An inconvenient truth! The Hell Niño in South Africa
Coleen VogelGlobal Change and Sustainability Research Institute
University of the Witwatersrand
Projected change in annual average temperature (°C) under a high climate change scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The median of an ‘ensemble’ of six climate model projections are shown in each case. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR
Projected change in total annual rainfall (mm), under a high climate change (i.e., low mitigation) scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The maps show the median of an ensemble of six climate models. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR
© CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za
Annual change in extreme rainfall events over southern Africa (2070-2100 vs 1975-2005)
• Units: change in the annual number of events per grid box
• Extreme rainfall events are projected to increase over most of southern Africa
• More intense thunderstorms projected to occur over eastern SA
Engelbrecht et al. (2010)
Science – society interactions: The case of South Africa
• Long and extensive science on climate change and climate variability
• Strong policy focus (dating back to early 1900s)
• Interesting ‘policy context’ (in early 1990s) that had the potential to fundamentally shift ‘science imaginaries’ on drought.
Major climate / policy efforts in South Africa (after: Vogel, Colvin and Scharfetter, 2014)
Science – society interactionsNational Consultative Forum on Drought• Severe and extreme ENSO in region early 1990s• ‘Perfect storm’ – co-occurring political change and
climate stress• CODESA (Convention for a Democratic South
Africa) national-level process influenced by strong activists shaping the Drought Forum
• Evolution:• Drought forum – rural development forum –
reconstruction and development action.
Examples of various documentary records of the Drought Forum(Source: Various)
Fast forward to 2014-2016
1. Knowledge about climate change science and climate variability strong (e.g. science knowledge).
2. Generation and use of such knowledge - the roles of scientists, policy makers, practitioners, civic society and ‘brokers’ in research, adaptation and planning still located in silos of action
3. “Linear model” – business as usual (see Appendix 1 of paper).
Example of current response(extract from SAWS/ACCESS response, Nov.
2015).
Policy & decision-making
Climate Change
research
Policy & decision-making
Climate Change
research
Policy & decision-making
Climate Change
research ?After Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000
Transdisciplinary Co-design & Co-production Model
(After: Future Earth and Cornell et al., 2013)
Messy reality needing variety of engagement processes (courtesy J. Colvin)
Multiple stakeholders, actors and stake/actor holdings
Controversy of knowledge claims
Complexity of ecological – societal
relationshipsUncertainty about current
state and predictions
Recognising the ‘messiness’ and complexity of situations:
“The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes” Marcel Proust
Acknowledgements
• Various inputs e.g. IPCC scientists• Various inputs local scientists, activists and
government actors from the past and present!• Thanks to Scholes et al and various others for
graphics and figures.