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David Ledesma
Tel: + 44 1883 724743Mobile: + 44 794 114 3823
E-mail: [email protected]: www.south-court.com
Colombia LNG Supply Options
David LedesmaBogota
3rd
May 2011
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Introduc*on WhydoesColombianeedLNG OverviewoftheLNGvaluechain Overviewoffloa*ngregasifica*on Poten*alapplica*onofFSRUschemesinColombia CommercialstructuresforColombia
Agenda
PLEASENOTE:Thisinforma*onisprovidedbySouth-CourtLtdforusebyComisindeRegulacindeEnergayGas(CREG).The
informa*onisderivedfrompublicsourcesandfromtheopinionoftheauthorandnowarrantyismadeastoitsaccuracy.Siteselec*on,zoningandpermingarehighlyspecializedareasandarenotwithinthescopeofthisreport.Adetailedsiteselec*onstudymustbeundertakenwithanexpertinordertoiden*fysuitableportsandthenecessarytechnicalrequirementsforanLNG
importproject.Thispresenta*on,andthereportonwhichitisbased,onlygivesroughindica*onsfortypicalLNGimportschemes.EachLNGimportschemeisspecificallydesignedfortheloca*onandtomeetmarketrequirements.
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Introduc*on WhydoesColombianeedLNG OverviewoftheLNGvaluechain Overviewoffloa*ngregasifica*on Poten*alapplica*onofFSRUschemesinColombia CommercialstructuresforColombia
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Task1-Toiden*fyhighleveltechnologicalalterna*vesfor
theimportofLNGintoColombiaduringElNio
Task2-Todesignalterna*vesofbusinessschemesforthe
developmentoffacili*esthatwerestudiedintask1
Task3-Toarrangemee*ngsaboutschemesiden*fiedintask
2topoten*aldevelopers
Task4-Toevaluatetheinterestofpoten*aldevelopers.
ScopeofWorkagreedbetweenDavidLedesma
South-CourtLtddated1stMarch2011
4
3rdMay2011
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Introduc*on WhydoesColombianeedLNG OverviewoftheLNGvaluechain Overviewoffloa*ngregasifica*on Poten*alapplica*onofFSRUschemesinColombia CommercialstructuresforColombia
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Thesystemisseeminglybalanced Produc*on~1.09bcf/day Consump*on~0.83bcf/day Export~0.25/bcfday
TheproblemisduringElNio
WhydoesColombianeedsLNG?
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DuringElNiopowergeneraIonfromgasincreases
7
Powergenera*onfromgas
increasesfrom~22,570,000
KWh/dayto~52,500,000
KWh/dayduringElNio
Source:DatafromCREG,South-CourtAnalysis.Seemainreport
aachment2fordata.
AllmaterialsarecopyrightSouth-CourtLtd@April2011
!"
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Thechallengeistoensurebalancedgassupply
duringElNio
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Power producers manage El Nio gas
supply through committing to domestic gas
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NormalGasDemand
0
200
500
Gbtu/day
Gascommied
forbygenerators
butnottakenbut
paidformake-upperiod12
months
NormalGasDemand
NormalCase DuringElNio
Gastakenfromgas
producersunderagreedtake
orpaycontracts
240
Addi*onalgas
supplyfrominterrup*blegas
contracts
Un*l2012paymentsundertakeorpaycommitmentsarelimitedto25%ofthepaymentamount.From2013,this
percentagemayincreaseto80-90%thusincreasingliabilitytothepowerproducers
Interrup*blecontractsarefor20-40Gbtu/day
Source:South-CourtLtdresearch
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ByAugust/SeptembereachyearitsshouldbepossibletopredictthatElNio(andthereforelowerrainfall)willoccur
fromDecemberthatyear
TheperiodofElNiovaries11-19months Thepoten*alvolumeof250-350millionScf/dayofgas
importsfromLNGrepresents32-46LNGcargoesperannum
(i.e.onecargoevery8-11days)
ElNiooccursonaregularandreasonably
predictablebasis1/2
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Duringperiodoflowrainfallpowerproducerss*llneedtoproducepowerunderthetermsoftheFirmObliga*on
ReliabilityPayment.
