![Page 1: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance
By
Mario Bidegain (Facultad de Ciencias – UR LA32/LA26)
Ines Camilloni (Facultad de Ciencias – UBA LA26)
AIACC Latin America/Caribbean Regional Workshop
26-29 May 2003, San Jose, Costa Rica
![Page 2: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
1. What are GCMs?
2. What GCMs outputs were selected from IPCC
DDC? 3. What variables were selected for this study?
4. Preliminary conclusions for southeastern South America
OUTLINE
![Page 3: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
What are GCMs?What they do?Simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations.
Growth in population, energy demand, changes in technological and land/cover
Greenhouse gases emissions
Atmospheric GHGs concentrations
Baseline and future climate projections
Energy-economy models
Carbon cycle and other and other chemical models
Climate models
![Page 4: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
What are GCMs?
What they work?GCMs are based on the known laws of physics describing the transport of mass and energy, depicting the global climate using a three dimensional grid over the globe.
![Page 5: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
What GCM outputs were selected from IPCC DDC?
SRES A2 forced runs: CCCMA, CSIRO, GFDL, HadCM3, NCAR-PCM
![Page 6: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
MODEL PERIOD
HADCM3 1950-2000
CSIRO-Mk2 1961-2000
NCAR-PCM 1981-2000
CGCM2 1950-2000
ECHAM4 1990-2000
![Page 7: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Region selected for this study
Southeastern Southamerica:
20° to 47° South 45° to 67° West
![Page 8: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
What variables were selected for this study?
Sea level pressure (as indicator of goodness of GCMsto reproduce the general circulation in the region)
Rainfall (mean monthly and annual values) and annual cycle)
Temperature (monthly mean and annual values)
![Page 9: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Spatial Correlation for Sea Level Pressure between GCMs outputs and NCEP reanalysis
meses
corr
ela
ció
n e
spa
cia
l
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
HADCM3CSIRP-Mk2CCCmaNCARECHAM4
- 7 5 - 7 0 - 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5- 5 5
- 5 0
- 4 5
- 4 0
- 3 5
- 3 0
- 2 5
- 2 0
![Page 10: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
What climate baseline scenarios for SLP the GCMs estimate?
P R E S IO N M E D IA A N U A L A L N M MP E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0
M o d elo H A D L E Y
P R E S IO N A T M O S F E R IC A A L N M MP E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0
F u en te : R ea n a lis is N C E P /N C A R
P R E S IO N M E D IA A N U A L A L N M MP E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0
M o d elo C S IR O
![Page 11: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Sea Level Pressure anomalies: GCMs vs.NCEP reanalysis
CSIRO-NCEP (1961-2000)
- 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5
LON GITU D
- 4 5
- 4 0
- 3 5
- 3 0
- 2 5
- 2 0
LAT
ITU
D
- 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5L ON GIT U D
- 4 5
- 4 0
- 3 5
- 3 0
- 2 5
- 2 0
LAT
ITU
D
HADCM3-NCEP (1950-2000)
- 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5
L ON GIT U D
- 4 5
- 4 0
- 3 5
- 3 0
- 2 5
- 2 0
LAT
ITU
D
ECHAM4-NCEP (1990-2000) NCEP (1950-2000)
![Page 12: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
What climate baseline scenario for rainfall the GCMs estimate?
P R E C IP IT A C IO N (m m /d ia )C S IR O A N U A L (P E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 )
P R E C IP IT A C IO N (m m /d ia )A N U A L P E R IO D O 1 95 0 - 2 0 0 0
N C E P /N C A R R E A N A L IS ISP R E C IP IT A C IO N (m m /d ia )H A D L E Y A N U A L (P E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0 )
![Page 13: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
-65 -60 -55 -50 -45
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
HADCM3 (1950-99)
GCMs rainfall anomalies (mm/day)
-65 -60 -55 -50 -45
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
CSIRO (1961-99)
-65 -60 -55 -50 -45
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
ECHAM4 (1991-99)
![Page 14: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Rainfall annual cycle: GCMs vs. Climatology1990 - 2000
ANNUAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION(LAT:-20 LON:-56.25)
0
2
4
6
8
10
J AN MAR MAY J UL SEP NOV
mm
/day
Hadley
Csiro
Echam
Clima
ANNUAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION(LAT:-27.5 LON:-56.25)
0
2
4
6
8
10
J AN MAR MAY J UL SEP NOV
mm
/day
Hadley
Csiro
Echam
Clima
ANNUAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION(LAT:-35 LON:-56.25)
0
2
4
6
8
10
J AN MAR MAY J UL SEP NOV
mm
/day
Hadley
Csiro
Echam
Clima
ANNUAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION(LAT:-35 LON:-63.75)
0
2
4
6
8
10
J AN MAR MAY J UL SEP NOV
mm
/day
Hadley
Csiro
Echam
Clima
ANNUAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION(LAT:-27.5 LON:-63.75)
0
2
4
6
8
10
J AN MAR MAY J UL SEP NOV
mm
/day Hadley
Csiro
Echam
Clima
![Page 15: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
T E M P E R A T U R A M E D IA A N U A LP E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0
F u en te : R ea n a lis is N C E P /N C A RT E M P E R A T U R A (°C )
H A D L E Y A N U A L (P E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0 )
What climate baseline scenario for temperature the GCMs estimate?
T E M P E R A T U R A (°C )E C H A M A N U A L (P E R IO D O 1 9 9 0 -2 0 0 0 )
![Page 16: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Global temperature change (2000-2100)
![Page 17: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Precipitation and Temperature Changes Argentina 9 GCMs (2070-99 vs. 1961-90)
![Page 18: Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56814d83550346895dbae1ea/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS
General Conclusion• Very good performance of GCMs in temperature and SLP, poor to
fair in rainfall (underestimation in the region), but improved performance respect to old GCMs versions
Future actions• 3 GCMs will be selected to construct climate scenarios
(HADLEY, ECHAM and CSIRO.• The selected variables will be: SLP (to estimate surface winds),
precipitation and temperature.• Statistical and/or dynamical downscalling, for selected locations,
will be applied to future climate scenarios.