Download - Climatechange India
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India - Climate Change and Food Security
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NH RaoNational Academy of Agricultural Research
Management, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad
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outline
Climate related changes
Temperature (averages and extremes)
Precipitation (averages and extremes)
Intensity, frequency, duration, location of extreme
weather events
Sea level rise
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations
projections
implications for food security
policy
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Changes in temperature
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual
SEASONS
TEMP.TREND
inC/100yrs
Regional Variations in Max Temp Trends
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
West Him. North West North
Central
North Eas t West
Coast
East Coast Interior
Pen.
Max Temp Trends
T increase for India ~0.5 C/100yr(1901-2007); 0.2 C/10yr (1971-2007)
Both Max and Min T are increasing
Max T increase is at a faster rate Winter months show larger
increase
West coast, North East andWestern Himalayan show largerincrease
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Changes in rainfall
Low & Moderate events (10cm)
V. Heavy events (>15cm)
No long-term trend in all-India meanMonsoon Rainfall since 1871
Epochs of above/below normal monsoonactivity with a periodicity of approx. 30 yrs(current period - below normal epoch)
Changes in rainfall characteristicsincrease in frequency of high rainfall events
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share of GHG emissions
Indias share:
1990 2000
Source : Sharma et al, 2006
Greenhouse gas emissions, 2004 estimates (million mt, CO2e)
CO2 CH4 N2O PFC HFC SF6 Total
World 28,485 6,408 3,286 108 381 60 38,726
India 1,222 548 71 3 8 2 1,853(5% of total)
Indian 0 317 58 0 0 0 375 (20% of Indian)
agriculture Source: IFPRI, 2009
GWP of CH4 : 25 times CO2 ; GWP of N2O : 298times CO2
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status of climate models
PRECIS
source: Rupakumar et al, 2006
observed
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Projections (2071-2100)
Temperature Rainfall
by end of 21st century: rainfall increase by 15-40%
mean annual temperature increase by 3C to 6C.
maximum increase over northern India.
more warming over: land; winter, and post monsoon
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climate change and food security assessment
crop
models
crop models+
farm/regionaldatabases
+GIS
Crop models+
farm/regional
databases+GIS
+vulnerabilityassessments
Fig source: Ingram etal, 2005
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factors affecting productivity
rising temperature
decrease in length of growing
period
monsoon dependence
increase in rainfall offset by risein temperature
link with water security
increase in water resources
in most river basins
increased variability because
of increased rainfall variability,
floods/ droughts
Acute physical water
scarce conditions
Constant water
scarcities and shortage
Seasonal / regularstressed conditions
Rare water shortages
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impacts on productivity
Source PK Aggarwal, 2008
productivity decrease due to increase in temperature and decrease inwater availability (especially in Indo-Gangetic plains).
greater loss in rabi ; every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheatproduction by 4-5 million tons.
increased climatic extremes- droughts and floods- lead to increased
production variability
increased fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; leading
to higher emissions
loss of 1.5 million tons of milk by 2020 in business as usual scenario
increasing sea and river water temperatures affect fish breeding,
migration, and harvests
effects on microbes, pathogens, and insects
quality of several commodities could change, e.g basmati rice,
medicinal and aromatic plants
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Food UtilizationNutritionalValue
Social ValueFood safety
Food AccessAffordabilityAllocation
Preference
Food AvailabilityProductionDistribution
Exchange
Stability of production base
determinants of food security
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household: food insecurity in India
Fig source: MSSRF
Food security assessment
Additional undernourisheddue to climate change
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Adaptation options
Agronomy: time of planting, changes in inputs, timing, water
management New crops/varieties: drought/heat resistant
diversification
With Adaptation
T (+ 2C) + precipitation (+) 7% GDPAgri 7%
T (+ 3.5C) + precipitation (+ 15% ) GDPAgri 2.5%
Poverty Hunger (Kavikumar, 2002)
The adaptive capacity of small and marginal farmers is severelylimited by dependence on natural factors, access to inputs, andinstitutional support systems
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% Change in Cereal Yield vs. Temperature Change(with/without adaptation) from 69 Modeling Studies
Synopsis low latitude cereal yields < current, even
with modest warmingprojected reduction for South Asia (20%)
can challenge food security with increasing climate variability and
frequencies of extreme events, crop
yield losses can occur at smaller meantemperature increases
Climate change likely to affect farmers notby gradual change in climate conditions,but by changes in frequencies of extremes(droughts, excessive rainfall, heat stress)
A change in climate variability is worsefor crops than slow, gradual climatechange
(source: Easterling 2005)
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IPCC Definition
Vulnerability is the degree to which a systemissusceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverseeffects of climate change, including climate
variabilityand extremes.
Vulnerability is a function of the character,magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation
to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and itsadaptive capacity
Vulnerability
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Vulnerability assessment
(Example: OBrien et al 2004)
1. Adaptive capacity =
f (biophysical, socioeconomic, technical factors)
- biophysical factors: soil depth, quality; groundwater
- socioeconomic factors: literacy, gender equity,alternatives
- technical factors: irrigation, infrastructure
2. Sensitivity to stress (dryness, monsoon dependence)
3. Exposure (from climate scenarios)
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Low adaptive capacity: districts in
Bihar (Jharkhand), Rajasthan,
Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh,Maharashtra, Karnataka
Biophysical
vulnerability
Social
vulnerabilityTechnical
vulnerability
Adaptivecapacity
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Climate sensitivity
1961-90 With exposure:
2x CO2
High Climate Sensitivity: districts in Rajasthan,
Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and
Uttar Pradesh.
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Indian agriculture - current vulnerability to FutureClimate Change
Hot spots: districts inJharkhand
Rajasthan
Gujarat
Northern Maharashtra
Madhya Pradesh
Follow up:
Targeted studies at village level
in above districts to validate or
identify barriers at local level
Useful for assessing relative distribution ofvulnerability to climate change at district level
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Rice cultivation
23%
Manure
management
5%
Emission from
soils
12%
Enteric
fermentation
59%
Crop residues
1%
Mitigation: which sectors contribute more to GHGemissions
Source PK Aggarwal, 2008
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Mitigation strategies
Crop management: plant breeding, nutrient management, watermanagement, rice management, land use change, agroforestry,
Grazing land management
Management of Soil organic matter
Restoration of degraded lands
Livestock management: feed management, dietary additives,animal breeding
Waste management
Bio-energy
Carbon sequestration soil as carbon sink zero tillage,conservation tillage
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Adaptation vs mitigation issues for agriculturalresearch
Adaptation
focus on crop breeding and management responsesclimate change is global, whereas adaptation is intensely local
significant uncertainties in scaling down model scenarios to local scales
adaptation is seasonal and usually considered at 3 to 20 year time horizons,
whereas climate change scenarios are for far future, 2050 or 2100
relevance of many current adaptation studies is therefore uncertain
Mitigation
agriculture as part of solution to climate change problem
BMPs can significantly reduce emissions (intermittent irrigation and drainage
reduces methane emissions by 40%; conservation tillage, fertilizermanagement, livestock feed improvements can reduce GHGs)
reduced GHGs can earn carbon credits (can be offset against subsidies)
needs better understanding of processes and high traceability of BMPs
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Institutional arrangements in India
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ICAR Network on Climate Changeand Agriculture: Thematic areas
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A Network on Climate Changeand agriculture launched in2004 for studies on impactassessment, adaptation andmitigation options
Current strength:
23 institutes
> 100 scientists
more planned
ICAR Network on Climate Change and Agriculture
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Thank You