If,duringperiodsofElNio,powerproducerscannotproducepower,thentheywouldcovertheshorallby: buyingpowerfromotherpowerproducers(gas,oilorcoal) buygasfromdomes*csupply buysgasfromLNGatahigherfeedgascostandchargea
spotmarketpriceforpower(itshouldbeabletorecoverall
orpartofitsaddi*onalenergyfeedstockcosts)
ElNiooccursonaregularandreasonably
predictablebasis2/2
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Introduc*on WhydoesColombianeedLNG OverviewoftheLNGvaluechain Overviewoffloa*ngregasifica*on Poten*alapplica*onofFSRUschemesinColombia CommercialstructuresforColombia
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LNGChainGasUse,CapexandUnitCosts
Capexes(matesbasedonan8mtpaproject
Upstream ShippingLiquefacIon RegasificaIon
GasUse
Capex
UnitCostn$/MMBtu
10-14%1.5-3.5%1-2%12.5-19.5%
$26bn$6-10bn$1-2.5bn$1-1.5bn$10-20bn
$1-3$3-4.5$0.8-1.5$0.4-0.8$5.2-$9.8
Total
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Introduc*on WhydoesColombianeedLNG OverviewoftheLNGvaluechain Overviewoffloa*ngregasifica*on Poten*alapplica*onofFSRUschemesinColombia CommercialstructuresforColombia
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WhyFloaIngregasificaIon
Land based systems are expensive Floating regasification facilities can be developed faster
than land based alternatives (1-2 years vs. 4 years)
Easier to secure permits Can locate floating regasification units close to market
(more difficult with onshore facilities)
Close to gas infrastructure and major gas consumers Close proximity to onshore support services
Minimise environmental impact due to offshore location No visual impact on and from the coastline
Lower cost and flexibility enables intermittent LNG supplyAllmaterialsarecopyrightSouth-CourtLtd@April2011
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UseofShipsasFSRUs(1/2)
Regasifiers are installed on a conventional LNG ship Regasification and ancillary equipment can be
designed and built into a new ship or installed as a
conversion of an existing vessel
New build 24-30 months Conversion ~ 12 months Times vary depending on shipyard
Not usually possible to use a converted vessel forstandard trade. FSRU conversions normally operate
as static regasification terminals when no cargoes arebeing received
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UseofShipsasFSRUs(2/2)
Typical base load capacity 300 to 500MMscf/d (2.3 to3.8mtpa) with peak throughput of 700MMScf/d
(5.4mtpa)
Ship is moored at an offshore location or in a portand connected to the gas grid by pipeline
When vessel empty it: either returns to the liquefaction plant to reload, or a second LNG ship comes alongside the moored ship and
trans-ships its cargo
The moored ship regasifies the LNG as required bythe market
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FSRUdischargesystems
Loadingsystemsareeffec*velythesame
asstandardvessels,thedifferenceishowgasissenttotomarket
Submergedturretunloadingsystem-Offshoredischargingsystemusingaturretandflexibleriserpipeline.
Vesselhasapurposebuiltturretrecep*onsystem
Thegasispipedtoshoreusingneworexis*nggaspipelines.
Thesystemideallyneedswaterdepthsof100+metres
Source:Excelerate
Source:Excelerate
GasjeysystemGasisdischargedviaasimplegasconnec*oninitsdeck
FSRUmoorsalongsidethejey Vesselconnectstohighpressurearmonajey NoLNGdischarged,sononeedforanyonshore
cryogenicpipelinesorequipment
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MainfeaturesofanFSRU
Source:EonRuhrgasOLTConferencePresenta*on
Source:Excelerate
Conversion
New-Build
ExcelerateEnergy(USA)-8FSRUsinopera*on
(138,000m3to151,000m3insize)
GolarLNG(Norway)-4FSRUsinopera*on(125,000m3to137,000m3insize)andoneinconversion
GdFSuez(France)-2FSRUsandoneFSUinopera*on
(145,000m3insize).
