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Collapse
ASystemsPerspectiveDr.DavidGould
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ComplexSystems
Acomplexsystemisagroupof“agents”existingfarfromequilibrium,interactingthroughpositiveandnegativefeedbacks,forminginterdependent,dynamic,evolutionarynetworks,thataresensitivedependent,fractionallyorganized,andexhibitavalanchebehavior(abruptchanges)thatfollowpower-lawdistributions.
Fichter,L.S.,Pyle,E.J.,&Whitmeyer,S.J.(2010).StrategiesandRubricsforTeachingChaosandComplexSystemsasElaborating,Self-Organizing,andFractionatingEvolutionarySystems.JournalofGeoscience Education.58(2)
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TheEnvironment(forSocialSystems)Acomplexnetwork
Economy
Technology
PhysicalEnvironment
Society
Gov’t /PoliticalLegal
Competition
YouYourCommunityYourOrganization
YourCitySociety
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AComplexSystemsModel
Material,Information,Energy(MIE)
Thresholds(tippingpoints)
Environment
Time
Space
Opportunities(positiveperturbations)
Threats(negativeperturbations)
System
SystemCharacteristics.Resilience/vulnerability.Competition/cooperation.Emergence/selforganization.Adaptation/learning.Informationprocessing.Patterns
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ComplexSystemsModel
Networks
Boundary
Rules
Resources
EffectorsDetectors
Feedback
Inputs Outputs
Boundary
EmergenceAdaptation
Processes
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ComplexSocialSystemsModel
Networks
Boundary
Rules Resources
EffectorsDetectors
Feedback
Inputs Outputs
Boundary
Emergence
Adaptation
STs
PTs
OPs
Resources
Single/DoubleLoopLearning
Processes
Goals
Patterns(LTG,…overtime)
Structures
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Collapse
• Systems,includingsocieties,mayfailorcollapseforoneoracombinationofavarietyoffactors
• Externalperturbationsmayaffecttheflowofmaterial,information,andenergy(MIE)toorfromasystem.
• Externalperturbationsmaybethreatsoropportunities
• ThreatsmayoverwhelmorchangeasystembydisruptingtheflowofMIE
• Opportunitiesmayofferapossibilitytoimproveasystem.
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Collapse
• Strengthsandweaknessesareinternaltoasystem
• Weaknesseswithinasystemmaycauseittofailorcollapse,suchasafailureorinabilitytorespondtoathreat
• Asystemsstrengthsmaystopathreat,mitigateathreat,orhelpasystemadapttoathreat.
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SystemCollapseorFailure
Economy
Technology
PhysicalEnvironment
Society-at-Large
Gov’t /PoliticalLegal
Competition
Society
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Collapse(cont)
• Fromthesystemsmodel(previouspage).– Humansocialsystemsaredependentontheirenvironment
– Humansocialsystemsaredependentonresourcesupplies(withinarange)ofMIE
– Changes(perturbations)toMIEsuppliesflowingintoasystemoroutofasystemmayresultinthreatsoropportunities
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Collapse(cont)• Exogenousperturbationstoasocialsystemmaycauseittofailorcollapse– PhysicalEnvironment(climatechange,pestsdisease,viruses,pollution,wildfires,earthquakes…)
– Economics(Thelawofdiminishingreturns,disruptionofMIEfromsuppliers,recessions,depressions,…)
– Competition(war,conflict,disruptionofMIE,)– Technology(unabletokeepupwithadvancedtechnology)
– Society-at-large(disruptionofMIEflows)– Political(war,conflict,terrorism,….)
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Collapse(cont)
• Endogenousperturbationswithinasocialsystemmaycauseittofailorcollapse– Technology(insufficienttomeetsocial,economic,orenvironmentalrequirements)
– PhysicalEnvironment(infrastructurefailuressuchastheelectronicgrid,roads,bridges,water,..;unabletokeepupwithdemands,…
– Society-at-large(apathy,unableorunwillingtolearn,rejectionofscienceandevidence,extremeinequality,lackoftalentandexpertise,inabilityorwillingnesstolead,inabilityorunabletorespondtothreatsorrisks…)
– Political(civilwar,conflict,domesticterrorism,….)
