached to more or less 170 th
GWh and will increase 10% or 187 th GWH in year 2011,
where around 27% from private. This shows besides state
enterprise, private also has participated in power supply and
will increase in line with power need growth.
SUPPLY PLAN OF POWER AND INVESTMENT
NEED
� The participation of private (IPP) nationally very beneficial, hence power supply to local areas shortly be handled considering limited investment by PLN finally to accelaret the increase of electrification ratio.
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL
SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
14
PLAN OF SUPPLY OF POWER AND
INVESTMENT NEED
� To encourage acceleration in power supply needs support from many aspects, either regulation aspect or technical aspect or commercial aspect such as national banking support as well as government guarantee.
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL
SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
� On the acceleration program of construction of plants 10.000 MW phase 2, especially on the geothermal plants development that reaches to 39% or 3.967MW of the private role (IPP) will get bigger starts from exploration phase to power plants construction.
15
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL
SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
Area PLTA PLTGU PLTP PLTU PLTG Total
Jawa 1,000 1,200 1,970 1,600 5,770
Outside of
Jawa204 360 2,007 1,712 100 4,373
Total 1,204 1,560 3,967 3,312 100 10,143
Portion 12% 15% 39% 33% 1% 100%
Acceleration Project of Plants 10.000 MW Phase 2
16
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL
SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
Acceleration Project of Plants 10.000 MW Phase 2
Total electricity production 170 GWhwith consumption from PLN and IPP
18
LEGISLATIVE ROLE IN NATIONAL
POWER SUPPLY
� Subsidy to allocate in form of primary energy and grid system availability.
� Demand Side Management which is determination of basic tariff of electricity.
� Main priority of State Enterprise in dealing with electricity company. In Law No.30 year 2009 on Electricity Section 4 : The implementation of power supply by government and local government is done by state enterprise and local area enterprise. Private enterprise, cooperative, and community self-reliant can be participated in power supply business.
� National electricity not only to illuminate but stimulates the new center of industry .
KESIAPAN PENYEDIAAN TENAGA LISTRIK NASIONAL
SAAT INI DAN DI MASA MENDATANG
.
ELECTRICITY SUBSIDY GROWTH
Rp.55,1 T
Rp.65,48 T
Rp.45,0 T