Otherplayersareplanningtoenterthemarket
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FSRUvaporisaIonsystems
Regasifica*onprocessrequirestheaddi*onofheat.Twosystems:
1. Closedloop Usesapor*onofthegas(LNG)onboardasfuelgaswhich
heatstheLNG.ForFSRUsthefuelgasusedis2%orhigherof
thegassendout Couldbeaddi*onalplanningandenvironmental
considera*ons(forexampleNOxandSOxemission)
2. Openloop Usesseawatersouseverylilegasasfuelforvaporisa*on,
typically0.5%orless(forpowergenera*on/pumping)
Openloopvaporisa*onmaynotbeallowableinsomeloca*onsduetoconcernsabouttheeffectsofwatercoolinginthevicinityoftheFSRUanditseffectsonmarinelife
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NewBuildorConversion?
Environmentalperformancedependson: Fuelconsump*on Boil-offrate
New-build:0.10-0.15%perday Conversion:0.20-0.25%perday Largervessel IncreasedemissionsCO2,NOx,VOC(vola*leorganiccompound)
Fuelconsump*on GuaranteedlifeofFSRU Drydockandmaintenancecost Refurbishmentcost Increasedriskonoldvessels Commercialarac*venessinthemarket
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CostsofNewBuildorConversion
Lookatthefullcostsnotjustthecharterhire.
Timetodevelop conversion2years new-build~3years
Yardsempty,maygetagooddeal Chartervs.capexcost Environmentalliability
Source: Hoegh conference presentations
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CommercialconsideraIons1/2
TwodifferentcommercialmodelsforFSRUopera*ons-emptyandleave&stayonsta*on.
1.EmptyandLeaveVesseldepartswhenemptytosailtoanLNGexportplantto
loadanaddi*onalcargo Duringtheperiodthatthevesselisoffjeynogasissuppliedto
marketmaynotbeacceptableissomemarketcircumstances
Periodofnon-supplycanbemi*gatedthroughhavingasecondvesselreadytodischargeimmediately
Line-packmayreducetheimpactofnon-supplyIfinterrup*onofgassupplyisnotacceptablethencanhaveatwoFSRUdischargesystem
bothvesselsmustbeFSRUsAllmaterialsarecopyrightSouth-CourtLtd@April2011
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CommercialconsideraIons2/2
2. StayonSta*onThevesseldoesnotleavetheimportloca*onandtakestheaddi*onalLNGfromanotherLNGvesselwhichdeliverstotheFSRU(throughaship-to-shiptransfer)
UseasingleFSRUinasemi-permanentconfigura*onwheretheFSRUispermanentlyconnectedtothegasdischargeloca*on
WhenemptytheFSRUisrefilledfromanothervessel(canbeastandardvesselnotanFSRU)
MostFSRUschemesareatajey.Theschemeunderconstruc*oninItalyisanoffshoreturretsystem
Offshoreshiptoshiptransferismorecomplexthanatajey
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OtherconsideraIons
FSRUschemeshavealowercapitalcostthanlandbasedterminalsandaregenerallyfastertodevelop
UseofonlyFSRUsinanLNGdeliveryscheme(asisrequiredbyallturretandgasjeyschemes)limitsthe
numberofvesselsthatcandeliverLNG MostLNGissoldex-shipsowouldreducedLNGsupplyop*ons Stayonsta*onschemeshavethereforebeenpreferred Nosetrulesoncommercialandtechnicalconfigura*on
Schemesaredesignedfortheloca*onnoonemodel
Mustgetthenecessarytechnicaldesignandadviceapplicabletotheprojectandloca*on
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ApplicableRules&RegulaIonscoverall
aspectsofthefloaIngunit
Source:DetBureauVeritas(DNV)conferencepresenta*ons
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ApplicableRules&RegulaIons
CoastalStateRegula*ons Fromboundaryofstatetointerna*onalwaters
FlagStateRegula*ons Vesselsmustcomplywithsafetyregula*onsofthemari*me
authorityoftheFlagState
FSRUdonotneedtocarryaflagunlessrequiredbycoastalstateorwhenininterna*onalwaters
ClassRules Flagstaterequiresclassifica*on
IMO(Interna*onalMari*meOrganisa*on)Conven*ons SeveralIMOdocumentsthatareapplicabletooffshoreLNG
terminals
Owner/OperatorSpecifica*ons SIGGTO,OilCompaniesInterna*onalMarineForumetc.
