Download - Climate change
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Shahid Farooq
University College of Agriculture,Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan
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“One Day Seminar on “Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture” Layyah - 31-12-2010
Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture
Environment
Surrounding of anything that affects its activities is known as environment.
Components of EnvironmentHydrosphereLithosphereAtmosphere
Atmosphere
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Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place, with respect to the variables such as temperature, moisture, pressure etc.
Climate: Average weather. Statistical description of mean weather conditions over a period of several years, typically 2-3 decades.
Climatic elements: precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind velocity, phenomena such as fog, frost, and hail storms, and other measures of the weather.
Pakistan Climate Pakistan lies in the temperate zone. The
climate is generally arid to semi-arid, characterized by hot summers and cool or cold winters, and wide variations between extremes of temperature at given locations.
Pakistan has recorded one of the highest temperatures in the world, the hottest of which is recorded in Mohenjo-Daro, Sindh, 53.5 °C (128 °F) on 26 May, 2010 it is not only the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, but also the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded in the continent of Asia.
Our Climate is Changing During the last century, the
atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases have continued to rise as a result of human activities.
Global average surface temperatures have increased by about 0.6 °C.
Global average sea level has risen about 15 cm in the previous century and ocean heat content has increased.
“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities” (IPCC, 2001)
CO2 Concentrations and Global Average Temperatures Will Continue to Rise
• Pre-industrial level: 280 ppm
• Current level: 360 ppm
• Level in 2100: ~700 ppm with large uncertainty
Source: IPCC, 2001
Heat Trapping MechanismThe sunlight mainly consists of 3 types of
radiationsUltraviolet, Visible (PAR) and InfraredInfrared rays are heat rays and if trapped cause
heating of earth and its atmosphere.When IR are emitted from extremely hot bodies
like sun are of short wavelength and can’t be absorbed by CO2 and even glass sheet.
When IR are emitted from less hot bodies like earth surface or bodies present on earth, are of longer wavelength and can be absorbed by CO2 molecules and other gases present in the atmosphere.
Harmful UV rays are absorbed by Ozone layer and most of it don’t reach earth surface.
Green House EffectThe heating of earth’s atmosphere due to
absorption of IR radiations reflected from earth’s surface by green house gases in atmosphere. These gases are CO2, Methane, Nitrogen oxides, Chlorofluorocarbons, water vapors, Ozone etc.
CO2 57%Methane 12%Nitrogen Oxides 6%Chlorofluorocarbons 12%Water vapors and Ozone 5%
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343 W/m2
30%
Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role in
maintaining a life-sustaining environment on the Earth;
If there was no Greenhouse Effect, the average temperature of the Earth would have been -18oC (253°K) instead of the present 15oC;
Human activity is enhancing the natural Greenhouse Effect by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc;
It is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which is causing Global Warming and Climate Change.
Who Causes the Climate Change!!
We do!!!We send greenhouse gases to the
atmosphere.Industrial practices; cars, planes,
factories, electricity, and solid trash.Environmental practices; deforestation,
and pollution.
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
Why Climate is Changing???
DeforestationCultivation of landIndustrializationAutomobile revolutionUrbanizationFossil fuel combustionPopulation ExplosionRefrigeratorsChl0rofluorocarbons (CCl3F, CCl2F2) Rockets, Jets sent into space (Each rocket
releases 75-150 tones of Chlorine).
Role of Agriculture in Climate ChangeEmission of green house gases from cropsCultivation of landIntensive agriculture practicesUse of chemical fertilizersUse of PesticidesRespiration activitiesBurnings of straws, stubbles etc.Decomposition of Organic MatterAnaerobic rice cultivationLivestock activities
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70% of global N20 emissions from artificial fertilizers
50% of global methane emissions from rice paddies
Agricultural Sector
Contributes 20% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions
5% of global CO2
emissions from fossil fuel consumption and biomass burning
Natural Climate Variability
Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution
CLIMATE CHANGE
Global Warming
Increased Precipitation & its Uneven Distribution
Melting of Glaciers & Snow
Sea level Rise
Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather
Events
IMPACTS
Uncertainty in Water Availability
Decrease in Crop Yields
Newer perspective for sources of energy
Loss of Biodiversity
IncreasedHealth Risks
Spiraling Population
High pace of Industrialization
Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in
Industry & Transport
Deforestation for Agriculture and
Urbanization
Climate ChangeNatural + Anthropogenic
Future Impacts of Climate Change
Severe stress on natural ecosystemsExpansion of Earth’s desertsMelting of the polar ice caps and rise in sea
levelMore extreme weather eventsLoss of BiodiversityMovement of Traditional agriculture areasSpecies extinctionDecrease of human health and living standards
Future Impacts of Climate Change
Food ShortageHeavy floodsIncrease in salinity levelWater loggingDrought, Water shortageAcid RainsOzone Depletion
Millions at Risk (Parry et al., 2001)
15 September 2006 IEF climate conference 22
Impacts of Climate Change on AgricultureBeneficial effects (Lengthen the growing
season in cool areasLoss in yieldDisturbance of cropping patternsUneven distribution of precipitationDangers of floods causing loss of agriculture
cropsWater shortageOccurrence of droughtIncrease in salinityIncrease in water loggingStunted growth due to oxides of nitrogen and
fluorideIncrease in evaporation rate
Adversely affect crops in heat limited areasChange the life cycle of oilseeds and grainsMigration of weedsClimate change may alter the world's habitats
and ecosystems.Life depends on a delicate balance of rainfall,
temperature, and soil type. Global Warming could upset this balance and
seriously endanger many living things.Climate Change used to occur slowly, allowing
plants and animals to adapt to the new environment or move somewhere else. However, if future climate changes occur as rapidly as some scientists predict, plants and animals may not be able to react quickly enough to survive.
Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change
Increased variability of MonsoonMore rapid melting of Glaciers threatening
IRS FlowsShortage of irrigation water for agriculture,
water for industrial and domestic sectors. Increased risks of floods and droughts
Melting of Glaciers in Pakistan
Glaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total water storage in glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAF
Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB.
International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.
World Bank (2006): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.
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Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru,
1978
2002
GLOFS in Pakistan
As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach anytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:
property, farms, socio-economic infrastructure and livelihood of mountain people and downstream communities.
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There is an urgent need to Assess Pakistan’s glaciers, future water
resources and storage requirements in the wake of climate change threat
Take appropriate ameliorative measures well in time to avoid calamites.
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The Water Challenge: Conclusion
Food Security Challenge
Agriculture Systems in Pakistan
Irrigated Agriculture Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes
>80% to national production
Rained and Dry land Agriculture Contributes <30% to national production.
Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change
Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier melt in the wake of climate change
Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.
Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc
Impacts of Climate Change on Crops
Shortening of growing season lengthLoss in yieldHeat and water stress at sensitive growth
stages, e.g. flowering, grain initiation stagesIncreased pest/disease incidenceIncreased crop water requirements
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 1 2 3 4 5
Temperature Change (oC)
Whe
at Y
ield
(kg/
ha)
NorthernMountainous(Humid)
Northern Sub-Mountainous(Sub-humid)
Southern Plains(Semi arid)
Southern Plains(Arid)
Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistanyields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan
Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate Impacts
Evolution of new genotypes having tolerance against drought, heat and chilling injury,
Water wise cultivation,Aerobic rice cultivationImproved methods of fertilizer applicationReconsider the existing cropping patternsMinimum CultivationHigh efficiency irrigation systemsAvoid crop residue burningReforestation
Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate ImpactsFarm Management PracticesDiversify Crops (More perennial crops)Organic productionGrow restorative cropsEfficient land useDiversify enterprise (More livestock in farm)Land Conservation (Conservational tillage,
zero tillage)Water resources management (efficient
irrigation systems, construction of water storage bodies i.e., dams, ponds etc. to save extra water)
Saving Agriculture from Changing Climate Impacts
Policies matter!!!Construction of damsLining of water courses, Minors and CanalsLaser land levelingImprove N use efficiencyUse of bio fuelsMethane capture
Climate Extreme Events
Heavy floods, Droughts, Heavy precipitation events, Hailstorms, Dust storms, Cyclones, Heat /Cold waves
Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan
2010 Heavy floods in the country which has cause loss of billions of rupees of infrastructure, agriculture and economy.
2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208
mm occurred in 1977
2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperature
of 48 C was recorded on 9th June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June, 19292003 During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached 52°C
at Jacobabad on the 5th; normal highs in early June are near 44°C
2001 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July
Urban Flooding in Lai Nullah ( 23rd July 2001)
Flood Stranded People on the Highway
Land Degradation in Pakistan Water Erosion : 17% Wind Erosion : 8% Salinity and Sodicity : 9% Water logging : 5% Low organic matter (<1%) : 96%
Impacts on Land degradationLand degradation enhanced by climate change
due to Wind and water erosion, as a result of low
and high rainfallWater-logging and Salinity, as a result of
greater evaporation from land surface.
Arial and Soil Temperature of Different Sowing Times
Sowing time Arial Temp C0 Soil Temp C0
25 October 09 27 2310 November 09 23 2125 November 09 20 1910 December 09 21 1625 December 09 19 14
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9N
o.
of
day
s
25-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec
Sowing Date
Sehar-06
Fsd-08
Lassani-08
AS-2002
TD-1
Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on days to start germination
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
No.
of D
ays
25-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec
Sowing Date
Sehar-06
Fsd-08
Lasani-08
AS-2002
TD-1
Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on days to start tillering
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70N
o. o
f ti
ller
s
Sehar-06
FSD-08 Lasani-08
AS-2002
TD-1
Wheat genotypes
25-Oct
10-Nov
25-Nov
10-Dec
25-Dec
Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on Fertile tillers/m2
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000kg/ha
Sehar-06 FSD-08 Lasani-08 AS-2002 TD-1
Wheat genotype
25-Oct
10-Nov
25-Nov
10-Dec
25-Dec
Effect of wheat genotypes and different sowing dates on economic yield
Is It Too Late to Save Our Planet?!No it is not.We can:Plant Trees.Recycle thingsWalk, ride bikes instead of cars and buses.Save electricity and other sorts of energy.Read and Spread Awareness of Climate Change among
people.Use cars that save energy.Find safe energy sources like the solar energy, to replace
the fuel.Use Energy Star machines; those machines save energy.
What we can do???Reduce Green house gases emissionReduce our demand of energy inOur homesTransportIndustryRide bikes, walk and use less carsTalk to Your Family and FriendsPlant TreesUse Recyclable things
What we can do???When You Buy, Buy Cool StuffUse less water, save itUse less lights in householdWater wise cultivationLess intensive croppingBreed new heat tolerant and water saving
crop varietiesHigh efficiency irrigation systemsMinimum tillage
What we can do???Avoid burning of fossil fuelsUse water efficientlyBe green in your yardSeal and insulate your homeUse Renewable FuelsAct globally, eat locally
Thank you