Climate Change – Global Warming Scenarios
Electricity Generation and Emissionsa 2050 Scenario
Hydro (16)
Electricity generation 2003 (TWh)
Gas (34)Brown Coal
(50)
Black Coal(128)
Greenhouse gasemissions 2003(550 Mt CO2-e)
Waste (11)
Land use (35)
Agriculture(97)
Industrial (32)
Primary energy supply
(104)
Transport(80)
Electricitygeneration
(190)
Electricity generation 2050 (TWh)
Notionalemissions
profile
Electricitydemand
Electricity demandwith improved
energy efficiency234 TWh
190 Mt CO2-e
2020
614 TWh
492 TWh
88 Mt CO2-eCoal (70)
Gas (24)Hydro (19)
Zero emissions electricity generation
(500)
2030
2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Generation Cost Comparisons
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Le
ve
lise
d C
os
t E
sti
ma
tes
( A
$ 2
00
6 /
MW
h )
Nuclear costs are for an established industry
Nuclear
Coal
Coal - Supercritical
Pulverised Coal Combustion +
CCS
Gas - Combined Cycle Gas
Turbine + CCS
Coal - Integrated
Gasification Combined Cycle
+ CCS
Renewables
High Capacity
Factor Wind /
Small Hydro
Solar PV
Solar Thermal / Biomass
Gas - Combined Cycle Gas
Turbine
CCS estimates are indicative onlyRenewables have large ranges and substantial overlaps
Main Steps in the Innovation Cycle
Global Emissions Trading Scheme
The Emissions Trajectory
The Forward Price Curve
Other (non trade-exposed emissions‑intensive) disproportionately affected industries
Permits to be auctioned
Sectors not covered (agriculture and land use in this example)
Trade-exposed, emissions- intensive industries (existing plants)
Mt CO2-e
Allocated free permits
National Emissions
Domestic emissions trading scheme cap
Stream of Permits
APP – collaborative adoption of APP – collaborative adoption of technologiestechnologies
13
Timeframe• Phase 1 – Foundations – years 0-1 (2007 to 2008)
– Finalise scheme design, establish emission reporting systems, determine long term aspirational goal, engage international partners
• Phase 2 – Establishment – year 2 (2009)– Pass relevant legislation, establish governance
structures (independent regulator and advisory panel), broaden international cooperation (focusing on countries considering emissions trading), rationalise state/territory programmes
• Phase 3 – Trading - years 3-4 (2010-2011)– Set short term targets, allocate permits, commence
trading in 2011, explore linkages with other countries
Allocation of Permits
Trade Exposed Emissions Intensive
Emissions Trading ReviewMembers
• Peter Coates Xstrata
• Tony Concannon Int Power
• Russell Higgins APT, RGL
• Margaret Jackson Qantas
• Chris Lynch BHP Billiton
• John Marlay Alumina
• John Stewart NAB
• Secretary PM & C
• Secretary Treasury
• Secretary Industry
• Secretary Environment
• Secretary Foreign Affairs & Trade
Exports
Indicative emissions intensity of electricity generation
(Figure 3 Page 135)