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DNV*KeySafetyAspectsandssues
Loca*on&SeaCondi*on TypeofVessel&ContainmentSystem MooringoftheFacility AccessforExport/ImportVessels(tugs&pilotage) MethodofTransferofCargo(OffshoreLNGoffloading) TypeofPlant,Liquefac*on/Regasifica*on Topsides&DeckConges*on SafetyIssues WhatiftheLNGsupplyvesselmustleavepar*allyloaded?Properdesignandsafety,noonesizefitsallapproach
DetNorskeVeritasorDNVisaclassifica*onsocietyorganizedasafounda*on,withtheobjec*veof"Safeguardinglife,property,andtheenvironment"
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Non-FSRUandothertechnologies
FSUFloa*ngStorageUnitisastandardvesselwithno
regasifica*onfacili*esonboard,usedforLNGstorage Minimummodifica*onsrequired CanusemorethanoneFSUforaddi*onalLNGstorage
LNGisdeliveredfromastandardvesseltotheFSUandstoredintheFSU Regasifica*oniscarriedoutonshoreoronthejey
LNGispumpedfromtheFSUtotheregasfacili*ies Increaseincomplexityascryogenicsonthejey Gasispumpedtothepipelinegridwhenrequired
Oneschemeisopera*onal(GDFSuezMejillones,Chile)andasecondunderconsidera*on(PetronasMalacca,Malaysia)
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Introduc*on WhydoesColombianeedLNG OverviewoftheLNGvaluechain Overviewoffloa*ngregasifica*on Poten*alapplica*onofFSRUschemesinColombia CommercialstructuresforColombia
31
PLEASENOTE:Siteselec*on,zoningandpermingarehighlyspecializedareasandarenotwithinthescopeofthisreport.Adetailedsiteselec*onstudymustbeundertakenwithanexpertinordertoiden*fysuitableportsandthenecessarytechnicalrequirements
foranLNGimportproject.Thispresenta*on,andthereportonwhichitisbased,onlygivesroughindica*onsofcostsfortypicalLNGimportschemes.EachLNGimportschemeisspecificallydesignedfortheloca*onandtomeetmarketrequirements.
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Construc*onoflandbasedterminal
NoFSRUshipchartercost Typicalcost$1billionfor
7mtpafacility
RegasificaIonopIonsforColombia1.Landbasedfacility
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Advantages Disadvantages
Longtermflexibilityandexpansionop*ons
Con*nuousandflexiblegassendout,Usesstandardshipsonly Varietyofregasop*ons(waste
heat,airvaporisa*on,openor
closedloop)
Veryexpensive Largelandrequirement Localpermitscouldbedifficult Fouryearbuilt*mea|erpermits
obtained.
Environmentalimpactofonlandfacility.
