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Colorado Economic and Fiscal OutlookLauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director
May 12, 2020
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The speed of the economic contraction is unprecedented and the path to recovery
remains uncertain
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Job Loss Relative to Peak Employment
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Unemployment Claims by County through April 25th
Average UI Claim Rate
Eastern 9.2%
Front Range 11.5%
Mountain 21.6%
Southern 11.3%
Western 17.4%
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Unemployment hits industries with lower wage earners
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What a recovery could look like
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General Fund revenue forecasts were revised significantly downward from March
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Estimated Revenue Impacts of CARES Act’s Tax Provisions
FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22
Individual Income Tax $75 million $222 million $41 million
Corporate Income Tax $11 million $50 million $27 million
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Declining revenues are driving a significant budget shortfall
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•
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Questions?
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Appendix
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Table 1: Colorado Economic Variables-History & Forecast
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Table 2: National Economic Variables-History & Forecast
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Table 3: General Fund Revenue Estimates by Tax Category
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Table 4: General Fund Overview
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Table 5: General Fund & State Education Fund Overview
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Table 6: Cash Fund Revenue Subject to TABOR
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Table 7: TABOR and the Referendum C Revenue Limit
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