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Top5GlobalRisks2020GlobalRisksReport(weforum.org)
1. ExtremeWeather2. ClimateActionFailure3. NaturalDisasters4. BiodiversityLoss5. Human-madeEnvironmentalDisasters
InTermsoflikelihood
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Top5GlobalRisks2020GlobalRisksReport(weforum.org)
1. ClimateActionFailure2. WeaponsofMassDestruction3. BiodiversityLoss4. ExtremeWeather5. WaterCrisis
InTermsofImpact
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Today’sTopRisk
Coronavirus• CoronaviruswasrecognizedinJanuary2020,perhapsearlierinthe
USandaftertheWorldEconomicForumpublishedtheirGlobalRisksReport.
• Andcoronavirushasnowpushedtheworldintoaneconomicrecession/depressionasofApril2020.
• Yet,climaterisksasdescribedbytheWorldEconomicForumandnotgoingaway.
• Thisleadstoa“perfectstorm”ofthreeexistentialthreats:apandemic,aneconomicdepression,andclimatechange.
• AsofMay2020,theUSfederalresponseisessentiallymissing,whilesomestateshaveengaged.
• AsofMay2020,theoutcomeofaddressingtheserisksisuncertain.
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Essentiallysystemsfailorcollapsewhenasystem-threateningproblemcannotbesolved.
- AdaptedfromArnoldToynbee
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Collapse(overshoot)
Time
CarryingCapacity
Consum
ption Overshoot
Overshootoccurswhenapopulationexceedsthecarryingcapacityofitsenvironment.Note:Thecarryingcapacityvariesdependingonfactorsintheenvironmentsuchastheavailabilityoffoodandwater,climatechange,….
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SocialOvershoot
Time
SocialAdaptation
Change
Overshoot
Socialovershootoccurswhenenvironmentalchangeexceedstheabilityofasocialsystemtoadapt.Note:environmentchangeincludeseconomic,technological,physicalenvironmental,government/military/legal,and/orcompetitivechanges.Whatmighthappenwhensocialadaptationcannotkeepup?
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ForceFieldAnalysisExample
System
(Society)
ForcesforChange ForcesAgainstChange
ClimateResourceDepletionTechnologyEconomyGovt/Military/LegalCompetitionConflict
ResistanceResilienceProblemSolvingCapabilityMitigationAdaptation
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ComplexSocialSystemsBehaviorPatternsOverTime
Perturbingasystemresultsinoneoffourpossiblesystemoutcomes:equilibrium,periodic,chaotic,orcomplex.Note:equilibriummeansstable,possiblybecauseofsystemsfailure/collapse
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Theories• JaredDiamond– Asdescribedinhisbook,Collapse.Nonsustainable exploitationofresources,climatechange,diminishingsupportfromfriendlysocieties,hostileneighbors,andinappropriateattitudesforchange.]
• JosephTainter– Societiesexhausttheirowndesignsandareunabletoadapt
• ArnoldToynbee– “Theyfindproblemstheycannotsolve.”
• ThomasHomer-Dixon– EROIorenergyreturnedonenergyinvested.Societiesneedenergytomaintainitandifthecostsofobtainingadditionalsourcesbecomestooexpensive,societywilldecline…
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Collapse
Somethoughtsatthispoint..
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References
• Adizes,A.(1999).Managingcorporatelifecycles.Paramus,NJ:Prentice-Hall.
• Diamond,J.(2013).Collapse:Howsocietieschoosetofailorsucceed(Revisededition).NewYork,NY:Penguin.
• Tainter,J.A.(1990).Thecollapseofcomplexsocieties.NewYork,NY:CambridgeUniversity.