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Singleoffshorebuoy SimilarsystemtoExceleratesGulfGateway LNGisstoredandregasifiedonthevesselandsuppliedto
marketviathesingleturret
NeedtopayFSRUvesselcharterandop*oncost Cost
$100million+capexdependingonlengthofsub-sealine FSRUcharter=$5575millionperannum
RegasificaIonopIonsforColombia2.FSRUwithoffshoresingleturret
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Advantages Disadvantages
Lowconstruc*oncost Noorfewonshorefacili*es Localpermitsmucheasier Shorterbuild*me(2yearsorless) Notugrequirement
Gassupplyinterrupted CanonlyuseFSRUturretshipsonly
(standardshipscannotconnect)
higherchartercost
Turretshipswilllimitthesupplyop*ons
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SingleoffshorebuoywithstandardLNGshipsdeliveringtotheFSRUship-to-ship(STS)
TheFSRUstorestheLNGandregasifiestheLNGandsendsgastomarketviathesingleturret
SimilartoGolarLNG,LivornoOLTOffshore,Italy
RegasificaIonopIonsforColombia3.FSRUwithoffshoresingleturretandship-to-shipLNG
transferfromthedeliveryvesseltotheFSRU
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SubseaGas
Pipelineto
Shore
Regas&
Send-out
LNGcarrier
LNG
FSRU
Source:MarineServiceGMBH
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LivornoOLTOffshore,taly(Eon/Golar)
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Source:OLTToscana
GolarFrostiscurrentlyundergoingconversiontoFSRUservice.
5bcmaopenloopregasifica*on Incorporateanewfixed
turretgasdischargesystem
andisalsoequippedwith
LNGloadingarmson-board
(firstvesselofthisdesign)
TheFSRU,onceinservice,willbemooredtotheseabedviatheturret
dischargesystemthroughwhichgas
fromtheFSRUwillbedischarged
LNGwillbedeliveredtotheFSRUviatheon-boardLNGloadingarms
fromthedeliveringshipwhichwill
moordirectlytotheFSRU* i.e.turretcannotdisconnectandstayspermanentlyfixedAllmaterialsarecopyrightSouth-CourtLtd@April2011
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Cost $100million+capexdependingonlengthofsub-sealine Higheropera*ngcostscoststomonitorFSRUloca*on FSRUcharter=$5575millionperannum
RegasificaIonopIonsforColombia3.FSRUwithoffshoresingleturretandship-to-shipLNG
transferfromthedeliveryvesseltotheFSRU
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Advantages Disadvantages
Lowcost Noorfewonshorefacili*es Localpermitsmucheasier Shorterbuild*me(2yearsorless) LNGdeliveryusingstandardships
NotallshipoperatorswillbewillingtodelivertoSTS
STScouldlimitsupplyop*ons Requiresverybenignmarine
environment
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Twinoffshorebuoys SimilarsystemtoExceleratesNorth-EastGatewayand
GDFSuez/HoeghLNGNeptune(bothoffshoreN.E.USA)
LNGisstoredandregasifiedonthevesselandsuppliedtomarketviathesingleturret
Twoturretsensureconsistentsupplyofgastomarket NeedtopaytwoFSRUvesselcharterandop*oncosts
RegasificaIonopIonsforColombia4.FSRUwithtwinoffshoreturret
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NorthEastGateway,offshoreBoston,USA
(Excelerate)
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Strengthened cargo tanks (to withstand sloshing)
On-board regasifiers Connector
TwinAPLturretarrangement Located20kmoffshore
Boston(USA)
Thetwinturretarrangementallowsacon*nuoussendoutofgasinto
theterminalssub-seapipelines
whenusedwithtwoFSRUsin
rota*on
Theterminalispermiedforclosedloopregasifica*ononly
Cameintoservicein2007Source:Excelerate
Source:Excelerate
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GdFSuezfirstentryintotheFSRUmarketswiththe
construc*onoftheNeptune
project,offshoreBoston(USA)
SamemethodasNorthEastGatewayi.e.atwinAPLturret
arrangementoffshore.
ToservicetheNeptuneprojectGdFSuezalsoorderedtwonew
FSRUships,theNeptuneand
theCapeAnn,whichcameinto
servicein2009&2010.
