Climate and Health: from research to policy and practice
Madeleine C. Thomson,
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
PAHO/WHO Collaborating Centre on early warning systems for malaria and other climate sensitive diseases
Bamako 17th-19th November 2008
How does climate impact on health?
Climate and health: two agendas?
RBM - MDGs 2000Malaria
Prevention and Control, Elimination and now Eradication
IPPC 4th Report 2007Climate Change Mitigation
And now Adaptation
Decadal Variability 27 %
Year to year variability 56%
Climate changes on all timescales
Long term trends 18%
Sahel 1900-2006
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
OBSLinearDecadal
Rainfall in the Sahel 1900-2006 – (Giannini pers. comm)
OCP
Areas and seasons where the seasonal rainfall is strongly controlled by sea surface temperatures and therefore potentially predictable
Botswana
Anon, is the climate right, IRI, 2005YEAR
200219981994199019861982
An
om
alie
s
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
CMAP quadratic
SST (*-1)
Standardised malaria
incidence
These results used at in SA Regional Epidemic Malaria Outlook Forum, Harare, 2004-2008
Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. (DaSilva, et al. 2004)
http://www.malariajournal.com/content/3/1/37
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Long term trend: 18% Variance
Inter-decadal variability: 27% Variance
Inter-annual variability: 55% Variance
???????
El Nino
Climate Change models
Bulletin of the World Meteorological Organization, October 2008
Climate For Development in Africa.
Creating a Climate Smart health sector
Key messages
New Research needed to • Understand climate and health interactions on relevant
policy and decision timescales• Understand the predictability of climate and health
outcomes on relevant policy and decision timescales Operationalisation of current research• Create partnerships between the climate and health
operational research community• Create an operational meteorological community capable
of responding to health/development needsImplementation of current operational research• Create a climate smart health community capable of using
climate information to improve health outcomes today while learning about the potential risks for tomorrow.