Climate ChangeMichael Gluck,Regional AnalystOMNR
Presentation Outline
The ProblemThe Reaction
Climate Change Convention Kyoto Protocol
CanadaOntarioMNR
The Greenhouse
Increased "greenhouse gases" are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) naturally occurring gases make up
less than one tenth of one per cent of the total atmosphere
acts like a blanket around the earth
The Problem
A Unique Problem
Climate Change is: global & long-term complex interactions:
climateenvironmenteconomicpoliticalinstitutionalsocialtechnological
The Global Carbon Cycle
Impacts?
Increases floods & droughtsIrreversible damage to human &
natural systems: hydrological agriculture & food security terrestrial, aquatic & marine
ecosystems human health & communities insurance & financial institutions
So What?
Wind and rainfall patterns may change.
Sea-levels may rise and threaten islands and low-lying coastal areas
Climate and agricultural zones may shift towards the poles
More famines and other catastrophesEnvironmental Refugees
Changes in Surface Run-Offfrom 1961-1990 to 2050
CAN WE HANDLE IT?
Scientists see a real risk that the climate will change rapidly and dramatically over the coming decades and centuries.
Likely to be a "global warming" of 1.5 to 4.5 C over the next 100 years
“Greatest Challenge facing the world at the beginning of the century”
Problems?If the consequences of a problem
are uncertain, do you ignore the problem or do you do something about it anyway? Response is expensive, complicated &
politcal Disagreement if problem exists
Not Another Problem!!
War, famine, AIDS, the ozone "hole", acid rain, loss of ecosystems and species ...
See the problem as an opportunity: new technologies & infrastructure more efficient production become healthier
The atmosphere is a shared resource, part of the "global commons".
It’s Not Fair
rich and poor nations of the worldequality a cornerstone of
sustainability
The Convention (1992)United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Recognises that there is a problem negotiated and signed by 165 states
in a little over two years roles for developed & developing
countries stabilize greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere
Sustainable development
Living the good life
“Somehow, mankind must learn how to alleviate poverty for huge and growing numbers of people without destroying the natural environment”
Developing and sharing environmentally sound technologies and know-how
What is sustainable development?
The Kyoto Protocol (1997)
Strengthens the UNFCCC6% reduction of 1990 levels for
developed countries by 2008-2012
roles for developed & developing countries
And at the last minute… forests?
Achievement
Reductions should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow: ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change; to ensure that food production is not
threatened; and, to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner.
Kyoto Mechanisms
Clean Development Mechanisms sustainable development
Joint Implementation of energy efficient technologies
Emissions Trading between developed countries
MITIGATION
Forests & agriculture… offer significant carbon mitigation potential conservation of existing C pools sequestration by increasing C pools product substitution
There is no single path!
Soil & Trees?
More Carbon in Forests?
Management practices that could reduce or reverse the current emissions of carbon from forests include: halt deforestation expand the area of forests, maintain or increase C stocks in existing forests more efficient harvest & greater use of wood in long-
lasting products substitute wood fuels for fossil fuels
What good is the sink?
Transfer carbon between the atmosphere and the biosphere as an offset to industrial greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments Uncertainty of sink potential Compliance Longevity Seen as an easy way out for Canada,
US & Japan
Canada & the World
Worst energy efficiency in developed world
Lack of political willingness to changeUninformed public A leader??
Canada
4th largest emitters per capita in the world
Why? Inefficient
transportation Consumption Poor infrastructure Subsidized gasoline
Canada’s Emissions
Source: National Climate Change Process Analysis & Modelling Group
14% increase since 1990
People
31% of Canada's GHG emissions produced by individuals and families, 45% from transportation 33% from space heating 7% from water heating 9% from appliances and lighting 6% from waste
HOW MUCH WILL CHANGE COST?
Social learning & innovation institutional change
No-regret policies: phase out market imperfections
subsidies & green accounting
achieve ancillary benefitsreduce pollutants & improve health
provide double dividendgreen taxes
Canada’s National Climate Change Process
1990 commitment to stabilize emissions1993-94 National Consultation
partially implemented weak measures2000 Action Plan
promoting fuel effiency possible underground storage of carbon dioxide reduce greenhouse gas emissions enhance carbon sinks in agriculture and forestry.
Canada’s National Climate Change Process
Nationally: Voluntary Challenge and Registry
Internationally Clean Development Mechanisms
(with CANDU reactors)
Joint Implementation using Canadian Technology
Emissions Trading a cornerstone of reductions strategy
Ontario
Disagreement with Ottawa over Climate Change Action
Smog kills 1,900 people per year in Ontario.ECO says we must do more
Ontario’s Strategy
Clean air actions Clean drive program
Clean energy hydroelectric
energy
EnforcementOpen electricity
marketsFocus on people’s
responsibility
Poor urban planning
100% cuts to public transportation
Conflicting government priorities
Focus on voluntary measures
MNR Action Plan
CommunicationsTree Planting for Private LandsImproving Carbon Sinks in Forest EcosystemsProtect our Forest EcosystemsBalancing the Carbon BooksCo-generation Potential Wetland ConservationFisheries Research
Afforestation Opportunities
Planting trees on marginal agricultural land may provide te best bet for carbon sequestration
What could happen?
What happened in COP-6?
Canada/US & Japan vs. Europe inclusion of sinks risky clean development
mechanisms emission increases developing world left out
COP 6 part II next year
Last words...
Climate change won’t go awayPartial inclusion of biosphere NOT
a solutionLearn more about Canada’s
PoliciesA TEST OF SOCIETY’S
COMMITMENT TO SUSTAINABILITY
Ways & Means for Mitigation
Suggestions
EducationFinancial Incentives - Motivation
FundsEcological tax reformBetter BuildingsGreen Transportation PlansRenewable Energy ProgramBetter landfills
Thanks