Neptune,offshoreBoston,USA(GDFSuez)
39
Source:GDFSuez
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Cost $150million+capexdependingonlengthofsub-sealine Higheropera*ngcostscoststomonitorFSRUloca*on FSRUcharter=$110150millionperannum
RegasificaIonopIonsforColombia4.FSRUwithtwinoffshoreturret
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Advantages Disadvantages
Lowconstruc*oncost Noorfewonshorefacili*es Localpermitsmucheasier Shorterbuild*me(2yearsorless) Notugrequirement
Havetopayop*on/charterfortwovessels
CanonlyuseFSRUturretshipsonly(standardshipscannotconnect)higherchartercost
Turretshipswilllimitthesupplyop*ons
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Singlejeyheadwithgasdischarge Teesideterminal(UK)istheworldsfirstuseofanFSRUin
ajeytypedischargearrangement
FSRUbringstheLNGtothejeyandLNGisstoredandregasifiedontheFSRU Gasissuppliedtomarketviahigh-pressurepipe Shorebasedfacili*escanincorporatenitrogeninjec*onor
liquidsextrac*on
RegasificaIonopIonsforColombia5.FSRUonJey
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TheTeessideterminalwasbuiltintheriverTees(NorthEast
England)viatheconversionofan
exis*ngjeytoFSRUuse
TheFSRUmoorsatthejeyanddischargesitscargoasgasviagasdischargearmsmountedonthe
jeyinclosedloopmode
TeessideJeyTerminal,UK(Excelerate)
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Source:Excelerate
OnceemptytheFSRUleavestheloca*ontoallowthenextFSRUtodeliver
Theterminal(shoreside)alsofeaturesnitrogeninjec*onequipmentinordertoadjustgasqualitytomatchUKspecifica*ons(UKgasspecifica*onrangesarerela*velynarrow)
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Cost $50-100million+capexdependingonwhetheranexis*ngjey
canbeused
Higheropera*ngcostscoststomonitorFSRUloca*on FSRUcharter=$55-75millionperannum
RegasificaIonopIonsforColombia5.FSRUonjey
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Advantages Disadvantages
Lowcost(canuseexis*ngjey) Shortbuild*me(18months
possible)
Gassupplyinterrupted RequiresFSRUshiponly
(standardLNGshipcannotconnect) UseofFSRUvesselwilllimitthe
supplyop*ons
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SinglejeyheadwithgasdischargeandLNGtransferlines StandardLNGvesselbringstheLNGtothejey LNGistransferredtoanFSRU LNGisstoredandregasifiedontheFSRU Gasissuppliedtomarketviahigh-pressurepipe
RegasificaIonopIonsforColombia6.FSRUJeywithFSRUonstaIon
SubseaGas
Pipelineto
Shore
Regas&Send-out
LNG
carrier
LNG
FSRU
44
Source:MarineSe
rviceGMBH
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Petrobras,terminalsponsor,commissionedPecem(NEBrasil)terminalin2008
Usesanexis*ngjeythathasbeenmodifiedtoacceptanFSRU
anddeliveringshipinaside-by-
sideacrossthejeytypearrangement
FSRUGolarSpiritismooredsemi-permanentlyanddischargesgas
viatwogasdischargearms
mountedonthejeyhead FSRUisconnectedvia3LNG
loadinglinesthatinastandard
configura*on
Pecem,Brasil(GolarSpirit)
45
Source:Petrobras
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Petrobras,terminalsponsor,commissioned5.1Bcmaterminal
in2009
Usesapurposebuiltnear-shore(islandtype)jeyhead
arrangement Jeyheadisoffshoreandsubject
tomari*meregula*ons
GasfromtheFSRUdischargesviathegasdischargearmsonthe
jeyheadandissenttothegasgridviatheconnec*ngsubsea
pipeline
GuanabaraBay,RiodeJaneiro,Brasil(GolarWinter)
46
TheExcellenceTransferringItsCargotothe
GolarSpiritinGuanabaraBay,RiodeJaneiro,Brazil
Source:Petrobras
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TheMinaAlAhmaditerminal,originatedbyKuwaitPetroleumCompany,usesanexis*ngjeymodifiedto
acceptFSRUs
LNGisthendischargedfromthedeliveringshiptotheFSRUviaaseparatebankofLNGdischargearmsandcryogenic
pipelinestotheFSRU
Gasisdeliveredtomarketviahighpressuregasline
MinaAlAhmadi,Kuwait(Excelerate)1/2
47
Source:Excelerate
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29
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